Osodecentx said:

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RMF5630 said:

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Osodecentx said:

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You link Caine to Trump?

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It would be Quig I link him to Trump and Keefer (Fred McMurray) to the media. Media created Trump through constant attacks, a flawed and insecure President. Keefer did the same. Both resulted in distrust that could not be overcome.

It is a good analogy, actually. Caine was the boat.

---

The book is The Caine Mutiny. I don't think the analogy is apt, but c'est la vie

---

The name of the boat/ship is the USS Caine in the book. I guess we are both correct.

RMF5630 said:

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Mothra said:

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RMF5630 said:

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Mothra said:

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RMF5630 said:

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Oldbear83 said:

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RMF: " Trump has every right to run, but that does not mean I want him to run. I can understand and defend both."


I go further. I want Trump to run, but to fail to collect the support he got in 2016.

---

Agree. It is more powerful if whoever wins it knocks out the Champ. Trump is the Champ of the GOP, for better or worse. DeSantis has to knock him out to get his support.

---

Don't agree at all with this. It would be best for Trump to bow out gracefully and avoid the blood bath of the primaries. Personally attacking and denigrating his fellow Republican contenders in the end only serves to hurt the party as a whole. And we all know, based on past and recent conduct, that is what Trump will do - attempt to galvanize his sycophants against DeSantis and others with petty, childish and disgusting taunts which only serve to destroy civility and lower the discourse. His disgusting treatment of Ted Cruz's family remains a low water mark, and most likely ruined Ted's chances of ever getting the nomination in the future.

---

You really think that will happen? He will have to be beaten soundly, even then he won't go. He will claim cheating or RINO's or some other crap. Personally, him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!

---

Of course not. His ego won't let him. The post I was responding to was you and Oldbear agreeing you wanted Trump to run. As stated above, I do not. I think that's about the worst thing that can happen for the good of the conservative cause, as set forth above.

If he does lose the primaries, it would not surprise me at all if he attempts to run third party. This is not a guy who concedes defeat. For that additional reason, Trump passing the torch and deciding not to run would be best for the cause.

---

I think that is the only way there is any chance of getting rid of him. Or, he is a martyr. They aren't going to convict him of anything that eliminates him, that is more a "Gee, what would solve this cleanly?" Thought

---

Good discussion.
I'm of 2 minds:
1. It is bad to indict a former president. I don't like the optics & it makes the other side feel like they need to indict the other guy's president.

2. It makes Trump a martyr and keeps him in the news. The Trumpkins take his side, defend him and do crazy. Dems want him to be the focus of all things political and he will oblige..

Osodecentx said:

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RMF5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

RMF: " Trump has every right to run, but that does not mean I want him to run. I can understand and defend both."


I go further. I want Trump to run, but to fail to collect the support he got in 2016.

---

Agree. It is more powerful if whoever wins it knocks out the Champ. Trump is the Champ of the GOP, for better or worse. DeSantis has to knock him out to get his support.

---

Don't agree at all with this. It would be best for Trump to bow out gracefully and avoid the blood bath of the primaries. Personally attacking and denigrating his fellow Republican contenders in the end only serves to hurt the party as a whole. And we all know, based on past and recent conduct, that is what Trump will do - attempt to galvanize his sycophants against DeSantis and others with petty, childish and disgusting taunts which only serve to destroy civility and lower the discourse. His disgusting treatment of Ted Cruz's family remains a low water mark, and most likely ruined Ted's chances of ever getting the nomination in the future.

---

You really think that will happen? He will have to be beaten soundly, even then he won't go. He will claim cheating or RINO's or some other crap. Personally, him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!

---

Of course not. His ego won't let him. The post I was responding to was you and Oldbear agreeing you wanted Trump to run. As stated above, I do not. I think that's about the worst thing that can happen for the good of the conservative cause, as set forth above.

If he does lose the primaries, it would not surprise me at all if he attempts to run third party. This is not a guy who concedes defeat. For that additional reason, Trump passing the torch and deciding not to run would be best for the cause.

---

I think that is the only way there is any chance of getting rid of him. Or, he is a martyr. They aren't going to convict him of anything that eliminates him, that is more a "Gee, what would solve this cleanly?" Thought

---

Good discussion.
I'm of 2 minds:
1. It is bad to indict a former president. I don't like the optics & it makes the other side feel like they need to indict the other guy's president.

2. It makes Trump a martyr and keeps him in the news. The Trumpkins take his side, defend him and do crazy. Dems want him to be the focus of all things political and he will oblige..

---

There is no good answer to someone like Trump. Sorry to say.

