Mel Kiper's Big Board: Ranking top 2018 NFL draft prospectsDec 15, 2017
Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst
We've reached college football bowl season, and we're one step closer to the 2018 NFL draft. In fact, the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is a month away, on Jan. 15.
In this edition of my Big Board for next year's draft, I've added the Heisman Trophy winner for the first time, plus a defender from the SEC who has really had a strong season. There are a few other changes from 1 to 25, too.
2018 NFL DRAFT
When: April 26-April 28
Where: Arlington, Texas
A reminder about my Big Board:
I'm projecting to the NFL. This is about much more than stats. My projections are based on size, athletic ability, statistics and what I hear from people around the league.
Speaking of size, what's listed here is provided by the schools. These numbers could vary greatly when players show up at the NFL combine. True height and weight matter a lot for almost every position.
Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore for the 2017 season.
1. *Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Previous rank: 1
Barkley is a lights-out athlete with tremendous balance, a great lower body and quick feet. He had 1,728 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns in the regular season, and he rushed for 1,496 yards and 18 touchdowns last season and 1,076 yards as a freshman. Barkley (5-foot-11, 230 pounds) also will help in the passing game. He had 47 catches this season after having 48 in his first two seasons at Penn State combined. I think he'll run under a 4.4 40-yard dash and test well at the combine. Barkley could be a top-five pick in 2018, and he's going to get an elite grade from me.
2. *Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
Previous rank: 4
Fitzpatrick (6-1, 203) has played corner and safety at Alabama, and I think he'll be a safety at the next level, though I'm not ruling out a fit at cornerback somewhere. The versatility is a plus, and coach Nick Saban loves him. Fitzpatrick is really a defensive coordinator's dream: a modern-day big corner who plays safety. He's versatile enough to line up in the slot and lock down receivers, but he can also be a center fielder. Fitzpatrick had eight interceptions in 2015-16 (including four that were returned for touchdowns), so he has elite ball skills. He isn't afraid to make a tackle, either, which is why I think he'll be a top-five pick in April.
3. Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State
Previous rank: 7
I wrote about Chubb's performance against Florida State earlier this season. He was dominant with two sacks and a forced fumble. Chubb (6-4, 260) could have entered the 2017 draft and been in the first-round discussion. He had 10.5 sacks and 21.5 tackles for loss last season after posting 5.5 sacks and 11 tackles for loss in 2015. Chubb shows good takeoff from the edge as a pass-rusher, and he has an excellent mix of speed and power. He had 10 sacks and 25 tackles for loss (tied for second in the FBS) in the regular season. Chubb is the top-ranked pass-rusher in this class, but he isn't on the level of Myles Garrett; I don't think we'll be talking about him as a potential No. 1 pick.
4. *Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
Previous rank: 2
I have Rosen over Sam Darnold for now, but it's close, and things could change between now and April. Coming off a stellar freshman season in 2015, Rosen struggled in 2016 and made only six starts before injuring his shoulder. He had a great start to the 2017 season and finished with 26 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. He missed a game with a concussion late in the season, however, and was pulled in the second half of UCLA's win over Cal "for precautionary reasons" after taking a few big hits. Rosen is expected to be back for the Bruins' bowl game against Kansas State. The 6-4, 218-pounder throws a great ball and has rare arm talent. There aren't many quarterbacks who can make the throws he does, and I expect the junior to be picked in the top five if he enters the draft. Check out a perfect back-shoulder fade from Rosen in the video clip above.
5. **Sam Darnold, QB, Southern California
Previous rank: 5
The rumblings about Darnold returning to school -- remember, he's only a third-year sophomore -- have lingered. He played better down the stretch, but it was an up-and-down season. He has thrown 12 interceptions and has lost seven fumbles (plus he fumbled three other times). His 19 turnovers are the most in the FBS. He had an outstanding 2016 season but just hasn't matched it. Now, I think Darnold has a chance to be special, and I believe in his talent long term. Darnold has a big frame (6-4, 225), makes quick decisions and is an accurate, natural passer. He completed 67.2 percent of his passes last season and ranked second in the nation in Total QBR (86.8), but he is down to 63.3 percent and 76.2 this season. If Darnold enters the draft, I think he and Rosen will be in the discussion for the No. 1 pick. But first Darnold has to get through a tough bowl matchup vs. Ohio State.
6. **Derwin James, S, Florida State
Previous rank: 3
James played only two games in 2016 after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee. The former five-star recruit was terrific as a freshman for the Seminoles, with 91 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. FSU has had a miserable season after losing starting quarterback Deondre Francois in the opener, but James is a real talent. The 6-3, 211-pounder has two interceptions with 11 pass breakups, and he's second on the team in tackles (72). There's a chance he will be the highest-rated defender in April's draft, but he doesn't have much tape, so scouts want to see how he tests at the combine. James has already declared for the draft and will skip the Seminoles' bowl game.
