Baylor Football

Six months out: Predicting Baylor's 2019 season

February 13, 2019

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Before you continue, make sure to take a look back at my predictions for Baylor’s 2018 season around this time a year ago. A seven-win season was the call, but with the belief that win seven would come before the bowl game. The Bears fell slightly short with the loss that stood out the most being a 40-27 decision to Duke in Waco, a game I predicted the Bears to would win 24-20.

Matthew McBrayer
Baylor has won it’s last three bowl games. 

The good news is that the total was right... even if it came after the bowl game. The Bears made their eighth bowl appearance in the last nine seasons and with the victory over Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl they improved their postseason record to 5-3 in that stretch, including notching their third-straight bowl victory. 

Baylor will return a good portion of the depth chart and key contributors from both side of the ball and will have a good portion of contributing upperclassmen on the roster, but the bulk of the team will still be relatively young as nine of 13 juniors never received a redshirt. 

Offensively, Baylor will be highlighted by the return of quarterback Charlie Brewer, a three-headed attack at running back with John Lovett, JaMycal Hasty and Trestan Ebner, and key receiving targets Denzel Mims and Chris Platt. Platt will be a sixth-year senior who was recently awarded an additional year of eligility

The most experienced group on the defensive side of the ball comes at the linebacker position as five seniors and a junior will take the a large porition of the snaps including projected senior starters Jordan Williams, Clay Johnston and Blake Lynch.

DL James Lynch is one of Baylor’s key returning starters. 

James Lynch and Bravvion Roy highlight the returning group on the defensive line while cornerbacks Grayland Arnold, Jameson Houston, Raleigh Texada and Kalon Barnes have each given significant contributions. Chris Miller, a senior, is Baylor’s most experienced player at the safety position. 

How will Matt Rhule’s third season in Waco unfold? As you know, it’s way too early to really make any specific judgement on the team. But with spring ball still in front of us, let’s get to this six-month-out prediction.


Saturday, August 31 vs. Stephen F. Austin

SFA went 2-8 in the fall, but one of their wins did come over Abilene Christian, the lone common opponent with Baylor. The first game of the season does always allow for some mistakes to happen, but Baylor should roll. 

Outcome: Baylor 49, SFA 10 

Baylor Record: 1-0

Saturday, Sept. 7 vs. UTSA

I don’t believe in revenge games, especially ones that are two years after the fact, but you can’t expect Baylor to overlook UTSA in Waco in 2019 after what happened in 2017. Baylor needed a late touchdown in 2018 to make the score look a little better than it did. I don’t expect that to be the case in 20109.

Outcome: Baylor 45, UTSA 13

Baylor Record: 2-0

Saturday, Sept. 21 at Rice

Unless Rice dramatically improves from a year ago, Baylor shouldn’t have issues coming away with a victory. The only issues will be that the game is on the road and after a somewhat flat performance against UTSA in 2018 on the road, it should be at least a small concern. The difference will be that Charlie Brewer should be the guy from start until the game is fully in control.

Outcome: 45-17

Baylor Record: 3-0

Saturday, Sept. 28 vs. Iowa State

Two years in a row Baylor and Iowa State have battled it out in tough and the events of the 2018 game seemed to have create some bad blood. Baylor hasn’t kept it to a single-digit result either time, but each time the Bears seemed to match up well with the Cyclones. Brock Purdy is back, but David Montgomery and Hakeem Butler are gone and this game will be in Waco.

Outcome: Baylor 28, Iowa State 21

Baylor Record: 4-0

Saturday, Oct. 5 at Kansas State

Possibly the toughest game for me to pick on the schedule. I really like the hire of Chris Klieman by Kansas State. Replacing a do-more-with-less coach like Bill Snyder won’t be easy, but hiring a championship winning coach who wants to run for 300 yards per game might be the best replacement. How long will it take for the offense to catch on? The Wildcats have a QB and RB duo who know how to run the football.

Outcome: Baylor 23, KSU 20

Baylor Record: 5-0

Saturday, Oct. 12 vs. Texas Tech

Kliff Kingsbury’s way with quarterbacks always made the Red Raiders a dangerous team and he left plenty of offensive firepower behind for a new head coach who wants to be considerably more balanced, but like all coaching changes, how long before it gets it to where he needs it to be? I expect Matt Wells to play to the strength of his team in 2019, but Baylor should have enough offensive surge of their own to win in Waco. 

