bear2be2 said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

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Gotta shed the number, though. It's too easy to make fun of how the Big 12 only had 10 teams.

Keep the Big but add something else. Maybe the Big Kahuna Conference?

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I think you're overthinking this. Let's just add four more schools and get back to 12. Then it makes sense again.

And wait for the PAC-12 to do the same thing once it's raided and form an alliance of 24 schools.

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This sounds like what the WAC tried to do back in the 90's. They went to 16 teams in pods of 4, but the financials collapsed the conference and the Mountain West reformed.

bear2be2 said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

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Gotta shed the number, though. It's too easy to make fun of how the Big 12 only had 10 teams.

Keep the Big but add something else. Maybe the Big Kahuna Conference?

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I think you're overthinking this. Let's just add four more schools and get back to 12. Then it makes sense again.

And wait for the PAC-12 to do the same thing once it's raided and form an alliance of 24 schools.

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There will be about a 10 or so team ACC remnant and actually a SEC and BiG remnant as well that will be in the same boat. I strongly suspect.

A G5 level for sure.......regardless of what it is actually called.

parch said:

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TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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burg0047 said:

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TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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If anything, the recruiting just got a bit easier, because the incentive for a Texas kid to leave, go play in Oklahoma and never have his family see him play will be a strategic obstacle that has to be overcome.

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This x100! There are certain kids for whom this won't make a bit a difference. For the majority, though, it will be a deal breaker/maker as the family contemplates the path forward for their son. We were never going to get the 5* dream chasers anyway -- for the 3's and low 4's where family matters most, we have a leg up on the competition now.

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Switzer said it. Osborne said it, Jimmy Johnson said. Go watch the Miami 30 for 30. The first thing they had to do was win the State of Miami in recruiting and that turned the program around.

Kids don't want to take a travel job at 19 and go work for someone that doesn't care about them .

Kids want to play in front of their friends and mom and Dad.

End of story.

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This is 80's logic. The world is smaller and more monetarily incentivized now. I'm not saying kids don't want to play in front of their parents, but there are bigger factors in play now, especially for high-end recruits. As high school stars become more aware of their own power and agency, they will continue to understand the business side of the game better and make moves that benefit themselves and their future. As we're going to see with the conference insanity and mass geographic expansion of those conferences over the next few years, recruiting is going to become more national than regional.

It's just a different world than Barry or Jimmy inhabited, and we're never going back.

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Even in the 80's, the world beat a path to a guy named Barry Sanders. And even in Stillwater, he'd have had his run with NLI money.

TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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parch said:

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TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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burg0047 said:

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TellMeYouLoveMe said:

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If anything, the recruiting just got a bit easier, because the incentive for a Texas kid to leave, go play in Oklahoma and never have his family see him play will be a strategic obstacle that has to be overcome.

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This x100! There are certain kids for whom this won't make a bit a difference. For the majority, though, it will be a deal breaker/maker as the family contemplates the path forward for their son. We were never going to get the 5* dream chasers anyway -- for the 3's and low 4's where family matters most, we have a leg up on the competition now.

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Switzer said it. Osborne said it, Jimmy Johnson said. Go watch the Miami 30 for 30. The first thing they had to do was win the State of Miami in recruiting and that turned the program around.

Kids don't want to take a travel job at 19 and go work for someone that doesn't care about them .

Kids want to play in front of their friends and mom and Dad.

End of story.

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This is 80's logic. The world is smaller and more monetarily incentivized now. I'm not saying kids don't want to play in front of their parents, but there are bigger factors in play now, especially for high-end recruits. As high school stars become more aware of their own power and agency, they will continue to understand the business side of the game better and make moves that benefit themselves and their future. As we're going to see with the conference insanity and mass geographic expansion of those conferences over the next few years, recruiting is going to become more national than regional.

It's just a different world than Barry or Jimmy inhabited, and we're never going back.

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Even in the 80's, the world beat a path to a guy named Barry Sanders. And even in Stillwater, he'd have had his run with NLI money.

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Yeah but that illegal NLI money wasn't part of the established system. It's not an accident that Saban casually mentioned Bryce Young is closing in on seven figs before even throwing a ball for Alabama. He's advertising. It's an entirely different world today. The amount of legally available money in the system now, plus increasingly business savvy kids, means you're going to see local and regional loyalties continue to erode.

