U.S Senate races

47,897 Views | 1187 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Osodecentx
BearTruth13
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Doc Holliday said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.





I prefer Lake over Desantis



Why ?
I like Desantis, but I don't see him going scorched earth on the establishment like Lake would.


The lifelong Dem that supported Kerry and Obama and has no professional experience outside of a news desk?
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2024.
You're going about it all wrong, you know.

1. Like it or not, Trump has more Republican support - by far - than anyone else. Attacking Trump is not going to win over Republicans to your position.

2. Trump has an incredible number of flaws, yet no one else has so effectively identified and attacked the Democrats' campaign of dismantling our Republic since 1993. The only way to become more popular with Republicans is to give Trump praise for what he got right, then identify the next step in bringing the Federal government back to what the Founders set up.

3. There is undeniably an Establishment element to the GOP, just as there is in the Democrats ranks. Protecting mandarins who just want to get rich and personally influential while ignoring their duties is not only morally wrong, but only helps the Democrats, who - despite their corruption - are more unified and focused in their plans.




Old bear,

I agree with you about base support. Where you seem to underestimate is in General election. Trump is poison at a General election level. Women, independents, moderate GOP, and ALL Dems are dead set against him for his flaws and behavior. There are not enough GOP Trump voters to offset those against him.

I am not sure in a Primary Trump could beat a DeSantis. Trumps supporters are vocal and serve a purpose. Similar to the 20 bike people that make sure bike lanes are all over even though 95% of the people never use them. Auto traffic will grow by 40% over next 20 years, yet those 20 people have stopped us building lanes for transit no one rides.... Those are the MAGA supporters, vocal and get their way although they do not represent the 80%....
4th and Inches
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RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2024.
You're going about it all wrong, you know.

1. Like it or not, Trump has more Republican support - by far - than anyone else. Attacking Trump is not going to win over Republicans to your position.

2. Trump has an incredible number of flaws, yet no one else has so effectively identified and attacked the Democrats' campaign of dismantling our Republic since 1993. The only way to become more popular with Republicans is to give Trump praise for what he got right, then identify the next step in bringing the Federal government back to what the Founders set up.

3. There is undeniably an Establishment element to the GOP, just as there is in the Democrats ranks. Protecting mandarins who just want to get rich and personally influential while ignoring their duties is not only morally wrong, but only helps the Democrats, who - despite their corruption - are more unified and focused in their plans.




Old bear,

I agree with you about base support. Where you seem to underestimate is in General election. Trump is poison at a General election level. Women, independents, moderate GOP, and ALL Dems are dead set against him for his flaws and behavior. There are not enough GOP Trump voters to offset those against him.

I am not sure in a Primary Trump could beat a DeSantis. Trumps supporters are vocal and serve a purpose. Similar to the 20 bike people that make sure bike lanes are all over even though 95% of the people never use them. Auto traffic will grow by 40% over next 20 years, yet those 20 people have stopped us building lanes for transit no one rides.... Those are the MAGA supporters, vocal and get their way although they do not represent the 80%....
his base is at least 55% of the "GOP". Neither side wins without support of the other.. you way underestimate MAGA
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
4th and Inches
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No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
whiterock
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4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL
Exactly. Timing was perfect (from Trump's point of view). DeSantis will not respond as the distraction will not benefit his campaign or his victory. Time for wrestling pigs is after he declares, which he just spent an entire campaign for Gov trying to insist he has no interest in doing. He will try to brush this off if/when asked.

sombear
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4th and Inches said:

No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.

Plenty of polls have Biden leading Trump. And given Biden's low approvals, that is scary.
FLBear5630
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4th and Inches said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2024.
You're going about it all wrong, you know.

1. Like it or not, Trump has more Republican support - by far - than anyone else. Attacking Trump is not going to win over Republicans to your position.

2. Trump has an incredible number of flaws, yet no one else has so effectively identified and attacked the Democrats' campaign of dismantling our Republic since 1993. The only way to become more popular with Republicans is to give Trump praise for what he got right, then identify the next step in bringing the Federal government back to what the Founders set up.

