The Reveal... from the Committee

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2:37a, 2/11/19
Oregon will be Number 1.

The pundits on ESPN said Oregon is the best team in the country... mainly Landers and Antonelli..

Antonelli said there are five teams in the country that score very well... lots of offense... and she left off Baylor... saying those five teams (UCONN, Louisville, Oregon, Notre Dame, Miss State) shoot the 3 very well, but Baylor is a "2 team."

To advance to the Final Four, our 3-point defense has got to step up. Big time.
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fredbear
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4:11a, 2/11/19
Oregon has indeed made the case. And we continue to be slow to adjust to the opponents game plan be it three balls or driving to the basket. But I'd rather them keep squawking and have us play with a chip on our shoulder than have everyone say we are no. 1.
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3rdgenbear
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6:53a, 2/11/19
The Lady Bears control their own destiny and will remain as a one seed and remain at the top overall.

Oregon's play against Stanford was impressive but no more so than our wins against UConn and especially, South Carolina.



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4th and Inches
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7:32a, 2/11/19
The most important thing about Oregons win is it just happened... voters have short memories. A loss or big win early in the season doesnt have the same impact as one that just happened. Baylor is still one of the best teams in the country and deserves it current rank.

Oregon lost to the #23 ranked mich st lady spartans... they are beatable
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Old300Bear
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10:51a, 2/11/19
Stanford lost the post player that gave us so much trouble.
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OsoCoreyell
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11:54a, 2/11/19
What a load of crap. Baylor not as a 1 seed? Crazy talk.
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mimi25408
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12:02p, 2/11/19
I will say this.. during the Uconn game if Cox would have made those open three's she took or if Chole would have made those mid range early jumpers she usually makes we would have won by 25.

We had a bad game against Stanford and they took advantage. Stanford had a bad game against Oregon and they took advantage. Oregon had a bad game against Michigan and they took advantage... it happends.

Don't mean to be a debbie downer but Kim is going to have to figure something out this year. Everyone in the country knows how baylor plays, inside out. We are going to be a matchup nightmare for some teams but vice versa for us as well. Might not be height wise but definitely 3point shooting.
With the exception of moon, the fact that only post players is the next off our bench scares me to death. If Didi, Juicy, and chole get in foul trouble or are playing poorly what are we going to do? Play 5 post players??

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geewago
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In reply to mimi25408 • 12:36p, 2/11/19
mimi25408 said:


Don't mean to be a debbie downer but Kim is going to have to figure something out this year. Everyone in the country knows how baylor plays, inside out. We are going to be a matchup nightmare for some teams but vice versa for us as well. Might not be height wise but definitely 3point shooting.
With the exception of moon, the fact that only post players is the next off our bench scares me to death. If Didi, Juicy, and chole get in foul trouble or are playing poorly what are we going to do? Play 5 post players??

At this stage in the season, Oliver & DeCosta just might surprise us if they are put on the stage when it really matters. If Juicy & Didi played poorly or fouled out, the next player up knows what's on the line and they often come through. When you put a player in with a 25 point lead and one minute and 24 seconds left in the game it's just not the same challenge.
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fubar
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In reply to 3rdgenbear • 12:43p, 2/11/19
3rdgenbear said:
The Lady Bears control their own destiny and will remain as a one seed and remain at the top overall.

Oregon's play against Stanford was impressive but no more so than our wins against UConn and especially, South Carolina.



South Carolina is up to #11 in this week's AP poll. The win (a rout at that) in Columbia is looking better all the time.

Oregon picked up three #1 votes at our expense in the poll that came out today. We're still comfortably #1, and we'll be a #1 seed in March if we win out.

