Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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Mothra said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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"No one's obsessing on Trump"

Absolutely not true here.

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Ok, I'll concede there may be some, but it does reach to both extremes for and against.

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Thank you. The problem here in not Trump, but fear of Trump. I have not seen anyone in the past two months argue that Trump is the best candidate for 2024, but more than couple fanatics blaming the bulk of everything lost since 2018 on Trump.

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I would argue that fear of Trump is in fact a Trump problem. It's a candidate's job to make himself a desirable candidate, and not someone who scares people away from voting for him.

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Of course you would, that way you can ignore your own responsibility to ignore the irrelevant and focus on someone who can make a difference.

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Huh? Man you have some ****ty and obtuse takes.

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You are being very emotional today, Mothra.

And ducking the point.

My 'take' is a valid observation. Your reaction suggests you understand that but don't want to let go of your tantrum.

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Getting emotional and personal and then accusing others of getting emotional and personal in response seems to be your thing. I am not sure if it's a lack of self-awareness on your part, or intentional, but it does seem your modus operadi is projecting your own emotions upon others.

The irony of your machination that I "ducked" your point is that it was an ad hominem designed to duck my point. Instead of responding to my point that it's a candidate's job to make himself more desirable (and less fearful), you chose to absurdly accuse me of "ignoring my responsibility to ignore the irrelevant" - an accusation that is completely irrelevant to the subject discussed.

However, to the extent you feel I should have addressed your accusation, let me just say I disagree that my personal responsibility has anything to do with the subject of my post or this thread.

I'm not the one getting emotional, Mothra.

And I am not the one attacking straw men (that's not you by the way, that's the people pretending that if you don't hang Trump in effigy you are somehow a 'Trumpist' or some other silly name).

To the point of the issue, the problem is low-information voters, people who can be swayed by gaslighting and media pressure.

We see that in those sad individuals who drive alone in a car yet still wear a mask, or who believe the January 6th unarmed riots were comparable to the September 11th terrorist attacks, or who actually believe that it's better that Warnock, Fetterman, and similar crooks won elections instead of someone who wasn't perfect enough to earn the Establishment blessing.

There are genuine opportunities at hand in 2024, but we need to stay away from assumptions, especially ones which appear to 'confirm' our biases.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.

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So, again, I'm no Trumpist arguing that he is the be-all to end-all.

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You're the same poster who was critical of those who were critical of Trump, generally saying it serves no good purpose, while excusing his attacks on DeSantis. You still haven't explain that dichotomy.

I think you're more of a Trumpist than you make out.

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At least twice here I have described his attack on DeSantis as a good attack poorly timed. Pretty much spot on. RDS is a bit more *****ly than Ted Cruz, and rarely uses humor, warmth, aspirational language. He's tough, resolute, combative, leaning into the fight. (And I love that about him.) But it does open him up to critiques like "glass jaw" and "sanctimonious." The error was in timing. It would have been more effect to praise RDS as a protege at that moment in time and save the barbs for the following week.

I am by wide measure the most balanced observer here on Trump. I can point out his flaws as well as his strengths. Same for RDS - I note his many strengths while observing some areas for improvement. (and if we do research, you will see I assessed RDS as the most obvious successor to Trumpism not long after the 2020 race). That objectivity also applies to the primary race. I noted that Trump was mathematically unassailable until the mid-term result came in, then recognized the outcome seriously damaged him and moved the assessment on the 2024 primary race to a coin-toss. Instead of calling him dead & done and anointing RDS, I avoided overemphasizing a short-term period when Trump has taken a huge amount of incoming fire (which usually does move needles) over an issue (mid-term outcome) which will abate. It's hardly Trumpist to note that other issues will arise which will help Trump, or to note that Trump is not entirely devoid of assets.

And yes, neverTrumpism is destructive. It cost us the Senate in 2022. It cost us a Governorship. Loyalty is the currency of political parties. Without it, parties do not function. I have no problem whatsoever with your position on Trump. It's hasty, but within proper boundaries. But the neverTrumpers.....they'll burn it down to get their way. Then call themselves moderates trying to save the party from destruction. Moderates who finally do let themselves get whipped up into a lather forget that the people they're trying to defeat have the harder heads.

My daughter has more award-ware than she can stack on top of her refrigerator. Best this, best that, going away plaques from units, etc..... One of them was engraved "You gotta be smarter than the cow." She used it enough times that her unit decided to memorialize it. It's a concept I taught her as a kid. A cow is an exceedingly dumb animal, near the bottom of intelligence among domesticated animals. But if you throw a rope around a cow's neck and trying to force into the pens, that cow will use superior physics to drag your ass all over the pasture. Sure, you can get on a horse and chase it around and try to crowd it into the pens. But it's high risk. Ropes, fences ,and gates (and sometimes cowboys) get broken doing that. It's better to learn to never go into the pasture without a sack of range cubes. Drive over to the herd. Pour some cubes on the ground. After a few times, they'll associate you and the truck with food. Then start honking the horn on the truck while they're eating. Then, move your location to the working pens. Repeat. Then on the day when you actually want to catch the cows, all you have to do is drive to the pens, honk the horn on the truck, and pour a handful or two of cubes on the ground. The whole herd comes running. As the last of them arrive, walk into the pens and pour some more cubes out. The whole herd crowds in, afraid they'll miss out on a snack. Then close the gate behind them. At that point, you can use superior physics (steel working pens) to crowd them into the chutes and do all kinds of unpleasant veterinary things to them.

That pretty much applies to neverTrumpism. If the neverTrumpers were half as smart as they think they are, they wouldn't have to be doing what they're doing.

