TRUMP 2024, BOOM

18,758 Views | 520 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Mothra
whiterock
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RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
Disapproval rating is what you need to look at. Trump is at 55.4%. Biden at 52.6%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

So even with Biden's abysmal record, more Americans still view him more favorably than Trump - a very bad sign.

Ain't gonna happen. Time for new blood, unless we want to lose again.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
Disapproval rating is what you need to look at. Trump is at 55.4%. Biden at 52.6%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

So even with Biden's abysmal record, more Americans still view him more favorably than Trump - a very bad sign.

Ain't gonna happen. Time for new blood, unless we want to lose again.
I see it's within the margin of error. And over a year out from the primary. Those numbers will likely change. We can debate the degree and direction, but those numbers as they stand are hardly dispositive.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
sombear
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The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
Competitive and still lose by 8 million votes. He's not going to win. You and I both know that.

DeSantis has a much better chance than Trump, if he can get past the primaries.
Canada2017
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sombear said:

The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.


DeSantis poll numbers will begin to slip once the Dem controlled media machine begins to unload on him in earnest .

Hopefully DeSantis will handle it better than Trump .



FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
FLBear5630
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Canada2017 said:

sombear said:

The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.


DeSantis poll numbers will begin to slip once the Dem controlled media machine begins to unload on him in earnest .

Hopefully DeSantis will handle it better than Trump .




DeSantis has one thing that Trump doesn't, he can govern. Media is going to find it hard to come after him if he keeps handling his business well. DeSantis will have real numbers and real programs to show. Worst they will get him for is his personality, better than Trump but not warm and fuzzy by a long shot.
FLBear5630
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Boom. This is a HUGE win for DeSantis. This lady made up all sorts of things during COVID. The media made her a hero and DeSantis a tyrant.

Her admitting guilt ends any shot of this coming up against DeSantis in 2024. This was the one thing I was worried about, more then Disney, because the media made her a hero.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/charges-against-former-state-health-181439873.html
Mothra
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RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Mothra
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Canada2017
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.


Problem is approximately 40% of the US electorate is always going to vote Democrat regardless what Biden does or doesn't do.

They know which political party is most likely to toss them a few crumbs…..and that's all that matters to them .


Mothra
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
What part of "System and" did you not understand?

Read better.
Oldbear83
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
What part of "System and" did you not understand?

Read better.
I read the whole thing. Maybe your focus on 'candidate quality' as the main problem was in error?
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
whiterock
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sombear said:

The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.
I saw that, and noted it. Also noted that it's hard to call anything "crazy good" 14 months or so before a primary, and 22 months or so before a general, because the issues which will drive both have not happened yet. Also noted the historical trend that Trump for much of the 2020-2022 period ran ahead of everyone on both sides of the aisle. STILL in some polling questions runs ahead of the field. Also noted that the current polling could well be a blip in the wake of an election in which Republicans in general and Trumpism in particular took some hard knocks.

So, again, I'm no Trumpist arguing that he is the be-all to end-all. I'm merely putting balance on the irrational exuberance that Trump is 100% at fault for a disappointing 2022 cycle ergo a dead fish rotting from the head. It is more likely in the next 90 days or so that Trump's numbers will rebound back toward historical averages than crater into irrelevance. (and then wax & wane going forward). That is hardly an uncommon dynamic in politics, you know....

It's important to note this not so much with respect to Trump as for the GOP. There are a LOT of things that caused the outcome of 2022 that had little or nothing to do with Trump, and if we don't fix them, we will merely repeat the disappointment in 2024. Because, you see, we have to win no matter who our candidate happens to be.
whiterock
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Mothra said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
Competitive and still lose by 8 million votes. He's not going to win. You and I both know that.

DeSantis has a much better chance than Trump, if he can get past the primaries.
Trump increased his vote totals by record amounts in 2022, and he did it the old fashioned way, barnstorming campaigning. If he had a mail-in ballot program comparable to the Dems, he would have won the EV going away. (remember, the election was lost by 44k votes in 3 swing states....) And a winning scenario for 2024 is not hard to devise. (execution is a different question).

