How to Break Russia's Blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea Ports

1,541 Views | 35 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by jupiter
jupiter
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Putin's illegal actions are destroying Kyiv's economy and causing global hunger. The US and allies need to protect grain ships.



Quote:



A second challenge will be clearing mines, because both the Ukrainians and Russians have used them to try and control the seas along the Ukrainian coast. NATO has a standing force of minesweepers for exactly this purpose. This flotilla is operating under the command of one of my successors as supreme allied commander, General Tod Wolters.

Third, the nations carrying out any blockade running would need to work with the major shipping countries and the international merchants who carry and own the grain and other products. This could be organized by the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London. Part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in organizing international responses to piracy off the coast of Africa when I was NATO commander.

Lastly, there is the task of informing Russia of the plan and ensuring that it understands that the coalition conducting the operation will tolerate no interference but also has no wish to enter combat with the Russian Black Sea fleet. Moscow will likely bluster, but the idea of it attacking NATO warships in international waters is low. If, against the odds, the Russians did something stupid, it would be met with a proportional use of force.

We have reached a pivotal point: Grain shipments are cut off, the Ukrainian economy is devastated, and the coming food crisis must be avoided. The democratic allies should explore an Operation Earnest Will-style approach. Simply allowing Putin to have his way on the high seas cannot continue.

Russia-Ukraine War: Break Putin's Blockade of Black Sea Wheat Ports - Bloomberg
jupiter
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Harrison Bergeron
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Put a Biden in charge of the Russian army?
jupiter
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or use Kaliningrad as a bargaining chip

Moscow FUMES over EU blockade of Kaliningrad - YouTube
Redbrickbear
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Maybe its time to negotiate an end to this bloody war...before famine hits the 3rd world/developing countries causing mass starvation and the US-EU stumble into a nuclear war.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114392

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/06/15/negotiating-to-end-the-ukraine-war-isnt-appeasement-00039798

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2022/06/18/time_to_negotiate_an_end_to_russia-ukraine_war_572473.html

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/26/when-and-how-might-the-war-in-ukraine-end

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/02/is-it-time-for-ukraine-to-split-up/283967/

[the possibility that the country could break up is again coming to the fore. In a recent article, Alexander Motyl, a professor at Rutgers University and an expert on Ukrainian affairs, makes the provocative argument that this might just be the best thing that could happen. I'm not arguing necessarily that Ukraine should split up. I am saying, however, that were it to split, were something like that to occur, and especially if those three problematic provinces the two in the (eastern region of the) Donbas, Luhansk and Donetsk, and arguably even the Crimea were to leave, Ukraine frankly would be better off....So objectively if one were to imagine Ukraine without these two or three provinces, the economy would automatically improve, the politics would automatically improve, Ukraine would automatically become more democratic, richer, more prosperous, and stable.]
Bear8084
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https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind executed bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
Redbrickbear
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Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.




Bear8084
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Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
Redbrickbear
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Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.


Bear8084
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Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Redbrickbear
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Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.
Guy Noir
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Guy Noir
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If countries are starving where is the UN?
Bear8084
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Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
Doc Holliday
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jupiter said:

Putin's illegal actions are destroying Kyiv's economy and causing global hunger. The US and allies need to protect grain ships.
The US, NATO and Western allies can transport tons of military equipment to Ukraine while US taxpayers have paid Ukraine over $50 billion in support...but we can't handle grain ships and wheat fields, or just help with food?

Redbrickbear
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Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.
C. Jordan
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jupiter said:

Putin's illegal actions are destroying Kyiv's economy and causing global hunger. The US and allies need to protect grain ships.



Quote:



A second challenge will be clearing mines, because both the Ukrainians and Russians have used them to try and control the seas along the Ukrainian coast. NATO has a standing force of minesweepers for exactly this purpose. This flotilla is operating under the command of one of my successors as supreme allied commander, General Tod Wolters.

Third, the nations carrying out any blockade running would need to work with the major shipping countries and the international merchants who carry and own the grain and other products. This could be organized by the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London. Part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in organizing international responses to piracy off the coast of Africa when I was NATO commander.

Lastly, there is the task of informing Russia of the plan and ensuring that it understands that the coalition conducting the operation will tolerate no interference but also has no wish to enter combat with the Russian Black Sea fleet. Moscow will likely bluster, but the idea of it attacking NATO warships in international waters is low. If, against the odds, the Russians did something stupid, it would be met with a proportional use of force.

We have reached a pivotal point: Grain shipments are cut off, the Ukrainian economy is devastated, and the coming food crisis must be avoided. The democratic allies should explore an Operation Earnest Will-style approach. Simply allowing Putin to have his way on the high seas cannot continue.

