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Baylor Football

Snapshot of the 2021 Bowl Season for the Big 12 Conference

December 14, 2021
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In this article we are going to take a quick look at the numbers behind each matchup for both the current and future Big 12.    We’ll go in current Big 12 selection order and then add the four newbies at the end.

Each game will have a yardage per drive and field position comparison.  You will see each team’s yards per drive (team colored bars) and opponent’s yards per drive (gray colored bars) in other games.  For P5 teams this will be for P5 games but for the non-P5 teams it’s all other games but I typically will follow it up with a look at what they average against their best competition on either side of the ball. 

The background is red, yellow, or green to signify if that yardage per drive is bad, average, or good for an offense.   The semi-transparent bars are used to signify the average per-drive advantage one team has in starting field position.   So if a team averages starting 10 yards closer it shows up as an added ten yards per drive stacked on top off the offensive bar.   For teams with a negative field position comparison- it gets stacked on the defensive bar.

I’ll also mix in a couple other charts where I see something noteworthy.


Sugar Bowl (Baylor -1.5)

I will have a full-fledged stats preview on this matchup later but here’s a quick snapshot.

The Big 12 champion Baylor Bears draw the Ole Miss Rebels.   These two fit the brand of the opposite conference in terms of style of play.   Ole Miss is the high tempo, explosive offense, struggling defense, and spread team winning shootouts while Baylor is a run-first team that will slow the game down and win with a physical and versatile defense.

Below we see that both offenses outperform what other P5’s do to their schedule and each has the advantage in starting field position.   You’d expect an advantage for each given the per-drive production and the fact that both force around 6% more turnover drives than they give up.

Where things split on this simple comparison in defensively.   Baylor has held P5’s to under 34 yards per drive while Ole Miss has given up almost 40 to offenses that averaged less coming in than the Baylor foes.

One interesting detail is that Ole Miss is 2nd in how frequently they go for it on 4th down and Baylor is 10th.   Both convert over 60% of these fourth down plays.   Each team is a tough one to get off the field when they have the ball.  Once you get them to third down, some teams are easy to get off the field.   This game doesn’t feature any of those teams as getting either to third down is just half the battle.   Here’s a chart showing how well the two teams convert those opportunities on either third or fourth down and stop teams from doing so.    In other words, if a team gets to third down, will it convert on either third or fourth down? 

Needless to say both teams are aroung 51% of their third down opportunites being converted on the next two downs.   So over half the time third down is just a stepping stone to a new series.  Defensively however we do see Baylor hold an edge of 43% to 52%.   Much of this comes from the edge in third down conversions where Baylor holds P5 teams to 36% and Ole Miss holds them to 41%.


Fiesta Bowl (ND -2.5)

Oklahoma State and Notre Dame is the matchup in the Fiesta where OSU gets the top ranked team outside the playoff.   Notre Dame has been great against the last six opponents winning 40-13 on average but admittedly when they have a combined record of 26-46 it leaves room for skepticism that the improvement is due to dominance and not due to a front loaded schedule.

OSU’s offense typically generates a little less than what opponents give up to other P5’s but holds a solid field position edge on average.   Defensively the Pokes are elite and have taken a lot of good offenses and shut them down to alarming degrees.   Notre Dame’s offense has been slightly better than other P5’s against their schedule, also holds a field position edge, and their defense has been really good.

That said when I isolate each team against the best and worst S&P+ offenses or defenses on their schedule OSU keeps a similar trend to what we see above and ND clearly does not.   When I split OSU by their six FBS games against their best & worst S&P+ offenses and defenses the totals rise and fall with their competition but the offense each time hovers around 91% of what opponents give up to others and their defense hovers around 60%.   They have been consistent regardless of competition for the most part.

Notre Dame fluctuates wildly by comparison.  Notre Dame’s offense was held to less than 28 yards per drive by the top 6 defenses they faced (93%) and then beat up on the bottom 6 with 46 yards per drive, 13% more than they usually give up.   Defensively we see similar- they gave up basically what the top 5 healthy offenses they faced averaged against good competition.  (I didn’t factor in UVA- playing a struggling freshman backup QB in an Air Raid when they had an elite on in every other game is an outlier at best)   When you look at how they did against the bottom 6?   They held them to 63%.