DeSantis SEEMS to have a much better chance, if one looks just at the last six weeks. But on Feb 4th, credible polling had Trump AHEAD of Biden in AZ by 4, ahead in MI by 3, tied in PA. ON 18 Nov, AFTER the dreary mid-term outcome, a different credible poll had Trump up by 2 in the national election. So the "beached whale Trump" narrative is at best premature.

For example: The RCP favorability numbers show DeSantis as the ONLY politician with a net favorable number. That makes sense, but not for the reason you would likely assert. DeSantis has, compared to the others on that poll, much lower name ID. He's a state Gov, not a national figure. As he moves his brand nationally, his negative number is going to rise.....He will take incoming fire from places he's not currently getting any.....progressive media is going to introduce him to a lot of people in very negative terms. Sure, he might be able to grow his positives, too. But the point is, there is a caveat. There is always a caveat. And the biggest caveat of all is, it's getting increasingly rare for any politician on either side of the aisle to have net favorable positivity. We are at war with the left, you know..... So just working the odds, it's far more reasonable to expect DeSantis's favorability to decline over time and fall into the same muddle with the others on the list.

The difference between where you are and where I am is that you've made your mind up where things are going to be 2 years from now. You might be right. And maybe not. Every generation or so, there comes a candidate who breaks molds. Reagan did it. Clinton did it. Obama did it. Trump did it. DeSantis seems the most likely new face to follow in that tradition, but it's all potential right now. .He still has to execute, while the left is throwing festering fruit and feces at him. Trump has already been thru all that and is still standing, competitively.
whiterock
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and what happens if Casey 14 months from now, gets a diagnosis of relapsed cancer, stage 4 metastatic.

Does RDS run? (my gut says yes, but.....)

The table is stacked full of scenarios right now. Way too early to start acting as if we know the way the hands will be dealt.
whiterock
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RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Shoulda stomped him in 2020. Biden was a very average machine politician before he entered into senescent decline. Yet he won a national election rarely leaving the basement of his home. Was the outcome really all about Trump's negatives? I mean, Trump got 10m more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Unheard of. Historic. How does a guy with supposedly fatal negatives do that? (answer: the negatives are not dispositive factors. other things matter too). He grew his share of the vote in almost every meaningful demographic. (a trend which the GOP largely accomplished in 2020, too).

Biden will enter 2024 with historically high negatives, too. We now know enough to conclude how he got 5m more votes than Trump - mail-in voting operations. If we plan on campaigning on Biden's negatives in 2024 rather than building a comparable the mail-in vote operation, 2024 will play out pretty much like 2020 and 2022.

We gotta focus on fixing what we can fix right now, and candidates are not one of them. We have a primary to do that, and it's a year away. We can fish then. Time now to mend nets. Starting with selling mail-in voting to our voters and building mail-in voting infrastructure. Every thing I hear from conservative voters is that they realize the realities about mail-in voting and are ready to get serious about it.

Canada2017
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whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

fubar said:

Give us all a break. You'll vote for whatever candidate the Republicans nominate.
Ummmmm..............Yes


And in the realm of possibilities, a Trump/Desantis ticket remains near, if not at the top of the list of likely outcomes




You just can not….will not ….switch gears .

Trump is finished……he will not be on the Republican ticket in 2024 .

The midterm results were the final blow to the fantasy .

He may go 3rd party …..if only to hear the applause from his hardcore base at a hand full of MAGA rallies . After all Trump needs adoration more than air .

Sam Lowry
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POLITICS
Republicans have a post-election epiphany on mail voting
There's just one main hurdle: Donald Trump isn't ready to drop his attack on the method.

By Meredith McGraw

As Republicans come to terms with their lackluster midterm performance, top GOP officials and conservative luminaries are acknowledging voters were led astray with calls to reject early and absentee voting.

They're just not naming the leading figure who helped get them there.