- Captain Obvious
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mimi25408
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In reply to geewago • 12:47p, 2/11/19
That's my point ... we need to get our guards in the sometimes outside of the last 2 minutes of the game. I know that kim is a defensive coach but I think they are getting better and we need to put them in games to build their confidence. Maybe not all at the same time but just more rotations. I wish kim would just let them play through some of their mistakes. Decosta and honesty both can be a huge game changer. Honesty is one of the best and purest shooters on the team. Decosta can hit the 3 and create her own shot. I would love to get our starting 5 some rest before the tourney.
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ScottS
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1:38p, 2/11/19
How can we be #1 overall in the poll, but a 2 seed?
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bearbone11
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1:44p, 2/11/19
Debbie Antonelli can say what she wants, but we will be a one seed in the reveal tonight, possibly number one overall. The resumes for Baylor, Louisville, and Oregon are very similar and they can probably be ranked in any order. Remember, the committee is not ranking the teams by how good they think they are, but by how deserving they are using the various metrics. This often leads to a lot of confusion. In any case, I am happy that our non-conference schedule was better this year so we can control our own destiny seeding wise.
R11
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geewago
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In reply to mimi25408 • 1:53p, 2/11/19
mimi25408 said:
That's my point ... we need to get our guards in the sometimes outside of the last 2 minutes of the game. I know that kim is a defensive coach but I think they are getting better and we need to put them in games to build their confidence. Maybe not all at the same time but just more rotations. I wish kim would just let them play through some of their mistakes. Decosta and honesty both can be a huge game changer. Honesty is one of the best and purest shooters on the team. Decosta can hit the 3 and create her own shot. I would love to get our starting 5 some rest before the tourney.
You'll get no argument out of me,
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BearFan33
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2:19p, 2/11/19
This BU team is more well rounded in my opinion. Two bigs can score, more shooters from mid range and even some 3 point shooting. Our defense is salty as always but we have more viable scoring options and can stay ahead of teams when they are shouting lights out and our bigs are having an off night. If teams should for their average or have a bad shooting night we beat the crap out of them. Put us as a number 2 seed at your own peril.
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WacoKelly83
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In reply to ScottS • 2:38p, 2/11/19
ScottS said:
How can we be #1 overall in the poll, but a 2 seed?

I don't think she meant we are a 2 seed. I understood her to say we are a team that shoots alot of 2 pointers which, by her definition, makes us weaker than teams that shoot a high number of 3's. We're still a one seed, just maybe not the top 1 seed according to the ESPN crew
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Texasjeremy
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2:44p, 2/11/19
CURRENT NATIONAL RANKINGS

SCORING MARGIN
1. Mississippi State +33.8
2. Oregon +28.9
3. Connecticut +27.5
4. Baylor +26.2
5. Notre Dame +25.0
8. Louisville +20.6

SCORING OFFENSE
1. Oregon 89.6
2. Mississippi State 88.2
3. Notre Dame 87.3
10. Baylor 81.8
13. Connecticut 80.5
17. Louisville 80.0

SCORING DEFENSE
10. Mississippi State 54.4
13. Connecticut 54.7
19. Baylor 55.6
59. Louisville 59.0
108. Oregon 61.7
134. Notre Dame 62.8

REBOUND MARGIN
1. Baylor +16.8
2. Mississippi State +15.3
16. Oregon +8.3
17. Notre Dame +8.3
32. Connecticut +6.8
115. Louisville +2.7

REBOUNDS PER GAME
2. Baylor 46.8
5. Mississippi State 45.2
17. Notre Dame 43.2
41. Connecticut 41.8
146. Oregon 38.2
158. Louisville 37.9

ASSISTS PER GAME
1. Baylor 23.2
5. Oregon 20.2
6. Notre Dame 20.0
7. Connecticut 19.4
18. Mississippi State 17.4
29. Louisville 16.6

TURNOVERS PER GAME
1. Oregon 10.5
2. Connecticut 11.2
26. Mississippi State 13.3
32. Louisville 13.5
38. Baylor 13.5
108. Notre Dame 15.0

PERSONAL FOULS PER GAME
1. Connecticut 11.7
3. Oregon 12.3
11. Notre Dame 13.7
55. Baylor 15.3
94. Mississippi State 16.1
158. Louisville 17.3

ASSIST TO TURNOVER RATIO
1. Oregon 1.91
2. Baylor 1.72
3. Connecticut 1.72
13. Notre Dame 1.31
14. Mississippi State 1.31
20. Louisville 1.25

STEALS PER GAME
86. Mississippi State 9.1
104. Louisville 8.8
105. Notre Dame 8.8
161. Connecticut 8.0
184. Baylor 7.7
188. Oregon 7.7

BLOCKED SHOTS PER GAME
1. Baylor 6.9
5. Mississippi State 6.3
12. Notre Dame 5.5
48. Louisville 4.4
101. Connecticut 3.8
205. Oregon 2.9

FG%
1. Oregon 52.5%
3. Notre Dame 51.3%
4. Baylor 50.7%
5. Mississippi State 49.8%
6. Connecticut 48.5%
12. Louisville 47.6%

FG% DEFENSE
1. Baylor 31.4%
7. Connecticut 33.9%
17. Mississippi State 35.3%
36. Notre Dame 36.1%
42. Louisville 36.3%
129. Oregon 38.9%

3PT FG %
1. Oregon 42.9%
11. Louisville 38.3%
12. Baylor 38.3%
22. Mississippi State 37.1%
33. Notre Dame 35.8%
43. Connecticut 35.3%