So to say ND can be Jekyll and Hyde is accurate.   I’d expect OSU to hold them down but how well the OSU offense matches up to ND’s defense will be where I expect this one to be won or lost.


Alamo Bowl (OU -4.5)

As an OU buddy of mine says, this one might as well be called the “Orphan Bowl”.   OU without Riley, Oregon without Cristobal.   This one is tough to get a handle on with new coaches, numerous opt outs, and multiple transfers going on.    Statistically both teams had elite offenses and struggling defenses however late in the year OU got better on defense and Oregon... didn’t.   That said with so much turnover going on... who knows who shows up for this one?


Cheez-It Bowl (ISU -1.5)

Two preseason top 8 teams certainly had hopes of meeting for a playoff game in Miami instead of a Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando.   That said this matchup could be a good contest.   Both teams have outstanding defenses in what should be a very physical game.  Iowa State has the more productive offense by far but Clemson typically wins field position and should have the more athletic roster overall.

In a defensive battle it could come down to how well teams cash in on scoring opportunities.   Clemson struggles to cash in but is outstanding at preventing foes from cashing in allowing only 3.35 points per red zone trip to Power 5 teams.   That said iSU does a solid job defending the red zone and has done well scoring themselves once they get there.

Another storyline for this one is the mass number of transfers leaving Ames like starting Safeties Isheem Young and Kym-Mani King.   Clemson isn’t what they were the last 6 years but they are good and a disjointed effort from the Clones won’t be enough to take this one.   They have to be ready for a solid opponent.


Texas Bowl (KSU -1)

This game is an interesting matchup.   Both teams have a solid defense but the key question for me is KSU’s Skylar Thompson.   Arguably no single player in the Big 12 this year means more to his team than him.   With him they have a statistically elite per-drive offense and without him they have a steep dropoff.   LSU’s offense has been up and down this fall but has also faced some really solid defenses.   KSU has typically held a field position advantage through the year.

Below we see an area that KSU has excelled at and how LSU matches up to it.   KSU has been outstanding at generating big plays as a percentage of plays.   They don’t get a ton of attention for it due to very low drive counts and a slow tempo but they are able to get big plays at a high percentage and do a good job stopping teams from doing so.   LSU on the other hand has had this area of the game break against them to a decisive degree.

One statistic that shocked me when I was looking at LSU was that their run game isn’t what we’ve expected from them for the past 20 years or so.  Below the combined stacked bars vertically equal LSU’s yardage per carry for tailbacks.   The white bars are what a small amount of “outlier runs” of around 16-20 yards or more contribute to its tailback yards per carry average.   The yellow colored bars are what the remaining majority carries equate to per-carry.  The background gives a barometer in what is good for an offense with red (bad), yellow (average), or green (good) colors giving context.

What we see is that largely apart from humilating Florida they haven’t been productive against most of the P5 defenses they faced.   So much so that it isn’t unreasonable to expect KSU to hold them similarly given how KSU has performed against P5’s. (Purple bar)

This game is winnable for KSU and a healthy Skylar Thompson would go a long way towards that.


Liberty Bowl (MSU -8.5)

You just know Mike Leach has been waiting for this right?   After his very difficult departure from Lubbock 12 years ago he gets to face off with his old school.

Both teams have high flying Air Raid style offenses but MSU’s defense has vastly outperformed Tech this year.   

I expect the MSU defensive advantage and experience at QB to carry the day.  That said Tech has played better defensively since after the TCU game and their style of play defensively may match up better against a classic Air Raid than it would against a more run and RPO oriented spread.  Also the most similar team to how MSU schemes their defense that Donovan Smith played was Iowa State who he dropped 44 yards per drive and 3.4 points per drive on. 


Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Minn -3.5)

This one is a tough draw for WVU.  The Mountaineers have a solid defense and an offense that generates slightly less than what their opponents typically give up and lose the field position battle usually.   They draw a Minnesota team that has favorable splits compared to their schedule on both sides of the ball and wins field position.   On paper this doesn’t make for an even matchup.

However for a spread team the Gophers generate surprisingly few plays of over 20 yards.   Other than giving Wisconsin, Colorado, and Maryland a few it’s been pretty limited.   What this means is that WVU’s disruptive defense that will twist and stunt will have chances to make negative plays happen.

Due to this there’s an area where WVU might be able to equalize things- the Red Zone.

