6-6 or 7-5. It's impossible to predict bowls without knowing the match up or which players will be opting out.

4-8

But no coaching changes,

IowaBear said:

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It has more to do with the weak schedule. There's 3 good teams on the schedule. Utah, ISU and KU. The rest are mediocre at best. So I'm banking on the Bears improving enough to finally win some of these very winnable games

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What makes you think OSU, TCU, and KSU won't be better than us?

OSU is a minimum 8 win team on a bad year for Gundy. KSU has been rolling. TCU is probably reloaded

We don't even play KSU so who cares if they're better than BU. I personally don't think OSU is going to be anything special. Same for TCU. Doesn't mean they won't be better. But I did say 7-5. Not like I said 10-2 or something crazy.

2023:
- 2nd youngest roster behind Iowa State (I think??)
- No portal use (or little)
- Zero energy

Lost to:
- Utah by 7
- Houston by 1
- WVU by 3

Win those 3 and we were in a bowl.

2024:
- Young players have experience
- Picked up some transfers including a throwing & scrambling QB who can hopefully insulate from any bad line play
- They say there is more energy; i'm cautious optimistic because they said the same going into and coming out of every game in 2023
- NIL is paying in a capitalist way -- not socialist -- which will lead to better performance from stars
- 2025/2026 recruiting is off to a great start which may motivate all to outperform knowing better talent is coming

Basic principle is that it's often more difficult to improve from Great to Excellent than Bad to Average. I have no stats or citations to support this. If we improve by 15% and the higher ranked teams improve by 5, we win 6. We would have won the 3 above mentioned lost games in 2023. We win those equivalent games this year. And we beat Tarleton in the place of the 2023 loss to Texas State.

This is my dream case.

I think a lot of the woe-is-me crowd forget Utah, Houston and WVU turned on a dime late in the fourth Q in each case. And WVU/Utah were both good teams last year. Like you said, it was a young team that didn't know how to finish off games, and in the WVU and Utah cases we were trying to finish those off with a backup QB.

We bring back a lot of players who experienced that last year. We basically had zero transfers out. I think it's reasonable to believe that realistically with only one game that looks out of reach on paper (@Utah) this team could surprise people this season.

The other wild card is our offense's visibility. Big 12 teams have no tape yet on a Finn+Spav-run offense, which is an underrated advantage.

Utah is likely a loss. But they're being criminally overhyped based on the return of 35 year old Cam Rising and a very talented (oft injured) Brant Kuithe at TE. I'll go on record now that Utah finishes 9-3 at best. They have solid DL/OL play but they lack playmakers which is why they often struggle to score and rely heavily on their defense to win games for them.

I think you're underrating Utah. Assuming he stays healthy Rising is the best QB in the conference, and with Singer transferring in their WR room is one of the better ones in the league. And they might have the best defense in the country with everyone back - I think Phil Steele rated it 3 or 4 nationally on returning talent. If they can just get something from their RB rotation and their o-line picks up where it left off, this is the Big 12 playoff frontrunner with a bullet.

It's also an exceedingly tough place to play. We did luck out however in that our Utah game this year doesn't actually count toward our Big 12 schedule, so a loss there doesn't have the impact it otherwise might.

You lost me with Rising as the best QB in the league and stating they have one of the best WR rooms. Fafita and Daniels are both better QBs than Rising.
I can name better WR rooms in the B12 let alone nationally. Singer did absolutely nothing at USC. Heck I'd put our WR room ahead of there's. And everyone knows I'm far from biased when it comes to the Bears
I'll eat crow if I'm wrong but I'll go on record 9-3 at best for them.

Yogi said:

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4-8

But no coaching changes,

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Imagine how empty McLane would be in the fall of '25 if that happens.

Excited to see Auburn coming to town Labor Day weekend coming off 3-9 and 4-8? When you add in how the '22 season ended (5 or 6 consecutive losses), that's a run that few fanbases can take.

IowaBear said:

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We don't even play KSU so who cares if they're better than BU. I personally don't think OSU is going to be anything special. Same for TCU. Doesn't mean they won't be better. But I did say 7-5. Not like I said 10-2 or something crazy.

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Good point, I didn't even check the schedule before this. If we don't play Ksu I can see your prediction.

Singer was a top 20 national WR at Arizona and got stuck behind two NFL draft picks at USC with the rest of their WR depth chart while Riley figured it out. He'll feature in 2024 like he did at Arizona in 2022 with a better QB.

And a 100% Rising is the best QB in the conference, without question. Putting Daniels even in the same conversation is laughable, and nothing Fifita has done equaled Rising's 2022.

No what's laughable is saying the have one of the best WR rooms in the league. If Singer was the stud you claim him to be he would have done something.. anything at USC.
Will agree to disagree on Rising. You're making him out as an elite QB. He's not. A healthy Daniels is better. And Fafita… well you clearly haven't watched him… at all.
One of us will eat crow at seasons end.
Oh and by the way Risings stat line in 2022 25 TDs 7 picks 2900 yards. Go look at Fafitas last year before you make the asinine claim that his 23 was no where near Risings 2022. It was better and laughably better considering he didn't he start the first 3 games 25/6 2800 in 9 games started. Would have blown Risings career year out of the water had he started all 12

Yogi said:

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4-8

But no coaching changes,

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This is my take too. Honestly, 3-9 is more likely just looking at the schedule, but I am willing to bet they'll find a 4th win somewhere.

But Aranda can play enough of the "just look at our recruiting" and "all these new faces on staff" cards to stay.

Greenboy232 said:

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Highlight of the season happens the following week when Bears dig deep to beat TCU on a FG in final three minutes.

