J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

And what is qualified? You have to be an attorney now? Ivy League attorney, at that? If he wins, the guy deserves a shot. That is the elitist crap that has us in this mess. Maybe a non-attorney, non-lifetime politician will be more interested in results, not lobby.

Quote:

---

PHOENIX Former president Barack Obama used a rally here on Wednesday night to deliver perhaps his bluntest warning yet about the stakes of next week's midterm elections for America's system of self-government.

If the Republican candidates here are successful, Obama argued, "Democracy as we know it may not survive in Arizona."

"That's not an exaggeration," he added. "That is a fact."

---

So much for his little speech the other day about not spreading political "dissention" that is causing the current violence.

Are these folks born without any self reflection capabilities or an actual funtioning conscience.

Does he not realize how stupid and divisive this statement is. Is he only capable of aiming at the uninformed populace, who only vote on emotion over issues. Other side BAD no more democracy if they win.

muddybrazos said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

What makes you think Warnock is qualified? He is just a preacher that talks about how bad white people are rather than talking about God.

---

I said nothing of the other candidate as I know nothing about him. I was pointed to say this is not about parties. Is HW qualified? The good news is no-one has said he was. He just dumb as a box of hair.

FormerFlash said:

---

According to the Constitution, these are the qualifications:

No Person shall be a Senator who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty Years, and been nine Years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State for which he shall be chosen. U.S. Const. art.

So, yes. He is qualified to be a US Senator.

---

But he's not polished enough for JR so…..harrumph….would rather have a Dem to complain about than a Repub to be ashamed of.

Married A Horn said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

Do you think Fetterman is qualified to be a senator?

---

The only thing Fetterman is qualified for at this point is rehabber his CVA's.
And that is not a comment on his intellect or ability prior to his unfortunate health issue.

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

No, but I'd vote for him rather than Warnock

whiterock said:

---

J.R. said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

What makes you think Warnock is qualified? He is just a preacher that talks about how bad white people are rather than talking about God.

---

I said nothing of the other candidate as I know nothing about him. I was pointed to say this is not about parties. Is HW qualified? The good news is no-one has said he was. He just dumb as a box of hair.

---

Why wouldn't you have similar expectations of Warnock?
Why wouldn't you compare them to Walker?
And then vote for the better of the two.
Or for the part platform on which they stand?

Just amazing…..

Walker is more quailed for be senator than any Democrat, if for no other reason than his stated political positions.

---

They're both terrible candidates. It's a policy vote. Warnock should have never been elected. If the replacement for Isakson had been Doug Collins instead of Kelly Loeffler, we likely wouldn't be here in the first place. Of course who knows with 2020?

J.R. said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

What makes you think Warnock is qualified? He is just a preacher that talks about how bad white people are rather than talking about God.

---

I said nothing of the other candidate as I know nothing about him. I was pointed to say this is not about parties. Is HW qualified? The good news is no-one has said he was. He just dumb as a box of hair.

---

So J.R. is demanding the black candidate for Senator of Georgia pass a Literacy Test?

Yeah - more elitist hypocrisy on the left

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Quote:

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MSNBC presidential historian Michael Beschloss on Wednesday night warned that if Republican candidates win their races next week, American democracy and the free press could end, historians may no longer exist, and "our children" could all die at the hands of a "brutal authoritarian system."

---

Who is voting for these democratic fools.

They sound liked damned Hitler when he was blaming everything on Jews.

Quote:

---

Biden delivered his speech about democracy and political violence at the peak of a week of condemnations directed at Republican rhetoric for demonizing political opponents. Beschloss joined Hayes to analyze that speech, which he says precedes a midterm that will decide whether the president's political opponents get to institute a brutal, child-murdering authoritarian dictatorship.

"We could be six days away from losing our rule of law," the historian declared.

Beschloss compared Biden to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt as he continued to build to his crescendo, in which he argued that in just six days, America could see the beginning of the end of it all.

"A historian 50 years from now, if historians are allowed to write in this country and if there are still free publishing houses and a free press, which I'm not certain of," he said. "But if that is true, a historian will say, what was at stake tonight and this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed."

"We're on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away," he said, adding:

---

And dems acuse r's for demonizing their opponent?

The above is sheer lunacy.

