Professor study give Trump a 91% chance of re-elections

1,997 Views | 47 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by RD2WINAGNBEAR86
Stranger
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls
riflebear
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Without Covid - yes. Now - I'm not even optimistic it's a 50% chance but a lot can change in 4 months.

I wonder how long Biden will try to back his way into the President and hide out?
blackie
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You lost me with the link being Fox News.
Whiskey Pete
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blackie said:

You lost me with the link being Fox News.
Is this better?

https://www.newsweek.com/professor-who-accurately-predicted-25-out-27-elections-predicts-trump-2020-win-1516609

We wouldn't want you to be triggered because the story appeared on Fox News too
Stranger
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blackie said:

You lost me with the link being Fox News.

At least Fox carried the story. The censorship exists when CNN, MSNBC, NYT and Washington Post won't even publish something like this. I read about this same professor in 2016. Nobody believed him then.
riflebear
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blackie said:

You lost me with the link being Fox News.
W/ all due respect that's the dumbest argument ever these days that has been debunked.

Liberal news can lie spread conspiracy theories and be corrupt w very little accountability. They could write 100s of articles and never have to retract or maybe put spin on something they misreported but the damage was already done.

Fox can do 1000 stories correct and the one they got wrong the Democrats & Media will do an all out war on Fox saying they are fake news and lie etc etc.

You believe literally 1000s of articles for 3 years about Russia/Mueller etc that were all proven false yet you still believe the conspiracy theories coming out of those organizations. Then Fox shows that they were correct all along w/ real investigative reporting and not colluding to spread misinformation yet you don't believe them?

I would advise to read both Fox & CNN/MSNBC and compare notes
Canada2017
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Unless a vaccine is being distributed by October 7th .

The United States will put a 78 year old dementia sufferer in ( nominal ) charge of 5000 nuclear weapons .
SIC EM 94
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blackie said:

You lost me with the link being Fox News.

So pathetic
blackie
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riflebear said:

blackie said:

You lost me with the link being Fox News.
W/ all due respect that's the dumbest argument ever these days that has been debunked.

Liberal news can lie spread conspiracy theories and be corrupt w very little accountability. They could write 100s of articles and never have to retract or maybe put spin on something they misreported but the damage was already done.

Fox can do 1000 stories correct and the one they got wrong the Democrats & Media will do an all out war on Fox saying they are fake news and lie etc etc.

You believe literally 1000s of articles for 3 years about Russia/Mueller etc that were all proven false yet you still believe the conspiracy theories coming out of those organizations. Then Fox shows that they were correct all along w/ real investigative reporting and not colluding to spread misinformation yet you don't believe them?

I would advise to read both Fox & CNN/MSNBC and compare notes
With all due respect am I to believe the Hannity and Limbaugh types you have on Fox any more so than it coming from Maddow on MSNBC and whoever is on CNN (I don't even know what channel that is on). The only reason I know where MSNBC is found is because I watch a lot of CNBC which is next to it. I would want to see collaborated verification from several unrelated sources before passing along anything. And as far as conspiracy theories, I don't think any outlet can outdo this forum. And anyone can find someone who has a poll that predicts anything they want. Does that make it even remotely legitimate? Most here dismiss the polls that show Trump in deep trouble.

I might add that the "truth" is too often in the eye of the beholder depending on what you want to hear and the amount of credibility you give to the news outlet that agrees with you versus the ones that don't. They are all biased.

And comparing the three networks you mentioned, why should I believe any of them without independent verification? If something is true, it will eventually be picked up by just more than one or two sources. Despite the hysteria concerning the media on this board, the sources on the right are far from model journalism.

I guess my basic starting point for these articles you and others apparently have the time of the world to find and post is that it is a waste of my time reading them. I already know the slant to be found because of the poster and would be floored by any posting an article that actually goes against their agenda or puts their leadership in a bad light even when it is blatantly obvious to anyone independent viewer that it is indeed fact.