There is a growing sense of alarm among the GOP ranks that the conspiracy theories Trump pushed about early voting and mail ballots not only hurt them dearly in the just completed midterms, but could take multiple cycles to remedy. Republican committees and groups have been working to educate voters on laws regarding early voting and are planning to ramp up those efforts. But they are up against not only Trump and his outsized megaphone but also a sizable swath of conservative leaders who now falsely state early voting and mail ballots are tainted.

As Republicans begin laying the groundwork for the party to embrace early and mail-in voting, they are confronting one major obstacle: Trump has exhibited no eagerness to embrace the cause.

He has promoted conservative filmmaker Dinesh D'Souza's documentary "2000 Mules," which casts ballot harvesting as a nefarious and highly coordinated operation choreographed by Democrats. And last week, he wrote on Truth Social, "REMEMBER, YOU CAN NEVER HAVE FAIR & FREE ELECTIONS WITH MAIL-IN BALLOTS - NEVER, NEVER, NEVER. WONT'T AND CAN'T HAPPEN!!!"

Top operatives point to Georgia as a prime example of the problems Trump-like skepticism can create. The former president railed against mail voting during the 2020 cycle and GOP officials believe that, in doing so, he cost himself and Senate Republicans wins in the state. His campaign against the voting method only accelerated during the Senate runoffs in Georgia that followed his election loss, during which both GOP candidates lost. And it's persisted through the 2022 cycle.

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/12/07/republicans-have-a-post-election-epiphany-on-mail-voting-00072956
FLBear5630
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whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Shoulda stomped him in 2020. Biden was a very average machine politician before he entered into senescent decline. Yet he won a national election rarely leaving the basement of his home. Was the outcome really all about Trump's negatives? I mean, Trump got 10m more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Unheard of. Historic. How does a guy with supposedly fatal negatives do that? (answer: the negatives are not dispositive factors. other things matter too). He grew his share of the vote in almost every meaningful demographic. (a trend which the GOP largely accomplished in 2020, too).

Biden will enter 2024 with historically high negatives, too. We now know enough to conclude how he got 5m more votes than Trump - mail-in voting operations. If we plan on campaigning on Biden's negatives in 2024 rather than building a comparable the mail-in vote operation, 2024 will play out pretty much like 2020 and 2022.

We gotta focus on fixing what we can fix right now, and candidates are not one of them. We have a primary to do that, and it's a year away. We can fish then. Time now to mend nets. Starting with selling mail-in voting to our voters and building mail-in voting infrastructure. Every thing I hear from conservative voters is that they realize the realities about mail-in voting and are ready to get serious about it.


Yeah, but you keep failing to mention that Biden got 12 million more. The popular vote wasn't that close.

Oh yeah, Biden's 12 million were fraudulent. Trump's 10 million were legitimate, though...

2020 was a record turnout due to EXTREME relaxation of voter rules and both sides benefited. Biden benefited more. You can't say that Trump's increase is legit and Biden's is the result of nefarious activities. They both played under the same rules, as messed up as they were.
Mothra
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Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
What part of "System and" did you not understand?

Read better.
I read the whole thing. Maybe your focus on 'candidate quality' as the main problem was in error?
Glad to see you walking back the "ignoring system issues" statement, since I haven't done anything of the sort.

I've never put a percentage on how much of it is a systemic issue, and how much of it is candidate quality because quite frankly, I am not sure what percentage to apportion to each. What I do know is that, unlike your attempts to downplay the quality of our candidates (or lack thereof), I think it's far more important to voters - especially those independents and moderates who most of the time decide elections. In short, I think candidate quality is a hell of a lot more important than you give it credit for.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
Competitive and still lose by 8 million votes. He's not going to win. You and I both know that.

DeSantis has a much better chance than Trump, if he can get past the primaries.
Trump increased his vote totals by record amounts in 2022, and he did it the old fashioned way, barnstorming campaigning. If he had a mail-in ballot program comparable to the Dems, he would have won the EV going away. (remember, the election was lost by 44k votes in 3 swing states....) And a winning scenario for 2024 is not hard to devise. (execution is a different question).