3. There is undeniably an Establishment element to the GOP, just as there is in the Democrats ranks. Protecting mandarins who just want to get rich and personally influential while ignoring their duties is not only morally wrong, but only helps the Democrats, who - despite their corruption - are more unified and focused in their plans.




Old bear,

I agree with you about base support. Where you seem to underestimate is in General election. Trump is poison at a General election level. Women, independents, moderate GOP, and ALL Dems are dead set against him for his flaws and behavior. There are not enough GOP Trump voters to offset those against him.

I am not sure in a Primary Trump could beat a DeSantis. Trumps supporters are vocal and serve a purpose. Similar to the 20 bike people that make sure bike lanes are all over even though 95% of the people never use them. Auto traffic will grow by 40% over next 20 years, yet those 20 people have stopped us building lanes for transit no one rides.... Those are the MAGA supporters, vocal and get their way although they do not represent the 80%....
his base is at least 55% of the "GOP". Neither side wins without support of the other.. you way underestimate MAGA
You don't need 51% to win the Nomination. When push comes to shove, Trump will not be the nominee. If he is, the GOP is going to be in for a rough time. You are spending too much time around MAGA-types. They are good at convincing themselves and trying to intimidate those that disagree that they are right and in the majority. Until Trump pulls his crap, which he will.

People forget how bad he was after election day. How brutal his surrogates were - Rudi? Powell? I do not believe they did anything illegal, but it was a clown show. Totally destroyed his credibility with alot of the voters. He will continue to intimidate, but I believe GOP will do everything they can to NOT have Trump as the nominee. Trump's behavior brought on the January 6th Commission crap. Nobody wants that in the White House again.

By the way, my Chesapeake Bay Retriever would win against Biden. Not a tough bar to cross. DeSantis, Haley, even Pompeo would beat Biden and his cast of characters. This is THE WORST Presidential performance in history!
4th and Inches
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sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.

Plenty of polls have Biden leading Trump. And given Biden's low approvals, that is scary.
no serious Poll has shown Biden leading Trump for 2024.

Some of those same pollsters were still using registered voters at two weeks to election. Those polls are weak attempt to show that Biden's approval is better than it really is..

In better news, Philly is reporting a 69% drop in mail in votes(collected only 31% of the 2020 mail in number)
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Oldbear83
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RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
muddybrazos
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RMF5630 said:

sombear said:

Adriacus Peratuun said:

Attacking unpopular and generally unlikable Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christy, etc.

does not equal

Attacking popular and generally likable Ron Desantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, etc.

What was cute and empowering to the outsiders last time will simply be annoying and tedious this time. And the Middle of the Roaders will coalesce quickly around one opposing option. With each attack, Trump will weaken not improve his position. The Angry Mad Outsider routine has been played. Trump won't adapt. Not adapting will be his downfall [along with overplaying his hand on a variety of issues].


Well said. Nobody considers Desantis establishment and never will.
Trust me, there is nothing "establishment" about DeSantis, ask Disney and educators. DeSantis will fight for what he believes is right. He will not rollover for anyone, including Trump.
I like what i've seen from Desantis but he is perfect for the establishment. He's Jag, Harvard etc and checks all the establishment boxes. If he aligns with Pompeo, Jeb, Paul RYan & Nikki Haley I will never vote for him. If he stays with the America First message then I will vote for him.
Sam Lowry
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4th and Inches said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2025.
2025?
You may have noticed Trump doesn't quit easily.
FLBear5630
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Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.
4th and Inches
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Sam Lowry said:

4th and Inches said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2025.
2025?
You may have noticed Trump doesn't quit easily.
cute.. almost funny

The metric line was better
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Sam Lowry
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4th and Inches said:

Sam Lowry said:

4th and Inches said:

Canada2017 said:

RMF5630 said:

Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

There's plenty of time for political analysis just as there was plenty of time for Trump to hit Desantis, but no, the buffoon had to do it the weekend before the vote.
wont effect him at all.. he is roding his own wave in FL


But why would Trump attack a Republican on the weekend before an election?


He reacts, he doesn't think. He can't keep his mouth shut. There has been 90% of his problems!


