New York Covid19 Cases - Data Analysis

971 Views | 10 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by twd74
midgett
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New York has consistently had at least 40% of the total known US cases and deaths.

Common reasons are the dense population and the number of people traveling in and through NY from Europe before restrictions were implemented. No doubt those are valid. Still, it is a very high %.

New Jersey is next door with about half the population and has about 10% of the total cases and 7% of the deaths. One could possibly expect those figures to be almost twice as high.

LA, SF & Seattle are major ports of entry from Asia, the alleged virus source. Their populations aren't as dense as New York but their populations are substantial. California has about 5% of the cases and deaths (and twice the population of NY).

One explanation is that NY has done more testing thus discovering more cases. But the deaths are similar percentages as cases for both states.

Are there lots of deaths in other states which aren't being reported due to perceived other causes?

Is NY reporting deaths for all people passing WITH the virus rather than FROM the virus?

I don't know the answer and perhaps no one here knows either. I imagine there are some points of view I haven't considered which would shed more light on NY's "problem".

It'd be nice for this discussion not to be all about political potshots and discussion of the data.

Would love to hear your input. (Jinx2, keep it to less than one million words so I'll be more inclined to read it.)

Flaming Moderate
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Not sure if one will ever get real, fully accurate data. However, I am not sure anyone technically dies from Wuhan but like other viral deaths - from a related condition exacerbated by it.

Like virtually everyone else, NYC did not take the virus seriously until it was too late. Officials were more worried about being woke than being safe, and they're paying the price. However, that is not totally fair - it is a large, dense city and a huge international and domestic airline hub and port.

I certainly never dreamed this would be such a big deal. I mean we had 60M cases of H1N1 and did not do anything for months, so there really is not a precedent for this.
contrario
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The virus has been in the US since November. Millions of Americans have likely been infected and many have already recovered. Thousands have probably died from the effects of the virus before COVID-19 tests were done and it was assumed they died from the flu or other medical conditions they had. Hypothetically, if we would have started testing in November, we would have found thousands of COVID-19 cases. The virus ran rampant and unchecked for at least 2 months and society continued on like normal. It was only when people started freaking out about a virus that could possibly kill people that were mostly on their death beds already that the depression started.
nein51
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I was on a cruise in January I had literally never heard of it until then (the last day of it actually). I question your November timeline.
contrario
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nein51 said:

I was on a cruise in January I had literally never heard of it until then (the last day of it actually). I question your November timeline.
It isn't my November timeline, that's what the CDC and other sources are saying. Just because you didn't hear about it, it doesn't mean it wasn't spreading. And that's exactly my point. Do you think the virus started in January when China finally admitted to it?
midgett
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Another thought is NY is close to peaking while other states are just moving up the curve. I can see that as a partial explanation. It doesn't seem to fully explain the lower number of west coast cases/deaths.
Flaming Moderate
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How many people die every day in NYC?

How many have died of Wuhan virus?
4th and Inches
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contrario said:

nein51 said:

I was on a cruise in January I had literally never heard of it until then (the last day of it actually). I question your November timeline.
It isn't my November timeline, that's what the CDC and other sources are saying. Just because you didn't hear about it, it doesn't mean it wasn't spreading. And that's exactly my point. Do you think the virus started in January when China finally admitted to it?
reports are coming out that the crematoriums in Wuhan were getting 3000-5000 urns a day delivered and cremators were brought in from all over china to run the fires 24 hrs a day... shouldnt be needed if they only had 3500 deaths
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ATL Bear
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I've said multiple time that public transportation use in that clustered area was likely a big spreader of the virus. If there's truth to how long the virus survives outside the body, I can't imagine the Petri dish subways, buses, and even busy taxis would be. I worry even today about how sick people and "essential" workers are getting to and fro and how much mixing is still going on.
Flaming Moderate
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ATL Bear said:

I've said multiple time that public transportation use in that clustered area was likely a big spreader of the virus. If there's truth to how long the virus survives outside the body, I can't imagine the Petri dish subways, buses, and even busy taxis would be. I worry even today about how sick people and "essential" workers are getting to and fro and how much mixing is still going on.
I posted the same thing earlier this week. I cannot wrap my head around places not closing public transportation. I understand other's good arguments, but seems like the framework has been fight the virus at all costs. Maybe that's not right, but seems like that's been the message. Not only does public transportations spread it, but it spreads it across the region vs. at least localizing the outbreak. Makes no sense.
Oldbear83
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nein51 said:

I was on a cruise in January I had literally never heard of it until then (the last day of it actually). I question your November timeline.
Best information I have read is that the first case in Wuhan was November 17

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report

Note that is from China's government records.

This implies that the virus could have spread to the US within a month, but it's unknown. Certainly the PRC was dishonest in waiting until December 31 to make even its first report to the WHO.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
twd74
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midgett said:

New York has consistently had at least 40% of the total known US cases and deaths.

Common reasons are the dense population and the number of people traveling in and through NY from Europe before restrictions were implemented. No doubt those are valid. Still, it is a very high %.

New Jersey is next door with about half the population and has about 10% of the total cases and 7% of the deaths. One could possibly expect those figures to be almost twice as high.

LA, SF & Seattle are major ports of entry from Asia, the alleged virus source. Their populations aren't as dense as New York but their populations are substantial. California has about 5% of the cases and deaths (and twice the population of NY).

One explanation is that NY has done more testing thus discovering more cases. But the deaths are similar percentages as cases for both states.

Are there lots of deaths in other states which aren't being reported due to perceived other causes?

Is NY reporting deaths for all people passing WITH the virus rather than FROM the virus?

I don't know the answer and perhaps no one here knows either. I imagine there are some points of view I haven't considered which would shed more light on NY's "problem".

It'd be nice for this discussion not to be all about political potshots and discussion of the data.

Would love to hear your input. (Jinx2, keep it to less than one million words so I'll be more inclined to read it.)


I can confirm New Jersey has increased its testing, which explains high numbers of confirmed cases. As of today we are just under 19k confirmed and at or about 290 deaths. I doubt there is much difference in states using the term with or from the virus. Covid 19 attacks the respiratory system, people young or old who experience a serious reaction (about 20%) will likely suffer some amount of lung damage. Just under 50% of the deaths in NJ are people 80 years or above, about 47% of deaths have some underlying condition (ie., COPD, High Blood Pressure, anything that has affected immune system or impairs the ability to fight off a respiratory infection). A very high percentage of those seriously affected will need assistance in breathing.

Disease is killing young and old-- in our area, a 30 year old High School Baseball Coach, a 33 year old Firefight have died in the last 24 hours.

Stay well, folks...
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