Username checks out
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Wow, we have such amazing insights from this study as

Quote:


"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."


Trump ran unopposed and Biden ran in a crowded field. How could those possibly imply general election results? Is he giving credit to Trump for not screwing up so had he got primaried?

Quote:

"Where I would expect the pandemic to have an affect is on the approval rating of the president, and I don't see any dent in Trump's approval rating," he said. "Unless his approval rating collapses, I don't think this will have much bearing on my forecast.



Um, not true. His approval rating has tanked since he called the Rona a Democrat hoax and - surprise! - it wasn't. See e.g.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Quote:


Norpoth said if Trump is able to refrain from commenting or tweeting about political opponents and instead focus on the continued economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, he stands a good chance of winning a second term.


Hahahahahahahaha.

Wait, hahahahahahahahahaha

Quote:


"He had some strong points that gave him that big win in the primaries, and I think that he has to take advantage of that," he said. "I think that anything that distracts from that will not be good for him."


Yeah, I'm starting to think this article was auto-generated by a computer. Trump's amazing "strong points" are surely the reason he won 100-0 in an unopposed primary election.
Oldbear83
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Username is being his usual petulant, bitter self.

In the interest of a more complete picture, I will note that in addition to Dr. Norpoth's primary model, there are three prominent models with good track records:

Dr. Allan Lichtman has a 13 "Key" model which is a bit subjective but at least observes a range of factors in Presidential elections. His model currently says Biden will win, but as recently as December 2019 he said Trump was a lock to win unless he was impeached.

Dr. Ray Fair has a famous model based on economic factors, especially GDP growth. Dr. Fair's model also currently projects a Biden win, but as recently as February this year favored Trump, and Dr. Fair has said the unusual conditions for this election may make it harder to call in advance.

The last model is Moody's Analytics, which also uses economics for its projections but focuses on unemployment, consumer confidence, and the stock market. What sets Moody's apart is that it uses state-level economic data to project state results, the only model which makes state-specific predictions. Moody's says Trump will win, although, like Fair, Moody's says the weird economic conditions may create an unusual outcome.

All of the four would have predicted most, but not all, of the Presidential elections since 1912 using the data available. And two of the four are likely to be wrong this year, unless there are changes in the final predictions released before the actual election.
That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Johnny Bear
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riflebear said:

Without Covid - yes. Now - I'm not even optimistic it's a 50% chance but a lot can change in 4 months.

I wonder how long Biden will try to back his way into the President and hide out?
Yes, Covid has had a negative impact on Trump, but in the end I don't think it will be as drastic as you appear to think it will be, especially if the "V shaped" economic recovery that is under way continues up until election day.

Your question about Biden is a good one. I seriously don't see how even a 100% MSM backed candidate can win a POTUS election based on staying out of sight to the fullest extent possible and otherwise just depending on mass hatred/disapproval of the opponent for your victory. In other words, I don't see how you win a POTUS election without giving voters positive reasons to vote FOR you as opposed to voting solely against the other candidate. And seriously, what reasons are there to vote FOR Biden beyond basic Trump hatred?
Friscobear
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Trump never called the virus a hoax. How many times do we have to go over this? You're smarter than this, Username.
Friscobear
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My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
cinque
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Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
You'd better hope it doesn't come down to the debates.
Mothra
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cinque said:

Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
You'd better hope it doesn't come down to the debates.
Chuckle.

Yes, Biden is great with difficult questions in front of a camera.
cinque
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Has the professor ever seen these commercials?

wuzzybear
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I am here to declare victory for Donald J Trump. Of all places or countries on the map this is the ONE country where voters are not going to be confused. All Biden is doing is digging a deeper grave for himself. You can't be president WITHOUT debates and if he does debate, he will fall so flat on his face. He knows it, the Dems know it, Jill knows it, and you all know it.