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

A lot people don't know that Trump had a very brief run for the White House in 2012. Didn't get any traction and for all practical purposes Trump backed out and then tried to pretend he never ran that year.

We like to talk up the next election like its next month, but really the time between the mid-terms and the next POTUS election is a very long time. To see what I mean, here are the status of the eventual successful challenger and the frontrunner at the time for each election since 1974:

1974 Carter had not announced Ted Kennedy was Dem front-runner
1978 Reagan was GOP front-runner*
(1984 incumbent won re-election)
(1988 incumbent party won)
1990 Clinton had no announced Paul Tsongas was Dem front-runner
(1996 incumbent won re-election)
1998 George W Bush was GOP front-runner*
(2004 incumbent won re-election)
2006 Obama had not yet announced Hillary Clinton was Dem front-runner
(2012 incumbent won re-election)
2014 Trump had not yet announced Rick Perry and Scott Walker were GOP favorites
2018 Biden had not yet announced Hillary Clinton was Dem front-runner

* Although Reagan and Bush were favorites from the start of their campaigns, both were established through their policies and accomplishments as Governors of major states, not mere popularity.

The public mood is fickle, and most successful candidates stay out of the arena until they are ready to run a focused, relatively brief campaign of 15-17 months in length. Even without available alternatives, Trump's support is likely to subside by the fall of 2023 through attention fatigue alone.

It's even plausible to think that Trump will bow out if and when he perceives that voters would rather support a DeSantis, Cruz, Haley or some new face. He just doesn't want to be seen as being forced to sit this one out.

FYI Florida going to change resign to run law.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2022/11/30/desantis-resign-run-governor-law-legislature-president/

RMF5630 said:

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Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

yep. only way out.

Mark Penn (Clinton pollster) said on Fox News on election night "if DeSantis can beat Trump in a primary, he will be very hard to defeat in a national election." Penn is correct.

Polling on the primary is all over the place. Some show largely static, some show RDS easing ahead. Marquette published one yesterday that had RDS up 60-40 with primary voters. Yes, Marquette has been among the least reliable units over the last decade. But one can impute a trend. Trump is under pressure, proximate cause of which is GOP establishment trying to saddle him with the disappointing results of the mid-terms. But Trump-fatigue is going to be a factor as well. The question is how to exploit it.

RDS is playing a Rose Garden strategy. Wisely.

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

yep. only way out.

Mark Penn (Clinton pollster) said on Fox News on election night "if DeSantis can beat Trump in a primary, he will be very hard to defeat in a national election." Penn is correct.

Polling on the primary is all over the place. Some show largely static, some show RDS easing ahead. Marquette published one yesterday that had RDS up 60-40 with primary voters. Yes, Marquette has been among the least reliable units over the last decade. But one can impute a trend. Trump is under pressure, proximate cause of which is GOP establishment trying to saddle him with the disappointing results of the mid-terms. But Trump-fatigue is going to be a factor as well. The question is how to exploit it.

RDS is playing a Rose Garden strategy. Wisely.

---

RDS has an advantage, he can govern. Trump can only talk and fight off law suits. Florida will remove rule that Gov has to resign to rum for Pres thus session. That will help.

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

What is RNC saying about the proposed primary shift, moving South Carolina up to first primary? Iowa has always been a strange place to begin, as you never know what is going to happen there--sometimes not for a week or so, in fact. Looking at SC, Trump won the 2016 primary with only 32% of the vote, as Rubio and Cruz spilt close to 50% between themselves. Trump was off to the races after that. Florida Gov. should do pretty well in South Carolina but who knows.

My prediction for SC is that based on his current arc, Trump gets 24% of the Primary Vote, but DeSantis gets 61% of the vote.

CNN will obsess on the remaining 15%.

xxx yyy said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

What is RNC saying about the proposed primary shift, moving South Carolina up to first primary? Iowa has always been a strange place to begin, as you never know what is going to happen there--sometimes not for a week or so, in fact. Looking at SC, Trump won the 2016 primary with only 32% of the vote, as Rubio and Cruz spilt close to 50% between themselves. Trump was off to the races after that. Florida Gov. should do pretty well in South Carolina but who knows.

---

Right now only the DNC is discussing it, not RNC

Osodecentx said:

---

xxx yyy said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

What is RNC saying about the proposed primary shift, moving South Carolina up to first primary? Iowa has always been a strange place to begin, as you never know what is going to happen there--sometimes not for a week or so, in fact. Looking at SC, Trump won the 2016 primary with only 32% of the vote, as Rubio and Cruz spilt close to 50% between themselves. Trump was off to the races after that. Florida Gov. should do pretty well in South Carolina but who knows.

