Interesting stats but not very meaningful at this time of year since so many of the top schools, including us, camoflouge issues with padded stats against schedules largely inclusive of cupcakes. FG%, particularly for tall front lines like our's and other top programs, should be extremely high this time of year since top schools posts often tower over the small school posts they play against and therefore score rather easily under the basket or with rebound putbacks. We'll get a much better feel for the validity of those stats over thw next two weeks. Still, very interesting stuff to look at so thank you for taking the time to post them..

geewago said:

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It would be more accurate to say (so far) : We seldom shoot threes. And we aren't making free throws like we should.

I'll be very interested in the stats of one game about a month from now. UCONN

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Thanks for the stats and analysis. My theory is that we have too many who can make most layups, but aren't good natural shooters thus are poor at FTs. If you don't shoot FTs well in HS, it ain't likely to change in college.

Making 40% of treys is the equivalent of making 60% of twos. I'd like to see us shoot more treys unless contested.

GarlandBear84 said:

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Thanks for the stats and analysis. My theory is that we have too many who can make most layups, but aren't good natural shooters thus are poor at FTs. If you don't shoot FTs well in HS, it ain't likely to change in college.

Making 40% of treys is the equivalent of making 60% of twos. I'd like to see us shoot more treys unless contested.

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SMH, what's a "natural shooter"?

Free throws:
Smith, NaLyssa 11-20 .550
Cox, Lauren 3-8 .375
Egbo, Queen 8-25 .320
Richards, DiDi 2-8 .250
Ursin, Moon 0-3 .000

Totals 24-64 .375

Rest of Team 55-77 .714

Free throws have not been good, but it's not as bad as we might have thought. Players being fouled and missing free throws are mostly young bigs. Queen NEEDS to get it together. Lauren WILL get it together. I would guess NaLyssa is a better FT shooter than she has been so far.

Didi's FT statistics last year were 25-49, .510. It seems to me, this is something we'll have to live with. IMO, her strengths far outweigh her weaknesses.

GarlandBear84 said:

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Making 40% of treys is the equivalent of making 60% of twos. I'd like to see us shoot more treys unless contested.

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I was curious and went back and did the calculations by backing our 3 pointers out of the total shots made and attempted. Lady Bears are currently shooting 58.65% from inside the arc.

Yep, essentially equal until you factor in that we throw away many passes to the big girls or that when they get fouled they are our poor FT shooters.

Queen and Didi have poor form and may not ever become good FT shooters and their stats show they are our worst at the line. Poor shooting form is the opposite of what I meant by natural shooters.

Bone Squad said:

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I looked at the team national rankings in several statistical categories. Some surprised me. Some did not (although they made me groan to confirm what I already knew).

Turnovers (fewest) per game - 131st (15.7)
Turnover margin - 162nd (.5)
Assist/turnover ratio - 5th (1.56)
Assists per game - 2nd (24.5)
Field goal % - 1st (56.1%)
3 pt % - 10th (41.8%)
3 pt attempted - not ranked (the last ones listed were ranked 150th with 123 attempts. Baylor attempted 55)
Free throw % - 329th (56.0%)
Field goal % defense - 3rd (28.8%)
3 pt % defense - 207th (31.4%)

Observations:

• I have had a perception that we are missing too many good shots. That may be true, but I'll pump the brakes seeing as how we're doing better than any team in the country.
• What comes as no surprise: free throws are horrible. We literally are more likely to make a field goal than a free throw. This is embarrassing, and there is just no sugar coating it.
• Turnovers. This is obviously a problem and has been readily apparent in watching the games. It's not as bad as I thought it would be (we're middling, whereas I thought we would be near the bottom), but we're not going to be able to get away with that against good teams for long. To say the least, it is too much for a perennial elite team.
• BUT I am seeing a silver lining here. My biggest surprise, due to the excessive turnovers, was to see us as a top five team in A/TO ratio. Obviously those are being counterbalanced by the fact that we rack up a ton of assists. This is telling me that we have a very unselfish team, and that they actually do move the ball very well, but we are missing some polish and precision that needs to be present. I think this has everything to do with being forced to fit SG pegs into a PG hole. But every game gives Chloe and Juicy more experience running the point, and I think that the turnovers will slowly improve over the season. Whether they do is the key to the season.
• I believe that a number of comments on this board in the vein of "we can't shoot threes" are unwarranted. We're in the top 10, folks. Now, as can be expected with a Mulkey team, we don't build our offense on them and don't shoot them very often. We take the shot if it's there, and generally knock them down when we do. I'm ok with that. Personally, I get more frustrated with teams that just hang out on the perimeter and jack them up all night long, which I often interpret as being lazy and settling.
• Our three point defense has been an oft-cited concern. It's interesting to me, because if I were just told that we were holding opponents to 31%, I would have thought that was an acceptable number. But by comparison nationally, it ain't so hot. It needs work, for sure, but I still think some of the criticism in that area has been exaggerated.

Granted, these numbers are largely built on the backs of patsy opponents, but I think that is true for nearly all of the teams so far, so I suspect this balances out. If anyone has advanced metrics that take the strength of the opponent into account, I would be interested to see them.

