This May Change The Numbers

1,176 Views | 4 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Oldbear83
Oldbear83
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Radio Free Asia reports that the actual death toll in Wuhan, Hubei province, is more likely 46 thousand than the reported 2.5 thousand.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html

Time picked the story immediately, while

https://time.com/5811222/wuhan-coronavirus-death-toll/

Newsweek picked the story on Sunday.

https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

The estimate is based on witness claims that funeral home incinerators have been working "round the clock" for nearly two weeks, at seven area funeral homes, which have ordered urns for the ashes in numbers far greater than the official counts.

Given that the virus is believed to have spread to humans around November 17,

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

and the mean incubation period is just over 5 days,

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175438.htm

simple math indicates that by the time the virus showed up outside China (January 13 in Thailand),
(an estimated 20 million people visit Wuhan each year, and Wuhan's airport offers direct flights to London, Paris, Dubai and most of Europe and Asia. The manufacturing companies in Wuhan deliver around the world, including high-tech products in demand at all the places where the virus is worst right now).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51202254

as many as five million people could have been directly exposed to the virus just in Wuhan, with the possibility of reaching every country on the planet within a month if no precautions were put in place. Keep in mind that the government of China did not officially acknowledge the new virus until December 31, forty-four days after the first likely human case of the virus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html

The good news, such as it is, is that this higher number makes better sense not only of the likely spread of the virus outside China, but also implies that the mortality rate of the virus may be lower than first thought. The bad news is that this information implies far more people have been exposed to the virus than first believed, and so even with prophylaxis measures in place more cases are sure to be confirmed, and some of those patients will die.


That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
TexasScientist
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No doubt they have understated their death toll.
Baylor3216
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TexasScientist said:

No doubt they have understated their death toll.


Is this Latin for the Chinese have lied???
Oldbear83
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- bump -
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Johnny Bear
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TexasScientist said:

No doubt they have understated their death toll.

Well, duh..........
Oldbear83
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Johnny Bear said:

TexasScientist said:

No doubt they have understated their death toll.

Well, duh..........
The significance is how the new numbers alters the contagion and mortality numbers for the rest of the world. And, of course, the point that if China just gave up to restart its economy, then a lot of infected people are going to find their way out of China and start a new wave of contagion.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
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