7. *Quenton Nelson, G, Notre Dame
Previous rank: 8
Nelson and Mike McGlinchey form the best left side of an O-line in college football. Both could be top-15 picks. At 6-5, 330 pounds, Nelson just causes destruction in the interior. I wrote last year that he was entertaining to watch, and you just don't say that about guards. He is a dominant run-blocker who is powerful at the point of attack and athletic enough to pull and get into space.
8. **Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
Previous rank: 11
I wrote about Ferrell's performance in November. He had five tackles for loss in the win over NC State, marking the second time in three games that he had at least that many tackles for loss. He was dominant in a 3.5-sack performance at Syracuse. He finished the regular season with 17 tackles for loss and 8.5 sacks. Ferrell is solid against the run and disruptive in the backfield, and he makes hustle plays. He came on strong as a redshirt freshman last season, with six sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss. At 6-5, 260 pounds, he has the size that makes scouts turn their heads, and he's quick off the edge. He's a prototypical 4-3 end in the NFL. As a third-year sophomore, Ferrell has a decision to make about whether to enter this draft. With another year of developing his pass-rushing moves, he could be in the mix for the top three overall. I'm looking forward to seeing Clemson play Alabama in January.
9. *Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson
Previous rank: 19
Clemson just keeps producing first-round picks, and you can see how much I like Ferrell. But don't forget about Wilkins. At 6-4, 300 pounds, he moves inside and outside for the Tigers. He is a Jonathan Allen-type lineman. He could be an end in a 3-4 defense or a 3-technique tackle in a 4-3. Wilkins had 3.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season, and he had 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss in the 2017 regular season. He also had 52 total tackles. He and Ferrell will be a tough test for the Crimson Tide's offensive line.
10. *Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
Previous rank: 12
With 161 catches and 14 touchdown receptions in his first two collegiate seasons, the cat-quick Ridley (6-1, 188) has been one of the nation's top wide receivers since he stepped onto the field. What I really like about him is his competitiveness. He's a nightmare to try to tackle in the open field. He torched Florida State's talented secondary in the season opener, with seven catches for 82 yards and a touchdown, and he had 55 catches and 896 receiving yards in the regular season, with potentially two more games to go. He's the 2018 draft's clear No. 1 receiver right now.
11. *Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Previous rank: 6
Allen (6-5, 233) is super raw, but he can really sling it. His numbers weren't great last season (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56 percent of his passes), and his numbers aren't great this season (13 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56.2 percent of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him. The Wyoming offense lost 47 touchdowns from last season's team, along with its center. I think Allen's numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players. He missed the Cowboys' final two regular-season games with a shoulder injury, but he plans to return for their bowl game. I said earlier this month that I think Allen will be picked in the top 10.
12. *Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
Previous rank: 15
I said before the season that I think Ward has a chance to be the next great Ohio State cover corner and first-round pick. He's polished. He didn't have an interception last season, but he plays the ball well and showed good instincts in coverage, as proved by his nine pass breakups. He has two interceptions this season, as well as 15 more pass breakups. Listed at 5-10, 191 pounds, Ward plays bigger than that. I really liked what I saw on his 2016 tape, even as the Buckeyes had two other corners who went in the first round of the 2017 draft. He has a good chance to be the top corner picked in 2018, as Ohio State's Marshon Lattimore was in 2017.
Baker Mayfield was the sixth Heisman winner from Oklahoma. AP Photo/Craig Ruttle
13. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Previous rank: NR
This is Mayfield's debut in my Big Board. I'm just hearing too much from scouts who love him and think he's going to be a first-round pick. As I wrote earlier this month, Mayfield is one of the most difficult evaluations in this class. I love him on the field -- he's not afraid to take shots downfield, and he has an underrated arm -- but his size is going to be a question until he gets in front of scouts at the Senior Bowl (he hasn't said yet whether he's attending) or the combine. He is listed at 6-1, but I think he's closer to 6-0. Either way, we'll find out soon. The new Heisman Trophy winner and the Sooners have a tough test up next against a fast and physical Georgia defense.
14. *Tremaine Edmunds, OLB, Virginia Tech
Previous rank: 13
At 6-5, 250 pounds, Edmunds is a gifted athlete and physical specimen, and he lives in the backfield. A year after recording 106 total tackles, 18.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks, he has 102 total tackles, 14 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks this season. Edmunds isn't a traditional linebacker; he could play inside in a pinch and disrupt some throwing lanes, and he could also play outside and pressure quarterbacks. He even does a good job covering pass-catchers out of the backfield. He's an impressive athlete, and you could make a case that Edmunds has the most upside of any linebacker in this class. His brother Terrell is also an NFL prospect, as a safety.
15. *Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia
Previous rank: NR
Smith is making his Big Board debut, too. At 6-1, 225, he's extremely athletic. He can get sideline to sideline in a hurry. A season after having 95 total tackles and five tackles for loss, Smith is up to 113 tackles, 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks -- with potentially two more games to go. He can blitz up the middle or off the edge, and I think he could play inside or outside linebacker. He's just a fun player to watch.
