TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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Rather than use the term 'make a hefty bet,' which is difficult to quantify,

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Not that hard to quantify. One hefty bag, filled with cash.

gobears where did you find that? Is that real? Strange pick of coloration for the graphic if so. Every region has Baylor picked to win but each region is colored in Duke's color rather than green.

If you actually want to be taken seriously, do your research.

RickyButler said:

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BylrFan said:

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If you actually want to be taken seriously, do your research.

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he did enough. we have been bad on defense. ive seen it with my own eyes

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Ricky! I haven't seen you on the board in a very long time. I heard that you had some health issues. I hope all is well with you.

JasonEvans said:

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So, I am one of the hosts of the Duke Basketball Report podcast and the guy who said, "Baylor is awful on defense. Really, really bad on defense."

I wanted to say, first of all, that I am thrilled you folks found our podcast. We do it for Duke fans, obviously, but we get a great kick out of rival/opponent fans who chime in and comment upon it.

Secondly, I am extremely flattered by the "Duke Football Analyst" title that was bestowed upon me but I really do not deserve it. As the "Basketball" part of our name indicates, the podcast is primarily dedicated to our hoops team (they have had some modest success over the years, you may have noticed). This is actually the first year we have tried to cover every football game. Most years we would comment on about half of the football games and we didn't do extensive football previews, but our football program has improved so much under coach Cutcliffe, we really wanted to give it due attention this season.

Still, I will freely admit that -- unlike the basketball previews -- I did not watch a single second of Baylor football to come up with my assessment of the team. I know, I know, that greatly diminishes the value of my analysis (if you can even call it analysis) but neither of their first two games were on TV in the SE U.S. and... well... my interest in (no offense) mediocre college football teams from the southwest is pretty darn limited.

Still, I wanted to provide some perspective for my audience about what kind of team Baylor is, seeing as I am sure many of my listeners probably don't even know Baylor is in the Big 12, so I did the next best thing to watching games... I looked at your boxscores and studied you recent history.

And... well... there is no easy way to say this. The number for you guys are really, really bad.

Last year, you were 113th in D-1 football giving up 457 yards per game. You were 115th in points allowed at 35.9 points per game. When you consider the fact that there are only 130 teams in FBS, that means you guys were pretty much in the bottom 10% of all teams in yards and points allowed. Call me hyperbolic if you want, but I would say that was a "really, really bad" defense.

Now, it is easy to say, "Hey, that was 2017 and we have really turned the corner in 2018," so I looked at your first two games of the season to see if that was the case. As I mentioned on the pod, you played a pair of godawful teams. You played teams that, frankly, any Power 5 conference team should absolutely crush.

Given the talent/facilities/money/prestige advantage you have on teams like UT-SA and Abilene Christian I expected to see scores like what happens when Duke plays their annual game against an overmatched FCS school. Last year, we played North Carolina-Central and the final score was 60-7. UNCC had a total of 8 first downs all game. They gained 64 yards on the ground and all of 94 in the air. They rarely got the ball past half field.

So, when I looked up your first two games and saw that you gave up... gulp... 466 yards and 27 points to Alilene Christian and then followed that up by giving up 20 points and 255 yards to UTSA the very next week... well... what was I supposed to think?

Look, it is entirely possible you will make Duke look bad on Saturday. QB is the most important position on the field and we just lost a 3 year starter who is likely destined for the NFL someday. Without him, you could take every single QB on the active roster, combine all their college stats, and they would have fewer career completed passes than I have fingers on my hands. We may be just godawful on O. It is definitely a possibility.

But, if any one of these guys we try out at QB proves to be even adequate, I think you all are in for a tough game. Duke's D is excellent. We just utterly frustrated one of the better teams in the Big Ten last weekend, and we were playing on their field. Unlike you guys, playing a couple horrible cupcakes, Duke has taken on two teams that each won 10 games a year ago... and we won both games by better than 2 TDs.

I will be prepared to take my lumps if Duke comes up short... but if I was in Vegas right now I would look at that 6.5 point line and make a very hefty bet that it is very, very wrong.

Thanks for your interest in my little pod...

Best,

-Jason Evans
Forum -- https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?42276-DBR-Podcast-125-Down-goes-NWestern-but-at-what-cost

Podcast -- https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast

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Thanks for stopping by and contributing.

So since you're a basketball guy, was it charging or nah?

Welcome back. Best to you.

Bear8084 said:

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YoakDaddy said:

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BylrFan said:

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Stranger said:

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My question is why Baylor is a six and a half point favorite?

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Duke lost their star QB/CB and it's in Waco.

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And an FCS team rolled up 220 yards on the ground on us.

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And then the defense was 100 yards better in run D the next game.

