The 3pt shot!

2,488 Views | 15 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by blueeyedbear
Eball
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I have been wanting to post about this in one place now for a while...it seems to come up in game posts all the time...

Do we shoot enough threes?
Do we guard the threes well enough?

I feel like we are fine in both areas and that over time Kim has shown an amazing ability to do what is best for her teams and the ultimate goal of a Championship.

I know some disagree and will cite various examples of failures on occasion but I would say you can also cite failures in a lot of areas for specific one game failures..FT shooting, foul trouble, rebounding, TO's, missing an abnormal amount of 3 ft bunnies.....etc....

I think some fixate on the 3 pt line and seem to think that in today's game you have to shoot a certain amount of threes no matter what....so what does everyone think?
longtimebear
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In the past we haven't had to shoot threes with the size we had down low. Although those 3 shots could have been widely available, Kalani and Lauren were shooting better percentages under the basket even with defenses packing the paint.

But with the loss of Kalani's size and accuracy all bets are off. Personally, I think the three ball would help us a lot especially if defenses decide to double Smith, Egbo and Cox.

That's my thinking. FWIW
jumpinjoe
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It's part of basketball that you can chose to use or chose to not use. As with any play from the other team, it needs to be defended against.
Joined BaylorFans in 1999 under username jumpinjoe. Have always been Jumpinjoe. Proud 4 Year Baylor letterman and 1968 graduate and charter member of Quartermiler U, produced school record in 400 IH.
keysjaws
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Those who can shoot 3's should do so when open, or with little time left on the shot clock. A long jump shot inside the 3 point line could probably have been taken outside the line with better ball movement....but in the "heat of battle" it may be difficult to make the correct decision. Juicy, Moon, and Te'a have been off, but taking more shots in the future should improve their %.
Eball
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I found it interesting as a case in point how we can over react to individual games as fans....the UL victory last week over Oregon...UL known for three point shooting beat an Oregon team also outside oriented...

Oregon shot 6-35 from Three....to lose
UL only made 5-18 themselves but they were much more efficient inside.

Oregon lost the overall rebound battle but got more than double the amount of OR's than UL 17-8 likely because of all the long rebounds from the many missed threes. Oregon has a stud inside in Hebard who only got 10 total shots all game....Moore, Ionescu and Sabbaly shot 27 threes combined making only 5...

I bet their fans gripe about too many threes what do you think?
blueeyedbear
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Ah, The 3 ball discussion. Lots of opinions.

E Ball is making a valid point - The percentage makes from in the paint is higher then the percentage makes from the arc in both the men's and women's game. The old adage live by the 3 die by the three is very real.

Lets look at the Oregon Louisville game - Lots of threes by both teams - also 3 games in 3 days for both teams. How do you take a 3 ball shooter out - you take away the legs by making them work hard on both ends of the floor. No surprise to me that both teams missed a lot of 3 balls - legs were tired from 2 games and playing a third - tired legs = missed shots from the arc. You have to factor that in.

My issue with CKM is the defense she uses has its roots in her playing and coaching days with Leon Barrymore before the 3 ball was introduced into the women's game. In those days perimeter players hung around 16 to 18 feet from the basket. Inside players then shot about 40 - 50 % in the paint and perimeter players shot about 25 - 35% so the Barrymore defense strategy to drop off perimeter players to help on drives to the basket made sense from a statistical sense.
However the game has changed - the 3 ball shooters are much better now and now they camp out 20-23' from the paint. What happens now if you drop off a 3 baller to help you have twice the distance to cover if the driver kicks the ball back out to the arch. How many times over the years have we seen BU defenders having to run at open 3 ballers ??? SWISH !!!
In the U Conn game last year Juicy hit two wide open 3 balls - what did Geno do ? he went to a man defense on Juicy and by man I mean a real man to man - NO DROPING OFF HER TO HELP. No more 3 balls from Juicy.
The women playing the game now grew up with the 3 ball - they are better shooters from the arc now then perimeter players were from 18' - 20' in the 70's & 80's into the 90's. Remember little McKenzie after the game shooting with her brother - she wasn't practicing lay ups !!!! Good 3 ballers today are 40.0% shooters. The really good one like the Robertson gal from Oklahoma are close to 50.0%. The gap between inside and outside has narrowed. Today inside is high 40's to middle 50's and the arc is 35 - 40.
Its only one more point but for some reason there is a momentum change associated with it that I cannot explain that seems to make a made three more impressive. However the real danger with the 3 ball is when they come in sequence - it takes three 2's to equal 2 threes and that's where the stats get squirrely.