We are talking about the difference between a man who cares for this country and a man who doesn't know what country he is in. The only way Biden wins this is if there is so much fraud and brainwashing and/or the election is rigged in a way that I cannot foresee. So the question boils down to what states will Trump lose. They are:

Hawaii
California
Oregon
Washington
Vermont
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
New Jersey
Virginia
Delaware
New Jersey
...and either Minnesota or Connecticut

Middle America is not stupid. The Dems have been hijacked so far left they will disappear from radar by Nov 3. I GUARANTEE YOU TRUMP, WHILE NOT REFINED IN A WEIRD SORT OF PRESIDENTIAL WAY, WILL NOT LET THIS SLIP AWAY. So given your choice between the Constitution AS IT IS, or throwing it in file 13, who will you support? There has never been an election where you either a constitutional conservative or liberal, or you are a freak show who would rather see America become Mexico, Venezuela, China, or Russia. it's actually very very simple.

And to make it personal Biden said a couple days ago that he wants to get ride stakeholder interest in the stock market. TRANSLATION: The government will own it all! Really? I make my living from trading the market and so do about 30million other Americans. Ain't no way, ain't no how Trump loses to that philosophy. True, some of you will have to bite the bullet to pull the lever for Trump but in the end you will. The next 3 mos will prove me right...and if you still vote for Biden you were never an American to begin with.

cms186
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dont incumbent presidents usually do better in these primaries?
I'm the English Guy
Flaming Moderate
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Friscobear said:

Trump never called the virus a hoax. How many times do we have to go over this? You're smarter than this, Username.
Chuckle.

The fix is in ... the Swamp has thrown the entire kitchen (much less the kitchen sink - that's an idiom CB; I will explain it to you later via Zoom) at Trump ... they DNC will not leave ballots unstuffed this year - they learned the hard way in 2016.
cinque
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And don't incumbents who win re-election have a higher job approval rating than 38%?
wuzzybear
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...and furthermore, Don Lemon says Jesus Christ was not a perfect person. THAT JUST SEALED 100% OF THE EVANGELICAL VOTE. According to him he was crucified for his own sins and not the world's. Lemon just handed any evangelical riding the fence their decision.

But you can vote Dem if you want:
killing of the innocent unborn
total restriction of your personal freedom
a federalized police force
burn the country to the ground
forsake Israel in favor of the Palestinians
open borders
the green new deal
...or any variation thereof
wuzzybear
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Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
Is this sarcasm???
cinque
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wuzzybear said:

Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
Is this sarcasm???
What will Trump say when Biden asks where his promised low cost universal health care plan is?
Friscobear
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wuzzybear said:

Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
Is this sarcasm???

No. Either side thinking their candidate is a lock to win is delusional at this point.
cinque
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Trump has a record to defend to people who are not in his base. This won't be fun for him. He does poorly when he can't lie and obfuscate.
wuzzybear
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Nothing. He won't have to. Biden won't be able to think that fast. Do you even realize how brain dead Biden is. The only way he will get around to it is if someone whispers in his ear from a remote audio booth.

Again, you are an ignorant moronic short-sighted imp! You won't have to worry about any healthcare plan if Biden is elected. It will all flow through Washington. I'm really trying to get you to understand that this election is about MUCH BIGGER issues than health care, but so far you can't do it. Tell me, what does health care even matter to anyone if your living under a changing society which espouses Saul Alinsky tactics leading to Marxist rule. Have you ever even watched a documentary on Mao or Stalin?

Seriously dude, you have issues.
wuzzybear
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cinque said:

Trump has a record defend to people who are not in his base. This won't be fun for him. He does poorly when he can't lie and obfuscate.
Again, you are a fool. You just cannot see the bigger picture. How dumb can you be?
wuzzybear
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Friscobear said:

wuzzybear said:

Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
Is this sarcasm???

