Recession is Coming

8,947 Views | 158 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Golem
Doc Holliday
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Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.

The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.

Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.

Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.

Be prepared.
ilbb990912
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Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Doc Holliday
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ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
303Bear
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ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Dems playing 4D chess with student loan forgiveness. Devalue the currency so much that the debt is effectively worthless. What is $30k in loans when most starting jobs pay $100k a year?

Ignore, of course, that this will mean a new "starter" home costs $1mm and you cannot buy cars or food...
303Bear
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Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).
Doc Holliday
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303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).
Inflation is so bad that the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433/month).

The poor are really screwed.
Robert Wilson
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Doc Holliday said:

303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).
Inflation is so bad that the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433/month).

The poor are really screwed.
I think this is one of the big drivers for Biden polling so badly. Rank and file people are feeling it at the gas pump and in the grocery store.
Doc Holliday
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Robert Wilson said:

Doc Holliday said:

303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).
Inflation is so bad that the average U.S. household has to spend an extra $5,200 this year ($433/month).

The poor are really screwed.
I think this is one of the big drivers for Biden polling so badly. Rank and file people are feeling it at the gas pump and in the grocery store.
They'll really feel it going into bankruptcy with no available jobs.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yes. The FED should have acted 18-24 months ago. I hate to admit it, but Donald Trump shoulders some of the blame here. His bullying of Jerome Powell made Powell do nothing as far as raising interest rates and now the chickens are coming home to roost.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
BearFan33
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When the republicans take the House, Joe won't be able to spend his way out of the recession. That is of course if he hasn't resigned by then.
timetraveler
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Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
J.R.
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housing market about to blow up!
william
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{ sipping coffee }

{ eating donut }

- KKM

the fed is always late.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/30-day-federal-fund.html
lennybrucewasnotafraidnopenosirreebobtail.....
Doc Holliday
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timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
timetraveler
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Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
Doc Holliday
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timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?
Wrecks Quan Dough
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Maybe we could tell people to shutter their businesses and not go to their jobs. We could then print more money--give everyone a trillion dollar coin--and say two decades to flatten the standard of living.
Wrecks Quan Dough
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J.R. said:

housing market about to blow up!


You're talking about a value implosion, right?
timetraveler
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Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?
exactly
Doc Holliday
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timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?
exactly
Enlighten me.
william
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emmenez dans vos bunkers, citoyens!



- KKM

{ eating MRE }
Canon
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303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).


Had Brandon literally done NOTHING, the economy would still be in relatively good shape. The natural re-ignition after the government imposed shut down would have lowered unemployment. The reduced number of illegals would have kept wages a bit higher, the domestic energy industry would have kept gas prices lower.

All he had to do was nothing. He couldn't even get that right.
muddybrazos
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Canon said:

303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).


Had Brandon literally done NOTHING, the economy would still be in relatively good shape. The natural re-ignition after the government imposed shut down would have lowered unemployment. The reduced number of illegals would have kept wages a bit higher, the domestic energy industry would have kept gas prices lower.

All he had to do was nothing. He couldn't even get that right.
You're assuming this wasnt done by design bc it was. They could reverse the drilling stuff now if they wanted but they're not doing it. This is an orchestrated plan. I don't even want to know what kind of terrorism and false flags they have in store for the run up to the midterms.
Canon
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muddybrazos said:

Canon said:

303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).


Had Brandon literally done NOTHING, the economy would still be in relatively good shape. The natural re-ignition after the government imposed shut down would have lowered unemployment. The reduced number of illegals would have kept wages a bit higher, the domestic energy industry would have kept gas prices lower.

All he had to do was nothing. He couldn't even get that right.
You're assuming this wasnt done by design bc it was. They could reverse the drilling stuff now if they wanted but they're not doing it. This is an orchestrated plan. I don't even want to know what kind of terrorism and false flags they have in store for the run up to the midterms.


The left does indeed hate America and have been working tirelessly for 50+ years to destroy it.
timetraveler
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Canon said:

muddybrazos said:

Canon said:

303Bear said:

Doc Holliday said:

ilbb990912 said:

Fed has painted themselves into a bad corner. They can't raise interest rates now enough to combat the inflation rate that we are already seeing, or it will really push us into a worse recession more quickly.