Russia-Ukraine War: Break Putin's Blockade of Black Sea Wheat Ports - Bloomberg
This sounds like a good way to start WWIII.
Bear8084
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Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a land they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
Bear8084
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C. Jordan said:

jupiter said:

Putin's illegal actions are destroying Kyiv's economy and causing global hunger. The US and allies need to protect grain ships.



Quote:



A second challenge will be clearing mines, because both the Ukrainians and Russians have used them to try and control the seas along the Ukrainian coast. NATO has a standing force of minesweepers for exactly this purpose. This flotilla is operating under the command of one of my successors as supreme allied commander, General Tod Wolters.

Third, the nations carrying out any blockade running would need to work with the major shipping countries and the international merchants who carry and own the grain and other products. This could be organized by the International Maritime Organization, headquartered in London. Part of the UN, the IMO played a similar role in organizing international responses to piracy off the coast of Africa when I was NATO commander.

Lastly, there is the task of informing Russia of the plan and ensuring that it understands that the coalition conducting the operation will tolerate no interference but also has no wish to enter combat with the Russian Black Sea fleet. Moscow will likely bluster, but the idea of it attacking NATO warships in international waters is low. If, against the odds, the Russians did something stupid, it would be met with a proportional use of force.

We have reached a pivotal point: Grain shipments are cut off, the Ukrainian economy is devastated, and the coming food crisis must be avoided. The democratic allies should explore an Operation Earnest Will-style approach. Simply allowing Putin to have his way on the high seas cannot continue.

Russia-Ukraine War: Break Putin's Blockade of Black Sea Wheat Ports - Bloomberg
This sounds like a good way to start WWIII.


Well, invading Ukraine and touching off a massive land war not seen in that part of the world in 80 years is also a good way to try and start WWIII too.
Redbrickbear
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Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a Lan they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
The Russian forces are not strong enough to take Central & Western Ukraine (areas populated by ethnic Ukrainians) right now at this very moment.

And will never be able to take those areas if they join EU-NATO.

So why do you keep repeating "it won't stop them" like some kind of mantra?

Russia has already been stopped militarily on the ground...and if the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO any further Russian attack would mean the destruction of the Russian state.

Wrecks Quan Dough
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
And Putin is starting to grumble about Latvia now.
Bear8084
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a Lan they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
The Russian forces are not strong enough to take Central & Western Ukraine (areas populated by ethnic Ukrainians) right now at this very moment.

And will never be able to take those areas if they join EU-NATO.

So why do you keep repeating "it won't stop them" like some kind of mantra?

Russia has already been stopped militarily on the ground...and if the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO any further Russian attack would mean the destruction of the Russian state.




Because we will be right back here in 8-10 years, just like in 2014. Putin and Russia have shown this over and over again.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
He Hate Me said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
And Putin is starting to grumble about Latvia now.
And he can grumble about the Baltic States all he wants.

They are now EU-NATO members and an attack on them would mean the destruction of his whole armed forces...and he and the Russian leadership know it.

Kim Jong-Un complains about South Korea all the time...and says it belongs to North Korea. But his barking means nothing. North Korea can not conquer the 50 million person, rich, developed, tech advanced South under USA protection.

Putin might want to do lots of things...but he militarily and economically can't
Wrecks Quan Dough
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

He Hate Me said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
And Putin is starting to grumble about Latvia now.
And he can grumble about the Baltic States all he wants.

They are now EU-NATO members and an attack on them would mean the destruction of his whole armed forces...and he and the Russian leadership know it.


Maybe, but Putin seems to be in a gambling mood recently.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a Lan they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
The Russian forces are not strong enough to take Central & Western Ukraine (areas populated by ethnic Ukrainians) right now at this very moment.

And will never be able to take those areas if they join EU-NATO.

So why do you keep repeating "it won't stop them" like some kind of mantra?

Russia has already been stopped militarily on the ground...and if the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO any further Russian attack would mean the destruction of the Russian state.




Because we will be right back here in 8-10 years, just like in 2014. Putin and Russia have shown this over and over again.
Lets play that out.

If eastern Ukraine joins Russia...while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO how will we be back here in 8 years?

Not only will there be no insurgents in such a future Ukrainian state...Russia would be completely unable to affect it militarily under the protection of the EU-NATO.

Putin might want such a future Ukraine...but just like the Baltic states he would be powerless to ever take it.
Bear8084
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a Lan they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
The Russian forces are not strong enough to take Central & Western Ukraine (areas populated by ethnic Ukrainians) right now at this very moment.

And will never be able to take those areas if they join EU-NATO.

So why do you keep repeating "it won't stop them" like some kind of mantra?