16. *Arden Key, OLB, LSU
Previous rank: 9
Key is a tough prospect to pin down. He just didn't make many plays this season because he wasn't on the field much. The 6-6, 265-pounder is a fantastic pass-rushing talent, though, and he can close quickly on quarterbacks. He had 17 sacks over his first two seasons at LSU, including 12 last season. But he had only four in eight games this season. After taking a leave of absence from the LSU team in the spring, Key had shoulder surgery and missed the beginning of the season, too. And he wasn't great against the run in 2016 or 2015. Now a knee injury has kept him out of the Tigers' final two games, and he hasn't practiced leading up to LSU's bowl game. This would be a pick based on Key's enormous potential.
17. Harold Landry, OLB, Boston College
Previous rank: 10
After leading the nation in sacks (16.5) last season, Landry could have been a late first- or early second-round pick if he had entered the 2017 draft. He also had 22 tackles for loss. There is value in his versatility. The 6-3, 257-pounder can play outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense or end in a 4-3. He missed the Eagles' last four games of the regular season with an ankle injury, but he had five sacks -- including three in a tough loss to Virginia Tech -- and 8.5 tackles for loss in eight games. And he has been invited to the Senior Bowl.
18. Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
Previous rank: 16
McGlinchey decided to remain in school for his senior year, but he's another guy on the fringe of the first round in 2017. He is a massive athlete (6-8, 315) who looks like a tight end with pads on. He was dominant from the left side in the rout of USC in October. He plays with solid technique, and he can get to the second level for combo blocks, all while driving defenders off the ball in the run game. He played right tackle in 2015, then replaced first-round pick Ronnie Stanley on the left side last season, and he has stayed at left tackle in 2017. The versatility will help McGlinchey in the NFL, where I think he's a lock for the first round in 2018.
19. *Connor Williams, OT, Texas
Previous rank: 18
After digging into Williams' 2016 tape, I really liked what I saw. He's a pure left tackle prospect with great feet and balance, and he just doesn't get beaten in pass protection. But Williams (6-6, 315) didn't have a great game to open the season against Maryland. He was beaten in that game, and that was discouraging. Williams suffered a sprained MCL and PCL in his left knee in the loss at USC and missed seven games, returning for the Longhorns' final two games. He has decided to sit out the team's bowl game, however, after declaring for the draft, which is the right move if he isn't fully healthy.
20. *Bryce Love, RB, Stanford
Previous rank: NR
I've been hearing some first-round buzz on the Heisman runner-up. He can fly. Love (5-10, 195) is a home run hitter and one of the best game-breakers I've scouted over the past few years. In fact, his 12 50-yard rushes this season were the most by an FBS player over the past 10 seasons. There are questions about his hands -- he caught only 14 passes over the past two seasons -- but teams like him as a change-of-pace back. He's not a bruiser, but he can score every time he touches the ball. He would be a good complementary piece to a solid team late in the first round. You can see some of his vision and tackle-breaking ability in the video clip above.
21. *Rashaan Evans, ILB, Alabama
Previous rank: 14
Finally healthy after being hampered by a groin injury, Evans stood out on a defense loaded with NFL talent. He played outside early in his career at Alabama, and the versatility will help at the next level. Evans (6-3, 234) can also rush the passer; he has 14 career sacks. The Crimson Tide have a long history of producing talented linebackers, including Reuben Foster in the 2017 draft, and Evans is next up. He has 10.5 tackles for loss this season.
22. *Vita Vea, DT, Washington
Previous rank: 21
At 6-4, 346 pounds, Vea is more than a space-eater. He has some explosion and quickness off the ball and can penetrate along the interior. He had five sacks and 39 total tackles last season, and he had 3.5 sacks in the 2017 regular season. I think Vea can be an every-down player in the NFL, not just a two-down tackle. He reminds me of Haloti Ngata, who had three consecutive NFL seasons with at least five sacks.
23. *Da'Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
Previous rank: 24
Payne (6-2, 319) is a consistent and reliable presence for the Crimson Tide. He isn't going to put up huge numbers on the stat sheet -- he has only three career sacks -- but he's consistently beating interior offensive linemen and getting good push, and he's a solid prospect with some upside.
24. *Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
Previous rank: 17
I wrote about Brown earlier this season, when the 6-8, 345-pound left tackle was outstanding in the Sooners' win at Ohio State. He helped protect OU quarterback Baker Mayfield from a defense that is loaded with future NFL talent. Brown is nimble for a big man, getting to the second level with ease. He has great feet and can easily slide outside to pick up blitzing linebackers. Georgia will be a huge test in the Rose Bowl, but I think he's up to it.
25. *Josh Jackson, CB, Iowa
Previous rank: 20
Jackson was the best corner in college football this season, and he showed it by picking off Ohio State's J.T. Barrett three times in an upset win. He was phenomenal and showed off his stellar hands. Jackson had seven total interceptions and broke up 18 passes this season, his first as a starter. The 6-1, 185-pounder has also pitched in on punt returns, though he didn't break off any big returns.