The stats are here for anyone who cares to delve more deeply. https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-women/d1


It lends the relationship to the fact that KM is having to build her squad depth by playing 5 freshmen, a grad transfer learning a new position. We have Brown and Cox plus journeymen players like Landrum, Ursin and Richards while losing an experienced point guard right at the beginning of the season.

The team is 6-0 while learning the ropes, so perhaps at this early stage of the season,the old adage of "stats are for losers" might be considered as we continue on to build this team, step by step. However, at this early stage of the season, stats are rather inconclusive, while the team needs and performances are pretty well known..As long as we can outscore each opponent while building a winning team, we are progressing.

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TrustTheProcess said:

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I can't understand how an elite program has so many players who shoot the "easiest shoot in basketball" at such a low percentage.

You can look at back the last few years and this team has missed critical free-throws down the stretch that would've helped them close out a game or win a game.

I'm sure it's just as frustrating to Kim as it is to the players and fans.

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Thing is....the players can do something about it. But will they? Will it take another tournament disappointment for them to see the light? Just don't understand it.

Mulkey was on the Rudy's Coaches Show this week and commented about our poor FT shooting. She said:
You don't change shooting form of a college player (already too ingrained).
She tries different approaches such as making them run for missed FTs, psychological ploys, etc.
some of our players who you'd expect to be good are not making FTs this season.

GarlandBear84 said:

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Mulkey.
You don't change shooting form of a college player (already too ingrained).
.

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This principle also applies to other aspects of players games that they have conditioned themselves too through out their basketball career. Shooting form is the most difficult to change because during a season because it will affect your shooting which is even a considerable variable if you are only using your original form. It can be done individually by the player in the off season, just not during because there is not enough time available.

I often notice bad patterns that players have developed against the lesser competition at lower levels that impact their effectiveness when they face better players. They often are able to compensate weaknesses in certain area's through their superior height or athletic ability, but when they face better athletes and taller players they are exposed. Conscientious coaches will do their utmost to balance team wins with preparing their players to be able to excel at the next level as well.

It is however far easier to fix other bad habits than it is to fix bad shooting form, because those other bad habits usually fall into the category regular team preparation.

Let's revisit a few key stats now that we have gotten into the meat of our schedule.

• Turnovers. This was my biggest concern in the early season. It is also the area of most dramatic improvement. We've gone from 131st in the nation at 15.7 per game to currently 25th in the nation with 13.5. But even that does not tell the whole story. If you look at just the last 6 games, starting with UConn, we are averaging 9.5 per game. Of those games, we have only had double digit turnovers in two of them (Tech - 16 and TCU -10).

• Free throws. It ain't good, ladies and gents, but it's a little better, from 56% (329th) to 63.1% (298th).
• 3PT % Defense. This has actually gotten worse, likely as a result of the better competition, from 207th (31.4%) to now 239th (32.4%). I've said elsewhere that I have disagreed in past years with people saying this was a weakness for us, as the stats showed differently than certain memorable outlier games. This year, it looks to really be the best strategy to beat us (that and somehow neutralize our bigs the way Stanford did)...if the opponent has the guns to pull it off.

Here are three other areas I want to group together just because, in combination, they make for a truly formidable team. Field Goal % Defense - 1st in the country at 30.4%; Field Goal % - 3rd in the country at 51.6%. Rebounding margin - 1st in the country, out-rebounding opponents by 18.1. So how do you beat a team that scores at will, stifles your own offense, and beats you on the boards? Especially with our new and improved ability to take care of the ball? All I can say is that Tara Vanderveer deserves a big clap on the back for getting it done. On our best night, there are probably no more than 5 other teams that can hang with the Lady Bears.

Thanks for the analysis. I wish they'd adjust FG% to multiply the treys by 1.5 since you get three points instead of two.

Our FG% is so high because we don't shoot as many treys as most and we make a nice % of our twos and threes. OTOH our overall FG% defense is too high because teams try more threes against us and those should be adjusted by the 1.5.

I assume there are advanced metrics that account for things like that available. I personally would not know where to find them.

GarlandBear84 said:

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Thanks for the analysis. I wish they'd adjust FG% to multiply the treys by 1.5 since you get three points instead of two.

Our FG% is so high because we don't shoot as many treys as most and we make a nice % of our twos and threes. OTOH our overall FG% defense is too high because teams try more threes against us and those should be adjusted by the 1.5.

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The stat you are looking for is effective FG percentage. We are currently 14th in offensive eFG% and 5th in defensive FG%. Those numbers don't adjust for quality of opposition, so the true quality is even higher.

Thanks!

Most amazing stat to me:
Opponents are shooting 30.5% FG% overall, and 32.3% Three Point FG%.
That's inverted! That means our opponents are shooting a lower % from 2 point range than from 3 point range. Incredible!

Also, opponents have taken 464 3 point shots, on 978 total shots. 47% of opponent's shots are from 3 point range. Wow.

These stats speak a lot to our interior defense, and how difficult it is to score inside on Kalani and Lauren and Didi (and Nalyssa and Queen).