Outcome: Baylor 42, Texas Tech 30

Baylor Record: 6-0

Saturday, Oct. 19 at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State will see turnover at the quarterback position once again, but it’s still Mike Gundy and it’s still Stillwater and something about those two proper nouns together give me anxiety. Even considering the returners for each team and how this series has gone, the Bears losing this one shouldn’t be a surprise. But the Bears winning this one wouldn’t be a surprise, either, based on what we know about the teams today.

Outcome: Baylor 35, OSU 28

Baylor Record: 7-0

Thursday, Oct. 31 vs. West Virginia

Another program where a new head coach is taking over in the Big 12. Not only did WVU lose their head coach to Houston, but they also lost a ton of firepower and experience all over the field. The whipping the Mountaineers put on the Bears in Morgantown reminded me quite a bit of what OSU did in 2017. Baylor followed that up with a win in 2018. 

Outcome: Baylor 38, WVU 24

Baylor Record: 8-0

Saturday, Nov. 9 at TCU

We all know by now that TCU’s defense will be stout and until Baylor can figure out how to run against the Gary Patterson defense, scoring points will be difficult. The good news for Baylor is that TCU still hasn’t really addressed their offensive needs and scoring points of their own won’t be easy either. For now, this game is truly a toss up and TCU seems to have Baylor’s number.

Outcome: TCU 20, Baylor 17

Baylor Record: 8-1

Saturday, Nov. 16 vs. Oklahoma

No Baker? No Kyler? Hello, Jalen! Oklahoma received a transfer from Alabama’s second-string QB and hired Ohio State’s co-defensive coordinator Alex Grinch as DC. By the time this game rolls around we will truly know how Lincoln Riley can develop QBs and/or adjust to the style of his QB and how immediate of an impact Grinch can have on one of the worst defenses in college football. If Baylor doesn’t shoot itself in the foot, this will be a very entertaining game.

Outcome: Oklahoma 45, Baylor 38

Baylor Record: 8-2

Saturday, Nov. 23 vs. Texas

Believe it or not, Baylor still hasn’t faced phenom QB Sam Ehlinger for more than a single drive over the last two seasons. Because of that, we still haven’t seen the Charlie Brewer vs. Sam Ehlinger that was widely discussed when each sign with their respective programs. How well Todd Orlando can replace eight defensive starters and if Tom Herman can build up his depth on the OL to keep Ehlinger healthy will be the key at this time in the season.

Outcome: Texas 28, Baylor 21

Baylor Record: 8-3

Saturday, Nov. 30 at Kansas

Les Miles has generated a buzz in Lawrence, but unless he’s generated a quarterback, an offensive line and defensive line in one recruiting class, Kansas is still set for significant struggles in 2019. A game in late November that far North isn’t ideal, but it’s better against the Jayhawks than against the Wildcats or Cyclones.

Outcome: Baylor 38, Kansas 10


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Tags: Football, Baylor, 2019
Discussion from...

Six months out: Predicting Baylor's 2019 season

8,687 Views | 11 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by BaylorBen2010
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I kind of agree with this.
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Loss to Iowa state, but a win over TCU or UT
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Hope you are right ! Asked Grayson same ? last week & he replied 8-4 so y'all are close. FWIW, I think 9-4 with the bowl win but I like yours better!
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You got most of it right except the road loss will be to Okie St, not TCU, and we will beat either OU or UT.
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Brian Ethridge
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MoonshineJones said:

15-0 Popcorn
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MoonshineJones said:

Username checks out.
Grizz Air
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I would predict similar results, except with losses to OU and TCU and a W against whorns. O$U is a true tossup.
BaylorLit 01
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We'll miss Hurd and Thomas. Hurd was the engine of our offense and allowed Mims to be a number 2 receiver. Mims lacks the aggression and confidence to be the guy. I think we'll lose at least one of the @ K State and @OSU games.
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It's lookin' awful promising, fellas....
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I'd rather lose to kansas than tcu
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