Which is why the Republicans need to keep trump's ass off the National ticket in 2025.
2025?
You may have noticed Trump doesn't quit easily.
The metric line was better
It was...when I first heard it around age ten.
sombear
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Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
Sometimes we have to face reality. Trump ran against two of the worst Dem candidates in history and still barely got mid-40s, and that was before January 6 and al of his shenanigans since then. We can do much better.
Doc Holliday
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Married A Horn said:

Doc Holliday said:

Canada2017 said:

Doc Holliday said:

whiterock said:

I saw a poll yesterday that had Trump at 53% support, with DeSantis about half that. That's the lowest I've seen Trump, and frankly I was surprised that DeSantis wasn't a bit higher, suggesting that support leaking (very slowly...over months) away from Trump is not all going directly to DeSantis. But make no mistake, the 2024 GOP primary is underway. And whatever can be said about Trump, one of his best attributes as a politician is that he's never NOT campaigning. All good ones are like that. Trump is among the best. He took out Pence before Biden was even inaugurated. Tough business, politics.

Trump at 53% is still in a dominating position so long as the field has more than 2 other contenders. Will win almost every primary. All he has to do is keep jabbing to keep DeSantis at bay.

But I suspect that is not the biggest obstacle DeSantis will have = Kari Lake. I think she is better than DeSantis.

Now, she has to prove her chops on the policy side, to demonstrate that she is as good at governance as at campaigning. And that will take at least a full session of the AZ lege. So she will be late to the party. And she may not run. But she will steal some sunshine from DeSantis.





I prefer Lake over Desantis



Why ?
I like Desantis, but I don't see him going scorched earth on the establishment like Lake would.
Yup - whoever the democrats hate the most is a good rule of thumb on who to vote for.
Married A Horn
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RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.
Osodecentx
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Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
Harrison Bergeron
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Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
You should explain that to Hillary Clinton and other Democrats who continue to maintain the 2016 election was stolent.
Jack Bauer
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And here we go...

FLBear5630
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Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.
I guess they are using an extended definition of fraud. The way the Courts and election supervisors (even Conservative ones) use showed no more than the usual and not enough to swing an National election. Now, I do believe the "procedural violations", such as vote harvesting, drop boxes, vote acceptance and date extensions did make a difference. Problem is that the public and Trump threw that in one bucket, technically they were wrong and the Dems and media hung on those differences. That is my view. COVID allowed a lot of procedural abnormalities. That is what Barr was saying.

Great thing about elections, we will see. Works out for me, either way. DeSantis as my Gov is good with me.
sombear
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4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.

Plenty of polls have Biden leading Trump. And given Biden's low approvals, that is scary.
no serious Poll has shown Biden leading Trump for 2024.

Some of those same pollsters were still using registered voters at two weeks to election. Those polls are weak attempt to show that Biden's approval is better than it really is..

In better news, Philly is reporting a 69% drop in mail in votes(collected only 31% of the 2020 mail in number)
Emerson, Suffolk, Sienna, YouGov, Wall Street Journal, USA Today. Federalist/Susquehanna have all shown Trump behind head-to-head in the last month. These same polls have Biden approvals really low, so there is no clear pro-Biden bias. Internals show it about even. State polls show it really close with Trump doing better in MI and PA, but worse in WI, NH, and AZ. Bottom line, given Biden's awful approvals and performance, Trump should not be even close. Trump is a really bad candidate.
Osodecentx
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Harrison Bergeron said:

Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
You should explain that to Hillary Clinton and other Democrats who continue to maintain the 2016 election was stolent.


I did.
Married A Horn
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Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election


So naive
4th and Inches
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Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
correct, bit state and federal election law violations might have..
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
4th and Inches
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sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.

Plenty of polls have Biden leading Trump. And given Biden's low approvals, that is scary.
no serious Poll has shown Biden leading Trump for 2024.

Some of those same pollsters were still using registered voters at two weeks to election. Those polls are weak attempt to show that Biden's approval is better than it really is..

In better news, Philly is reporting a 69% drop in mail in votes(collected only 31% of the 2020 mail in number)
Emerson, Suffolk, Sienna, YouGov, Wall Street Journal, USA Today. Federalist/Susquehanna have all shown Trump behind head-to-head in the last month..
meh.. you realize almost every one of those pollsters is ridiculusly bad right?