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Don't disagree with you about the Never Trumpers. I've posted it before - the reasonable and pragmatic Republicans are stuck between two rigid groups of extremes - those who as you said would rather burn down the party than support Trump, and the sycophants who think Trump is the only answer, no matter jhow many times he gets his ass kicked.

But I am still curious why it's ok for Trump to attack DeSantis, but other Republicans not to attack Trump. You've yet to explain that.

Balanced observer on Trump would appear to me to be one who can acknowledge the good while also recognizing his flaws, and I don't recall you saying anything negative about Trump - other than he should have doubled down on Trumpism during the 2022 midterms rather than listen to his consultants.

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The problem with the "extremes" construction is that the neverTrumpers are a very small number, while the Trumpers are (if we look at the Suffolk poll from yesterday) nearly 40% of the party. So by definition, belief that Trump is the best candidate is not an extreme argument. It's at minimum a plurality argument.

I don't have any problem with political attacks/spin going back & forth. It's the refusal to come together that is the problem.

Man, I have over time and on recent threads ceded the point on a wide range of critiques on Trump - rude, crude, socially unaccpeptable.....unpresidential.....indisciplined....etc.... "He's different." Also have several times referred to VIctor Davis Hansen's prescient speeches on Trump as a "tragic hero" which describes the Trumpism dynamic perhaps better than any other take. Trump is a hot mess by any conventional candidate criteria. But somehow, he manages to turn it into an asset. His critics never bother to understand why.

Populism is always a factor in an election, but usually quite muted in times of peace and prosperity. When we have multiple social system failures amid economic distress, one can expect to see populism proliferate across the spectrum. In the American context, for most of our lives, cultural hegemony was conservative and leftism was a populist demand for change. Today, cultural hegemony is still conservative, but most societal institutions have adopted the leftist worldview nearly in total. So we have a very odd and unsustainable situation where cultural leadership is attacking it's own culture, but unable to perceive how out of touch it is with ordinary people due to confirmation bias echoing in from other cultural institutions. The left THINKS it has won the argument, but in reality ordinary people are waking up & backing away from it. That is a perfect situation for a populist awakening in the center against cultural elites. The .populist uprising is from the center, it is conservative, and it represents a cultural majority. THAT is why political elites are freaking out about Trumpism.

That's why our nominee will be Trumpist even if it's not Trump. The timing is right.
That's why the most Trumpist of the contenders is the one emerging as the most viable alternative to Trump.

And that's why we have to be careful on two questions:
Is it time to jettison Trump?
How do we jettison Trump?
Those questions are made all the more difficult by the reality that, despite conventional wisdoms by people who are very tired of Trump's schtick, Trump does have gifts that appeal (in many ways uniquely) to tens of millions of people. Not only CAN he win. He might still be the best chance. The Democrats know that. That's why they're an army of grandmas with hoes chasing him like a rattlesnake slithering thru the garden, hissing and banging pots & pans. If they weren't worried about him, they'd ignore him.

So politic away. But if I'm CEO of the Republican party, I'm firing the next person who uses the cord "candidate" adjacent or near to the word "quality." And I'm stating to the staff: "anyone else who uses a word starting with "c" and ending with "e" is going to get fired. We have a process to select candidates. It's called a primary. It's a year away. So get your asses to work on the other important things that need to be done, like strengthening our small donor funding networks, mail-in voter operations, etc..... We need to be building a *******ed freight train, not arguing about conductors."

harrumpf....

RMF5630 said:

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Mothra said:

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RMF5630 said:

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whiterock said:

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RMF5630 said:

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Right now, he's very competitive.

More polling on Biden:
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/12/10/poll-joe-biden-approval-under-water-nearly-every-key-issue/

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You can say and show what you want, polling is polling. **** in, **** out. I deal with surveys, models and simulation everyday.

The polls showed a Red Wave, the polls underestimated Trump in 20, and the polls showed Clinton winning in 16. They are notoriously inconsistent. To the point that they are basically bar talk. You never know what poll and which race it will be accurate on. Look at the spread from the 2022 midterms, you have a better shot beating Vegas using a spread of sports betting sites!

https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2022/11/the-best-and-worst-polls-from-the-2022-midterm-elections/

There is a "feel" to elections that polling doesn't capture and analytics misses. You can feel how elections are going, you could feel Clinton was not going to win even though the polls gave her up to a 99% chance of winning. Just like now, you can feel that Trump is losing ground. As much as the "data people" want to say different, I am not buying it. He is self-destructing is what I am seeing and the constant attacks are starting to ***** the armor, see NY Tax Valuation Case. I suspect more is to come. Attaching your wagon to Trump is a losing proposition. I really hope GOP get's new blood, we can't survive another Biden type Presidency.

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I agree with that statement in bold, and it is consistent with the available polling data, context being Trump was unassailable and now it's a horse race.

Polls are not the be all to end all. Some are better than others. And the "some" and the "others" vary from cycle to cycle. But when you spot a trend in nearly all the polls, it's hard to "yeah, but" it away. And they are the only data we really have directly speaking to whatever hypotheses or gut feelings we might have. In this case, they do not at all appear to conflict and seem to be pointing in the same direction.

A big part of analysis is reconciling what "should" happen with what "will" happen. Right now, the entirely reasonable proposition that Trump should go away seems quite strong among the chattering class and wizards of smart (this board). But the will go away proposition is not quite so clear, due to long timeframe (primaries are a year away), course of future events (the mid-term effect will diminish and we will see some issues arise which play to Trump's strengths), rules & calendars of the primaries (always a big factor), and the enduring nature of Trump's appeal with +33% of the GOP base (many of whom do not think the way we think here).

I like RDS. I want to know more about his campaign operations for mail-in voting. From what I understand, FL law is quite a bit more restrictive than the laws in the key battleground states, so we need to know how we plan to address that as a national campaign by BOTH party and candidate. If we do not spent $500m on such in about 6-8 key states, we have no chance to win no matter who is our candidate.

