OFFICIAL ELECTION THREAD, 11-8-22

41,996 Views | 1063 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by whiterock
sombear
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Jack Bauer said:

FWIW


That was from Noon today. Insiders are not optimistic now.
EatMoreSalmon
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sombear said:

Jack Bauer said:

FWIW


That was from Noon today. Insiders are not optimistic now.
Don't have to be an insider now not to be optimistic.
Redbrickbear
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Cobretti
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BearN
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*** Pennsylvania
Jack Bauer
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Honest question, has Beto had a job since 2018?
BearN
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Welcome to DC

Redbrickbear
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BearN
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Jack Bauer said:

Honest question, has Beto had a job since 2018?


Yes. The oldest one.
Jack Bauer
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So expecting a red tsunami and the Republicans are currently -1 in the Senate

Have to pick up 2 of 3 from - AZ, GA, NV
Fre3dombear
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Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months

Many places with no voter ID

Vote harvesting

Digital voting

Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out

I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.

BearN
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I don't think it is the messaging of the R candidates. The majority of this country is lost degenerates. They'll vote for corpses and vegetables as long as they hate America.
Jack Bauer
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Gonna get to bed, can't wait to wake up to another "4 AM data dump" in AZ, NV, GA

ATL Bear
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Jack Bauer said:

So expecting a red tsunami and the Republicans are currently -1 in the Senate

Have to pick up 2 of 3 from - AZ, GA, NV
The fat lady is about to take the stage. A GA runoff is going to be irrelevant.
BearN
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FLBear5630
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Fre3dombear said:

Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months

Many places with no voter ID

Vote harvesting

Digital voting

Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out

I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.




No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
FLBear5630
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BearN said:




Unreal...
LIB,MR BEARS
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RMF5630 said:

Fre3dombear said:

Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months

Many places with no voter ID

Vote harvesting

Digital voting

Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out

I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.




No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
doubtful
FLBear5630
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LIB,MR BEARS said:

RMF5630 said:

Fre3dombear said:

Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months

Many places with no voter ID

Vote harvesting

Digital voting

Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out

I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.




No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
doubtful


Time to stop with the cheating BS and look at what GOP is running on and who they are running. Fetterman should not have won, but GOP ran Dr Oz! Trump now threatening DeSantis to not run in 24 or he will put out unflattering information? That nutbsg Greene telling people don't dare challenge Trump? Come on. This is your GOP? Reagans GOP?
TenBears
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The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him. He would get my vote.
BealBear
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TenBears said:

The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him. He would get my vote.



Exactly, give me Ron all day over Trump.
MT_Bear
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RMF5630 said:

Fre3dombear said:

Biden Obama socialists have brought in 5m new illegals in 20 months

Many places with no voter ID

Vote harvesting

Digital voting

Anyone surprised the worst president since Obama and Carter while most people are going bankrupt didn't overwhelming vote to throw these idiots out

I'm surprised, as I've said for months, the Rs won the house.




No, the GOP hitched their wagon to Trump! That is the problem. He is a fluke 2016 winner against a horrible candidate (Clinton) that behaved like a spoiled child when he lost to Biden. Trump is poison in a General election. They need to.move away from Trump the person and back to Reagan policies. If Trump backs you or runs himself, Dem and moderate Independent will vote to keep him out. Time to get good candidates not crackpots like Green and these MAGAs! Maybe this will send a message!
Ding ding ding
Doc Holliday
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PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.

They'll get what they voted for.
Forest Bueller
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Doc Holliday said:

PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.

They'll get what they voted for.


The people that control his vote will get what they hoped for.
Forest Bueller
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The Republican is ahead in Nevada for the moment. Senate control could come down to a runoff between Walker and Warnock.
ron.reagan
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If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.
Whiskey Pete
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Ron DeSantis is the future
Forest Bueller
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ron.reagan said:

If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.


Trump needs to get the boot. His rabid followers need to face reality.
whiterock
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Jack Bauer said:

"Latinx are too dumb to know they should be voting for us"


She is correct. LatinX ignores that reality. The Tejanos in the TxGOP fairly uniformly supported Dewhurst rather than Ted Cruz in the 2012 Senate primary. If you scratched around on that....it was because he was Cuban, not Tejano.

What most whites see as a "Hispanic community" is in fact a loose collection of Americans of a variety of discrete hertiages - South American, Caribbean, Central American, Mexican, Tejano, home-grown - that doesn't always think/vote the same way.
Mothra
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ron.reagan said:

If Trump supporters don't jump ship soon the buffoon is going to end up running indy and handing Biden the presidency. Owning the libs was fun for awhile but losing is not.


