Florda_mike said:
https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/23/5-more-ways-joe-biden-magically-outperformed-election-norms/
The first one ...... How did Joe Biden get 15,000,000 more votes than Obama in 2012?
How did he win after losing all bellwether counties?
I think Shurk presents his arguments pretty well. My comments:
1. 80 Million Votes. To fully evaluate an election, I think it fair to look at both sides of the equation. Trump received 74 million votes --11 million+ his 2016 total. Trump's numbers are more surprising in the context of recent election History. If you look at the 8 elections prior to this one, you will see some patterns emerging:
In 1992, the three major candidates drew roughly 104mm voters to the polls (significant 3rd. party vote that year).
Numbers declined in the next election to 86mm, which is consistent with a pattern of declining numbers in elections where the incumbent is seeking a second term. This pattern holds for Clinton and Obama (5mm fewer votes in 2012 than 2008), and is totally shattered this year, when Trump gains 11mm in his failed reelect.
Total vote numbers rose to 129mm in 2008, or more than 25% in 16 years. Percentage increase in total votes from 2008 to 2020, roughly 17%.
2. Winning Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties-- nothing is forever in politics. Bellweather counties and states may show a consistent pattern until--one day--they don't. The fact is, were are seeing a significant rate of change in a lot of markets that is embarassing a lot of pollsters. Ohio was a long term Republican State, became a swing state after WW2, and is pretty much a red state now. For most of this election, no one was seriously considering Ohio as viable (in spite of some late polls).
3.Biden Trailed Clinton Except in a Select Few Cities I did a quick check of this a week ago, and do not agree with this. Looking at the Major City Vote by County, Biden had a higher vote tally than Clinton in all of the major cities I checked except one--NYC. where the vote reported as of last week was way down. Not sure what that is about, but also NY state reporting was really slow--slower than Alaska--and the numbers may also reflect the effect of the pandemic on the city.
4.Biden Won Despite Democrat Losses Everywhere Else -- The fact Biden won and lower Democrats did not only tells us that voters are splitting the ticket, which is a long held American Custom. Nixon won an Historic landslide over McGovern in 72, but failed to take the House or the Senate. Americans like divided government.
5. . Biden Overcame Trump's Commanding Primary Vote. If total primary vote numbers were a big deal, Hillary had more of them than any candidate in History. Apples and Oranges comparison.