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Unfortunately, the sycophants that comprise the GOP's base will indeed likely decide the candidate this next election cycle. But let's not pretend Trump is going to be competitive in a national election, at this point.

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He will be competitive against Biden, as the above polling you posted clearly shows. Others maybe not.

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That is the problem, he shouldn't be competitive with Biden! The GOP should be able to stomp this guy with the job he is doing. The fact that Trump is "just" competitive is a negative!

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Shoulda stomped him in 2020. Biden was a very average machine politician before he entered into senescent decline. Yet he won a national election rarely leaving the basement of his home. Was the outcome really all about Trump's negatives? I mean, Trump got 10m more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. Unheard of. Historic. How does a guy with supposedly fatal negatives do that? (answer: the negatives are not dispositive factors. other things matter too). He grew his share of the vote in almost every meaningful demographic. (a trend which the GOP largely accomplished in 2020, too).

Biden will enter 2024 with historically high negatives, too. We now know enough to conclude how he got 5m more votes than Trump - mail-in voting operations. If we plan on campaigning on Biden's negatives in 2024 rather than building a comparable the mail-in vote operation, 2024 will play out pretty much like 2020 and 2022.

We gotta focus on fixing what we can fix right now, and candidates are not one of them. We have a primary to do that, and it's a year away. We can fish then. Time now to mend nets. Starting with selling mail-in voting to our voters and building mail-in voting infrastructure. Every thing I hear from conservative voters is that they realize the realities about mail-in voting and are ready to get serious about it.

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Yeah, but you keep failing to mention that Biden got 12 million more. The popular vote wasn't that close.

Oh yeah, Biden's 12 million were fraudulent. Trump's 10 million were legitimate, though...

2020 was a record turnout due to EXTREME relaxation of voter rules and both sides benefited. Biden benefited more. You can't say that Trump's increase is legit and Biden's is the result of nefarious activities. They both played under the same rules, as messed up as they were.

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played under same rules with different game plans. Biden's was way better. If Trump had added a mail-in voter operation, he'd have won enough swing states to win the election.

Funny, though, nobody else in the GOP seems to have realized that. So in 2022, they doubled down and ran the same kind of campaign Trump did in 2020.....conventional GOTV efforts, fundraising efforts, etc.....seeking to drive election day turnout to counter Dem mail-in voting operations. Big time fail.

I would posit that the wizards of smart were so sure the 2020 loss was solely attributable to Trump that they didn't think they needed to do anything but put up a better candidate. Then, lo & behold, 2022 happened. And now, the wizards of smart are saying once again that it was all Trump's fault and we need to put up better candidates.

It's almost like having a good excuse is more important than having a win.

When have we EVER heard Dems criticize their candidates?
They can find out ways to get Hobbs, Warnock, Fetterman elected.
They can get an openly bi-sexual woman elected Senator over the first female fighter jet pilot in a State where moderates allegedly rule the roost.
How the hell does a progressive film-maker whose sole political experience was a losing House race win a Senate seat in GA?
Did Dems didn't cite lack of experience or nutty election-denying nonsense about Stacey Abrahms?
Have we hard a single critique from the left about Beto or Crist?
Mandela Barnes is a moderate candidate in a swing state?
(we could go on an on.)

Democrats never complain about their candidates.
They just figure out how to get them elected.

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This is a Hall of Fame post...

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Is it? I don't recall much criticism of candidates by Republicans pre-Trump. Do you? The vicious personal attacks that he engaged in with his fellow candidates in 2016 set a new low watermark for politics. If anything, attacking other Republican candidates became a thing after Trump started engaging in it.

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No, the Dems doing what it take to win a seat, regardless of who is running.

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The shoot their "nevers" on sight.

90sBear said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

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saw that. entirely expected result, consistent with history. "repeat" candidates are very rare in our political tradition.

but it doesn't address the converse, which is what frames the conversation we're having - what happens if the two parties end up nominating the two most unpopular politicians in view?

At the moment, that is the most likely scenario. In which case many of the key arguments against Trump are mitigated or even undermined.

Analyzing how a race like that might look is about as much fun as having to dig down to the septic tank and drain it with buckets because it's too muddy to get the pumper truck in.

'Don't Run Joe' campaign launches first TV ad in New Hampshire urging Biden not to seek reelection
Progressive organization RootsAction launched its first television ad in New Hampshire as part of its "Don't Run Joe" campaign urging President Biden not to seek reelection.
The 60-second ad is airing statewide on local evening new channels and on "Jimmy Kimmel Live" through the local ABC affiliate.
In the spot, several New Hampshire Democratic voters air concerns about Biden's low job approval ratings and ability to take on a Republican candidate in 2024.
Voters in the ad also say Biden is representing the "status quo" and slam the president for not pursuing progressive goals, including a greater push to tackle climate change and implement policies such as universal health care.
RootsAction launched the "Don't Run Joe" campaign in November, one day after the midterm elections and after first announcing the effort in July.
Biden, who recently celebrated his 80th birthday, has not announced his 2024 candidacy but has said he intends to run for reelection. The president last month teased that an announcement could come early next year.
About 70 percent of Americans don't want Biden to seek reelection, according to a new poll, with many largely citing concerns over his age.
Jeff Cohen, the co-founder of RootsAction, said the campaign is "just getting started" and the advertisements would soon run in more states.
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3773627-dont-run-joe-campaign-launches-first-tv-ad-in-new-hampshire-urging-biden-not-to-seek-reelection/

whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

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saw that. entirely expected result, consistent with history. "repeat" candidates are very rare in our political tradition.

but it doesn't address the converse, which is what frames the conversation we're having - what happens if the two parties end up nominating the two most unpopular politicians in view?