PartyBear said:

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bear2be2 said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

---

Gotta shed the number, though. It's too easy to make fun of how the Big 12 only had 10 teams.

Keep the Big but add something else. Maybe the Big Kahuna Conference?

---

I think you're overthinking this. Let's just add four more schools and get back to 12. Then it makes sense again.

And wait for the PAC-12 to do the same thing once it's raided and form an alliance of 24 schools.

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There will be about a 10 or so team ACC remnant and actually a SEC and BiG remnant as well that will be in the same boat. I strongly suspect.

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And those schools should do the same. Smaller regional leagues make way more sense for the leftovers in all these conferences. They don't need to merge. Just expand to 12 schools each and schedule/negotiate TV rights as a collective.

I predict we'll end up in the NFC East. It's pretty weak right now, so we might have a chance.

If that doesn't work out, we can settle for the CFL. The main downside is that we'll have to learn the words to 'O Canada'.

SMack said:

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I predict we'll end up in the NFC East. It's pretty weak right now, so we might have a chance.

If that doesn't work out, we can settle for the CFL. The main downside is that we'll have to learn the words to 'O Canada'.

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And play 12 men on a side on a 110 yard field and only 3 downs. But at least backs can start moving toward the line of scrimmage before the snap.

What/Who makes a P5 a P5? Would a Big 12 without Texas and OU still be a P5?

WacoFan said:

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What/Who makes a P5 a P5? Would a Big 12 without Texas and OU still be a P5?

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P5 is not actually a NCAA defined entity.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Five_conferences

" The Power Five conferences are five athletic conferences which are considered to be the elite in college football in the United States.[1] They are part of the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) of NCAA Division I, the highest level of collegiate football in the nation. The conferences are the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), Big Ten Conference, Big 12 Conference, Pac-12 Conference, and Southeastern Conference (SEC). The term Power Five is not defined by the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), and the origin of the term is unknown. It has been used in its current meaning since at least 2006.[2] The term is also occasionally used in other college sports, although in many non-football sports, most notably basketball, anywhere from six to eight conferences may be considered "high-major"."

This take cuts to the chase. Well put, Shee. https://t.co/733NtNNLsS pic.twitter.com/7C3aTRnbQy

— Heath Nielsen (@HeathNielsen) July 30, 2021

I think the big 12 will first try to make a 20 team super conference with pac 12 or acc. Pitch is that is only way to counter leverage of sec. I think that's unlikely but they will try.

Backup will be trying to poach other power 5 teams. That's got almost no chance.

Backup is trying to add four more teams to big 12.

However it's very possible enough teams make own deals to make continued viability of big 12 impossible. W va to acc. Ok st and tech to pac 12. It's all possible.

I think most likely is that there is financial incentive for eight to stick together and make new 12 team conference with biggest aac teams or byu or Boise.

Ok, you folks have more insight then I, so tell me about Notre Dame.
They are independent in football, but attached to the ACC in other sports.
So could they not be figured in some scenario??
Surely having them would boost the television revenues.

I always say what I see.I’ve upset some twitter in the @Big12Conference for encouraging them to exercise tolerance moving forward with Commissioner Bob Bowlsby.I say what I see in 🏈regardless of fandom. I disagree with this,”CFB may be becoming a 32 team sport.” #HyperbolicMuch pic.twitter.com/vSL3RlCrpr

— Tim Brando (@TimBrando) July 30, 2021

Bigkahunaww said:

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Ok, you folks have more insight then I, so tell me about Notre Dame.
They are independent in football, but attached to the ACC in other sports.
So could they not be figured in some scenario??
Surely having them would boost the television revenues.

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ND was in the ACC for football last year. It's unlikely they will join in other conference. For some reason, they prefer to be independent.

historian said:

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Bigkahunaww said:

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Ok, you folks have more insight then I, so tell me about Notre Dame.
They are independent in football, but attached to the ACC in other sports.
So could they not be figured in some scenario??
Surely having them would boost the television revenues.

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ND was in the ACC for football last year. It's unlikely they will join in other conference. For some reason, they prefer to be independent.

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ND has remained independent because they do not want to share the money they generate from football revenue and bowl revenue. They have a huge audience from the Catholic community in this country and a long pedigree.