I think the answer to Eball question is do we shoot enough 3 balls is NO
Do we need to shoot more 3 balls ? - We need to shoot more smarter 3 balls - have more plays designed that set up Juicy, Cooper, Cox and Moon just like we have for the paint players.
More volume does not necessarily mean more makes - still need to play the percentages. If the inside is there - take it if not stop forcing it and kick the ball back out and start over.

Need to stop leaving proven 3 ballers open to help down low.
In the Oregon State loss the PG for Oregon State commented on how as she was driving to the paint she was watching Chou to see if she dropped down to help or stayed with the shooter - when she dropped down she kicked over to the shooter - swish end of any BU hope to win the game - everyone knows how we defend - its in their scouting reports !!!! Its Baylor's Kryptonite !!!
setshot
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Thirty five three point shots is too many, an imbalance created by an off day from the perimeter and a determination to find a shooting rhythm rather than change emphasis and penetrate. It also likely reflects the decision by Louisville to give them the outside shot until they start making them. I did not watch the game, but I have watched many similar ones and they all reflect in-game adjustments, or the lack of them, by coaches and teams. Oregon is normally a very good three point shooting team, soundly beating Stanford on the Cardinal's home court with extraordinary shooting, then losing to them in the conference tournament when their shooting from the arc ceased to be effective. They are committed to that shot, and it does bite them occasionally.

Should Baylor shoot more threes? Probably-- but when they are completely dominant inside they just don't.....
One of the few players at Baylor who seemed to shoot the three with consistency was McKenzie Robertson.
It was her primary weapon and she was confident in her willingness to employ it. We have had others who, in specific games put up double digit three point shots, but those were rare instances. I can testify that shooters have to shoot themselves out of a slump, and if they are both accurate and prolific, coaches allow that because it pays off in the longer scheme.

I have seen Mulkey demand that her perimeter shooters be more willing to let fly, Landrum among them. She had to beg Emily Niemann to shoot three point shots, because Emily was very team oriented and did not seem to feel that it was appropriate to her role. She had been primarily an interior player in high school, a very skilled one, and never seemed too comfortable with the spotlight being the long rifle on that team. She destroyed very few teams until the Lady Bear began their drive to the national championship, and her marksmanship suddenly commanded the full attention of the opponents, culminating in the remarkable shot making in the first half of the Finals which broke the back of the Michigan State team.

My problem with Baylor's approach is that they almost never use the three point shot as the first option, and they have rarely had a creative approach to shooting it. Few of their players have been very good at creating their own shot out there, and many times passers have failed to locate their open teammates, showing a preference for the inside pass, even when it is not really open. For instance, in the transition game they have often had a player on the wing or in the corner and have not found them, opting instead to take the ball into defenders in the paint. There is nothing wrong with this option, but it prevents the Lady Bears from forcing teams to react to the spacing of the court, and wide open threes in transition have a higher percentage of success than any other attempts from that area.

Both Cooper and Landrum are very competent three point shooters, though Juicy seems to be a streak shooter, and Ursin as well as Bickle are, as well. But Baylor is a team that lives on the high/low post game and sometimes to their detriment, try to force the ball into the deep paint when there is little to be gained by doing so. Mulkey is not responsible for that, her players are -- it is a matter of judgment.

Landrum is not very creative with her shot, using it primarily when she is left wide open, but she has NBA range and great accuracy in practice. I would love to see her shoot at least eight to ten three point shots in most games. Ursin is also a very good shooter from the arc and can create her own shot, as teams have to respect her quickness. Shooting in the game situation is different from shooting in practice, as we found out with Imani Wright, but familiarity does not breed contempt when it comes to long range shooting, it breeds confidence. We seem to be less confident than most teams when it comes to shooting from the perimeter, and that probably needs to change at some point.
Lone Star
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The "live by the 3, die by the 3" was my comment on another post when UL beat Oregon.

The other one is "a tiger rarely changes stripes". You won't change Oregon and you won't change BU.

Now, that being said, I like the higher percentage shot (BU) inside versus the lower percentage shot (3-pt).

If you look at Oregon's losses (last year), they were mostly on poor 3-point shooting performances. The only downside with BU is that our size is not near what it was last year with Kalani. LC changes some of that with her reach.

I agree we should branch out a little but more and take some more 3's to keep people honest however, the one shot that we really need (and had last year) is the mid-range jumper. Chloe Jackson was deadly from mid-range and really was the key to last year (along with our defense).
setshot
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Defending the three point shot requires an adjustment in the thought process of the defenders. They normally allow 20 to 30 percent shooters room and invite them to take bad shots from outside in preference to opening up driving lanes to the paint. In other words, they drop off and help against penetration, then attempt to bother the three point shooter by rushing at them and forcing them to hurry the shot or put it on the floor in an attempt to get past the defender for a midrange shot or an attempt at the rim. Baylor has had some success with that approach but against good shooting teams it has cost them dearly in the playoffs.