Both teams are winning points per trip.   However WVU is dominating it and it played a huge role in wins against Virginia Tech (5 vs 1.75), Iowa State (6.2 vs 3.3), and Kansas. (4.8 vs 2.83)    Minnesota appears to be the stronger team but if I had to look at one area where this game might turn in favor of the Mountaineers it would be here.   In a game where I don’t expect either to hit  ton of big plays and given how well the Gophers protect the ball it seems like the logical point where something might happen if it’s going to.


Newcomers

 

Cotton Bowl (Alabama -13.5)

Cincinnati gets Alabama in a tough matchup in Dallas.   Cincy has been solid on both sides of the ball and wins field position usually.   That said when you isolate their games with the best competition on either side of the ball the Bearcat defense remains outstanding while the offense gets to being a little over what you’d expect.

On the other side of the matchup Alabama has been dominant against P5 teams and usually wins field position.   Based on how Cincy responded against better defenses the path for Cincinnati to win likely depends on their defense doing what LSU and Auburn did to keep Bama’s offense down.   Tall order as some good defenses at UGA, A&M, and Miss State couldn’t do it.

Cincinnati belongs in the playoff but has a tall order ahead of it.


Gasparilla Bowl (UF -6.5)

This is an interesting matchup for several reasons.   UCF limps in with an 8-4 record and UF limps in with 6-6.   UF has lost it’s coach and might not be up for this game as well.

Below we see that UCF’s offense struggled after losing Dillon Gabriel and in particular against the best half of the defenses they faced from then on.   Their defense was actually pretty decent and was the stronger unit after losing Gabriel if we are juding it by yards per drive relative to schedule.

Florida however has a good offense and average defense but after shredding Bama and Tennessee for over 50 yards per drive and 55% or more scoring drives they only averaged 29.9 the rest of the was against P5’s and their defense had an ugly game against FCS Samford.    Florida is a vulnerable team but does UCF have the offense this year to make them pay for it?


Independence Bowl (BYU -7)

One team with zero concerns on offense is BYU.   The Cougs have shredded almost every defense they played an dominated the Pac 12 and UVA.   The problems for BYU are on defense where they are sound but struggle in pass rush and single coverage.   Due to this they try to bend but don’t break but with injuries and a lot lost to graduation since last fall it doesn’t always work great.   They likely hoped for a better bowl but contracts are fickle as an independent and BYU ended up in Shreveport facing a solid UAB team.

UAB is a solid team with decent splits for both offense and defense but the offense disappeared against the better defenses it faced and the defense was still giving up less than opponents averaged but gave up a lot of yardage.

I expect BYU to pull away in the second half against a decent team.


Birmingham Bowl (Auburn -3)

Houston is very off-brand this year for a Dana Holgorsen team- the defense is better than the offense.   They draw a matchup against an Auburn team with a decent defense that was amazing against Bama but had rough outings in games against MSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and A&M.   The offense was jekyll and hyde and since Nix has been out of the lineup they had a good day against South Carolina with only 53% completions and a bad day offensively against Bama in a game the Tigers should have won.  

Given how Texas Tech’s defense shredded UH’s line for a relatively high percentage of TFL’s and sacks I would expect Auburn to take this but the UH defense could make things interesting paired with several very explosive skill players outside for the UH offense.  Maybe UH has improved up front since week one but they’ll need to be much better to have a big offensive day against the Tigers.


Final Thoughts

This slate of matchups is a tough draw.   The full list is projected to go 5-6 by Vegas.   You have the #1, #5, #8, and #19 ranked teams in the CFP rankings all lined up on the other side.   This is a slate that can potentially generate some respect for individual programs in the league.  At the top you have a chance to win half of the New Year’s six games and also face two teams that spent a good portion of the season in the top ten.    Then you have matchups against two in the preseason top 16 along with Miss State & Auburn teams that were in and out of the rankings.   Win the right ones and it will get attention. 

Discussion from...

Snapshot of the 2021 Bowl Season for the Big 12 Conference

6,501 Views | 3 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by historian
MrGolfguy
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Impressive stuff S11
Well I ain't no greenhorn!!
S11
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Staff
John Kurtz had me on his show to discuss this. He split up the talk into 2-3 videos and some of the bowls are covered here.

historian
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I tend to like Kurtz's stuff. He's pretty good.
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