A pretty good reason if it works.

historian said:

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Bigkahunaww said:

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Ok, you folks have more insight then I, so tell me about Notre Dame.
They are independent in football, but attached to the ACC in other sports.
So could they not be figured in some scenario??
Surely having them would boost the television revenues.

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ND was in the ACC for football last year. It's unlikely they will join in other conference. For some reason, they prefer to be independent.

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No revenue sharing. That's why.

chriscbear said:

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Baylor because of football and basketball is a top 20 school athleticly. Just based on football we are some where between 16 to 27. Its because of location and facilities and our record since 2010 in football/basketball. Texas population is 29 million and BU on I35 corridor San Antonio to DFW is experiencing a boom and Waco right in the middle of it. Also Fixer upper with Chip and Johanna. Baylor will be fine.

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Those 29 million eyes are glued on something other than BU. We probably got a great proportion for the basketball playoffs but we do not appeal to that many eyeballs unless you are from the Waco area or a grad.
Therein lies our problem.

Look at how outnumbered we are at neutral sites (TT in Arlington). Even TCU outranks us simply because Fort Worth is larger.

Bigkahunaww said:

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Ok, you folks have more insight then I, so tell me about Notre Dame.
They are independent in football, but attached to the ACC in other sports.
So could they not be figured in some scenario??
Surely having them would boost the television revenues.

---

Yeah let's get rid of games against Clemson, Miami/FSU, and North Carolina and play Kansas, TCU, Oklahoma State.

Never going to happen. Bowlsby missed his shot getting ND for football with OU/UT but without them, there's not much to gain revenue wise

If Baylor had an invite to the ACC on the table, they're out of this conference.

The NCAA gets involved entirely revamps college football, dissolving all conferences and dividing the country into 4 equal regions further divided into two equal sub-regions. From this there are 16 playoff teams. Baylor is part of the Southwest region.

If not that, then Baylor goes to the ACC.

Just put the SWC back together. Replace Texas with Texas State, Texas A&M with A&M Commerce and Arkansas with Arkansas State. Boom done and the bowl games will be awesome

Lots of people want a right-now answer. The real answer will take years to unfold.

If you go back and look at history, football was played regionally. The first conferences were all regional. Atlantic Coast, Southeastern, Southwest, Pacific, and so on. It was TV and money that made conferences want to be national.

The SEC has been a bandit conference for a long time. They killed the SWC when they stole Arkansas, not that the SEC did right by the Hogs. And that's important. Schools which get stolen to new homes find they are second-class.

Ask Nebraska.

Ask Colorado.

Ask Missouri.

20 years from now Texas and Oklahoma will be wondering how it all went wrong.

Because of the penalty money, the Big 12 will play as they are now in 2021 and 2022. UT and OU will get greedy and pay money to jump after that.

By that time, the panic will have settled down some, and the Big 12 will have a much better idea of its options.

ESPN's meddling will be known and understood, no matter how the legal fight plays out. The ACC and the Pac 12 will be less interested in change just to have 16 teams.

Houston, Memphis, and UCF will get serious looks. Two of them will join the Big 12 to replace UT/OU , most likely UH and Memphis, due to geography.

West Virginia will run to the ACC, but be replaced by Nebraska.

In 2025, the big break happens, as Iowa from the Big Ten and Missouri from the SEC come back to the Big 12, making it 12 teams again.

In 2026, a Big 12 team wins the CFP.

bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

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Maybe so.

But who is going to make up for all the lost TV revenue ?

Canada2017 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

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Maybe so.

But who is going to make up for all the lost TV revenue ?

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No one. That money's gone after 2025 and there's nothing any of these teams can do to bring it back.

At this point, you're working to build a stable league that can compete at a national level and make you more money than the American, which is the most likely alternative for all of the Forgotten 8.

bear2be2 said:

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Canada2017 said:

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bear2be2 said:

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The Big 12.

The Forgotten 8 will rebuild and rebrand because it's the best of all undesirable options at this point.

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Maybe so.

But who is going to make up for all the lost TV revenue ?

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No one. That money's gone after 2025 and there's nothing any of these teams can do to bring it back.

At this point, you're working to build a stable league that can compete at a national level and make you more money than the American, which is the most likely alternative for all of the Forgotten 8.

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Won't be enough money with either option .

End game is the same .