At the moment, that is the most likely scenario. In which case many of the key arguments against Trump are mitigated or even undermined.

Analyzing how a race like that might look is about as much fun as having to dig down to the septic tank and drain it with buckets because it's too muddy to get the pumper truck in.

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That's what frames the conversation you want to have. Just about everyone else wants talk about how they hope Trump doesn't win the primary for a variety of reasons.

whiterock said:

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And that's why we have to be careful on two questions:
Is it time to jettison Trump?
How do we jettison Trump?
Those questions are made all the more difficult by the reality that, despite conventional wisdoms by people who are very tired of Trump's schtick, Trump does have gifts that appeal (in many ways uniquely) to tens of millions of people. Not only CAN he win. He might still be the best chance. The Democrats know that. That's why they're an army of grandmas with hoes chasing him like a rattlesnake slithering thru the garden, hissing and banging pots & pans. If they weren't worried about him, they'd ignore him.

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Trump's 'major announcement' tease is for release of digital card collection

Former President Trump on Thursday announced a line of digital trading cards bearing his likeness after teasing a day earlier that he would be making a "major announcement."
While some speculated the announcement would be related to the Speaker race playing out among House Republicans or Trump's largely inactive 2024 presidential campaign, it was instead about a new money-making outlet for the former president.
Trump boasted that the digital trading cards "feature amazing ART of my Life & Career!" and compared them to a baseball card, "but hopefully much more exciting." The cards are on sale for $99 each.
A day earlier, Trump had teased a "major announcement," posting on Truth Social that "America needs a superhero."
Trump is the only declared candidate in the 2024 GOP primary field, having announced his campaign in mid-November at his Mar-a-Lago estate. But in the month since, he has not held any campaign events, traveled to any early voting states or built out his staff.
The former president has instead made headlines for a slew of controversies, most notably when he hosted white nationalist and Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes for dinner alongside the rapper Ye, who had also made antisemitic comments in recent weeks.
https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/3776530-trumps-major-announcement-tease-is-for-release-of-digital-card-collection/

90sBear said:

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whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

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saw that. entirely expected result, consistent with history. "repeat" candidates are very rare in our political tradition.

but it doesn't address the converse, which is what frames the conversation we're having - what happens if the two parties end up nominating the two most unpopular politicians in view?

At the moment, that is the most likely scenario. In which case many of the key arguments against Trump are mitigated or even undermined.

Analyzing how a race like that might look is about as much fun as having to dig down to the septic tank and drain it with buckets because it's too muddy to get the pumper truck in.

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That's what frames the conversation you want to have. Just about everyone else wants talk about how they hope Trump doesn't win the primary for a variety of reasons.

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but he could win the primary. And Joe appears to want to run (with blessing of his wife, if we are to believe media stories). So Biden V. Trump is, despite whatever we might wish to talk about, among the most likely handful of outcomes. At that point, the scatological dilemmas write themselves.

Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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Mothra said:

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whiterock said:

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sombear said:

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The last 3 national polls have Trump barely behind Biden and have Desantis a few points ahead of Biden. If you're a Trump fan, this isn't awful news, although to still trail a historically unpopular president is concerning. If you're a Desantis fan, while it's very early, it's crazy good news. He should not be doing that well nationally when he still has very low name ID. That said, I have not seen the poll backup data so that could be keeping his negatives artificially low also.

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So, again, I'm no Trumpist arguing that he is the be-all to end-all.

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You're the same poster who was critical of those who were critical of Trump, generally saying it serves no good purpose, while excusing his attacks on DeSantis. You still haven't explain that dichotomy.

I think you're more of a Trumpist than you make out.

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At least twice here I have described his attack on DeSantis as a good attack poorly timed. Pretty much spot on. RDS is a bit more *****ly than Ted Cruz, and rarely uses humor, warmth, aspirational language. He's tough, resolute, combative, leaning into the fight. (And I love that about him.) But it does open him up to critiques like "glass jaw" and "sanctimonious." The error was in timing. It would have been more effect to praise RDS as a protege at that moment in time and save the barbs for the following week.

I am by wide measure the most balanced observer here on Trump. I can point out his flaws as well as his strengths. Same for RDS - I note his many strengths while observing some areas for improvement. (and if we do research, you will see I assessed RDS as the most obvious successor to Trumpism not long after the 2020 race). That objectivity also applies to the primary race. I noted that Trump was mathematically unassailable until the mid-term result came in, then recognized the outcome seriously damaged him and moved the assessment on the 2024 primary race to a coin-toss. Instead of calling him dead & done and anointing RDS, I avoided overemphasizing a short-term period when Trump has taken a huge amount of incoming fire (which usually does move needles) over an issue (mid-term outcome) which will abate. It's hardly Trumpist to note that other issues will arise which will help Trump, or to note that Trump is not entirely devoid of assets.

And yes, neverTrumpism is destructive. It cost us the Senate in 2022. It cost us a Governorship. Loyalty is the currency of political parties. Without it, parties do not function. I have no problem whatsoever with your position on Trump. It's hasty, but within proper boundaries. But the neverTrumpers.....they'll burn it down to get their way. Then call themselves moderates trying to save the party from destruction. Moderates who finally do let themselves get whipped up into a lather forget that the people they're trying to defeat have the harder heads.