When the Baylor defender is equal or superior to the opponent, close, measurably precise proximity impedes easy access to passes and forces them out of their comfort zone. The defender must focus on one primary task, and that is to prevent an open shot at the basket. Screens can be defended by using the defender on the screener to jump over for a double team, forcing the potential shooter to give up the ball or risk a turnover, and if the screener is open, help defenders can cover a path to the basket and the double team can quickly adjust. Since something must be given up by this assignment, mobility and a determined effort to take away the primary offensive scheme, centered on getting open looks from the perimeter and forcing the offense into a less desirable option, is the larger task.

The scouting report should inform the defender of the strength of the offensive player, which hand to take away, the tendencies to go right or left, the favored locations on the floor where they prefer to shoot, whether they like to drive the baseline, how willing they are to go to the rim, do they possess a crossover dribble and when are they most likely to use it, where do they prefer to take midrange shots, how effectively do they handle the ball, how fast and how quick they are and how do they use this, and so on.. Information of this kind enables a player to make decisions about proximity and teammates to plan the "help defense" for specific players.

The other major task must be to forgo the usual rush to the backboard by maintaining position on the outside players when the ball goes up so that long rebounds do not automatically become additional offensive opportunities. The normal tendency of the defenders when the ball goes up is to turn and focus on the rebound, sagging in toward the middle. The blocking out of offensive players out away from the basket is one of the hardest, and often the most neglected tasks of the defender. I am not sure how many coaches insist on this in practice because it is a trade off that they are uncomfortable with making.

Baylor has been burned by individual players who got hot from the arc and Baylor did not make the proper adjustment to that. Tynice Martin in the conference tournament two years ago comes to mind. She was on a roll coming into that game and Baylor did not take the ball out of her hands and paid a dear price for it. Then the little guard from Mississippi State burned us badly, scoring 35 points above her average in their overtime victory. Many of those points came off of a baseline screen that time and again found her wide open in the corner, the shortest of the three point shots. We never adjusted to that, and never forced someone else to beat us.

To be fair, she also hit the game winning shot against UCONN in the next game, the semifinals of the Final Four, when she singled up against the UCONN defender without enough help to force her to give up the ball, so Geno failed to adjust in that situation. No team should ever allow one player to continually demand the ball and score with it, they have to adjust and make someone else beat them.

When a player not normally a big scorer gets hot and the team around him/her reacts by feeding them the ball, the defense must change their focus accordingly, but at every level all the way to the NBA, there is all too often a continuation of the game plan and preparation that no longer really applies. Three point shooting teams are conditioned and taught to look for the open shooter until they find one or two who are on their game, then they try to get them the ball. It is a fallacy to think that outside shooters are selfish because they are shooting from distance instead of penetrating or looking for the interior player first. The long ball is their weapon of choice and it counts for more when it goes in, they believe in it and are committed to it. The defense must be equally committed to making it a less desirable option.

It is as much a battle of wills as it is one of strategy and technique. Didi Richards knows that and normally demonstrates how to defend it as well as any Baylor defender in memory. She takes it personally when the offensive player she is assigned to guard scores, particularly when she knows it is because of a temporary lack of focus. I enjoy watching her play defense as much as I have enjoyed the fine scorers in our storied history. Landrum, who often lost focus as a freshman, has become one of the best defenders in our history.
Those two players, along with Cooper and Ursin, form a solid core of perimeter defenders who should take us far in the NCAA Tournament, and if Cox returns in playoff condition, the best overall defender in the women's game makes this a formidable defensive unit, experienced and mentally prepared for the long grind.
blueeyedbear
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Set shot - those were two excellent posts !!

I had high hopes after last years final 4 that we finally realized that you have to guard the really good 3 ballers 100.0% of the time - you just can't turn them lose.
DiDi and Juicy took Sabrina off her game and DiDi pestered Ogunbowale and then Moon late in the game stuck on her like Velcro and Chloe had some success with Mabrey was critical in wining those games.
Your point of blocking 3 ballers out so they can't get to long rebounds was right on point !!!!

We do not have the presence in the paint now like we used to so we have to adjust to what we do have - we have to improvise, adapt, overcome - My gosh the talent is there to do it - the ladies just need to stay within their capabilities, play to their strengths and correct the things that are correctable.