Y'all are acting like there are only going to be the 8 excluded from this planned premier league. There will be around 25-33 excluded. About half of all current P5s. There are too many solid programs and brands and alums of all these schools around the country out there that won't be in this potential 32 team or so college NFL that ESPN wants to create that something isn't going to be created for them. (And by that I don't mean the plan being everyone go back to pre mid 90s to little regional conferences where you can follow your school primarily only on the radio). There is too much money to be made off the other half of today's current P5s taken as a whole. On the other hand if if this really is just the SEC going to 16 and that is all ESPN has planned, then likewise most if not all the 8 will be picked up by the other P5s in 2025.

ok. One thing not being really discussed.

Has an alliance been struck between Texas Tech, Baylor & Texas Christian of all for one and one for all?

I think the Texas market in one piece is a real selling point for some conference.

So is this happening?

They all 3 reached out to the PAC. But I think the idea is to ride things out until 25 to see what happens. Not saying they are doing nothing in the meantime but it is a wait and see approach for them now and that would be smart. As I have said I think a major earthquake is coming to the college athletic landscape that does to all current P5s what just happened to the XII. What just happened to the XII I think was the warning quake and it will happen across the country over the next 4 years.

Shouldn't the 8 ADs conspire together to make sure we collect the $160M from OU/UT?

I think they are doing that as well. I meant they initially reached out as a package to the PAC like the day after the story broke about Texas and OU being in the verge of a deal with the SEC.

The GOR's is the only thing saving the Forgotten 8. I think EweT is perfectly happy to play in Big 12 until 2025. They need time to recruit and what better position could they have then the SEC carrot to hold out to recruits starting around 2022. If the State of Texas recruiting is left to aggy and EweT the SEC will find themselves in trouble.

Zero U has become EweT's little bro. Ironic because Zero U owns EweT on the field this decade. However EweT holds all the cash so a Grapes of Wrath cashless Zero U has to tag along and be content with whipping the bully on the field. I find this step bro relationship even more strange then EweT and aggy.

The supposition is that one of the Forgotten 8 will break away leading to a collapse of the Big 12 GOR. That can be avoided if the break away partner also agrees to stay until 2025. Say ISU or WVU announce tomorrow they are leaving for XYZ. It can be styled just like EweT. 2025 exit.

As we get closer to 2025 every year we will get closer to having the entire state of Texas at EweT's and aggys pleasure.

Without knowing where the dominos fall it is impossible to say where we are headed. If Tech and TCU and OSU are left holding the bag then we can form a pretty salty conference of our own with the best from the AAC. I don't see how you can patch up the Big 12 if Tech or OSU were to leave.

I predict we will not be P5 and we will be competing like UH and SMU have over the last two decades. I just don't know which conference we will align with until the B1G makes its move.

The blue bloods of the SEC are about to become UT's little brother as well, regardless of what happens on the field, they just don't know it yet.

The first is an intriguing idea. Too bad neither option is likely to happen.

Oldbear83 said:

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Lots of people want a right-now answer. The real answer will take years to unfold.

If you go back and look at history, football was played regionally. The first conferences were all regional. Atlantic Coast, Southeastern, Southwest, Pacific, and so on. It was TV and money that made conferences want to be national.

The SEC has been a bandit conference for a long time. They killed the SWC when they stole Arkansas, not that the SEC did right by the Hogs. And that's important. Schools which get stolen to new homes find they are second-class.

Ask Nebraska.

Ask Colorado.

Ask Missouri.

20 years from now Texas and Oklahoma will be wondering how it all went wrong.

Because of the penalty money, the Big 12 will play as they are now in 2021 and 2022. UT and OU will get greedy and pay money to jump after that.

By that time, the panic will have settled down some, and the Big 12 will have a much better idea of its options.

ESPN's meddling will be known and understood, no matter how the legal fight plays out. The ACC and the Pac 12 will be less interested in change just to have 16 teams.

Houston, Memphis, and UCF will get serious looks. Two of them will join the Big 12 to replace UT/OU , most likely UH and Memphis, due to geography.

West Virginia will run to the ACC, but be replaced by Nebraska.

In 2025, the big break happens, as Iowa from the Big Ten and Missouri from the SEC come back to the Big 12, making it 12 teams again.

In 2026, a Big 12 team wins the CFP.

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All sounds pretty plausible. Also sounds like something we can live & be happy with.

Only time will tell.