No. Either side thinking their candidate is a lock to win is delusional at this point.
Maybe, but this is Trumps to lose bc Biden sure as hell can't win it in his condition...
cinque
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wuzzybear said:

cinque said:

Trump has a record defend to people who are not in his base. This won't be fun for him. He does poorly when he can't lie and obfuscate.
Again, you are a fool. You just cannot see the bigger picture. How dumb can you be?
Trump will be struck dumb when pressed to explain why he didn't repeal and replace OCare as promised.
Flaming Moderate
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cinque said:

Trump has a record to defend to people who are not in his base. This won't be fun for him. He does poorly when he can't lie and obfuscate.
I know, right Uncle Tom? Who does not like:
1. Prison reform that helps minorities
2. Record low black unemployment
3. Record high job growth
4. Re-negotiating bad trade deals that help unions

Horrible record. Versus a senile ra(c/p)ist that has been in the federal government for 40 years and has hardly a record to go on other than anti-integration. Chuckle. You funny Uncle Tombot.
Oldbear83
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cms186 said:

dont incumbent presidents usually do better in these primaries?
It varies, hence Norpoth's projection basis.

From what I have read, and not the claims by the model's authors themselves. here are their creation dates and results, both from actual predictions and applied to past elections:


Moody's Analytics: Created in 1980, was 9-1 since then (got the 2016 election wrong), and the full model is 12-1 since 1968 (Consumer Confidence was first measured quantitatively in 1967) and the partial model from 1912 to 1964 is 17-2 for a record of 29-3 for the full 1912-2016 time frame;

Lichtman: Created in 1984, was 8-1 since then (Lichtman claims 9-0 but I could not find his 1992 prediction and his keys applied to known conditions would have predicted Bush's re-election), and his model is 26-6 since 1912 (his model does not function prior to 1912);

Norpoth: Created in 2008, was 5-1 since then (wrong in 2016 where he predicted Trump would have a greater share of the aggregate Popular Vote), and his model is 30-2 since 1912

Fair: Created in 1976, was 7-2-1 since then (got 1976 and 1992 wrong, his model did not make a call for 1980), and his model is 28-3-1 since 1912 (to use the same election range as Lichtman).



That which does not kill me, will try again and get nastier
Gold Tron
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cinque said:

wuzzybear said:

Friscobear said:

My opinion is that this is really going to come down to the debates. Which old man can keep it together and come out looking better.
Is this sarcasm???
What will Trump say when Biden asks where his promised low cost universal health care plan is?

Healthcare isn't a right. I provide it. You want it, pay for insurance or pay your bill.
My pronouns are Deez/Dem.
Username checks out
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wuzzybear said:

...and furthermore, Don Lemon says Jesus Christ was not a perfect person. THAT JUST SEALED 100% OF THE EVANGELICAL VOTE. According to him he was crucified for his own sins and not the world's. Lemon just handed any evangelical riding the fence their decision.

But you can vote Dem if you want:
killing of the innocent unborn
total restriction of your personal freedom
a federalized police force
burn the country to the ground
forsake Israel in favor of the Palestinians
open borders
the green new deal
...or any variation thereof


My jesus open carriers an AK 47, gives rich people a tax break, and grabs women by the *****. Suffice to say I've got a real hard on for the Republicans this go around.
wuzzybear
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Username checks out said:

wuzzybear said:

...and furthermore, Don Lemon says Jesus Christ was not a perfect person. THAT JUST SEALED 100% OF THE EVANGELICAL VOTE. According to him he was crucified for his own sins and not the world's. Lemon just handed any evangelical riding the fence their decision.

But you can vote Dem if you want:
killing of the innocent unborn
total restriction of your personal freedom
a federalized police force
burn the country to the ground
forsake Israel in favor of the Palestinians
open borders
the green new deal
...or any variation thereof


My jesus open carriers an AK 47, gives rich people a tax break, and grabs women by the *****. Suffice to say I've got a real hard on for the Republicans this go around.
Nobody cares about your "hard on" except for some guy in a Greyhound bus terminal waiting for you downtown.
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