Normal is no excess and no deficit. It's a range of estimates rather than an exact number. This particular chart uses an estimate near the top of the range in order to yield a conservative count of excess deaths. That's why most of the bars are below the line. It doesn't set any threshold for deficits, so there's no way to tell whether it's at or below the normal range.Booray said:Isn't normal by definition no excess deaths?Sam Lowry said:14% below the threshold at which they're considered excess, i.e. no excess deaths in the most recent time period. It may or may not mean they're below normal, as this chart isn't designed to track that.Booray said:
I could not tell from the article whether they were saying excess deaths for the most recent time period were down 14% of a normal time period (ie we were having "negative excess deaths") or were down 14% from what the CDC had predicted (ie still having excess deaths, just not as many).