Yup. Perhaps that's the silver lining to come out of this, though I fear his sycophants will continue to support him unconditionally, and in turn, lose us the next election.
Booray
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In the same way, the Democratic Party needed a wake-up call it did not get last night. The results increase the chance that Joe Biden will lead the ticket against Ron Desantis. If that happens you will get your red wave two years late.
whiterock
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Canada2017 said:

Forest Bueller said:

4th and Inches said:

OZ is about 40k back and gaining..

Might still be there


The Philadelphia machine will ward of any Oz momentum.

Walker and Warnock in a runoff. Not sure what is going on in AZ. I thought we were told Lake and others have all the momentum.


Outside of Florida and DeSantis…..the red wave was a bust .

The message is clear …..it's DeSantis for president in 2024.
That will be the Establishment take, and there's a lot to commend it. DeSantis was already the heir apparent BEFORE the vote totals came rolling in. But.......

There is a parallel here with 2012. The Romney campaign leaned heavily on the Tea Party NOT to try to recreate the magic of 2010 with energetic grassroots campaining, rallies, block walking, etc.... It's a different dynamic, they said. It's going to be counterproductive, they said. It'll turn off independents and fire up the Dem base, they said. Voters like the incumbent personally, they said. We can't treat him like y'all did Dems in 2010. Trust us, they said. We know what we're doing, they said. We got this, they said. And then....whomp, whomp, whomp.....

Who didn't show up yesterday? Independents and MAGA base.
Remember all the times I said that negative campaigning turns off independents?
Remember when I said the goal of a troubled incumbent is to get independents NOT to vote?
The goal is to make the election a referendum not on you, but your challenger....to make him/her look worse.
The Dems DID turn out their base.
Better than we did.
What could we have done a better job firing up OUR base?
(see below)

Q: Where did the GOP do best?
A: Where the hard-charging, MAGA-created Governor stood on the victory stage and said "Florida is where Woke comes to die." No punches pulled in FL. No worries about inflaming sensibilities there. It was a knock teeth in campaign. (which had a good record to run on ).

Trump made a huge mistake.
He respected the wishes of the HRCC and SRCC. He stayed on the sidelines.
Did not campaign with a single candidate.
Did not do anything to fire up the MAGA base by declaring for reelection.
Is it a surprise we saw a 2018 turnout more (when he was not on the ticket) rather than 2016/2020 when he was?
And how did Dems turn out their base? (by calling the GOP win "the end of democracy").
Meanwhile, ours stayed home....so as not to inflame theirs....or scare independents who stayed home anyway.

Independents did not come roaring out to save the economy or the schools.
Democrats came out to save their agenda.
A campaigning Trump would not have negatively impacted either of those two demographics.
He would have brought out the MAGA base.

Democrats called out their unpopular leaders to campaign with their embattled Senators and Governors, and they got their base out & got their problem candidates across the finish line. (you can forgive me if I harrumph about comments on "candidate quality." Dems got strong showings from deeply flawed (Barnes, Fetterman, Warnock) and nearly opaque (Hassan, Hobbs) candidates in tight races (each of which the GOP should have won).

The Tx data I posted leading up to the election was, in hindsight, instructive. The record turnout we needed to win did not happen.

The silver lining: DeSantis showed me something I've consistently pointed out he lacked - a viable coalition of his own. No, it's not exactly MAGA. It's a different coalition. Can it be a model to take nationwide? Maybe. We'll see.

Take home lesson yesterday is one we have to come to grips with: In a nearly evenly divided election, quit making election plans to woo independent voters with milquetoast campaigns. All that does is make your own base stay home. Until we have a nationwide result resembling Reagan in 1984, every election is a base election.
Pam Manhart
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Doc Holliday said:

PA just elected an incompetent vegetable.

They'll get what they voted for.
And then move here
Canada2017
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TenBears said:

The answer is staring the Republicans in the face with Desantis. I hope they are smart enough to ditch the orange blimp and go with him.



Going to require an incredibly stubborn / hopelessly limited type of individual to ignore the political realities revealed last night .

DeSantis is easily the best chance the Republicans have in 2024. Couldn't possibly be any clearer .

Meanwhile Trump is political poison . His self absorbed ego games are completely toxic to independents, women, and younger voters .

Republicans got to give Trump the boot asap . The longer they wait, the more damage he will do .
whiterock
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EX: Exit polling is clear that Threat To Democracy and Abortion were huge issues with thoe who voted.

Are those key issues with voters at large? Was all the polling about inflation and economy wrong?

no.

Remember what I said many times: a pollster has to poll the people who actually vote.

A majority of voters think inflation and the economy ARE the big issues.
but those voters didn't show up and vote.

A smaller number of voters think abortion and threats to democracy are the big issues.
but those voters are who showed up and voted.


Every election is a base election.
If you do not turn out your own base, the independents don't matter a damned bit.
 
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