Inside the Huddle: Will Baylor Rally Around a Fresh Start Under Joe Klanderman?
SicEm365 Co-Editor Grayson Grundhoefer highlights his biggest keys to Baylor's road matchup against UCF.
Can the Baylor offense find some answers against a solid UCF defense?
This will be yet another challenge for Jake Spavital to game plan, with very little hope on the ground. That is a tough thing to scheme around, and it's caught up with Baylor multiple times this season. Personnel-wise, I would almost like to see much more Air Raid principles throwing the football around at times. I just don’t think Baylor has the receiver depth to make that work either. It is a tough spot to be in on offense. I do think DJ Lagway showing more willingness to run the ball could open up a path for a little more success on the ground in a few games, but we will see on that, as it didn’t really change a lot against Kansas, who has one of the worst run defenses in the Big 12.
UCF currently ranks eighth in the Big 12 in rushing yards allowed per game at 118 rush yards allowed per game and is fifth in yards per carry allowed at 3.21. This is going to pose a significant challenge for the Bears' struggling rushing attack.
On the flip side, I see reasons to believe that Baylor can put up some yards and points through the air. First, UCF doesn’t create a lot of havoc, as they are 13th in the Big 12 in sacks forced and tackles for loss forced. This could mean that even if Baylor doesn’t run it well, they still may be able to stay in second/third and manageable. Second, UCF has allowed at least 212 passing yards against every FBS team on the schedule, including four performances of over 257 passing yards allowed. TCU, Georgia State and Oklahoma State all threw for over 282 yards and completed over 61% of their passes. Finally, UCF has allowed 25 completions of 20-plus yards, which is 11th in the Big 12.
All of these stats provide reasons for optimism in the passing attack led by DJ Lagway, who is coming off a strong road performance against Kansas. He was by far Baylor’s highest-graded player according to Pro Football Focus, and it showed. He posted a season-high in completion percentage and rushing yards while helping the Bears score 24 points for just the second time against a Power Four team. He needs to continue taking steps forward, and there will be opportunities for him to have even more success on the road in Orlando.
Was last week a fluke, or is that who UCF is starting to become?
This team had lost two games in a row against Houston and Oklahoma State to fall to 3-3. It looked like the season was on the verge of falling apart, but they regrouped and knocked off an undefeated BYU team. The flukey part comes because BYU was coming off its biggest win in over 30 years against Notre Dame. The other flukey part is that UCF put together its best offensive performance of the season against a really good BYU defense. Against Power Four competition, UCF was averaging 77.25 rushing yards per game (2.64 per carry); the Knights posted 170 rush yards (4.1 per carry) against BYU. These things are certainly on my radar when trying to figure out what this game against Baylor will look like. Is it simply that UCF and its quarterback Keyone Jenkins are figuring it out without starting quarterback Alonza Barnett, or was it a fluke?
Will Joe Klanderman’s offense be able to slow down the Knights on the ground?
The Knights' offense goes as the run game goes. The Knights are 1-3 in games they have rushed for under 170 yards. The only win was against TCU in a game where the Horned Frogs turned the ball over four times. The other three include losses to Houston, Pitt and Oklahoma State. Duke Watson is the bell cow in the backfield as he has posted 577 yards and three scores while averaging 6.8 yards per carry. He is the engine for this offense. The other two backs, Taevion Saint and Landen Chambers, will also be involved, but Watson is the guy for them. The Knights finished with 170 yards on 41 carries with two scores on the ground against BYU. The Cougars have the second-best run defense in the Big 12.
Last week, the Baylor defense allowed 209 yards rushing to Kansas. This was the first game they have gotten torched on the ground, and a big part of it was the fact that Kansas ran the ball 56 times. Part of that was an inefficient Baylor offense, another part was 116 yards worth of penalties, and another part was an inability to get off the field at times on fourth down. It was a mess, but the Jayhawks were able to find success wearing down Baylor’s defense. This week will be another test, but one that the Baylor defense should be ready for based on previous results this season. If Baylor can't top the run, then they should be able to find success on Saturday.
What is the state of this Baylor team heading into this game?
It is easy to say that this team will be very motivated to win this game thanks to Joe Kladnerman’s leadership, but that is far from a sure thing. In fact, a lot of times when a head coach is fired, the team collapses toward the finish. That is usually the outcome, so we have to acknowledge the very reasonable possibility of that. On the flip side, I think this team could really rally behind the fresh start and put the Dave Aranda questions to bed. Now that there is an answer to that question, I think this team will have a chance to play more loose and free. Just refocus on winning games instead of the pressure to try to save someone's job. I think that will be helpful, but these things can go in the wrong direction in a hurry.