Russia has already been stopped militarily on the ground...and if the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO any further Russian attack would mean the destruction of the Russian state.




Because we will be right back here in 8-10 years, just like in 2014. Putin and Russia have shown this over and over again.
Lets play that out.

If eastern Ukraine joins Russia...while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO how will we be back here in 8 years?

Not only will there be no insurgents in such a future Ukrainian state...Russia would be completely unable to affect it militarily under the protection of the EU-NATO.

Putin might want such a future Ukraine...but just like the Baltic states he would be powerless to ever take it.


NATO was most likely never going to happen, and if it did, it would be a long wait. Security assurances would still be needed in the wait-time.

EU is mostly an economic union and cannot promise joint military protection like NATO can. Ukraine is well on it's way to joining the EU now, but it doesn't mean EU armies are coming or would want to come. Trade and technology will get a boost though.

If all Putin wanted was the east, he would've just kept chipping away at Minsk II or would've just kept the war to that part. But he didn't and hasn't and has stated so.
Redbrickbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

Redbrickbear said:

Bear8084 said:

https://theconversation.com/the-us-never-considered-ukraine-a-vital-interest-until-putins-ambitions-changed-that-181416

"Ukraine has now become transformed into a buffer between the democratic West and what I believe to be Putin's brand of imperialist fascism. The West's survival both physical survival and as democratic nations thus objectively depends, and is subjectively perceived as depending, on Ukraine's survival and ability to prevail." -Alexander Motyl

I guess seeing kids bombed in their beds and hands tied behind bodies makes you change your tune since 2014.
I think it shows an New Jersey based liberal academic is as capable of going along with group think as anyone else in his cultural bubble.

It's insanity to think the USA-EU (330+ million & 450+ million respectively) are under any existential threat from a rusting out Russian Federation of 140 million people that is in a demographic death spiral.

Trying to tie the Putinist Oligarchy in control of Russia to "fascism" is an attempt to resurrect the corpse of World War II and convince average Americans and average Europeans that some grand war for civilization is on the line in eastern Ukraine. And that we must risk everything...even nuclear war to stop it.

The case for dividing up Ukraine between a free democratic future EU state and a new territory addition to the Russian Federation remains relevant...its a decent compromise...and probably the only one that would create long term peace.







It shows he knows what's at stake and sees what's happening. A genocidal European land war started by Putin is not good for anyone in the Western world. That's not group think, that's the reality that is setting in.

Putin won't stop at "partitions". This is a war to wipe Ukraine off the map. That much he has made clear. And he won't stop there.
If it is a war to "wipe Ukraine off the map" then it sounds like again a good reason to divide the country down the ethnic line between the Ukrainian/Russian peoples.

Let the east join Russia and the let the rest of Ukraine become a member of the EU and NATO. A Ukraine that is under the protection of the alliance would be able to retain its independence long term.

Heck Russia is so weak it can't even manage to conquer it right now...without it being in the alliance system.

Certainly a Ukrainian State that tries and keep the east (populated by ethnic Russians and now under Russian military occupation) is a fools errand.





He won't stop until it is all his. Partitions and appeasement will not work in the long run. February 24th showed that.
Russians forces are not even strong enough to take all the Ukraine right now.

It's down right laughable to think that a future Ukraine cut free of its poor eastern seditious pro-Russian oblasts...and inside of the EU-NATO would ever be vulnerable Putin whatever is fantasies are.

Ukraine must get free of its eastern provinces if it is to join the EU-NATO....and it must join the EU-NATO if it is to have a free, prosperous, and secure future.


The seditious republics were fanned and propped up by Russia.

Right, Russia's military right now is plodding. Dangerous and doing massive damage, but plodding and poorly led. But 8-10 years from now when they learned their lessons but got a sweet peace deal anyways? They will return to finish it. Or at least try to. So that I agree with, security promises will be had in the end. Also a degradation of Russia's military enough to where Putin or any other predecessor will think twice before launching a shortsighted invasion again.
And Russia will not stop doing that for the long term foreseeable future.

Nor can their military be pushed out of the oblasts they have occupied (with the help of locals)

So again why not cut lose of these rebellious oblasts and focus on the parts of Ukraine that actually want to be apart of the nation...and who want to be apart of the EU?

Eventually you have accept facts on the ground.



Because that is a mostly Russian costruct to get a Lan they believe is theirs. Cutting off fake republics won't stop them.

And again, tunes have changed once everyone saw what Russia was really doing:

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/834975.html.
The Russian forces are not strong enough to take Central & Western Ukraine (areas populated by ethnic Ukrainians) right now at this very moment.

And will never be able to take those areas if they join EU-NATO.