I agree 10 - 12 3 balls a game is about right. But lets not make half those attempts throw it up and hope for the best with 1 or 2 seconds on the clock. Incorporate the 3 ballers into the flow of the offense. We have the shooters.

Now if we can fix the free throw line boogie man
Lion82
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Any team that could put Kalani and Lauren on the floor at the same time wouldn't shoot a lot of 3's either.
Teams rely on the 3 because they can't recruit size. UCONN is not as good as it once was because of its recent lack of a dominant interior players.

Kim's style of play hasn't been in vogue for a while. Your heard Kim have a little fun with this fact after the NC game win. She really enjoyed having another national championship run using great defense and rebounding as the cornerstone.



WNIT in '23
Eball
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Ok...over under 10 three point attempts by our Lady Bears tonight? I say under...but if Bickle gets some run of more than 20 minutes I will say 12...
Eball
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Eball said:

Ok...over under 10 three point attempts by our Lady Bears tonight? I say under...but if Bickle gets some run of more than 20 minutes I will say 12...
well we took 13...took 9 by half and then only 4 in the second half...
Eball
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Ok we will call this the 3pt watch thread:

last night we shot 4-13 Threes 30.8%
We held GA to 5-24 20.8%

Was it a good night or a bad night for Three taking and defending?
setshot
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13 three point shots seems to be about right for this group unless they are shooting a very high percentage, in which case they should feed the hot shooters. They are better than a 30% performance last night would indicate, and I think that the games ahead will find them proving that.

Lion is exactly right about last year being a team that bullied opponents in the interior (much as South Carolina bullied us in the absence of Cox), so the paucity of three point shooters other than Landrum kept our numbers down, and rightfully so. But ideally, the inside game should provide opportunities for good three point shooters to spot up and take advantage of collapsing defenses.

Good ball reversal invariably opens up the wing and corner spots and makes opponents vulnerable when they sell out to flood the interior as teams have done against us in the years when we dominated inside. Cox and Brown were sometimes guilty of trying to force the shot against the crowd in there, but both were very good passers and found the open shooters, particularly Chloe Jackson, who did not shoot three point shots, but was deadly in the midrange areas.

Landrum and occasionally Ursin did profit from the unselfish play of our two post players, however, though neither were prolific three point shooters and sometimes passed up opportunities that were there for them. I have seen both forgo three point opportunities and try to force the ball into the post, only to have a turnover as a result. Too much unselfishness sometimes hurts a team and our determination to feed the post players when they are either not open or not properly positioned to do anything with the ball has been a major source of our turnovers against collapsing defenses.

Neither Smith nor Egbo have yet become adept at spotting the open players when the ball goes into the post. Both tend to force shots occasionally, but they are both quick and difficult to guard, so defenses have fouled them and sent them to the line on some of those contested plays. While that is a desirable outcome, I look for them to become better at recognizing developing double teams and know instinctively where the open look will be as a result of them.

The ball that goes in should go back out immediately when teams are collapsing, either for an open shot or for a reset by the post player for a better angle at the basket and a more open opportunity to take advantage of it.
Brown, in particular, became aware of her place on the floor and often stopped trying to force the shot when she was too deep in the paint to have a good angle for it. That court awareness comes with experience and confidence in one's teammates that giving the ball up will enable open shots or return passes when the post has repositioned for it.

Egbo, in particular, needs to adapt to the defenses just a bit more. Her passing skills are really improving, as are those of NaLyssa Smith. We know that Cox is an outstanding passer, and we have missed her role in facilitating the offense. Bickle, though undersized, has great court awareness and the offense is in good hands when it goes through her in the high post. That is why she is on the floor so much in the absence of Cox. Cooper and Landrum are both quality shooters from the arc and Bickle will find them when they are open. And oh, by the way, Caitlin can shoot the three as well as anyone, so defenses have to account for that, too.
jumpinjoe
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Setshot, Chloe Jackson was money from the 13-15 foot midrange shot, either left or right of the key. Has anyone yet shown that they can fill her shoes from there?
Joined BaylorFans in 1999 under username jumpinjoe. Have always been Jumpinjoe. Proud 4 Year Baylor letterman and 1968 graduate and charter member of Quartermiler U, produced school record in 400 IH.
blueeyedbear
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jumpinjoe said:

Setshot, Chloe Jackson was money from the 13-15 foot midrange shot, either left or right of the key. Has anyone yet shown that they can fill her shoes from there?
Juicy and Moon have that shot in their arsenal - like to see more of it from them. Really put the defense in a quandary - do they over defend Juicy and Moon at the arc and they drive right by them for the layup or do they play to defend the drive and Juicy and Moon hit the pull up mid ranger.
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