My daughter has more award-ware than she can stack on top of her refrigerator. Best this, best that, going away plaques from units, etc..... One of them was engraved "You gotta be smarter than the cow." She used it enough times that her unit decided to memorialize it. It's a concept I taught her as a kid. A cow is an exceedingly dumb animal, near the bottom of intelligence among domesticated animals. But if you throw a rope around a cow's neck and trying to force into the pens, that cow will use superior physics to drag your ass all over the pasture. Sure, you can get on a horse and chase it around and try to crowd it into the pens. But it's high risk. Ropes, fences ,and gates (and sometimes cowboys) get broken doing that. It's better to learn to never go into the pasture without a sack of range cubes. Drive over to the herd. Pour some cubes on the ground. After a few times, they'll associate you and the truck with food. Then start honking the horn on the truck while they're eating. Then, move your location to the working pens. Repeat. Then on the day when you actually want to catch the cows, all you have to do is drive to the pens, honk the horn on the truck, and pour a handful or two of cubes on the ground. The whole herd comes running. As the last of them arrive, walk into the pens and pour some more cubes out. The whole herd crowds in, afraid they'll miss out on a snack. Then close the gate behind them. At that point, you can use superior physics (steel working pens) to crowd them into the chutes and do all kinds of unpleasant veterinary things to them.

That pretty much applies to neverTrumpism. If the neverTrumpers were half as smart as they think they are, they wouldn't have to be doing what they're doing.

---

Don't disagree with you about the Never Trumpers. I've posted it before - the reasonable and pragmatic Republicans are stuck between two rigid groups of extremes - those who as you said would rather burn down the party than support Trump, and the sycophants who think Trump is the only answer, no matter jhow many times he gets his ass kicked.

But I am still curious why it's ok for Trump to attack DeSantis, but other Republicans not to attack Trump. You've yet to explain that.

Balanced observer on Trump would appear to me to be one who can acknowledge the good while also recognizing his flaws, and I don't recall you saying anything negative about Trump - other than he should have doubled down on Trumpism during the 2022 midterms rather than listen to his consultants.

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The problem with the "extremes" construction is that the neverTrumpers are a very small number, while the Trumpers are (if we look at the Suffolk poll from yesterday) nearly 40% of the party. So by definition, belief that Trump is the best candidate is not an extreme argument. It's at minimum a plurality argument.

I don't have any problem with political attacks/spin going back & forth. It's the refusal to come together that is the problem.

Man, I have over time and on recent threads ceded the point on a wide range of critiques on Trump - rude, crude, socially unaccpeptable.....unpresidential.....indisciplined....etc.... "He's different." Also have several times referred to VIctor Davis Hansen's prescient speeches on Trump as a "tragic hero" which describes the Trumpism dynamic perhaps better than any other take. Trump is a hot mess by any conventional candidate criteria. But somehow, he manages to turn it into an asset. His critics never bother to understand why.

Populism is always a factor in an election, but usually quite muted in times of peace and prosperity. When we have multiple social system failures amid economic distress, one can expect to see populism proliferate across the spectrum. In the American context, for most of our lives, cultural hegemony was conservative and leftism was a populist demand for change. Today, cultural hegemony is still conservative, but most societal institutions have adopted the leftist worldview nearly in total. So we have a very odd and unsustainable situation where cultural leadership is attacking it's own culture, but unable to perceive how out of touch it is with ordinary people due to confirmation bias echoing in from other cultural institutions. The left THINKS it has won the argument, but in reality ordinary people are waking up & backing away from it. That is a perfect situation for a populist awakening in the center against cultural elites. The .populist uprising is from the center, it is conservative, and it represents a cultural majority. THAT is why political elites are freaking out about Trumpism.

That's why our nominee will be Trumpist even if it's not Trump. The timing is right.
That's why the most Trumpist of the contenders is the one emerging as the most viable alternative to Trump.

And that's why we have to be careful on two questions:
Is it time to jettison Trump?
How do we jettison Trump?
Those questions are made all the more difficult by the reality that, despite conventional wisdoms by people who are very tired of Trump's schtick, Trump does have gifts that appeal (in many ways uniquely) to tens of millions of people. Not only CAN he win. He might still be the best chance. The Democrats know that. That's why they're an army of grandmas with hoes chasing him like a rattlesnake slithering thru the garden, hissing and banging pots & pans. If they weren't worried about him, they'd ignore him.

So politic away. But if I'm CEO of the Republican party, I'm firing the next person who uses the cord "candidate" adjacent or near to the word "quality." And I'm stating to the staff: "anyone else who uses a word starting with "c" and ending with "e" is going to get fired. We have a process to select candidates. It's called a primary. It's a year away. So get your asses to work on the other important things that need to be done, like strengthening our small donor funding networks, mail-in voter operations, etc..... We need to be building a *******ed freight train, not arguing about conductors."

harrumpf....

---

Sorry, but the question regarding whether we should jettison Trump was answered when he got his ass kicked in 2020 by one of the worst Democrat candidates in modern history. And if that question wasn't answered in most reasonable observers' minds after the 2020 ass kicking, then it should have been answered this past November, when Trump's hand-picked MAGA candidates also got their asses kicked again.

I asked you before and I will ask again - when is the last time a party ran the same candidate who lost the last election, and he won the next election? It happened one time, in 1888, when Grover Cleveland ran and won after a very narrow loss in the electoral college (after winning the popular vote) in 1884. In short, it's rare and highly unlikely to be repeated.

The idea that a guy who already got his ass kicked, whose approval rating has never exceeded 50%, and whose popularity has only decreased since he left office is still viable (and has perhaps the best chance of defeating Biden) is asinine at best. Reasonable observers would do well not to continue to maintain that fiction.

Trump is done. Sure, he may win the Republican nomination, but he will never win the general election.

---

I think I pointed out that issue in bold long before you did, as a qualification to an assessment. Such is indeed very rare in our political tradition. But, then, so are businessmen with no political tradition getting elected POTUS......