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Yeah...against powerful UTSA! The same UTSA team gained all of 2 yards rushing against Arizona State.

jojos1960 said:

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Bear8084 said:

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YoakDaddy said:

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BylrFan said:

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Stranger said:

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My question is why Baylor is a six and a half point favorite?

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Duke lost their star QB/CB and it's in Waco.

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And an FCS team rolled up 220 yards on the ground on us.

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And then the defense was 100 yards better in run D the next game.

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Yeah...against powerful UTSA! The same UTSA team gained all of 2 yards rushing against Arizona State.

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What S11 said.

Baylor at Duke 2017

first quarter

TD
13:36
Shaun Wilson 50 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
3 plays, 65 yards, 0:52

second quarter

TD
14:21
Brittain Brown 34 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
6 plays, 58 yards, 2:33

third Quarter

TD
12:12
Shaun Wilson 65 Yd Run (Austin Parker Kick)
1 play, 65 yards, 0:10



First Downs
Duke 24
BU 9

Possession
Duke 38:57
BU 21:03


Doesn't take extensive analysis to see stopping the run is kind of a big deal in this matchup.

Stranger said:

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YoakDaddy said:

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forza orsi said:

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JasonEvans said:

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Still, I will freely admit that -- unlike the basketball previews -- I did not watch a single second of Baylor football to come up with my assessment of the team. I know, I know, that greatly diminishes the value of my analysis (if you can even call it analysis) but neither of their first two games were on TV in the SE U.S. and... well... my interest in (no offense) mediocre college football teams from the southwest is pretty darn limited.

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So why are we even discussing the merits of this guy's analysis? He's got a ten minute analysis of the upcoming game, talking about how Baylor's strengths play into Duke's hands, and doing it while bragging that he didn't watch a single second of Baylor football. This is some real insight! And he's an analyst broadcasting his thoughts on the upcoming game for the team he covers and says that his interest in watching the team they're going to play "is pretty darn limited?" BTW, the broadcast could have been watched on Facebook in North Carolina, just like everyone in Texas watched it. If you listen to his podcast, he comes off as an arrogant clown. His comments here do nothing to change that appearance.

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I wouldn't even call it analysis. It's more like super-fan throwing shlt on the wall to see what sticks for a fan base.....Baylor has super-fan podcasters like that.

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They live and thrive here.

As for the Bears? Come Saturday, we'll see.

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Speaking of expert analysis ... that's some heady stuff right there.

Edmund 1 said:

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I don't know who this "Duke analyst" is - but Duke fans are generally thinking this is a 50-50 game at best for Duke....without our QB, our best DB, and being in Waco, and Baylor's coach in his second year. This analyst guy is an outlier for sure.

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Voice of reason. Game is a toss up.

OldSchoolBU said:

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thanks to Jason for stopping by in a civil and respectful tone. Mad respect for Duke and their program. Story time.

In 1966, I was a sophomore in high school and lined up at corner much faster and lighter than I am today. I was all district and on pace for a college scholarship before a couple of knee injuries derailed me. The team we were playing had a senior WR who everyone was telling me was really good and fast. I said I could care less and I was going to shut him down. We had a much better DL and LB crew than this team we were playing.

The first play from scrimmage, the opposing QB threw a deep bomb. I felt like I was running in cement and I was a 4.5 guy. 6 points later I was shell shocked and it snowballed from there.

Name of the receiver, Cliff Branch from Worthing high school in Houston. He went on to have a great career with the Oakland Raiders. Should be a hall of famer.

Moral of the story, speed kills. Best of luck to Duke. They are sure as hell are going to need it.

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Awesome story. He was a speed demon. Where did you play high school ball?

Ricky B., you were not involved with Baylor baseball 1969/1970, correct?

I can't find too much to argue with the Duke basketball guy's analysis. It's big picture, which can be picked at, but accurate.

PervertedLittleTarts said:

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So since you're a basketball guy, was it charging or nah?

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I am guessing you are talking about the 2010 Regional Final and the charge called on Quincy Acy with about 5 minutes left in the game when Brian Zoubek slid to the baseline to stop him from driving to the hoop. It is a really close play, one that could go either way. You can see the play here:



Yeah, it could have been called a block or a no-call instead. There isn't a ton of contact on the play and I think a no-call might have been the way to go. It is not one of those calls that seems to be a no-brainer block or charge. But, I firmly believe harping on one call as determining the outcome of a game is weak. If the call happens in the final 30 seconds of the game, that is one thing, but this came with close to 5 minutes left in the contest. There were still many, many chances for Baylor to win the game regardless of how that call goes down.