---

Right now only the DNC is discussing it, not RNC

---

Agreed, but almost all states have the two primaries on same day, sparing the State added costs. I would think Desantis folks would think an early SC primary would be more helpful to them than not.

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And there it is:

Sam lies about me being a 'Trumpkin'

Sam ignores his hypocrisy - yet again

Sam is silent on the Left's tactics demonizing any Republican who looks to be a threat

And Sam is willing to throw anyone under the bus, denying them even basic rights, if it happens he does not like them.

In another place and time, Sam would have been a happy Vichy collaborator.

---

Yer a loon.

---

I am correct. Sorry if that offends you, but every word I posted was absolute veracity.

Oldbear83 said:

---

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And there it is:

Sam lies about me being a 'Trumpkin'

Sam ignores his hypocrisy - yet again

Sam is silent on the Left's tactics demonizing any Republican who looks to be a threat

And Sam is willing to throw anyone under the bus, denying them even basic rights, if it happens he does not like them.

In another place and time, Sam would have been a happy Vichy collaborator.

---

Yer a loon.

---

I am correct. Sorry if that offends you, but every word I posted was absolute veracity.

---

Because you say so? Laf.

Absolute truth is faith-based process.

Objective truth can be proven. Let's start with your claim that Sam would deny anyone their basic rights. Prove it.

You won't. You'll accuse me of being emotional, or a TDSer, or say that I am asking you to do my homework or any of the various dodges you use to avoid any accountability by way of proof. It's your costume, designed to distract.

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And there it is:

Sam lies about me being a 'Trumpkin'

Sam ignores his hypocrisy - yet again

Sam is silent on the Left's tactics demonizing any Republican who looks to be a threat

And Sam is willing to throw anyone under the bus, denying them even basic rights, if it happens he does not like them.

In another place and time, Sam would have been a happy Vichy collaborator.

---

Yer a loon.

---

I am correct. Sorry if that offends you, but every word I posted was absolute veracity.

---

Because you say so? Laf.

Absolute truth is faith-based process.

Objective truth can be proven. Let's start with your claim that Sam would deny anyone their basic rights. Prove it.

You won't. You'll accuse me of being emotional, or a TDSer, or say that I am asking you to do my homework or any of the various dodges you use to avoid any accountability by way of proof. It's your costume, designed to distract.

---

You seem to be more bitter than usual today, quash.

Whatever it is, I hope you have a better day tomorrow.

As for Sam, his posts prove my point. Of course, you and he will deny it in a manner reminiscent of Fauci now pretending he never demanded lockdowns or wanted anyone fired for having a different opinion from him.

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

And there it is:

Sam lies about me being a 'Trumpkin'

Sam ignores his hypocrisy - yet again

Sam is silent on the Left's tactics demonizing any Republican who looks to be a threat

And Sam is willing to throw anyone under the bus, denying them even basic rights, if it happens he does not like them.

In another place and time, Sam would have been a happy Vichy collaborator.

---

Yer a loon.

---

Yep.

xxx yyy said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

whiterock said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

"him being convicted would be the cleanest way to get rid of him!"

Absolutely the worst way to go. Here is why:

1. Trump regards himself as a martyr. Being accused won't cause him to pull out, nor will an indictment. And frankly he has not done anything (actual proof) where he would be facing actual jail time, and even then, that does not bar a candidate from running for office, and absolutely it would not make Trump stop.

2. Noise from the Democrats makes clear that they intend to give any leading Republican the same kind of attacks. This absolutely must be opposed by ALL Republicans, even when they are initially going after Trump.

3. This kind of tactic also allows Democrats to distract from their criminal policy plans. Republicans need to keep the focus on legislation, policy and everything else the Left is doing that affects real Americans. Playing court games lets the Democrats set the rules and venue. Hell to the no.

---

Can see all those points. But, got news for you - It is all going to happen anyway.

Trump will see himself as a martyr even if he wins!

Dems will attack on "Saving Democracy" and the GOP is tyrants. Jan 6th idiots saw to that.

Dems will distract and come after whoever it is. Expect investigations and media stories. That is just how it gets played now.

So, my view of wanting him convicted is just to shut him up. Selfish pleasure, not a political strategy.

---

what makes you think convicting him will shut him up?

---

Good point!

---

and then....the Democrats will never NOT let him be on the ballot. Jail or not. They will be talking J6 and Quid Pro Quo on Ukraine and........

Never let your opponent dictate what you can/cannot do. Pick your battle on the field of your choosing. Make your opponent respond to that. If you start try to play clever defense to avoid incoming salvos....well, you'll just spend all your time down in the bottom of your foxhole.