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This is not impossible, but Aranda is just not a good enough coach to win a game like TCU. Team will not be prepared, as they almost never are against TCU.

Schedule is weak again. Only a few sure losses on the schedule. Bears will have a shot in most games. I also get the hesitation about predicting anything other than 4-8. Regardless anything under 6-6 and Dave's for sure gone

IowaBear said:

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Schedule is weak again. Only a few sure losses on the schedule. Bears will have a shot in most games. I also get the hesitation about predicting anything other than 4-8. Regardless anything under 6-6 and Dave's for sure gone

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Don't bet on that. We only fire winners.

Zero chance Daves here in December if he's not coaching a bowl game. Arandas leash was already too long bringing him back this year. Not even Mack would be dumb enough to bring Aranda back if he has another losing season

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Yogi said:

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4-8

But no coaching changes,

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This is my take too. Honestly, 3-9 is more likely just looking at the schedule, but I am willing to bet they'll find a 4th win somewhere.

But Aranda can play enough of the "just look at our recruiting" and "all these new faces on staff" cards to stay.

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If he survives another 3-9 or 4-8, we need to look to follow another college program because that is a sign of gross negligence by the administration and there is no point in caring going forward.

lakersfan34 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Yogi said:

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4-8

But no coaching changes,

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This is my take too. Honestly, 3-9 is more likely just looking at the schedule, but I am willing to bet they'll find a 4th win somewhere.

But Aranda can play enough of the "just look at our recruiting" and "all these new faces on staff" cards to stay.

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If he survives another 3-9 or 4-8, we need to look to follow another college program because that is a sign of gross negligence by the administration and there is no point in caring going forward.

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If that was the standard, we would have all jumped off the band wagon long ago.

GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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lakersfan34 said:

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GoodOleBaylorLine said:

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Yogi said:

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4-8

But no coaching changes,

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This is my take too. Honestly, 3-9 is more likely just looking at the schedule, but I am willing to bet they'll find a 4th win somewhere.

But Aranda can play enough of the "just look at our recruiting" and "all these new faces on staff" cards to stay.

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If he survives another 3-9 or 4-8, we need to look to follow another college program because that is a sign of gross negligence by the administration and there is no point in caring going forward.

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If that was the standard, we would have all jumped off the band wagon long ago.

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Yeah, but some of us are getting older, more tired, and are more ready to invest time and money elsewhere if Baylor is just gonna Baylor.

There are a lot of factors that go into good players not panning out at programs with first-year head coaches. If Singer hadn't already put in an 1,100-yard season I would agree with you, but he's already produced at a level that would've made him the best receiver statistically in the Big 12 last season. With Rising slinging him balls as the established WR1 he will be toward the top of the list again in 2024.

The Daniels comp isn't serious to me until he plays more than 9 games in a season and wins a big ranked game. The team is good enough - Jason Bean has more ranked wins than Daniels since 2022.

The Fifita comp is statistically closer, I could see an argument the other way given Rising's best season was slightly better statistically than Fifita's with one more GP and 40 or 50 more pass attempts. But the fact that Rising has put together two very good seasons and has been around the college game longer than Fifita is why I'd choose him as my Big 12 QB1 every day of the week.

Based on schedule I'd say 5 or 6, but hope for 7 plus if they jell pretty quickly and avoid key injuries. Impossible to tell what Baylor or other teams will look like, so just a wild guess.

If your going by experience than sure pick Rising. The dudes been in college 7 frigging years. He's older than a good chunk of pro QBs. If we're going by talent which I was give me those 2 over him ever single day.
Another reason is because Rising is coming off a nasty nasty injury. Utah has already came out and said they've cut the designed QB runs (Rising was a sneaky good runner) due to him coming off an injury. It's reasonable to suspect the QB he once was is no more.
We just have very different views of Singer.

Regardless of win/loss record, I just want to see a smart team with talent that has a chance to win most any game with enough breaks. I want to see a team that doesn't shoot itself in the foot repeatedly and minimize its opportunities with bad play, poor preparation or poor decisions.

8-4 and in the top four of the new Big 12. Unsure about bowl win, but I'll say we go with a win for final record of 9-4.

8-5 with a bowl win, maybe 7-6.

Other than Cam Rusing returning, why is Utah ranked so high after barely beating a bad BU team last year? That seems to make them very one-dimensional. What else is going to be different?

Parch was correct in saying they return a ton on defense. They also get an Uber talented TE back. But both Rising and Kuithe are coming off brutal injuries . I too don't get the hype as far as them being a playoff contender goes.

The media and especially CBS has been ranking Utah a dozen places higher than they perform. They are no way a playoff contender.

monsterbear61 said:

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Other than Cam Rusing returning, why is Utah ranked so high after barely beating a bad BU team last year? That seems to make them very one-dimensional. What else is going to be different?

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Well, it WAS 150 degrees on the field here, so there's that. And as most probably anticipated, even melted down, Utah crushed tha' behrs at the end when needed. Weather will be much better there and BU just doesn't do well away period. It'll be a mauling.

Maybe Yoda can read to them The Little Engine That Could.

monsterbear61 said:

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Other than Cam Rusing returning, why is Utah ranked so high after barely beating a bad BU team last year? That seems to make them very one-dimensional. What else is going to be different?

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I believe they were playing their second or third string quarterback when we played them.

We win 8.

The way I see it, we are no different than all the other 4- 8 and 8-4 teams. The difference between 6-6 and 8-4 is a stop on 4th and 1. An untimely sack or trip up or missed field goal.

I went with 8 because Finn will pick up the extra first down and keep the defense off the field. And that talent will open lanes for the RBs.

7-5... Go Bears!

I'll go with 6-6 while hoping it's better than that.