---

I apologize to you. I didn't believe the post above. Beshloss is bizarre.
Here is a link:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/michael-beschloss-says-gop-victory-in-midterms-will-mean-our-children-will-be-arrested-and-conceivably-killed/

RMF5630 said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Quote:

---

MSNBC presidential historian Michael Beschloss on Wednesday night warned that if Republican candidates win their races next week, American democracy and the free press could end, historians may no longer exist, and "our children" could all die at the hands of a "brutal authoritarian system."

---

Who is voting for these democratic fools.

They sound liked damned Hitler when he was blaming everything on Jews.

Quote:

---

Biden delivered his speech about democracy and political violence at the peak of a week of condemnations directed at Republican rhetoric for demonizing political opponents. Beschloss joined Hayes to analyze that speech, which he says precedes a midterm that will decide whether the president's political opponents get to institute a brutal, child-murdering authoritarian dictatorship.

"We could be six days away from losing our rule of law," the historian declared.

Beschloss compared Biden to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt as he continued to build to his crescendo, in which he argued that in just six days, America could see the beginning of the end of it all.

"A historian 50 years from now, if historians are allowed to write in this country and if there are still free publishing houses and a free press, which I'm not certain of," he said. "But if that is true, a historian will say, what was at stake tonight and this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed."

"We're on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away," he said, adding:

---

And dems acuse r's for demonizing their opponent?

The above is sheer lunacy.

---

Last I checked the only people censoring and banning people from communicating were Dems.

---

hear, hear!

Oldbear83 said:

---

J.R. said:

---

muddybrazos said:

---

J.R. said:

---

Does anyone think that Hershel Walker is remotely qualified to be a Senator? Not a question relative to parties. Just curious.

---

What makes you think Warnock is qualified? He is just a preacher that talks about how bad white people are rather than talking about God.

---

I said nothing of the other candidate as I know nothing about him. I was pointed to say this is not about parties. Is HW qualified? The good news is no-one has said he was. He just dumb as a box of hair.

---

So J.R. is demanding the black candidate for Senator of Georgia pass a Literacy Test?

---

how long before Democrats call Musk's $8/month blue check fee a poll tax?

Update: republican ballots are out numbering the Dems in mail ins and the in person early voting in Miami Dade county FL

Texas turnout data & analysis:

-----------------------

2022 General Election - Early Voting Report

Good afternoon. This reports information on everyone who voted by mail or in person in Texas through the 10th day of early voting (i.e., through yesterday).

4,227,631 people have voted. That is 23.9% of all registered voters. Typically, ten days of early voting accounts for 80.4% of all votes cast during early voting. The last two days of early voting account for the remainder, with the Thursday being 7.8% and Friday being 11.8%.

Yesterday saw 437,560 people cast a vote. For those keeping track at home, the updated totals by day are:

Monday: 578,716
Tuesday: 530,745
Wednesday: 462,660
Thursday: 463,686
Friday: 449,419
Saturday: 328,460
Sunday: 153,622
Monday: 426,309
Tuesday: 396,454
Wednesday: 437,560


Early Voters by Previous Election History

Voters with previous Republican Primary history now have a 527,266 vote advantage over those with previous Democratic Primary history. That advantage has grown every day of early voting except for Sunday.

Day 1: 84,686 advantage for Republicans
Day 2: 168,337
Day 3: 242,982
Day 4: 314,172
Day 5: 382,669
Day 6: 391,931
Day 7: 385,162
Day 8: 440,895
Day 9: 491,736
Day 10: 527,266

When we review all early voters by their previous election history, the state's early voters break out into the following categories:

Republican Primary voters - 43%
Democratic Primary voters - 31%
Voters with no primary election history - 27%

Tracked each day, the breakdowns look like this:



As a reminder, in 2018, the early voting breakdown ended up being 34% Republican Primary voters / 20% Democratic Primary voters / 46% with no previous primary election history. And in 2014, it was: 40% Republican Primary voters / 28% Democratic Primary voters / 33% with no previous primary election history.

This year looks like it has more in common with 2014 than it does 2018, but again, that could all change between now and Election Night.


2022 vs. 2018 - Turnout

As a reminder, in 2018, the Texas Secretary of State only tracked daily early voting information for the 30 largest counties in the state. To get an idea as to where we are this year, I pulled the data for the same 30 counties that were being reported daily in 2018.