The popularity argument you close with is valid and compelling. It only needs context. This conversation is occurring at a nadir of his support over the last two years. From here, the numbers could go down, but not far. He's probably at his hard floor of support. More likely, they will rise. The only question is how high. A year is a long time, and there are a longish list of pros/cons that apply to each man's situation. Neither of them is untalented. Will be interesting to watch.

There have been a number of polls the last few days which all show a trend of Trump falling behind DeSantis. Frankly, that makes sense.....polling numbers starting to reflect what I hear and interpret as I move around. But again, we cannot ignore context. Almost all of those recent polls, as well as the conversations/comments I hear personally, are in a binary context. "Who would you rather have, Trump or DeSantis?" RDS is going to win that one almost every time, if for no other reason than your comment in bold. Problem is, the primary field will not look like that, initially. That will work to Trump's favor. Remember, he won a LOT Of delegates in 2016 with 25-35% of the vote.

What that means is, you should not be hammering on Trump. You should be hammering on everyone else who might run not named RDS. (just some advice I think you'd get if you had a paid consultant on staff.....)

whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

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saw that. entirely expected result, consistent with history. "repeat" candidates are very rare in our political tradition.

but it doesn't address the converse, which is what frames the conversation we're having - what happens if the two parties end up nominating the two most unpopular politicians in view?

At the moment, that is the most likely scenario. In which case many of the key arguments against Trump are mitigated or even undermined.

Analyzing how a race like that might look is about as much fun as having to dig down to the septic tank and drain it with buckets because it's too muddy to get the pumper truck in.

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That's what frames the conversation you want to have. Just about everyone else wants talk about how they hope Trump doesn't win the primary for a variety of reasons.

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but he could win the primary. And Joe appears to want to run (with blessing of his wife, if we are to believe media stories). So Biden V. Trump is, despite whatever we might wish to talk about, among the most likely handful of outcomes. At that point, the scatological dilemmas write themselves.

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I didn't say he couldn't, I said most everyone here doesn't want him to. And that, despite your discouragement, we can continue to point out reasons why.

90sBear said:

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whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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whiterock said:

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90sBear said:

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https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/politics/biden-trump-2024-poll/index.html

CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they'd like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election.

Support for another Trump bid for the presidency among Republican-aligned voters has declined across three CNN polls on the topic this year. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party's nominee, and now, 38% say the same.

The steepest drops in support for a Trump bid came among older Republican-aligned voters (from 55% of Republicans and Republican-leaners 65 or older supporting a Trump bid in January to 37% in support of one now), White voters with college degrees (from 31% backing Trump in January to 16% now) and those who describe themselves as very conservative (from 65% behind a Trump bid then to 42% now).

---

saw that. entirely expected result, consistent with history. "repeat" candidates are very rare in our political tradition.

but it doesn't address the converse, which is what frames the conversation we're having - what happens if the two parties end up nominating the two most unpopular politicians in view?

At the moment, that is the most likely scenario. In which case many of the key arguments against Trump are mitigated or even undermined.

Analyzing how a race like that might look is about as much fun as having to dig down to the septic tank and drain it with buckets because it's too muddy to get the pumper truck in.

---

That's what frames the conversation you want to have. Just about everyone else wants talk about how they hope Trump doesn't win the primary for a variety of reasons.

---

but he could win the primary. And Joe appears to want to run (with blessing of his wife, if we are to believe media stories). So Biden V. Trump is, despite whatever we might wish to talk about, among the most likely handful of outcomes. At that point, the scatological dilemmas write themselves.

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I didn't say he couldn't, I said most everyone here doesn't want him to. And that, despite your discouragement, we can continue to point out reasons why.

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That is why we have Primaries. If he wins the nomination, he will get a shot at the General. I hope he doesn't. I just do not see any upside to him running or even winning.

If he runs and loses, Dems get an easy path to WH. If he somehow wins, the Dems and Media will not let him do anything but defend himself for 4 years.

Either way, the Nation is screwed. I wish he would decide not to run. But I know better, he does not think that way. It is all about the Donald.

Mothra said:

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If Trump can't win a general election, which he can't, we should all be hammering on him at this point, and encouraging strong alternatives, like RDS. It makes no sense to hammer on alternatives when the party is about to hitch its wagon to an unhinged loser.

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They can't quit Trump. It's absolutely bizarre, and incomprehensible.

ATL Bear said:

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Mothra said:

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If Trump can't win a general election, which he can't, we should all be hammering on him at this point, and encouraging strong alternatives, like RDS. It makes no sense to hammer on alternatives when the party is about to hitch its wagon to an unhinged loser.

---

They can't quit Trump. It's absolutely bizarre, and incomprehensible.

---

Really is.

Only explanation I can come up with is they do not believe anyone else will champion their causes. I am not sure there is anyone out there that will appease that part of the population, outside of someone they consider one of their own.

By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

Sam Lowry said:

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RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

<chuckles>

Our football board is relatively tame compared to a number of schools. But yes, Football is the first religion for many people, women as well as men.

I once had a job interview where - not kidding - the panel asked questions about what teams I supported/followed.

RMF5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

---

Game ?

Coaches making millions of dollars in salary ( far more than any university president ) players getting paid ….legalized gambling on the game results .

It's a huge business .

There is no 'game' left .

RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You are late to the Football board and the personalities have been set, they know each other. You've upset the gravitational pull of the poles

The reason it is so petty is because it matters so little

Oldbear83 said:

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RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

<chuckles>

Our football board is relatively tame compared to a number of schools. But yes, Football is the first religion for many people, women as well as men.

I once had a job interview where - not kidding - the panel asked questions about what teams I supported/followed.

---

I think i got my job in Flirida based on my brother playing at a P5 level school the interviewer attended. Only note the guy made was his uniform number!