Donald Trump WILL be on the ballot for at least the next two election cycles, whether he draws breath or not.
We gotta deal with it.
The question is how.
It MIGHT not be better to try to keep him hidden.
Maybe he does less damage having him out making his own case, firing up his own type of voter to overwhelm his detractors.

Not arguing that is necessarily so.
Just noting that seeking a "post-Trump" scenario is a fools errand.

---

DeSantis has to beat him straight up in a Primary. Simple as that.

---

What is RNC saying about the proposed primary shift, moving South Carolina up to first primary? Iowa has always been a strange place to begin, as you never know what is going to happen there--sometimes not for a week or so, in fact. Looking at SC, Trump won the 2016 primary with only 32% of the vote, as Rubio and Cruz spilt close to 50% between themselves. Trump was off to the races after that. Florida Gov. should do pretty well in South Carolina but who knows.

---

the logic of loading up the calendar with three small state elections is that it makes it easier for grass rootsy candidates to catch fire, to capitalize on personal skills, hands-on campaigning, to force them to get close to real people in three very different purple states: non-urban types in a mid-west farming state, moderate but flinty new-englanders, bible-belt conservatives. IF you have a candidate who can connect with 2 or more of those types of voters, you have a real prospect. The goal is to weed out the dweebs, the guys who speak well or wear a suit well. Voters will see thru one-dimensional candidates at arms length. Any prospect which flashes in those early primaries then has to spin quickly to ramp up to a big state - FL - a state that's not only large but is cut-up by a lot of TV markets, making advertising more expensive than other states, forcing that grass rootsy type candidate to turn those early small state wins into a massive fund-raising machine that can go nation-wide. It's a very steep hill, but it does weed people out.

Times change. SC has grown and isn't quite as advertised as a "small bible belt" state in the same sense it was. NH has been more blue than purple. And FL has gone uber big-time. But Dems are proposing changes. Usually, proposed changes are driven by factions trying to help/hinder one candidate or the other, to tip the rules in their favor. Moving IA well down the schedule would help Biden, as he would not have to caucus there until the race was largely decided and could mail it in. Would NH vote to dump him for someone running to his left? And SC was the state that basically got him the nomination in 2020. So my hypothesis here would be that the DNC is trying to set it up for Biden to slide thru easily.

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

No. This conviction of his company is the first in a line coming at him. This alone gives the Dems more ammo than they need to kill him in a General Election. Dems will not stop and contrary to what he believes it is not helping him or his surrogates.

I give him a 5% chance of winning, he is done. His credibility is gone. I give DeSantis a 50% chance. Against DeSantis, I think the Dems have a 45% chance.

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

RMF5630 said:

---

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

---

Is there any money in it for him?

RMF5630 said:

---

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

---

Yes he will .

Purely for revenge .

Osodecentx said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

---

Is there any money in it for him?

---

So long as the media pays attention there is still a branding gain.

quash said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

---

Is there any money in it for him?

---

So long as the media pays attention there is still a branding gain.

---

Until he loses. He will pull out and blame it on unfairness.

RMF5630 said:

---

quash said:

---

Osodecentx said:

---

RMF5630 said:

---

LateSteak69 said:

---

Mothra said:

---

Questions:

1. Do you think Trump will be the GOP nominee?
2. What percentage chance do you give him of winning the 2024 general election?

---

as each day passes he does additional things that make him look somehow worse, so no i don't think he will be the GOP candidate.

There are still enough Trumpkin cultists that will vote for him no matter what he does, so that alone will make things interesting. But people seem to finally be jumping off the bandwagon, surprisingly that includes a few on this site.

---

Follow up question:

Once he figures out he will not be the GOP Nominee does he go 3rd Party?

---

Is there any money in it for him?

---

So long as the media pays attention there is still a branding gain.

---

Until he loses. He will pull out and blame it on unfairness.

---

I was talking in the 3d party context where there would be nothing to pull out of since he would be on the ballot in a lot of states. Causing damage to the GOP nominee but that's not his problem.

Boy howdy, if you could bottle all this spite and hate, you'd be rich selling it to Mittens and the other E-boys.

Oldbear83 said:

---

Boy howdy, if you could bottle all this spite and hate, you'd be rich selling it to Mittens and the other E-boys.

---

Speaking of being on brand...

quash said:

---

Oldbear83 said:

---

Boy howdy, if you could bottle all this spite and hate, you'd be rich selling it to Mittens and the other E-boys.

---

Speaking of being on brand...

---

yes, you do seem to be heavily invested in marketing that particular product.