Let's even say the call gets made the way you want and Zoubek fouls out. Baylor gets 2 (or maybe 3, Acy was just a so-so FT shooter) more points. Let's say Baylor is up 4 after that play, instead of up 2. Duke makes a 3 pointer on the next possession (Zoubek, who would have fouled out, has no impact on that play as Lance Thomas is the player who got the Orebound that led to the 3 by Nolan Smith). Baylor then scores a basket and Duke's Smith gets fouled. He hits one FT but misses the next and again, Thomas gets the rebound and passes to a Duke player for a 3 pointer. That puts Duke up 3, but if the block is called it would have either put Duke up 1 or tied the game. Baylor then misses a shot inside (Zoubek gets the rebound, but several Dukies were around it) and Duke hits another 3.

No matter how that block/charge went, the next couple minutes saw Duke take command of the game with three consecutive 3-pointers. Isolating that one call and saying that it changed the outcome of the game ignores the many events that happen over the next four and a half minutes that ended with Duke winning the game by 7 points.

Look, I get that fouling Zoubek out of the game could have changed the psyche of the Duke players. I get that Zoub had a major impact on the game with his rebounding and ability to keep balls alive, even if he was not a huge scorer (5 points) for Duke in the contest. It is worth noting that after the call, Zoubek only shows up twice in the box score in the final 5 minutes of the game, to grab the one largely uncontested defensive rebound I noted above and to assist on a three-pointer by passing out of the post. He was on the floor bt it is not like he was the dominant player, not even close, down the stretch.

I am not going to be so naive as to say that Duke would have 100% won the game if the call is reversed. Anything is possible. The butterfly effect of one changed call on a game can be significant. But, I don't think it is accurate or productive to look at that one call and say it definitely changed the outcome of the game.

All that said, I get where ya'l are coming from. Just ask any Duke fan about Wendell Carter's block/charge in overtime of the Kansas game last year or Carlos Booze's arm's being grabbed (no call!!) on the final play of the 2002 Sweet 16 against Indiana. The refs... they suck... they really really suck.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VJqc5IaaxGE/UGeJKZpZdqI/AAAAAAAAC9E/76pYIUwp1H4/s1600/Blind+Refs.jpg

If you look at the NCAA as a business, March Madness is really their sole cash cow.

Everything g else, college fb included is really just a pet political project. Which is why there s no enforcement of rules. The NCAA wants to toss its responsibilities out the window and enjoy the celebrity of high profile sports.

So it's easy to make the case that they protect a few college basketball programs to keep their marquee programs happy.

It was a block. and Zoubeks career since is proof it wasn't because he knew how to play basketball.

Ashley Hodge said:

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BaylorOkie said:

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TL : DR

It must be exhausting for Duke fans to constantly have to defend their team getting obvious favorable treatment from refs. I salute the long, drawn out effort, however.

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not as coddled as Kansas though. I asked an assistant coach who coached in the B12 and ACC who was coddled more Duke or KU? He said KU and it wasn't close.

His name was Jeff Capel but that's besides the point (kidding on Capel)

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Duke isn't as coddled as KU because the ACC has Carolina. Big 12 doesn't have the equivalent.

Ashley Hodge said:

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BaylorOkie said:

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TL : DR

It must be exhausting for Duke fans to constantly have to defend their team getting obvious favorable treatment from refs. I salute the long, drawn out effort, however.

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not as coddled as Kansas though. I asked an assistant coach who coached in the B12 and ACC who was coddled more Duke or KU? He said KU and it wasn't close.

His name was Jeff Capel but that's besides the point (kidding on Capel)

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KU is in another class, no doubt.

S11 said:

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Duke has a 7 footer and Lomers was playing great up til the call. Completely changes the offense and the length on D. Game changing blown call

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If Zoub fouls out, Mason or Miles Plumlee (both of whom are 6-11 and extremely athletic future NBA first rounders) would have come in the game.

Again, I'm not saying that Zoubek wasn't the better, more impactful player for Duke at that time, but to imply that without Zoubek Duke is suddenly dead in the water in that game is really myopic. "Game changing" is hyperbolic when you look at everything that happened over the final 5 minutes of the game.

But, you all clearly have established a narrative (one not backed up by the facts of what actually happened in the game) and I don't for a minute think I am going to change any minds. I spoke my piece. Not much more needs to be said by the voices of reason.

Good luck in the game today... though not too much luck

JasonEvans said:

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I spoke my piece.

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peace

Good to see some good college sports talk prior to the Duke game this year. The talk prior to last year's game was "wow, things are very, very bad for us."

MrGolfguy said:

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JasonEvans said:

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I spoke my piece.

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peace

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No, piece is correct.

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/qa/speak-your-piece-and-hold-your-peace

Bob Green said:

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MrGolfguy said:

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JasonEvans said:

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No, piece is correct.

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Not in Texas

They obviously don't know that CPB has retired