I am a little unclear on your mail in ballots theory. Do you believe that only Dems voted using mail in ballots?whiterock said:First, I pointed out Youngkin and Desantis and Abbott not to show Trump was a boon, but rather to show Trump was not an anchor. He has GROWN the party share of a wide number of important demographics. Secondly, the lovers & haters construction is a mild false dilemma. Most people I talk to about Trump are neither. The average joe doesn't take politicians terribly seriously and are not as bothered by the crazy stuff they say and do as the junkies are. Yes, he is a motivator, both pro and con. We just have to do better on the pro side of that equation.Mothra said:Some revisionist history here...Quote:There are quite a few more factors in last week's disappointment than Trump.Quote:I would normally agree with you, but your analysis yet again fails to consider one very obvious x factor and distinction - Trump and his presidency are, shall we say, unique? This isn't the Obama presidency. This isn't Bush II. This isn't Reagan. Instead, it's a disgraced, re-tread, twice impeached, maybe soon under indictment, election-denying buffoon who taints everyone he touches. As others have aptly pointed out, it is baffling that you fail to consistently consider this fact in your analysis. There is a reason that Pence, and others who were apart of the Trump admin, have steered clear of running for public office. Sure, they may land nice jobs at FOX news, or write a best-selling book, but all have been tainted by Trump, and I suspect most will never be elected to office again.Quote:I'm surprised you asked this question, as it's a well-known facet of history. If one had to choose a platform from which to run for POTUS, based on track-record, VP is the runaway obvious choice.Quote:If Trump miraculously wins in 2024, and DeSantis is his running mate, what makes you think after a brutal 4 years that puts DeSantis in the best position to win the presidency in 2028? How have the members of Trump's admin fared since 2020? Most of them are looked on as pariahs who will never hold office again.Quote:
Yes, it would. But he will bear the pain because it puts him in the best position to win in 2028.
That's assuming he doesn't win the 2024 nomination, which he very well might.
Again, you just can't seem to fathom the amount of toxicity that Americans associate with Trump. He taints everyone he touches.
then it's Big-State governor.
Senator is not bad, but governor is better.
Then it kinda falls off a cliff.
Cabinet officials, out-of-office elected officials, etc..... VERY spotty record.
Before Trump, a businessman with no political experience had never been elected. It was considered so unlikely as to be completely unserious. So anything can happen.
And if you drill down into the nuts & bolts, it makes sense why the list looks like that. It gets down to how much power your office holds, what are the attendant fundraising bases, etc......
But if you're playing Game of Thrones and wanna be POTUS, you definitely would prefer to declare on the front porch of Blair House than anywhere else. You would be the only guy running with governing power and true nationwide political and fundraising networks in-place. It's a tremendous head start on the field.
There is another metric at play - 17 years (IIRC). If you look at the resumes of the men who've been elected, most have gone from entry into politics to entry into the WH in 17 years or less. It's an observation more than a determinant. It's like, if you've been around for 30 years and haven't risen to the top yet, your cream is probably curdled. (see Biden, Joe). You've already been seen, weighed, measured, and...meh. Obviously, there are exceptions (see Biden, Joe) and I think Bush 41 also qualifies. But then there's Trump, and Obama, and Bush 43 and Clinton and Reagan and.....you get the drift. Our presidents tend to rise out of the Miasma of politics pretty quickly. DeSantis would be on the shorter end of that timeline...beating Obama by 2 years.
Does DeSantis want that same fate in 2028, when Trump loses badly to whatever Democrat runs against him? How has that worked out for Mike Pence? Think he has a snowball's chance in hell of a successful run for president? Of course not.
Again, your inability to recognize the elephant in the room is somewhat baffling for an otherwise thoughtful poster. Undoubtedly, your inability to gage the temperature of the country has contributed to your abysmal record of predictions. Trump and his candidates haven't won much since 2016. The error in your idea that's going to change should have become painfully obvious a couple of Tuesdays ago, when almost all of the candidates he threw his weight behind lost, despite one of the most unpopular Democrat presidencies in the history of our country.
Just further proof that Trump taints everything he touches.
