Assassin said:
From what I can see in the FPI projections, Dallas could drop as low at #7 (depending on SoS) if we lose Sunday and everything falls into place. We have a 52.2% of getting a Top 10 pick if we lose.
Winning and Washington winning puts us around the mid teens
Winning and Washington loosing puts us in the playoffs
Draft Order: Current Position No. 11
With their win, Dallas fell out of the Top 10 draft order.
They sit at No. 11, tied with five other teams with 6 wins. Also with 6-9 records are the Washington Football Team, LA Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. The New England Patriots are 6-8 and face Buffalo on Monday Night Football.
Unlike playoff tiebreakers, head-to-head means nothing, so even though Dallas beat the Vikings and 49ers, they are still before them in draft order. The Cowboys have the worst opponent Strength of Schedule (.465) so they win the draft order tiebreaker.
The Las Vegas Raiders are 7-8 and are the only team with just 7 wins on the season.
The worst Dallas could finish in the draft order would be No. 16.
Even if the Cowboys and Washington win in Week 17 (giving WFT the division crown), there's no chance the Cowboys' opponent SOS is worse than the Raiders. However, if there's a 3-way tie for the NFC East, the Giants win the division and Washington could end up with a worse SOS and ahead of Dallas in the draft order.
There are four teams with 5-10 records, in front of Dallas in the order.
The Cowboys have clinched a worse SOS than all four teams, and none of them play each other in Week 17.
Therefore, a miss-the-playoffs Cowboys could still finish anywhere from No. 7 to No. 16 in the draft order based on the results of Week 17.
If Dallas makes the dance, the earliest they would draft would be No. 19. If they won their first game, the earliest Dallas would draft would be No. 25.
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