So why do you keep repeating "it won't stop them" like some kind of mantra?

Russia has already been stopped militarily on the ground...and if the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO any further Russian attack would mean the destruction of the Russian state.




Because we will be right back here in 8-10 years, just like in 2014. Putin and Russia have shown this over and over again.
Lets play that out.

If eastern Ukraine joins Russia...while the rest of Ukraine joins the EU-NATO how will we be back here in 8 years?

Not only will there be no insurgents in such a future Ukrainian state...Russia would be completely unable to affect it militarily under the protection of the EU-NATO.

Putin might want such a future Ukraine...but just like the Baltic states he would be powerless to ever take it.


NATO was most likely never going to happen, and if it did, it would be a long wait. Security assurances would still be needed in the wait-time.

EU is mostly an economic union and cannot promise joint military protection like NATO can. Ukraine is well on it's way to joining the EU now, but it doesn't mean EU armies are coming or would want to come. Trade and technology will get a boost though.

If all Putin wanted was the east, he would've just kept chipping away at Minsk II or would've just kept the war to that part. But he didn't and hasn't and has stated so.
I agree with a lot of what you said.

But then I don't know where that leaves Ukraine long term.

Ukraine has to commit to the EU-NATO bloc or to Russia for its long term security.

If NATO is never going to let them in then they need to tell Ukraine.



Proud 1992 Alum
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It is the Ukrainians' call whether they give up land in a negotiation.

It is in the U.S. national interest to diminish Russia diplomatically and militarily. Russia has been our adversary for about 75 years. It seems like this war is diminishing Russia at relatively small expense to the U.S. Certainly compared to Iraq and Afghanistan.

After the Crimean invasion of 2014, public opinion in Ukraine among ethnic Russians changed to be more in favor of a Ukrainian identity. I am sure it has changed further since February.

Finally, the U.S. encouraged Ukraine to transfer the Soviet nukes to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. We made guarantees to Ukraine at that time. We should keep our promises.
jupiter
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Quote:

n the 2020-2021 season, Ukraine was the world's fourth-largest grain exporter. Exports in May were more than 60 percent lower than a year ago, even as global hunger hit a new high. Some 22 million tons of grain in Ukraine could rot if not exported soon.

The risks of such an operation are not so formidable. While Russia has considerable ability to find and target shipping in the Black Sea, the window of vulnerability is relatively short. Transit along the western edge of the Sea to the Turkish Straits is only 388 miles, and transit remains in or near territorial waters of Ukraine and NATO allies. Russia's ability directly to interdict this shipping may be limited.

If Russian intercepting vessels were to attempt to board or approach merchant ships at close range, they could be within range of Ukrainian shore batteries and aircraft. If instead Russian forces tried to attack from a distance with shore- or warship-launched munitions, they could have limited means of carrying out intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance of targets. Thus, they may launch weapons indiscriminately. This could result in accidental attacks on Romanian or Bulgarian ships, including in their own territorial waters, and a large-scale expenditure of guided munitions for uncertain effect.
Thus, while Russia might be able to find or engage ships, its ability to sustain a blockade is not certain. This is particularly true if merchant ships receive warship escort. Crucially, any modern navy with reasonably capable air defense ships could protect shipping along the western edge of the Black Sea from a range of Russian air and missile threats. And any navy with patrol boats or small combatants could perform simple escort functions, offering some level of protection and maritime awareness.
Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND


BERFAN
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We could just get all these idiots on jet skis shipped over there and they could find them.
jupiter
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jupiter
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jupiter
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whiterock
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It's a pretty simple problem, really. SRBMs would put the Russian fleet entire at risk anywhere in the Black Sea.

of course, for that reason, Russia would get pretty cranky about Ukraine having SRBMs, incentivizing them to take all of Ukraine to eliminate the threat (or providing justification for such). But escalation isn't much of a threat, given that Russia wants all of Ukraine anyway, and it's not like Romania and Turkey don't have such capabilities, so Russia really can't claim a that Ukraine having them as well is a strategic game changer.

We may be moving incrementally in that direction. We just announced a sale of NASAMs to Ukraine yesterday. Different animal, but clearly a step toward ever more capable systems.

if you read below the headlines, we are seeing depletion of Ukrainian stocks of legacy Russian equipment, weapons, and ammunition, which is being replaced with NATO issue stuff. We are even seeing M-4 rifles starting to be issued to Ukrainian troops. That is an important logistical step if one is to continue long-term support to Ukraine. Nato has enormous stores of ammo, legacy weapons systems, etc.... Looks like we're gonna let Ukraine start tapping it. That will greatly facilitate smooth supply lines. But one has to first convert the end user over to Nato equipment.
jupiter
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