Latinos are not a monolith, and their political decisions are also shaped by age, region, and the immigration histories of their families.
Democrats Need Latinos at the Polls. But Will They Turn Out?
LAS VEGAS Children ripped from their parents' arms and held in sweltering tent cities. Immigration raids outside hospitals, schools and courthouses. An onslaught of ads and speeches delivering insults and racist remarks.
With the hard-fought midterm elections less than three weeks away, Democratic Party strategists hope Latino voters who are angered by the Trump administration's policies and divisive language will help deliver resounding victories in many of the races that will decide political control in Washington. If ever there were a time to cast protest ballots, they reason, it would be with President Trump in the White House.
But interviews with dozens of Hispanic voters in Nevada and California, two key battleground states, showed a more complicated picture that is deeply alarming to Democratic Party officials. Away from campaign rallies and candidates, many voters said they felt disempowered rather than emboldened; they expressed feelings of cynicism, apathy and fear fueled by the highly fraught political moment. Others said that messaging about immigration policy alone is not enough to motivate them.
And some have simply lost faith that politicians will follow through on their promises once the elections are over.
"It's the same as in Mexico they promise people they're going to help, and they don't," said Cesar Gustamente, 28, over a plate of carne asada in east Las Vegas, when asked about why he might not vote in the tossup Senate race there.
Mr. Gustamente, who is Mexican-American, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and has been upset by President Trump's language. But "there are times where you're just wasting your time on voting," he said.
An election-year intensity gap between whites and Hispanics is one of the biggest worries for the Democrats heading into the midterms. They would stand a far better chance of capturing many of the Republican-hld House districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, they say, if Hispanic adults registered and voted in greater numbers.
A recent NBC-Wall Street Journal national survey showed a spike in interest in the election among Hispanic voters, but part of the challenge for Democrats is the sharp divisions among those voters. Latinos are not a monolith, and their political decisions are also shaped by age, region, and the immigration histories of their families. Exit polls after the 2016 election found that nearly 30 percent of Latino voters supported Mr. Trump, though some surveys put that figure closer to 20 percent.
At the local level, Hispanic voters are even more willing to support Republicans they know, creating difficulties for Democrats in an election where some of the most imperiled G.O.P. incumbents are not be as vulnerable as they may seem on paper.
"To paint all Latinos with the same brush, as being Democrats and having progressive views on issues, even on immigration, is a little bit too simplistic," said William Frey of the Brookings Institution. "Organizers have to get into the nuances of various Latinos populations."
There is precedent for the Democrats to worry. While many political strategists believed Mr. Trump's anti-immigrant stance during the 2016 presidential election would propel historic numbers of Hispanic voters to turn out, the percentage of eligible Hispanics who cast ballots actually declined modestly from 2012, according to census data analyzed by Mr. Frey.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/21/us/trump-latinos-democrats-midterms.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Democrats Need Latinos at the Polls. But Will They Turn Out?
LAS VEGAS Children ripped from their parents' arms and held in sweltering tent cities. Immigration raids outside hospitals, schools and courthouses. An onslaught of ads and speeches delivering insults and racist remarks.
With the hard-fought midterm elections less than three weeks away, Democratic Party strategists hope Latino voters who are angered by the Trump administration's policies and divisive language will help deliver resounding victories in many of the races that will decide political control in Washington. If ever there were a time to cast protest ballots, they reason, it would be with President Trump in the White House.
But interviews with dozens of Hispanic voters in Nevada and California, two key battleground states, showed a more complicated picture that is deeply alarming to Democratic Party officials. Away from campaign rallies and candidates, many voters said they felt disempowered rather than emboldened; they expressed feelings of cynicism, apathy and fear fueled by the highly fraught political moment. Others said that messaging about immigration policy alone is not enough to motivate them.
And some have simply lost faith that politicians will follow through on their promises once the elections are over.
"It's the same as in Mexico they promise people they're going to help, and they don't," said Cesar Gustamente, 28, over a plate of carne asada in east Las Vegas, when asked about why he might not vote in the tossup Senate race there.
Mr. Gustamente, who is Mexican-American, voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and has been upset by President Trump's language. But "there are times where you're just wasting your time on voting," he said.
An election-year intensity gap between whites and Hispanics is one of the biggest worries for the Democrats heading into the midterms. They would stand a far better chance of capturing many of the Republican-hld House districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, they say, if Hispanic adults registered and voted in greater numbers.
A recent NBC-Wall Street Journal national survey showed a spike in interest in the election among Hispanic voters, but part of the challenge for Democrats is the sharp divisions among those voters. Latinos are not a monolith, and their political decisions are also shaped by age, region, and the immigration histories of their families. Exit polls after the 2016 election found that nearly 30 percent of Latino voters supported Mr. Trump, though some surveys put that figure closer to 20 percent.
At the local level, Hispanic voters are even more willing to support Republicans they know, creating difficulties for Democrats in an election where some of the most imperiled G.O.P. incumbents are not be as vulnerable as they may seem on paper.
"To paint all Latinos with the same brush, as being Democrats and having progressive views on issues, even on immigration, is a little bit too simplistic," said William Frey of the Brookings Institution. "Organizers have to get into the nuances of various Latinos populations."
There is precedent for the Democrats to worry. While many political strategists believed Mr. Trump's anti-immigrant stance during the 2016 presidential election would propel historic numbers of Hispanic voters to turn out, the percentage of eligible Hispanics who cast ballots actually declined modestly from 2012, according to census data analyzed by Mr. Frey.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/21/us/trump-latinos-democrats-midterms.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