Well, there is a guy named DeSantis and a guy named Youngkin and a guy named Abbott, (and quite longish list of others) all of whom managed to get elected in spite of strong Trump endorsements. Desantis in particular was struggling and the Trump endorsement lifted him out of a crowded field. DeSantis was, at the time, literally in the same bucket as the Trump endorsements this cycle - the right-most candidate, unknown, underfunded, opposed by establishments, etc... And his first election against a leftie loon was quite a squeaker. Could have very easily gone the other way. So could a few races this cycle. From that inauspicious start, DeSantis has done very, every well. All on his own. But he might not have made it without the endorsement.
You're framing bias is profound.
You cannot lay all the losses and none of the successes at Trump's feet.
I've asked you this multiple times now, but haven't gotten a response, so I will try one more time: what makes you think Trump can win in 2024, given his abysmal track record since 2016? What do you put his chances at in 2024?
I have answered that last question in detail on other threads. He's sitting on 75m votes. He has a great record of policy accomplishments. He has a sold base of support not often seen in modern politics. If he builds the right campaign machine, he can win. Without a doubt. Yes, he will face obstacles mostly due to objectionable bits of his persona. But the alternatives face obstacles, too. Like starting out years and millions of votes behind without a comparably large and fervent base of support, and without any indication that Trump base of support will transfer over to others. That is not to say others can't fix/build what they need. Just noting they don't have it TODAY and Trump does.
It's also worth noting that I am not the one making the prognostication that this candidate or that is the right one or has it all sewn up. I'm the one pointing out pros/cons overlooked in the rash judgment of others.
It's at least a year until the potential contenders have to commit. Let's see what things look like then.
I like Ron Desantis. A lot. I'd go to war with him. Or Trump. Or whoever else gets the nomination. It's all you other guys who are laying all the conditions.
Would you agree with me that things have changed for Trump since he first endorsed DeSantis in 2018? DeSantis was endorsed before Trump's myriad of legal issues, before he was impeached, and before all of the drama that stemmed from his election denying nonsense. Trump was more popular before all of those events, and not at that time the albatross he is now. But that ship sailed long before the 2020 election.
As for Youngkin, if you recall, Youngkin pretty much sidelined Trump during his candidacy. After receiving Trump's endorsement early, Youngkin didn't use Trump at all. He appeared at no rallies, and was hardly even mentioned by Youngkin. I recall the NY Times doing a piece on Youngkin about how he successfully managed to sideline Trump while at the same time not alienating him or his supporters. DeSantis pretty much did the exact same thing in his last election. Vance did the same thing. It was the candidates that embraced Trump and spouted the election denying rhetoric that fared poorly this last election.
So your idea that Trump remains a boon to his candidates is no longer accurate.
As for the last question, I am not sure you've given any facts that support your theory that Trump can do now, as a much less popular candidate, what he couldn't do in 2020. And it also fails to account by Trump's toxicity and the visceral reaction that most Americans have against him. Joe found 80 million of those people in 2020 - better than Trump's 75 million.
There's been nothing rash about judgment of Trump. We've seen this since 2016 - a candidate who has a large following but an even larger number of haters. A candidate unable to control his worse tendencies. And a candidate much less popular now than he was in 2020, when he lost by about 6 million votes. You've given no one any evidence at all that he can somehow turn that around.
I don't have any conditions. I simply want a candidate who can win, and not a loser and re-tread. You apparently like losers and re-treads.
The results of 2022 actually help explain 2020 a bit, the parts about how a guy who grew his vote total by so much (not common for an incumbent) got beat by a guy who campaigned from the basement. If we up our game and do a better job of getting mail in ballots from people who actually don't like Biden (who has polled below Trump for most of his presidency), we have a good chance of success. Yes, I know I know I know....most here think Biden won't be running in 2024. He clearly wants to run, the mid-terms make it harder for them to dump him, and there is only one clear appealing successor that wouldn't start the same kind of war we're worried about in a Trump vs the field GOP primary = MichellO, and she's never given any indication at all she is or would be interested.
If you'll quit working the premise that Trump cannot possibly be elected, this will all get a little clearer, to include who I"lll be supporting, which you continue to impute rather than assess.
I concede the very remote possibility that Trump could get elected. It would take something tantamount to a miracle given his lack of popularity at present, but I suppose it could happen if one can prevent him from doubling down on conspiracy theories that have little to no basis in fact or reality, if he's not indicted, and if can start to control his worst impulses at the ripe old age of 76.
My issue with your take is you seem to think that not only is 2024 Trump the best hope we have, a take which I find completely and totally absurd, but that he has more than a snowball's chance in getting elected - something that I believe if you were intellectually honest would admit has no basis in fact.