Conversely, as we continue to trend into a recession, the Fed has no wiggle room to lower rates to combat the sting of a bad recession.

Too much quantitative easing over the years will catch up eventually....
Yep.

Bloomberg and other financial news outlets are expecting the same, which is saying something because they've been in the business of downplaying Biden's disastrous economic choices.

And just like inflation was supposedly transitory, team Biden did everything they could to ignore and downplay it into the situation we're in now. They'll do the same downplaying of this recession.
Correct. Had the Fed begun rate increases a year ago, there may have been a chance to mitigate inflation, but there was too much political pressure not to put a lid on the great economic recovery brought to you by JB (really just the partial re-start of the economy that was artificially shut down most of 2020).


Had Brandon literally done NOTHING, the economy would still be in relatively good shape. The natural re-ignition after the government imposed shut down would have lowered unemployment. The reduced number of illegals would have kept wages a bit higher, the domestic energy industry would have kept gas prices lower.

All he had to do was nothing. He couldn't even get that right.
You're assuming this wasnt done by design bc it was. They could reverse the drilling stuff now if they wanted but they're not doing it. This is an orchestrated plan. I don't even want to know what kind of terrorism and false flags they have in store for the run up to the midterms.


The left does indeed hate America and have been working tirelessly for 50+ years to destroy it.
It's good to know you credit the left to be tireless workers
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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J.R. said:

housing market about to blow up!
Not in Texas. We've got a s h i t pot full of Californians, Arizonans, Oregonians, Washingtonians, New Yorkers, etc. invading our western, eastern, and northern borders. The demand far outstrips the supply. Higher interest rates you say? People gotta live somewhere. Most of these refugees arrive with piles of cash after selling their homes.
"Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up!"

-- Barack Obama
Bexar Pitts
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Doc Holliday said:

Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.

The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.

Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.

Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.

Be prepared.
2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html
william
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agarrela su caballos contrarios....

up from 0.9 from last I peeked.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

- CFA KKM

... or was that popped. or pooped.

- the randy stacker

{ eating PM donut }

BID.
lennybrucewasnotafraidnopenosirreebobtail.....
william
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the new pce estimate is here......

- kkm

.... the new pce estimate is here!

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/pce?utm_source=cvent&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pce



lennybrucewasnotafraidnopenosirreebobtail.....
Doc Holliday
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Bexar Pitts said:

Doc Holliday said:

Not just recession, but potentially a full blown depression.

The 30 and 5 year treasury yields inverted on Monday. 10 out of 11 times this has happened, a recession followed 8 to 24 months later and we're in the worst economic situation since the 1930s.

Real inflation based on measurements we used to use in the 80's and 90's is close to 20%.

Supply and demand will drop catastrophically and pork barrel spending isn't going to fix the problem.

Be prepared.
2's and 10's just inverted this afternoon... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html
Uh oh
D. C. Bear
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timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?
exactly
Please explain why everything's great.
We could all use some good news.
GrowlTowel
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timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.


Mostly because you are a ******.
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
GrowlTowel
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Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?


He doesn't have that talking point. Might be in the noon blast email so give him a couple of hours to cut and paste.
Your ideas are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
timetraveler
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GrowlTowel said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Doc Holliday said:

timetraveler said:

Single indicators to predict economy growth reminds me of old boomers talking about time of possession in football games.
A single indicator (created through several factors) with a 90.91% correlation/prediction to economic recession.

Reminds me of basic logic.
Basic statistics would argue against your "basic logic"
What basic statistics?


He doesn't have that talking point. Might be in the noon blast email so give him a couple of hours to cut and paste.
100% chance a male will be elected president. 99% a white male will be. Please don't argue with me. This indicator will take at least 100 years to change.

You guys are the dumbest inbred ****ers on this site.
J.R.
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Amal Shuq-Up said:

J.R. said:

housing market about to blow up!


You're talking about a value implosion, right?
yes
 
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