Through ten days in 2018, these counties saw 3,973,931 votes cast.
Through yesterday, the 30 largest counties saw 3,352,763 votes cast.
This is a difference of 621,168 votes.



In 2018, for the entirety of early voting, 4,884,734 people voted in the largest counties (39.9% of all registered voters. I might have mistakenly said 38.5% in a previous email. My apologies for that.)

To reach the same total number of votes, 1.5 million people would need to vote in these counties today and tomorrow. On average, 350,000 people have voted each weekday of early voting.

However, that's only a portion of the picture. The number of registered voters in these counties has grown from 12,255,607 to 13,868,899 over the last four years. To get to the 2018 rate of 39.9%, 2,174,983 people would need to vote today and tomorrow in these counties.

That's a long way of saying that turnout is down.


Projections

Over the summer, I projected turnout would be above 2018 but below 2020. Using that formula, I estimated 10.2 million people would vote (57.7%).

Earlier, I discussed ten days of early voting typically accounts for 80.4% of votes cast. If that's the case this year, 5.26 million votes would be cast during early voting.

In 2018, early/mail vote accounted for 74% of all votes cast (the other 26% obviously came from people who voted on Election Day). Once again, if that trend remains the same, total turnout for this election would be just over seven million votes cast, or 40.0% of all registered voters.

Having said all of this, I suspect that Election Day voters will make up more than the 26% it did in 2018. I have no scientific proof to back this up. Just a hunch.

And as a disclaimer, I reserve the right to adjust my numbers after seeing what turnout is like today and tomorrow. I also reserve the right to be completely wrong about all of these projections. Wouldn't be a first.


Which Party's Voters are More Energized?

Currently, 49% of registered voters with previous Republican Primary history have voted while only 45% of registered voters with previous Democratic Primary history have voted. Based on just this data point, I give Republicans a slight edge in the battle of enthusiasm.

While there is only a 4% difference in participation rates between the two groups, there are approximately 840,000 more registered voters with Republican Primary history than those who have Democratic Primary history, This helps to explain why the margin is so much larger in terms of raw votes.

While Republican Primary voters as a whole have the advantage, it is worth noting that of voters who have voted in three of the last four or four of the last four Democratic Primaries, 68.0% have already voted early. Their counterparts, people who have voted in three of the last four or four of the last four Republican Primaries, have only turned out at a rate of 66.4%. I have a theory that some of the 3Rs and 4Rs (as they are called) are waiting to vote on Election Day.


Urban vs. Rural

Turnout in "The Big Five Counties" (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, and Tarrant) is averaging 24.1%. In the next 20 counties, the turnout average is 24.8%. Turnout in the remaining counties is averaging 22.4%.

Early voting is typically more popular in urban and suburban counties more so than it is in rural counties. For example in larger counties in 2018, 75% of votes were cast during early voting. However, in rural Texas, only 62% were cast during early voting. The fact that turnout in rural Texas is only two points off the other groups could either mean that people in rural Texas are opting for voting early as opposed to voting on Election Day, or it could mean that we might see higher turnout rates overall in rural Texas.

Of the 4,227,631 votes cast, 40.9% came from "The Big Five Counties." The next 20 counties account for 25.6% and the remaining counties account for the remaining 33.5%.

As I have mentioned before, rural Texas delivered victories for statewide Republican candidates in 2018 and 2020. Rural Texas is crucial for Republican candidates. However, some urban and suburban counties might provide some much-needed assistance.

In several of the larger counties, tighter races could prevent Democrats from gaining too much of an advantage. For example, in 2018 Beto O'Rourke beat Ted Cruz by 201,298 votes in Harris County (58.0% vs. 41.3%). Everything I have seen indicates that results in Harris County might be closer than they have been in 2018 and 2020. The tighter the margin in counties like Harris, Tarrant, Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, etc., the harder it is to for Democrats to bank enough votes to survive the heavily Republican rural vote.


Other Demographic Statistics

Here are the updated participation rates by gender and age. For example, 44% of registered voters aged 70+ have voted early while only 9% of voters aged 18-29 have voted early.