Ridiculous how much pull it has.

Canada2017 said:

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RMF5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

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RMF5630 said:

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By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

---

Game ?

Coaches making millions of dollars in salary ( far more than any university president ) players getting paid ….legalized gambling on the game results .

It's a huge business .

There is no 'game' left .

---

Yet it produces nothing. I lost my respect for it working in the panhandle. Couldn't get money for a water purification plant for a town with benzene in water. Emmitt Smith's bonus would have paid for 2.

Also, spent too much time with players and coaches. Good guys, but none of it is worth millions of dollars. So, I don't have much reverence. Have more respect for people that actually produce something besides entertainment. That said, right now I want BU to win as they are who I am following at this time.

RMF5630 said:

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Sam Lowry said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

---

Because it's all about jerseys either way.

RMF5630 said:

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Canada2017 said:

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RMF5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

---

Game ?

Coaches making millions of dollars in salary ( far more than any university president ) players getting paid ….legalized gambling on the game results .

It's a huge business .

There is no 'game' left .

---

Yet it produces nothing. I lost my respect for it working in the panhandle. Couldn't get money for a water purification plant for a town with benzene in water. Emmitt Smith's bonus would have paid for 2.

Also, spent too much time with players and coaches. Good guys, but none of it is worth millions of dollars. So, I don't have much reverence. Have more respect for people that actually produce something besides entertainment. That said, right now I want BU to win as they are who I am following at this time.

---

I stopped caring about college football 2-3 years ago.

Its all a fraud.

90% of the coaches and players don't give a damn about the school they play for.

All about the $$$$$.

Canada2017 said:

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RMF5630 said:

---

Canada2017 said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Sam Lowry said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

By the way, this is going to sound like a bizarre question. Are the only reasonable people on this site in the Politics Message Board? I swear everything in Waco is bizzarro world! The only people I see debating, arguing and still being at least civil to each other is on this Board. I see guys giving each other hard times on their views and fighting, but getting over it. The Football Board is like a friggiing Cult, disagree (Hell, not even disagree just bring up a different perspective) and it turns into Children of the Corn.

---

You're right, that does sound like a bizarre question.

---

Tell me about it. I expect the political stuff to get rough, I thought football was a relatively safe subject. It is a game.

---

Game ?

Coaches making millions of dollars in salary ( far more than any university president ) players getting paid ….legalized gambling on the game results .

It's a huge business .

There is no 'game' left .

---

Yet it produces nothing. I lost my respect for it working in the panhandle. Couldn't get money for a water purification plant for a town with benzene in water. Emmitt Smith's bonus would have paid for 2.

Also, spent too much time with players and coaches. Good guys, but none of it is worth millions of dollars. So, I don't have much reverence. Have more respect for people that actually produce something besides entertainment. That said, right now I want BU to win as they are who I am following at this time.

---

I stopped caring about college football 2-3 years ago.

Its all a fraud.

90% of the coaches and players don't give a damn about the school they play for.

All about the $$$$$.

---

I think it will get worse.

Yep me too.

Guy Noir said:

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Yep me too.

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Getting there quickly!

Guy Noir said:

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Yep me too.

---

Its a con game .

And alumni are the ones getting conned the worst.



Now players are getting paid ....then using the 'portal' to leave on a moments notice.

Not paying the freight any longer. To hell with the entire system .

Canada2017 said:

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Guy Noir said:

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Yep me too.

---

Its a con game .

And alumni are the ones getting conned the worst.



Now players are getting paid ....then using the 'portal' to leave on a moments notice.

Not paying the freight any longer. To hell with the entire system .

---

I get what your saying.

But not paying the freight is at pandemic levels. The younger generations do not seem to be willing to do what past generations did. I am watching 50 somethings that paid their dues and should now be highest with seniority at the end of their careers having to do the same entry level work and shift because younger generation won't. I am really worried about who is going to pay the freight in the future. It is really bad in health field now

RMF5630 said:

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ATL Bear said:

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Mothra said:

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If Trump can't win a general election, which he can't, we should all be hammering on him at this point, and encouraging strong alternatives, like RDS. It makes no sense to hammer on alternatives when the party is about to hitch its wagon to an unhinged loser.

---

They can't quit Trump. It's absolutely bizarre, and incomprehensible.

---

Really is.

Only explanation I can come up with is they do not believe anyone else will champion their causes. I am not sure there is anyone out there that will appease that part of the population, outside of someone they consider one of their own.

---

That's the biggest part of it. it's a bigger cultural issue within the GOP than Dems. And your last sentence hints at why. Dem leadership seems to always have a genuine concern for the desires of its grassroots, and actively seeks opportunities to advance the progressive agenda, which Dems tend to see is the true purpose of politics. GOP, on the other hand, tends to see their grassroots as unreasonable nutjobs getting in the way of what they believe to be the true purpose of politics - compromising with Dems. The perception that Trump would be different in that regard was a big part of why he won in 2016 (primary and general). In office, Trump proved that he would leave it all on the battlefield to do what he promised, no matter how much grief he got. That's why he has such enduring support. Trumpists are not unreasonable. They are entirely logical. Show them someone who will fight like Trump, and then the issue of moving on largely becomes and issue of fairness and gratitude.. (and there is a credible contender in view, btw.)

The flipside: the Trump critique in this and a couple other current threads is reflective (to matters of degree) of not just a majority of posters here, but of what I see hear elsewhere - a wide range of arguments all spinning on an axis unelectability. What those arguments are hardly unreasonable, they are also not ineluctable.

Amid that dynamic, we see conflicting poll numbers. Some showing RDS pulling ahead. Others, like the one below from this weekend's lede in the Economist, show him still in the lead.