DeSantis SEEMS to have a much better chance, if one looks just at the last six weeks. But on Feb 4th, credible polling had Trump AHEAD of Biden in AZ by 4, ahead in MI by 3, tied in PA. ON 18 Nov, AFTER the dreary mid-term outcome, a different credible poll had Trump up by 2 in the national election. So the "beached whale Trump" narrative is at best premature.

For example: The RCP favorability numbers show DeSantis as the ONLY politician with a net favorable number. That makes sense, but not for the reason you would likely assert. DeSantis has, compared to the others on that poll, much lower name ID. He's a state Gov, not a national figure. As he moves his brand nationally, his negative number is going to rise.....He will take incoming fire from places he's not currently getting any.....progressive media is going to introduce him to a lot of people in very negative terms. Sure, he might be able to grow his positives, too. But the point is, there is a caveat. There is always a caveat. And the biggest caveat of all is, it's getting increasingly rare for any politician on either side of the aisle to have net favorable positivity. We are at war with the left, you know..... So just working the odds, it's far more reasonable to expect DeSantis's favorability to decline over time and fall into the same muddle with the others on the list.

The difference between where you are and where I am is that you've made your mind up where things are going to be 2 years from now. You might be right. And maybe not. Every generation or so, there comes a candidate who breaks molds. Reagan did it. Clinton did it. Obama did it. Trump did it. DeSantis seems the most likely new face to follow in that tradition, but it's all potential right now. .He still has to execute, while the left is throwing festering fruit and feces at him. Trump has already been thru all that and is still standing, competitively.
If "if's" and "but's" were...you know the saying. The idea that Trump would have won it going away with a mail-in ballot is gross speculation at best, and let's be blunt - the results the last few years have proven that you're not too good at speculation.

It's hard to think of a candidate as unpopular and polarizing as Trump, who already lost one election, being nominated again and winning. Can you provide us an example? Or is it your opinion Trump is simply a unicorn.

Mark it down: Trump cannot win in 2024.
Mothra
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whiterock said:

sombear said:

The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.
So, again, I'm no Trumpist arguing that he is the be-all to end-all.
You're the same poster who was critical of those who were critical of Trump, generally saying it serves no good purpose, while excusing his attacks on DeSantis. You still haven't explain that dichotomy.

I think you're more of a Trumpist than you make out.
Mothra
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Canada2017 said:

whiterock said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

fubar said:

Give us all a break. You'll vote for whatever candidate the Republicans nominate.
Ummmmm..............Yes


And in the realm of possibilities, a Trump/Desantis ticket remains near, if not at the top of the list of likely outcomes




You just can not….will not ….switch gears .

Trump is finished……he will not be on the Republican ticket in 2024 .

The midterm results were the final blow to the fantasy .

He may go 3rd party …..if only to hear the applause from his hardcore base at a hand full of MAGA rallies . After all Trump needs adoration more than air .


Yup. Trump/DeSantis is NEVER going to happen.
Mothra
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Well, look at this...

DeSantis tops Trump by 23 points among Republicans in new poll

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/shock-poll-trump-support-cratering-whopping-61-republicans-want-another-candidate-for-2024/

As I've been saying...
Oldbear83
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Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
What part of "System and" did you not understand?

Read better.
I read the whole thing. Maybe your focus on 'candidate quality' as the main problem was in error?
Glad to see you walking back the "ignoring system issues" statement, since I haven't done anything of the sort.

I've never put a percentage on how much of it is a systemic issue, and how much of it is candidate quality because quite frankly, I am not sure what percentage to apportion to each. What I do know is that, unlike your attempts to downplay the quality of our candidates (or lack thereof), I think it's far more important to voters - especially those independents and moderates who most of the time decide elections. In short, I think candidate quality is a hell of a lot more important than you give it credit for.
Stop and consider this for a moment.

In 2020, Trump is said to have run a failed campaign, but compared to 2016 Trump increased both his vote totals and percentage of the vote.