Trump is a terrible canidate and I wont vote for him. Yall get worked up over the message.
“Mix a little foolishness with your serious plans. It is lovely to be silly at the right moment.”

–Horace


“Insomnia sharpens your math skills because you spend all night calculating how much sleep you’ll get if you’re able to ‘fall asleep right now.’ “
Osodecentx
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4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
correct, bit state and federal election law violations might have..


Or might not have

What election was stolen because of law violations?
Harrison Bergeron
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4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
correct, bit state and federal election law violations might have..
I think that is where a lot of reasonable people shake out. There is a gray area between literal fraud and illegal election procedure changes that potentially facilitated shenanigans not present or possible during elections under the purview of state election law.

They say the quite part out loud: https://time.com/5936036/secret-2020-election-campaign/
muddybrazos
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Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
correct, bit state and federal election law violations might have..


Or might not have

What election was stolen because of law violations?
the 2020 presidential election had the FBI violating the law but saying the Hunter Biden laptop was disinfo. Social media then banned the story from the NY Post. That is all that was needed to swing the election so there was your fraud.
sombear
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4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

sombear said:

4th and Inches said:

No Dem has polled well against Donald Trump for 2024.

So far, he has been polled against Biden, Harris, Clinton, Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Newsom.

Trump beat all of them.

Plenty of polls have Biden leading Trump. And given Biden's low approvals, that is scary.
no serious Poll has shown Biden leading Trump for 2024.

Some of those same pollsters were still using registered voters at two weeks to election. Those polls are weak attempt to show that Biden's approval is better than it really is..

In better news, Philly is reporting a 69% drop in mail in votes(collected only 31% of the 2020 mail in number)
Emerson, Suffolk, Sienna, YouGov, Wall Street Journal, USA Today. Federalist/Susquehanna have all shown Trump behind head-to-head in the last month..
meh.. you realize almost every one of those pollsters is ridiculusly bad right?

Trump is a terrible canidate and I wont vote for him. Yall get worked up over the message.
Most of these were far above average in the 2020 national polls, and again, they have Biden's approvals really low, so I interpret these polls as being in the ball park, especially when internals have it about tied.
FLBear5630
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Osodecentx said:

4th and Inches said:

Osodecentx said:

Married A Horn said:

RMF5630 said:

Oldbear83 said:

RMF: "Trump is poison at a General election level."

Only when the GOP refuses to unify, and prefers fracture to focus. Also, there are ways to handle the media rather than play by their rules. A big mistake in 2020 was playing by MSDNC rules.
2020 was a different animal. He was the sitting President. I agree 100% with your position on him going in to the 2020 election. We are 100% in agreement.

Where we seem to separate is after the election. His behavior was ridiculous and caused the GOP and Conservatism a lot of problems. I agree with Barr and his analysis that his legal team was a "clown show" and focused on the wrong issue. Personally, I believe it was because "fraud" was the only word Trump could understand versus States not following their procedural rules. "Fraud" played better on Twitter, which is all Trump understands. Once he tried to strongarm Pence, then did that rally and the Jan 6th stuff followed... Game Over.

If he runs, it will all come back on every channel, even Fox will run it. I don't see anyway he overcomes that with the other 240 million US citizens. Sure he 80 million will want him, but we will see such a turnout against. Even half the GOP can't stand him. Stay in social media world, run a PAC, be Kingmaker, Lobby, but hold office??? No way.


I dont remember the number, but I think polling shows a vast majority of republicans believe there was fraud - supported by 2000 Mules among other things. What you are saying about the procedural thing is correct - but that was so they could commit more fraud.

Election fraud is the ONLY issue to many people and focusing on it is a good idea. Any candidate that says there was no election fraud has a low chance of getting most conservative votes.


Fraud did not change the results in any federal election
correct, bit state and federal election law violations might have..


