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QUESTIONS ABOUT BIG 12'S P5 STATUS

2,613 Views | 18 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by Aberzombie1892
historian
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I know someone already posted this a few days ago:



Now that I've had some time to think about it, I have a few questions:

Does "Autonomy 5" mean Power 5? It's kind of hard to believe that an 8 team conference without the flagship schools would be considered P5. It would look like a smaller version of a G5 conference.

Is this authoritative? Who said this and can they be trusted? Again, it sounds too doubtful.

Does this mean the Big 12 champion will still have a guaranteed spot in the expanded playoffs?


BUT, if there is any chance of retaining P5 status, and therefore a guaranteed spot in the expanded 12 team playoff for the conference champ, then it might be in our interest to stick together (the remaining 8) and expand by adding BYU, the service academies, Houston, Cincinnati, etc.

A crazier idea would be for the "Big 12" minus 4 to spearhead the move to super conference & jump the gun on the SEC, etc by creating our own before they do: add those teams plus UCF, USF, Memphis, & maybe other independents, or poach other conferences.

All of this is hypothetical and farfetched and it's far more likely that we are going to end up in a place we don't like very much. The conference does not have bold leadership and dramatic changes would require just that. Texas & OU blew up the plans to expand the playoffs. If that still happens, no one knows what it will look like.
BEAR 45
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Not sure why people believe ANY conference is in control of what is happening. ESPN is driving this bus and they are the ones determining who is granted a seat. Sports media is really down to two broadcasters, ESPN and Fox and ESPN holds the best hand at the table. We can speculate all we want, but it will not matter until the super conferences are set and this does not appear to be determined yet.
PartyBear
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The simple answer is yes until 2025 if the 8 hold together. But beyond that a hypothetical conference of the 8 together alone or with maybe 4 solid G5 schools is still a G5 conference. I'm using the current terms. I dont know what G5 and P5 will be called and how many numbers come after the P when this is all said and done. But money wise it will be the equivalent of the AAC's neighborhood I would expect.
historian
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Yes, that makes sense. In the end, it's all about the money.

Sigh
JP1037
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YouTube TV and other streaming services are preparing to compete. It will take a few years but ESPN needs some completion and the TV rules are changing at a rapid pace.
Nick Nolte
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It all boils down to if FOX and CBS want to be serious contenders in the CFB space. If they do, the Big 12 and Pac 12 will be just fine. If they let ESPN continue to buy everything up, then who the hell knows.
BEAR 45
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Nick Nolte said:

It all boils down to if FOX and CBS want to be serious contenders in the CFB space. If they do, the Big 12 and Pac 12 will be just fine. If they let ESPN continue to buy everything up, then who the hell knows.
I do not doubt that there will be regional TV coverage , but what any broadcaster pays for those rights will be determined by how much add revenue they generate. No way those broadcasts generate anything close to what National broadcast games generate and those games will be limited to the new elite tier of teams
DanaDane
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ESPN paid $3 BILLION for the rights for SEC football over 10 years. That's $300 million a year. CBS was paying $55 million. If the SEC package doesn't quickly return the numbers and advertising dollars ESPN projected when making the decision, look for ESPN to do the same thing to the ACC that they did to the Big 12.

There are only 2 or 3, maybe 4 programs in total in the ACC that drive ratings. The rest of the money ESPN pays for the ACC package supports the ACC's version of the Big 12's leftovers. ESPN (Disney) will look quickly to find ways to cut expenses and the ACC contract is the next eyesore where cutting can happen, except that ESPN has the long term contract with the conference. So, how do they get rid of that? Destabilize the ACC the way they did the Big 12. And, that shouldn't be a problem since Clemson and Florida St. have had wandering eyes for years.
Forest Bueller_bf
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Even if it ends up a large G5 with the addition of 4 new solid G5 members, so long as they have a place in the 12 team playoff that's all the new conference could ask for. To be included.

Adding BYU, Cincy and two other solid teams would be a strong conference. Not the SEC, but a conference worth a spot in the playoffs.
BEAR 45
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Forest Bueller_bf said:

Even if it ends up a large G5 with the addition of 4 new solid G5 members, so long as they have a place in the 12 team playoff that's all the new conference could ask for. To be included.

Adding BYU, Cincy and two other solid teams would be a strong conference. Not the SEC, but a conference worth a spot in the playoffs.

This may be the best we can hope for and that will be the same for most college programs in the country, but that should not be the issue. Having a shot [ maybe ] at a playoff spot does NOTHING for the finances of a majority of the athletic programs in the country. Baylor has had one of the best women's basketball programs in the country for over a decade and it was still losing over $2 mill/year. Title IX REQUIRES equal treatment , but it is football that provides the money to meet that obligation. What is happening will be harmful to a lot more than just the football teams.
historian
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Competition is good for everyone, even ESPN.
Aberzombie1892
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historian said:

I know someone already posted this a few days ago:



Now that I've had some time to think about it, I have a few questions:

Does "Autonomy 5" mean Power 5? It's kind of hard to believe that an 8 team conference without the flagship schools would be considered P5. It would look like a smaller version of a G5 conference.

