More:

Netherlands: 1.55 -> 1.45
Canada: 1.60 -> 1.25
Germany: 1.50 -> 1.40 (not bad?)
Japan: 1.45 -> 1.21
Poland: 1.44 -> 1.28
Taiwan: 1.18 -> 0.86

— Basil☀️ (@LinkofSunshine) December 5, 2023

This is catastrophic pic.twitter.com/2LYeaznPK6

— Cato (@ichthys30) December 18, 2023

Meanwhile the latest ESPN poll of the top 20 shows all but one are all members of the same conference.

1 Niger 6.7
2 Chad 6.1
3 DR Congo 6.1
4 Somalia 6.1
5 Central African Republic 5.8
6 Mali 5.8
7 Angola 5.1
8 Nigeria 5.1
9 Burundi 4.9
10 Benin 4.8
11 Burkina Faso 4.6
12 Tanzania 4.6
13 Gambia 4.5
14 Mozambique 4.5
15 Afghanistan 4.4
16 Uganda 4.4
17 Cameroon 4.3
18 Ivory Coast 4.3
19 Mauritania 4.3
20 Senegal 4.3

Realitybites said:

---

Meanwhile the latest ESPN poll of the top 20 shows all but one are all members of the same conference.

1 Niger 6.7
2 Chad 6.1
3 DR Congo 6.1
4 Somalia 6.1
5 Central African Republic 5.8
6 Mali 5.8
7 Angola 5.1
8 Nigeria 5.1
9 Burundi 4.9
10 Benin 4.8
11 Burkina Faso 4.6
12 Tanzania 4.6
13 Gambia 4.5
14 Mozambique 4.5
15 Afghanistan 4.4
16 Uganda 4.4
17 Cameroon 4.3
18 Ivory Coast 4.3
19 Mauritania 4.3
20 Senegal 4.3

---

And that conference is declining fast as well....

https://www.afd.fr/en/actualites/dramatic-drop-fertility-across-africa

[When compared with other continents, Africa's fertility rates of 4.5 children per woman in 2017 seem high. Indeed, it's the highest in the world. But that figure is low compared with Africa's birthrates of previous decades. It stood at an average of 6.6 children per woman in 1980.

And these rates has been falling across the continent.]

The TFR in the Manila metro area, the 6th largest metropolitan area in the world with more than 26 million inhabitants is now only 1.4 children per woman anymore.

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) December 15, 2023

TFR in India is quite low and declining. Some parts of Indian metros, such as Mumbai, Kolkata, etc., have TFRs even lower than the lowest low level. pic.twitter.com/4G2Eut8EtY

— Suddhasil Siddhanta (@SuddhasilSiddh1) December 21, 2023

Almost half, 46%, of adults who do not have children and do not want to have a child in the future pointed to their personal financial situation as a reason, per CNBC.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) December 29, 2023

Which countries have populations which are projected to double or nearly-double over the next 30 years?

Pretty much those countries which currently can barely take care of their existing populations. pic.twitter.com/9LQyixheee

— i/o (@eyeslasho) December 29, 2023

AFRICA:

TFR trends according to sources:

Niger MIS 2021: 🔽 to 6.2
Liberia MIS 2022: 🔽 to 3.8
Tanzania DHS 2022: 🔽 to 4.8
Benin 2021-2022 MICS: 🔽to 4.7
Comoros 2022 MICS: Stable at 4.3
Rwanda 2022 Census: 🔽 to 3.6

Overall, birth rates are declining rapidly across Africa. pic.twitter.com/GVUyDmqzfj

— Global Demographics (@nonebusinesshey) December 30, 2023

[In 2000 the world's fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the "replacement rate" of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling. The largest 15 countries by gdp all have a fertility rate below the replacement rate. That includes America and much of the rich world, but also China and India, neither of which is rich but which together account for more than a third of the global population.]

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2023/06/01/global-fertility-has-collapsed-with-profound-economic-consequences

Population collapse is the biggest threat to civilization. Here's what's happening in the world:

• South Korea's Record-Low Fertility Rate To Fall Further, Warns Government

• China’s fertility rate is estimated to have touched a record low of 1.09 last year. Births were below… pic.twitter.com/Om2i7fM6Gr

— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) January 2, 2024

Good overview on how many popular data webpages prdent outdated data on fertility, thus understating the recent collapse of birth rates. If one is interested in the trend of a particular country, best way is to check the official statistical agency of that country. https://t.co/FeHiNH2vPo

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) January 24, 2024

In retrospect, it's wild how aggressively South Korea tied fertility reduction to prosperity.