Voters aged 18-29 currently make up 8% of all votes cast. In 2018, they made up 13%.
Voters aged 70 and older currently make up 26% of all votes cast. In 2018, they made up 17%.


Every Political Consultant Becomes a Meteorologist

I had to take my migraine medication this afternoon. That usually means there's a front coming in the next 24-48 hours. Sure enough, I checked my weather app and there is rain in the forecast for tomorrow. Campaigns watch the weather because it impacts turnout (as it likely impacted turnout on the first day of early voting).

While we are still a few days out from Election Day, it appears there is also the possibility of rain for portions of the state on Tuesday.

Just something else to watch between now and Tuesday.


The Reports

For the full statewide report, please click here.
For the breakdown by county, please click here.


Last Notes

Hopefully, tomorrow, I will try to answer some questions that have come in via email and Twitter. Enjoy the report.

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Quote:

---

MSNBC presidential historian Michael Beschloss on Wednesday night warned that if Republican candidates win their races next week, American democracy and the free press could end, historians may no longer exist, and "our children" could all die at the hands of a "brutal authoritarian system."

---

Who is voting for these democratic fools.

They sound liked damned Hitler when he was blaming everything on Jews.

Quote:

---

Biden delivered his speech about democracy and political violence at the peak of a week of condemnations directed at Republican rhetoric for demonizing political opponents. Beschloss joined Hayes to analyze that speech, which he says precedes a midterm that will decide whether the president's political opponents get to institute a brutal, child-murdering authoritarian dictatorship.

"We could be six days away from losing our rule of law," the historian declared.

Beschloss compared Biden to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt as he continued to build to his crescendo, in which he argued that in just six days, America could see the beginning of the end of it all.

"A historian 50 years from now, if historians are allowed to write in this country and if there are still free publishing houses and a free press, which I'm not certain of," he said. "But if that is true, a historian will say, what was at stake tonight and this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed."

"We're on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away," he said, adding:

---

And dems acuse r's for demonizing their opponent?

The above is sheer lunacy.

---

That is absolute insane drivel. Who are these people?

the "3Rs and 4Rs" terminology (or 3D/4D) refers to how many consecutive primaries one has voted in the past. 1R = you voted in the last primary
2R = you voted in the last two primaries
3R = you voted in the last three primaries
4R = you voted in the last four primaries
They don't rank beyond that because if you've voted in the last 4 primaries, it's like 98% chance you NEVER miss a primary.
You can also fairly impute that as the number rises from 1-4, you will be talking about ever more conservative (or liberal) votes.

This is used by the consultants (like the guy who composed above email) to prioritize campaigning plans & spends. The messaging to 4Rs (hard core Republican) is not the same as the messaging to the 1Rs (soft/moderate Republican). The 4R number is also a lot smaller demographic than the 1R number, so it's a little less expensive to talk to 4Rs than 1Rs. Last time I saw "R-data" was for a TX Congressional race. 4Rs were 12k voters. 1Rs were 28k voters.

I tend to agree that part of the reduced turnout is that a somewhat larger percentage of the GOP base is waiting for election day. Election integrity is a high concern amount 3-4R voters. There is an intuitive sense that voting in person is safer, truer....less vulnerable to having one's vote lost to fraud. I do vote early (and have) but will NEVER put my vote in the mail. So long as Postal Unions endorse Democrat candidates, it's just insane to do that. Way too easy for entire batches of votes from R-heavy precincts to disappear into thin air. So I do think we will end up a bit above current trend lines.

ATL Bear said:

---

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Quote:

---

MSNBC presidential historian Michael Beschloss on Wednesday night warned that if Republican candidates win their races next week, American democracy and the free press could end, historians may no longer exist, and "our children" could all die at the hands of a "brutal authoritarian system."

---

Who is voting for these democratic fools.

They sound liked damned Hitler when he was blaming everything on Jews.

Quote:

---

Biden delivered his speech about democracy and political violence at the peak of a week of condemnations directed at Republican rhetoric for demonizing political opponents. Beschloss joined Hayes to analyze that speech, which he says precedes a midterm that will decide whether the president's political opponents get to institute a brutal, child-murdering authoritarian dictatorship.

"We could be six days away from losing our rule of law," the historian declared.