The trend could continue. Or it could not. From the hardly Trump-friendly National Review:

"I'm way more hesitant to call it over for Trump. I even think the NFT sale wasn't entirely worthless it certainly brought in some funds. Trump is funnier, and attracts more of the spotlight, than any of his rivals. If he starts putting in the work by giving speeches and figuring out which lines get a response, he'll identify the issues that matter, and increasingly ditch the grievances about 2020 that don't."
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/is-trump-done/

That Economist story noted above reflects the discussion here. It's got a neverTrump spin, clearly accepting the electability premise of posts from ATL and Mothra, but does note the caveat I have pointed out. Yes, the slippage of 10 points is real; but he's effectively unassailable at 46% in anything other than a 2-man primary field. A hard-floor base of 38% and a favorable rating of 69% is hardly a weak position.

Donald Trump's popularity with Republican voters is sinking
Polls reveal a fall in support for him to Make America Great Again, again

Dec 18th 2022 | WASHINGTON, DC

IN HIS BOOK "The Art of the Deal," Donald Trump admonishes businessmen who engage in cons and implores entrepreneurs to deliver results for their clients. Eventually, he says, a con artist can no longer outrun the people they've betrayed. "You can't con people, at least not for long," the former president wrote in his business bestseller, written before his political ascent. "You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press…But if you don't deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on." In these remarks Mr Trump proved prescient about the business of politics; after defeat in three key elections in a row, his supporters have caught on to the con.

New polling from The Economist and YouGov, our partner in weekly surveys of American adults, shows Mr Trump has never been less popular with Republican voters. According to YouGov's latest poll, conducted between December 10th and 13th, just 46% of respondents who said they were either Republicans or independents who "lean towards" the Republican Party said they wanted Mr Trump to run for their party's nomination again. Thirty-seven per cent didn't want him to run at all (see chart).
Compared with previous YouGov polls, that is the highest share yet of anti-Trump members of the Republican rank-and-file. In September, when YouGov began asking this question regularly, just 27% of Republicans said they did not want the former president to run again. Over the same three-month period the share who want Mr Trump to make America great again, again, has fallen from 56% to 46%. Some of the biggest declines have been among Republican women (57% to 41%), African-Americans (66% to 42%) and Republican voters who do not have college degrees (62% to 52%).

Mr Trump has also been losing ground in early polls for the Republican nomination in 2024. Several recent surveys have found him trailing Florida's governor, Ron DeSantis, in a head-to-head matchup. One poll from Suffolk University in Boston found support for Mr DeSantis at 56%, a full 23 percentage points ahead of Mr Trump. Other surveys disagree. One released by Morning Consult on December 11th shows Mr Trump 18 points ahead of Mr DeSantis. The first Republican primary is 14 months away, so these polls are of little use in predicting what would happen in that contest. But they do show that the former president's return is not as likely as once thought.

True, Mr Trump does not need all Republican primary voters to unite behind him in order to secure the nomination. He could win with a plurality. That is because the election rules adopted by many states' Republican Party committees, which oversee the selection of the presidential candidate, grant all or a significant number of a state's delegates to the national party convention to the winner of the statewide popular vote. That is how Mr Trump was able to amass a large lead in pledged delegates early in the contest in 2016, despite polling between 30% and 35% for most of February and March, when the earliest-voting states made their choice.

Though his fortunes are fading, Mr Trump may still have a enough underlying support to repeat this trick. YouGov's poll reveals that 38% of Republicans identify themselves as "MAGA" Republicans and 68% still rate Mr Trump "very" or "somewhat" favourably. If the rest of the party is unable to unite behind a challengeras was the case in 2016 when Ted Cruz, a senator from Texas, John Kasich, then the governor of Ohio, and Marco Rubio, a senator from Florida, split the anti-Trump votehe could consolidate enough delegates to clinch the nomination again. The state party committees could also change the delegation-selection rules before 2020

Poor performance by Republicans in this year's midterms underlined Mr Trump's political weaknesses. Most of the candidates for Congress that he endorsed did worse than expected and most of those running for statewide office lost. Any dispassionate observer reflecting on his performances in 2018, 2020 and 2022 will see that Mr Trump has now lost key elections three times and never secured the votes of a majority of Americans (in 2016 the anachronistic electoral college, not the people, put him in the White House). Most Americans long ago decided that it was time to move on. Republican voters may at last be deciding the same.

RMF5630 said:

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Canada2017 said:

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Guy Noir said:

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Yep me too.

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Its a con game .

And alumni are the ones getting conned the worst.



Now players are getting paid ....then using the 'portal' to leave on a moments notice.

Not paying the freight any longer. To hell with the entire system .

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I get what your saying.

But not paying the freight is at pandemic levels. The younger generations do not seem to be willing to do what past generations did. I am watching 50 somethings that paid their dues and should now be highest with seniority at the end of their careers having to do the same entry level work and shift because younger generation won't. I am really worried about who is going to pay the freight in the future. It is really bad in health field now

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The return on investment just isn't there for younger people like it was for you (assuming Boomer or an adjacent generation). My dad bought the house I grew up in for $40k, with no college and working at a power plant (the "Homer Simpson" life I humorously call it). I just bought a house in that what I would say is a comparable classification (much better neighborhood though) for over $550k. That price differential is insane. Throw in health care costs, student loans (neither of which were huge problems 40nyears ago), etc. and it shouldn't be all that hard to see how discouraging that is to current generations. Hard work only gets you so far, and "so far" becomes less and less every year.

This gets said a lot, but we younger people are just trying to make it in the system that you older people built for us, and y'all have been conditioned strenuously to resist any change whatsoever when your leaders invoke "socialism" or "wokeism" as code words for things that would infringe in their profit margins.