The GOP's Lost Independents Masters, Bolduc and Oz, among others, turned off swing vo

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Osodecentx
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The GOP's Lost Independents
Masters, Bolduc and Oz, among others, turned off swing voters.
By The Editorial Board
Republican midterm election losses are piling up, as Democrats retained the Senate over the weekend and may still retake the House. An honest examination is in order as the recriminations fly, and the most striking midterm result so far is how the GOP lost the middle of the electorate in crucial races for Congress.
The GOP did well in getting out its voters. In the two main election surveys, more Republicans than Democrats turned out to vote: 36% to 33% in the national media exit poll, and 49% to 43% in the AP VoteCast. Republicans could get a majority share of the final House vote without getting a House majority. So much for the GOP's supposed gerrymandering edge.
What cost the GOP is that it lost voters who identify as independents, who now make up a quarter to more than 40% of the electorate, depending on the state. According to Gallup, in October this year 33% of voters nationwide identified as Republicans, 29% as Democrats and 35% as independents. Forty-eight percent of the self-identified independents said they lean Republican while 42% lean Democrat.
In a typical midterm, those voters should be inclined to swing against the party in power, especially given inflation and President Biden's low job approval. This year they didn't. According to the national media exit poll, of the 31% of voters who identify as independent, 49% voted Democrat and 47% Republican. In the AP VoteCast survey, independents favored Democrats by four points.
Those numbers are startling compared to the usual pattern for independents in midterms. According to CNN polling, in 2018 54% of independents voted Democrat and 42% voted Republican. (Democrats added 40 House seats.) In 2010, 56% of independents voted Republican and 37% voted Democrat for a Republican pickup of 63 House seats. In 2014, 54% voted Republican and 42% voted Democrat, adding an extra 13 Republican House seats.
The results are worse for Republicans in key races. In Arizona, 40% of voters in the Senate race identified as independent in an exit poll, and of those, 55% voted for Democrat Mark Kelly and 39% for Republican Blake Masters, who lost a winnable race.
In Pennsylvania, 24% of voters identified as independent and an amazing 58% of them voted for the left-wing Democrat John Fetterman compared to 38% for Mehmet Oz. Ditto in Georgia, where 24% of voters identified as independent and Democrat Raphael Warnockwon 53% of them compared to 42% for Herschel Walker. In New Hampshire, 43% of voters call themselves independents and 54% of them voted for Democrat Maggie Hassan over Republican Donald Bolduc.
The message couldn't be clearer. Independent voters in swing states may be unhappy with the direction of the country, but they didn't trust the GOP enough to give them power. Abortion seems to have been one factor that cut against the GOP this year, and the pro-life party will have to adjust its policy and message for 2024.
Mr. Trump's hand-picked candidates who supported the stolen 2020 election line to win his endorsement also appear to have driven away swing voters. The excuse coming from the MAGA media and Blake Masters, who lost badly in Arizona, that Mitch McConnell didn't spend enough money to save him doesn't stand scrutiny. Mr. Masters raised too little money himself and got little help from Mr. Trump.
The counter example is Florida, where Republicans were able to create a separate governing identity from Mr. Trump. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis won 53% of independent voters to Democrat Charlie Crist's 45%.
In today's closely divided politics, some partisans think all you need to do is drive your own base supporters to the polls. That's important but not sufficient. If Republicans want to keep losing elections, they'll keep nominating candidates who turn off swing voters.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-gops-lost-independents-midterms-election-voter-exit-polls-blake-masters-oz-fetterman-democrats-republicans-11668369522
4th and Inches
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U felt this needed a new thread? Cute
Life is a comedy to those who think, a tragedy to those who feel.

Jean Racine
Osodecentx
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Thanks
He Hate Me
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Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
Osodecentx
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He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs
He Hate Me
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Osodecentx
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He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.
He Hate Me
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.
Osodecentx
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He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?
He Hate Me
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?


Mail in voting, ballot harvesting, Biden promising (and duping) alot of college students and graduates who are indebted. That's better than the reflexive and repetitive blaming of Donald Trump.
Osodecentx
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He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?


Mail in voting, ballot harvesting, Biden promising (and duping) alot of college students and graduates who are indebted. That's better than the reflexive and repetitive blaming of Donald Trump.
"What is the secret to eternal happiness?"

"To not argue with fools."

"I disagree."

"Yes, you are right."
He Hate Me
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?


Mail in voting, ballot harvesting, Biden promising (and duping) alot of college students and graduates who are indebted. That's better than the reflexive and repetitive blaming of Donald Trump.
"What is the secret to eternal happiness?"

"To not argue with fools."

"I disagree."

"Yes, you are right."


That explains your misery.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?


Mail in voting, ballot harvesting, Biden promising (and duping) alot of college students and graduates who are indebted. That's better than the reflexive and repetitive blaming of Donald Trump.
"What is the secret to eternal happiness?"

"To not argue with fools."

"I disagree."

"Yes, you are right."


That explains your misery.
Per usual, you miss the point.
Osodecentx
How long do you want to ignore this user?
No mention of Trump, just ballot harvesting. The Republican governor of Ohio must have had a hell of an operation going
Oldbear83
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.


Per usual, you miss the point. If polls were wrong, you don't use polls to tell why other polls were incorrect.


What went wrong? What is your take?


Mail in voting, ballot harvesting, Biden promising (and duping) alot of college students and graduates who are indebted. That's better than the reflexive and repetitive blaming of Donald Trump.
"What is the secret to eternal happiness?"

"To not argue with fools."

"I disagree."

"Yes, you are right."


That explains your misery.
Per usual, you miss the point.
Per usual the mob mocks the truth.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Oldbear83
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Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Osodecentx said:

He Hate Me said:

Why do we draw from post-election polls to tell us why pre-election polls were wrong?
A close examination of a strategy, winning or losing, informs


Your story relies on polls.
Whether in medicine, investing, baseball, or chess, you want to know what went wrong.
The difference between analysis and self-gaslighting is whether you are depending on facts or opinion.

By definition all polls are built on opinion.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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