3PT FG% DEFENSE
12. Notre Dame 26.5%
22. Connecticut 27.2%
40. Louisville 27.7%
144. Mississippi State 30.6%
146. Oregon 30.7%
204. Baylor 31.7%

FT %
9. Oregon 77.3%
40. Louisville 74.1%
63. Mississippi State 73.1%
88. Notre Dame 72.1%
95. Connecticut 71.9%
273. Baylor 65.3%
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Eball
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3:32p, 2/11/19
Mind boggling to me that we have a better overall FG% defense than 3 pt defense....once again I am not saying we should not work very hard on defending the three but teams literally have to beat us by shooting threes and lots of them...it changes the way teams play us...which should work to our advantage. Our defense is so fricking good that teams have to shoot threes to have a chance...
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blackie
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In reply to WacoKelly83 • 3:40p, 2/11/19
WacoKelly83 said:
ScottS said:
How can we be #1 overall in the poll, but a 2 seed?

I don't think she meant we are a 2 seed. I understood her to say we are a team that shoots alot of 2 pointers which, by her definition, makes us weaker than teams that shoot a high number of 3's. We're still a one seed, just maybe not the top 1 seed according to the ESPN crew
Agree here. Some of the comments above seem to think some people are saying Baylor should not be a 1 seed. I don't think any of them are saying that. They are saying that Oregon possibly may be the OVERALL #1 seed.........and based on people, especially in the media, having a short memory, it will not surprise me to see them there. And since UL beat UConn just not long ago, we may find ourselves the third overall seed (still a one though).
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UBBY
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In reply to Eball • 4:05p, 2/11/19
Eball said:
Mind boggling to me that we have a better overall FG% defense than 3 pt defense....once again I am not saying we should not work very hard on defending the three but teams literally have to beat us by shooting threes and lots of them...it changes the way teams play us...which should work to our advantage. Our defense is so fricking good that teams have to shoot threes to have a chance...
That's how Kim likes it. Especially with the best duo of low posts in the country. Also #1 in blocked shots per game which forces it outside. FG% defense is an astoundingly low 31.4%.

It looks like the best way to beat the lady bears is to force them to the foul line and drain three's. Even though Kalani is quietly the best free throw shooter on the team.
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whitetrash
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In reply to Texasjeremy • 4:20p, 2/11/19
One stat the NCAA doesn't publish is 2-pt FG defense. Subtracting 3-pt defense from total FG defense, you get:


Baylor 31.2%
MissSt 36.9%
UConn 37.6%
Lville 40.0%
ND 40.5%
Oregon 43.5%


Breakdown of shots taken by opponents:

Baylor 3-pt 185 of 586 (46.7% of shots taken)
2-pt (209 of 670)

Oregon 3-pt 153 of 499 (35.7% of shots taken)
2-pt (390 of 897)

UConn 3-pt 131 of 481 (34.5% of shots taken)
2-pt (335 of 892)

ND 3-pt 136 of 513 (32.1% of shots taken)
2-pt (439 of 1085)

Lville 3-pt 113 of 408 (30.3% of shots taken)
2-pt (375 of 937)

MissSt 3-pt 102 of 333 (26.6% of shots taken)
2-pt (339 of 918)


Also, total shots per game by opponents:

MissSt 54.4
Lville 56.0
Baylor 57.1
Oregon 58.2
UConn 59.7
ND 63.9

What does this say about us? Our opponents live by the 3 die by the 3, usually by necessity in that they are afraid or unwilling to take the ball inside, or when they do, we steal the ball (or get a shotclock violation) and no shot gets off. So occasionally somebody gets hot from outside (e.g., Stanford, but our loss came as much from our lack of offense rather than lack of defense), but the law of averages eventually catches up or the opponents' legs go tired (e.g., ArizSt who challenged us early but ran out of gas and faded down the stretch).

What does it say about the other top teams? Oregon wins by outscoring their opponent; their defense is the weakest of the 6. ND is just ahead of Oregon, relying more on offense than defense. For all of McCowan's size inside for MissSt, their opponents aren't forced to rely on the 3 like ours. UConn and Lville are more balanced.

So we run the risk of encountering a hot-shooting opponent from behind the 3 line, and it has cost us in the past (most notably MissSt in 2017, and Lville to some extent in 2013), and still both games came down to the final possession in regulation.
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Eball
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5:16p, 2/11/19
Once again...I get that there are some teams we fear more than others in terms of match ups...not the team and coaches but us as fans!

I will say this again though...I truly believe we are every other teams most difficult match up because of our size and how much we take away from what they normally do.

I do believe that Oregon's offensive prowess is a hard match up as well (see Stanford) but I don't care how good you are offensively you will have an off night or two shooting and if Oregon does they can be beat see MSU game. In that game it was not so much as a terrible shooting night for Oregon as it was MSU shooting lights out Over 57% for the game FG's and Three pointer's both...