Or might not have

What election was stolen because of law violations?
I think they are talking about numerous States not following their own laws in 2020, for one Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/12/17/ken-starr-you-cannot-have-changes-in-election-laws-after-the-fact/

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/states-changed-rules-voting-amid-coronavirus-pandemic/story?id=72309089

https://thefederalist.com/2022/07/14/courts-squash-democrats-most-secure-election-lie-swing-states-didnt-follow-their-own-election-laws-in-2020/

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/constitution-2020-elections-amicus-brief/2020/12/23/id/1002928/

In all fairness, the other side to that point:

https://www.politifact.com/article/2021/oct/15/steve-scalises-flawed-argument-states-didnt-follow/

https://noqreport.com/2021/03/01/states-abandoning-voting-rule-changes-used-for-2020-election/


But you get the point. There was enough ambiguity for their to be questions and in the time between election and certification, not much can be resolved. That is where a lot of people are having issues, either right or wrong. I am not passing a value judgement, just explaining.


Oldbear83
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Oso: "Fraud did not change the results in any federal election"

Agree to strongly disagree.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Married A Horn
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Oldbear83 said:

Oso: "Fraud did not change the results in any federal election"

Agree to strongly disagree.


He is one of those guys that says:

'The government told me there was no fraud. Therefore there was no fraud.'
FLBear5630
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Married A Horn said:

Oldbear83 said:

Oso: "Fraud did not change the results in any federal election"

Agree to strongly disagree.


He is one of those guys that says:

'The government told me there was no fraud. Therefore there was no fraud.'
And he can say you are one of those tin foil hat conspiracy theory people.

ATL Bear
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4th and Inches said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

4th and Inches said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

seen just now in Twitter feed:



Trump forfeited that with his behavior after the 2020 election. His behavior, rally and ultimately Jan 6th cost him that right. The GOP would have rolled if not for that fiasco with his legal team, certification scheme and rallies after losing. His sore loser antics and childish tantrums cost the GOP.

He is a pariah in politics. He will motivate his base, but he will also motivate every liberal and left-leaning independent to vote against him. DeSantis gains nothing with Trump, those people will vote DeSantis over any Dem. This problem is the sensible moderate independents, DeSantis's performance during COVID, Ian and Flordia's growth will win them, not Trump.

Pariah is the wrong word choice. He has majority support of Republicans and at least 45% of the electorate would vote for him again. Polarizing captures it better. And that's viewing it in isolation. Democrats and alphabet media are going to treat any Republican the way they treat Trump.

Cold, hard reality RIGHT NOW, as of today, Trump has the largest coalition available to us. And it's growing. He's going to be hard to beat in the primary. And it's not clear that anyone else can inherit his coalition. Neither is it immediately apparent that building a different/better coalition Is any more viable than cobbling a few more percentage points to the one he commands.

Platitudes about unelectability are going to bounce off him like ping pong balls……
What do you call someone that will win the Primary and lose the General. For the General Election, Trump will generate levels of hate and concerted action to stop him that will make 2020 look like a picnic. He is unelectable. Turnout will make Biden's 81 million look like JV. He really needs to stay in PAC world.
Trump generated that hate because we were in a good place as a country- people will remember that and he would do better, win the popular vote, and beat any current Dem canidate for this reason alone if the election was tuesday. 2024 is far away.

He wont be the guy in 2024.
No, What they will remember is the Jan 6th stuff and his wanting Pence to not certify. They will remember him and Rudi ranting on the stage. That will bring out every leftist and independent-moderate against him. DeSantis is a much more electable choice. 4 more years of Trump will be more of the current polarizing crap. We can't survive that. .

Problem with that line of reasoning is, a majority think fraud affected the outcome of the election. And cancel culture….cultural institutions choosing sides…made it unfair. An even bigger number sees that. And Trump is the proper vehicle to exploit that sentiment. Flip side is, retreads are rare. So historical precedence is against him regardless of his quirks.

Like 4th said - it's a long time to 2024. At least a year. Political capital lives and dies in turns of phrases. But like it or not….Trump is going to be very hard to defeat.

And Kari Lake is going make life harder for Desantis.

We have a number of viable options on our side.


Personally, I think he is in his most effective role right now. PAC, surrogate, outside the system supporting. Just don't see him moving to that role, it is all about him
i think he would do that role if he realizes he can be a king maker and influence national policy while not being president and make money off doing it.

On the other hand, "its good to be the king"
"I exploit you, still you love me
I tell you, one and one makes three
Oh, I'm the cult of personality"
 
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