"The path to $1,000 GNP by 1981—raise only two children, sons or daughters."

Vasectomies and sterilizations were freely provided, earning you an exemption from military training. pic.twitter.com/DlVrIOm94J

— friendly gecko (@friendly_gecko) April 6, 2023

This doesn't help

Nearly 60% of parents said they were providing financial support to their adult kids ages 18 to 34, per PEW.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 5, 2024

New data today shows that the fertility rate in Turkey fell to just 1.51 births per woman in 2023.
Even a middle-income country that is (nominally) 99% Islamic is not escaping fertility collapse.
The fertility of humanity is likely now below replacement. Short🧵. https://t.co/44hSVuZ72k

— More Births (@MoreBirths) February 7, 2024

60% of 30- to 34-year-olds in 1993 having at least one child.

Today, that's plunged to 27%, per CBS.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 12, 2024

China's baby bust is happening faster than many expected, raising fears of a demographic collapse, per WSJ.

China will have just 525 million people by the end of the century. That's down from their previous forecast of 597 million and a precipitous drop from 1.4 billion now.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 14, 2024

The number of Americans aged 25–34 living at home has jumped over 87% in the past two decades, according to census data and Axios.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 17, 2024

Americans are paying on average $605 more each month for groceries compared with the same time two years ago and $1,019 more compared with three years ago, per NYP.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 23, 2024

Have four or more babies in Hungary and you'll pay no income tax for life pic.twitter.com/NWys1bOlQX

— Jeremy Wayne Tate (@JeremyTate41) February 25, 2024

NYT: Japan is running out of people and the economy is weak, but it’s peaceful and no one cares all that much because they don’t have race riots. pic.twitter.com/YGf2Af1QJ9

— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) March 1, 2024

[Pageau doesn't get into this, but it is clear to me that he is also talking about a broad culture in which people not only stop thinking of sex as being for procreation (though not exclusively), but also in which they no longer think that having children is normal.

South Korea and Japan are on the leading edge of this trend, but it's global. The BBC had a piece up recently exploring why South Korean women aren't having babies. It's not a matter of selfishness, necessarily. The story points out that for various reasons, South Korea is the most expensive country in the world to raise kids. So there is clearly a systemic element here. But there's also a cultural factor. Besides which, contemporary Europe, with its extensive welfare states, makes it financially easier to raise kids than in the past. People just don't want kids. A society that doesn't prize childbearing, and create the conditions that make bringing the next generation, is signing its suicide note. There's no way around it.] -Rod Dreher

6. Spain will lose 11% of its population by 2050. This implosion, and the rise of a large dependent elderly class without enough workers and taxpayers to support it, will make the other issues now occupying Spanish leaders pale by comparison. pic.twitter.com/IH9gNSmXeP

— Matthew Archer (@AporiaMatt) March 2, 2024

Why are birth rates falling?

Finland was once considered a front-runner in global natalism. They had a comprehensive welfare state, generous parental leave and subsidised childcare.

Finland was a parental paradise

Now?

Not so much... pic.twitter.com/AXkgeA97WU

— Alfie Johnson (@alfiemarkj) February 25, 2024

Fertility and Culture: A Deep Dive (Please Share!)

Those of us who have been thinking hard about demography understand that civilizational progress has been intertwined with growing population. We know that technological progress and even social justice depend on prosperity. We… pic.twitter.com/SKJIMfzNmv

— More Births (@MoreBirths) January 29, 2024

Jesus Christ we are all just giving up huh https://t.co/RIIom29Qr9

— Jim Trutsle #ReformedRacist 🛩️🇧🇷 (@trutsle) April 3, 2024

Redbrickbear said:

---

Have four or more babies in Hungary and you'll pay no income tax for life pic.twitter.com/NWys1bOlQX

— Jeremy Wayne Tate (@JeremyTate41) February 25, 2024

---

...and just like that, Hungarian women became the most popular on the planet.

The total fertility rate fell to 1.22, down from 1.76 ten years ago. Costa Rica's TFR was last above replacement in 2001, but has experienced an accelerated decline since 2018. pic.twitter.com/0JALtLFrT1

— Neolithic HVAC Technician (@AccurateCaption) April 6, 2024

The Tunisia MICS survey of 2023 gives a TFR of 1.60 kids per woman for the three years preceding the survey.

The TFR was just 1.0 for the Tunis metropolitan area, 1.3 in the rest of Northeastern Tunisia and 1.9-2.0 for the other regions of the country.

— Birth Gauge (@BirthGauge) February 27, 2024