Great defense keeps you in games where you struggle shooting the ball and prevents teams from going off on you...Oregon or others may beat us but it will likely never be easy with the way we play defense.
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Lion82
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5:16p, 2/11/19
We lose when we shoot poorly and don't score 70 points. When we shoot decent and score 80 points we are almost unbeatable.

Nobody defends, rebounds or passes better than us.

If someone makes 15 3's against our defense and beats us then they deserve to win.
WNIT in '23
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whitetrash
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6:52p, 2/11/19
1 seed in Greensboro vs ND?

Looks like they have Oregon as the top and Lville as 2nd.
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whitetrash
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6:54p, 2/11/19
Creme says Portland and Albany are weak weak sauce. Greensboro as toughest (BU/ND/Md/SCar).
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bearbone11
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6:54p, 2/11/19
That's a cakewalk for Oregon. Would be a difficult region for us. Not sure why NC State is a 2 seed, they haven't beat anyone.
R11
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fubar
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6:55p, 2/11/19
CowU doesn't make the top 16. Won't be hosting if that holds.
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Bruiser85
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6:55p, 2/11/19
As usual, we get the short end of the stick.
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bearbone11
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6:59p, 2/11/19
Fortunately there is a long way to go. If I recall, we were ranked 9th in the first reveal last year and ended up at 5, so there is a lot of room to move.

Did they ever release the 1-16 ranking, or just the regions? From that it looks like they have Louisville and Oregon above us. Its hard to argue with that, but giving us Notre Dame as a 2 seed would be really bad seeding. No way they aren't a top 5 team, even if they aren't playing like it at the moment,
R11
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Baylor Dad in Va.
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7:04p, 2/11/19
It is a ridiculous seeding committee that is completely prejudiced against Baylor!! To put Baylor, the defending national champion Notre Dame, and the probably champion of the Big10 all in the same bracket is absurd.
I am livid with anger!

It better change when the final bracket comes out because this is not fair.
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Hairy Bear
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7:07p, 2/11/19
Our situation is not ideal, but how would you like to be the 1 seed at Albany with Yukon the 2 seed? With the parity that has developed, a traveling 1 seed should not have to face a local 2 seed opponent. In our case they put us in as a 1 seed, but did not give us a local 2 seed in Notre Dame which would have been the case in Chicago but we are in Greensboro.
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baylor1984
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7:19p, 2/11/19
Would love to see ND and Stanford switch regions.
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Brian Ethridge
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7:19p, 2/11/19
Staff
It's fun to debate now, but you gotta beat the team in front of you every game until there are no more.

Ain't afraid of that bracket.
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Baylor Dad in Va.
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In reply to Hairy Bear • 7:24p, 2/11/19
Hairy Bear said:
Our situation is not ideal, but how would you like to be the 1 seed at Albany with Yukon the 2 seed? With the parity that has developed, a traveling 1 seed should not have to face a local 2 seed opponent. In our case they put us in as a 1 seed, but did not give us a local 2 seed in Notre Dame which would have been the case in Chicago but we are in Greensboro.
Well I don't want to be in Albany with UConn, but I would almost guarantee you that we would be in the final four if we were to replace Louisville with Baylor in their bracket, or Oregon with Baylor in their bracket. Oregon and Louisville have practically no competition. Baylor is in the toughest bracket in the tournament at the moment. Don't forget that South Carolina in that bracket is playing practically at home, Maryland has a very strong team. I can tell you because I have watched them play and I live close to them. Baylor is better, and can beat them, but Maryland deserves to be and one of the other brackets.
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WacoKelly83
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7:27p, 2/11/19
I, for one, would not mind having ND in our region. They have a great backcourt but we would have a big advantage over Turner and Shepherd. IMHO. Their bigs don't have much range so Cox and Brown wouldn't have to move too far away from the basket on d. Just one way to look at it.
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whitetrash
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8:13p, 2/11/19
In a perfect world, the rankings of the teams in all 4 regions would add up to 34 each. Any region lower than 34 is too strong, anything higher too weak. Even if you rank #18 IowaSt as 15 and #20 Miami as 16, here is the relative strength of the 4 regions:

Greensboro:
1 BU
6 ND
7 MD
11 SC
Total 26

Albany:
5 MissSt
4 UConn
9 OreSt
16 Miami
Total 34

Chicago:
2 Lville
10 Stanford
8 Marquette
15 IowaSt
Total 35

Portland:
3 Oregon
12 NCSt
14 Iowa
13 Gonzaga
Total 42
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