It's accurate to say, therefore, that Trump lost because Biden claimed higher percentage of votes in key states. That is, while treating Trump as the main reason for losing 2020 is popular with people looking for reasons to attack him, the root cause of the election losses appears to be systemic rather than a matter of charisma. That is, how in hell did Biden win? Until that is answered and an effective counter-strategy is developed, focusing on Trump in 2024 makes no more sense than would focusing on Nixon or McCain.

A lot of people are letting their emotions blind them to facts.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Mothra
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Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

Oldbear83 said:

Mothra said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Mothra said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

RMF5630 said:

whiterock said:

Not a ton of stuff, but there are a few directly asking or banging around the margins of the question discussed here, proviso being that they are a couple of weeks old. Bottom line is, as of today, there is a small amount of data indicating that RDS is running 2-3 points better against Biden than Trump is. Same for popularity. Pretty close. Within margin of error. But a trend of "advantage RDS" seems to emerge.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

And then you have to add context. The last 6 weeks of polling on these questions are more favorable for Biden and RDS, and less favorable for Trump than the historical averages since the 2022 election. So it's early. The numbers are recent. And come during the "cooldown" period following an election, not the normal vicissitudes of everyday affairs. These numbers may hold. They may return to historic averages. They may yawn against Trump. Kinda hard to bet much on which way they will go.




I cannot see any scenario where Trump is best shot to win in 24. He also needs to stay away from the Walker, Oz type candidates!


Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/
You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.



I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.
Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.
He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.
That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!
Bingo.
You are still missing the point. The media is making sure no one is crushing Biden in polls.

There are several Republicans whose job performance makes it absurd to even consider voting for Biden, but there is undeniably major media working to protect him.

Focus on the system if you want a different outcome in 2024 or even 2028.
System and candidate quality. The idea the latter doesn't matter is absurd.
So you are still ignoring the system issues.

I'm sure that will end well ...
What part of "System and" did you not understand?

Read better.
I read the whole thing. Maybe your focus on 'candidate quality' as the main problem was in error?
Glad to see you walking back the "ignoring system issues" statement, since I haven't done anything of the sort.

I've never put a percentage on how much of it is a systemic issue, and how much of it is candidate quality because quite frankly, I am not sure what percentage to apportion to each. What I do know is that, unlike your attempts to downplay the quality of our candidates (or lack thereof), I think it's far more important to voters - especially those independents and moderates who most of the time decide elections. In short, I think candidate quality is a hell of a lot more important than you give it credit for.
Stop and consider this for a moment.

In 2020, Trump is said to have run a failed campaign, but compared to 2016 Trump increased both his vote totals and percentage of the vote.

It's accurate to say, therefore, that Trump lost because Biden claimed higher percentage of votes in key states. That is, while treating Trump as the main reason for losing 2020 is popular with people looking for reasons to attack him, the root cause of the election losses appears to be systemic rather than a matter of charisma. That is, how in hell did Biden win? Until that is answered and an effective counter-strategy is developed, focusing on Trump in 2024 makes no more sense than would focusing on Nixon or McCain.

A lot of people are letting their emotions blind them to facts.
What this analysis ignores is that Biden significantly increased his vote totals over his predecessor as well. In short, more people voted for BOTH candidates, and not just Trump. Does that point to systemic issues? Perhaps, but that is not a foregone conclusion. It could mean the Dems have a better vote-harvesting operation. But it could also mean more people were motivated to vote for an alternative to Trump.

I would submit one can focus on both issues, not to the exclusion of one or the other.
Canada2017
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Mothra said:

Well, look at this...

DeSantis tops Trump by 23 points among Republicans in new poll

https://www.mediaite.com/trump/shock-poll-trump-support-cratering-whopping-61-republicans-want-another-candidate-for-2024/

As I've been saying...
23 points


In favor of a governor who just won only his 2nd term and wasn't widely known outside of his state until maybe 18 months ago.

23 points over a past president of the United States with a decades of name recognition .

IMO such a blowout this early represents just how desperate Republicans are to finally rid the party of Donald Trump
Osodecentx
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Hallelujah!
Oldbear83
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So you chose Denial.

Noted.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
 
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