Is this authoritative? Who said this and can they be trusted? Again, it sounds too doubtful.

Does this mean the Big 12 champion will still have a guaranteed spot in the expanded playoffs?


BUT, if there is any chance of retaining P5 status, and therefore a guaranteed spot in the expanded 12 team playoff for the conference champ, then it might be in our interest to stick together (the remaining 8) and expand by adding BYU, the service academies, Houston, Cincinnati, etc.

A crazier idea would be for the "Big 12" minus 4 to spearhead the move to super conference & jump the gun on the SEC, etc by creating our own before they do: add those teams plus UCF, USF, Memphis, & maybe other independents, or poach other conferences.

All of this is hypothetical and farfetched and it's far more likely that we are going to end up in a place we don't like very much. The conference does not have bold leadership and dramatic changes would require just that. Texas & OU blew up the plans to expand the playoffs. If that still happens, no one knows what it will look like.


This issue is this: there is a difference between being in an autonomy conference and being paid autonomy conference money, and the Big 12 will remain the former and will lose the latter. On one hand, that should keep the remaining Big 12 members together under that banner, however, on the other hand, the other conferences (with the support of ESPN) could either vote or break off and exclude the Big 12 from continuing to be an autonomy conference at any time and that uncertainty would always hang over the conference.

It's a lose-lose in many ways.
historian
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Thanks for the clarification. It's always about the money.
Stefano DiMera
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Big 12 schools made $37 million last year.

Texas and OU leaving drop the value of the league 50-75%

That means the remaining 8 are worth approximately $10-18 million.

I would assume the goal is to cobble something to get to $25 -30 million tv contract..
BUGWBBear
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We'll get relegated to a conference level that the NFL and CFL could ignore without guilt.
Aberzombie1892
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historian said:

I know someone already posted this a few days ago:



Now that I've had some time to think about it, I have a few questions:

Does "Autonomy 5" mean Power 5? It's kind of hard to believe that an 8 team conference without the flagship schools would be considered P5. It would look like a smaller version of a G5 conference.

Is this authoritative? Who said this and can they be trusted? Again, it sounds too doubtful.

Does this mean the Big 12 champion will still have a guaranteed spot in the expanded playoffs?


BUT, if there is any chance of retaining P5 status, and therefore a guaranteed spot in the expanded 12 team playoff for the conference champ, then it might be in our interest to stick together (the remaining 8) and expand by adding BYU, the service academies, Houston, Cincinnati, etc.

A crazier idea would be for the "Big 12" minus 4 to spearhead the move to super conference & jump the gun on the SEC, etc by creating our own before they do: add those teams plus UCF, USF, Memphis, & maybe other independents, or poach other conferences.

All of this is hypothetical and farfetched and it's far more likely that we are going to end up in a place we don't like very much. The conference does not have bold leadership and dramatic changes would require just that. Texas & OU blew up the plans to expand the playoffs. If that still happens, no one knows what it will look like.
This is a lot to quote, but it's important to answer all of the questions/comments.

1. Does Autonomy 5 mean Power 5? Yes, however, please note that being part of the Autonomy 5 does not guarantee Power 5 money. The Big 12 remaining an Autonomy 5 conference for the time being may be what keeps the remaining 8 programs together even though the conference payouts would fall off of a cliff and be non-competitive with even the PAC.

2. Does this mean that the Big 12 champion will still have a guaranteed spot in the expanded playoffs? No. To clarify, no conference - Autonomy 5 or not - has a guaranteed spot in the expanded playoffs, so the Big 12 has not lost anything in regard to this specific issue.

3. Will the Big 12 remain an Autonomy 5 conference? Yes, unless the conferences choose to either (1) change the rules or (2) break off into their own league. It seems possible that the B1G and SEC will eventually break off, so the existing structure would be reworked at some point anyway.

4. Will the Big 12 expand by more than 2 teams? Not until the current media deal is over at the earliest, since doing so would unnecessarily water down conference payouts in a time where there is no other Autonomy 5 conference other than the Big 12 seriously eyeing G5 teams. 2 team expansion is necessary for the conference to produce its contractual inventory of games. Even after that deal is over, the Big 12 could choose to remain at 10 if the media says that doing so would maximize payouts.
historian
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Thanks for being so thorough.
FLBear5630
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Stay as 8, make OU & UT pay the fee to leave, and see how this plays out. if you need to add, you can in 2 years those schools will be there. There is no whale independent out there that is attainable to change the balance of power, ND is the only one.
IowaBear
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If the goal is to keep the B12 together they need to be proactively pursuing other programs. Respectable programs at that
Aberzombie1892
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RMF5630 said:

Stay as 8, make OU & UT pay the fee to leave, and see how this plays out. if you need to add, you can in 2 years those schools will be there. There is no whale independent out there that is attainable to change the balance of power, ND is the only one.
The issue with staying at 8 are the contractual commitments for media inventory.
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