Beschloss compared Biden to Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt as he continued to build to his crescendo, in which he argued that in just six days, America could see the beginning of the end of it all.

"A historian 50 years from now, if historians are allowed to write in this country and if there are still free publishing houses and a free press, which I'm not certain of," he said. "But if that is true, a historian will say, what was at stake tonight and this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed."

"We're on the edge of a brutal authoritarian system, and it could be a week away," he said, adding:

---

And dems acuse r's for demonizing their opponent?

The above is sheer lunacy.

---

That is absolute insane drivel. Who are these people?

---

Democrats.

New poll shows Walker up 7-pts, above 50% threshold.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/03/herschel-walker-leads-democrat-raphael-warnock-now-over-50-threshold/

GOP wave coming in


"....Meanwhile, as Democrats have pointed out, you see many more poll numbers from partisan Republican pollsters than partisan Democratic pollsters. But there's a reason for that. As Republican pollster Bill McInturff argued, partisan pollsters and campaign clients don't release unfavorable numbers. That's an indication that Democrats have no good news to share...."

"....Caught on a political limb are Democrats who followed expert advice and endorsed things like school shutdowns and defunding the police -- policies New York Magazine writer Jonathan Chait called the "indefensible and self-discrediting positions" of "the most unreasonable people on the Left" and Josh Barro called "dumbf--- things The Groups signed up for in June 2020, because the people who staff The Groups are the most out of touch people on the planet."....."

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/it_looks_like_the_republican_wave_is_coming_in

whiterock said:

---

GOP wave coming in


"....Meanwhile, as Democrats have pointed out, you see many more poll numbers from partisan Republican pollsters than partisan Democratic pollsters. But there's a reason for that. As Republican pollster Bill McInturff argued, partisan pollsters and campaign clients don't release unfavorable numbers. That's an indication that Democrats have no good news to share...."

"....Caught on a political limb are Democrats who followed expert advice and endorsed things like school shutdowns and defunding the police -- policies New York Magazine writer Jonathan Chait called the "indefensible and self-discrediting positions" of "the most unreasonable people on the Left" and Josh Barro called "dumbf--- things The Groups signed up for in June 2020, because the people who staff The Groups are the most out of touch people on the planet."....."

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_michael_barone/it_looks_like_the_republican_wave_is_coming_in

---

Dems haven't had their shot... There will be water main breaks, evacuations, mysterious boxes and the like showing up...

Although, I am impressed as GOP usually is nig on election day but not mail ins.

Jack Bauer said:

---

Katie Hobbs called out by <checks notes> Don Lemon.

How the hell is this woman a serious candidate?

---

Wow, just wow.

Why is this woman even a candidate. She makes Biden look engaged.

Are Dems having a contest to see who can be the cringiest candidate?

My God - what the hell is this?

WHAT ON EARTH is this Fetterman ad... pic.twitter.com/xNdMP8gm0P

— Kyle Martinsen (@KyleMartinsen_) November 4, 2022

Michiganders: We’re worried about crime, inflation, and gas prices

Gov Gretchen Whitmer: pic.twitter.com/trqr7D8U7N

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) November 4, 2022

Beto does a cringe dance, and women should be grateful for it... or something? pic.twitter.com/efZIfVAGRQ

— Catch Up (@CatchUpNetwork) November 3, 2022

Forest Bueller_bf said:

---

Jack Bauer said:

---

Katie Hobbs called out by <checks notes> Don Lemon.

How the hell is this woman a serious candidate?

---

Wow, just wow.

Why is this woman even a candidate. She makes Biden look engaged.

---

Check this out. I think we know why she won't debate. She is a terrible public speaker..

“What have you learned...from the Latino community?”

Arizona Democrat governor nominee Katie Hobbs: “That’s a great question … practicing my español un poquito.”

“So there’s not one specific lesson you could share…other than español?

Hobbs: “Uh...”pic.twitter.com/VPvQZQL4ak

— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) October 9, 2022

2016 Election Denialism is different than 2020 Election Denialism or something..

I must be doing something right when conservative accounts start trolling with disinformation memes.

Appreciate y’all for at least using a nice picture of me lol pic.twitter.com/tlSaOQZdhd

— Rep. Anna V. Eskamani 🔨 (@AnnaForFlorida) November 4, 2022