Baptist Betting Advice: Civil War
It has been another tough week for BU fans, witnessing the biggest loss at home since 2006. To add insult to injury, the fan base seems to be in a civil war on the fallout of the summer and the next steps Baylor University needs to take.
It was easier to mask when each weekend ended with a win, but now it’s fair to say it is coming to a head. I don’t know the answers or what comes next. But I do know, like most people on this website, I’ll be there to support the next chapter of Baylor football. The past is the past, but at the end of the day Baylor alumni/fans put aside whatever differences they have in life and support a common cause on Saturdays.
If BU/OU doesn’t get the blood flowing Saturday morning, then here are the other Big 12 games and how I see them going this weekend.
It’s the match-up they’ve been waiting for all year. The Pillow Fight of 2016! I can’t lie. I’ve been waiting to write up this game for a few weeks. It hasn’t been the most fun trying to decide how much ISU/KU will lose by every week. Now I can finally pick one of them to win a game.
ISU played a clean game last week against Oklahoma with only one turnover and five penalties. But ultimately their defense couldn’t get off the field as OU piled up 37 minutes of possession.
Last week it was mentioned that freshman David Montgomery could start seeing the bulk of the touches in the running game and that is exactly what happened. The freshman lead the way with 10 carries for 44 yards. While the Cyclones have made a decision at running back, they continue to go with a running qb (Joel Lanning) and a passing QB (Jacob Park). Park has struggled to complete a high percentage of passes, but he didn’t turn it over against OU and with more reps he should get better. Allen Lazard almost has twice as many receiving yards as the next guy on the Cyclones roster. Lazard is a playmaker if the ISU offensive line could keep Park upright.
The ISU defense is a weird one to figure out. They don’t give up a lot of big plays, but they aren’t good enough to stop the chains from being moved on them. I think it is fair to say that Matt Campbell doesn’t have a defensive line that can stand up for 4 quarters and win a football game. Luckily they play the one team in the conference that is probably even worst in talent. If you’re looking for something to watch for the ISU defense, then watch their secondary. They are active in pass breakups and that could play a role with a KU QB who excels at throwing interceptions.
Montell Cozart was knocked out of the WVU game last week with a concussion. Freshman Carter Stanley came in to finish the game and he looked ok compared to what KU has been getting out of the position this year. David Beatty issued a depth chart this week listing Cozart, Stanley, and Ryan Willis as the potential starter on Saturday. Ultimately I don’t think it matters. Willis and Cozart both can’t get the ball down the field and they throw interceptions weekly. To me the clear call is Stanley in order to see what he can do.
We’ve talked about the forgettable KU running game for weeks, so let’s skip that. I want to highlight KU sophomore WR Steven Sims. Sims is the best player on the KU offense and this game is going to be dependent on him to move the chains for whoever plays QB. Sims is coming off a game of 9 receptions for 124 yards. He could see similar numbers against ISU.
The Jayhawk defense continues to get to the QB on passing downs. Dorance Armstrong is leading the conference in tackles for loss and is 2nd in sacks. He will be in Jacob Park’s face all day with the ISU offensive line struggles. Kansas struggles to stop the run and their secondary isn’t good enough to hold out if the pass rush doesn’t get to the QB. I think KU has defense in this game.
I think Matt Campbell has ISU going the right direction. But to me this isn’t a two score game. I think KU’s defense will make enough plays to give KU a shot for their first Big 12 win since ISU went to Lawrence in 2014.
ISU 28, KU 21
When your running back has 341 yards I wouldn’t think your QB would need to throw the ball 40 times. But that’s just what happened in Lubbock last weekend for Texas. D’Onta Foreman now has his name in the mix of best running backs in the country and its deserved. Foreman now has 300 more rushing yards than the next power-5 running back. Foreman’s emergence as a premier back in the sport is helping Shane Buechele because the freshman QB isn’t being asked to go out and win a game. This week the Horns will need both aspects of their offense to deal with WVU.
The Mountaineer defense has been good at stopping the run. They won’t make a lot of plays behind the line of scrimmage, but they will get the job done. Statistically WVU looks like they should be fine against Foreman. I just think they haven’t seen a big back like Foreman who can’t be tackled by one man. The WVU pass defense has been great this year. They secondary has played well and they will get stops.
On the other side of the ball, the WVU offense is coming off a big win against KU with 2 100-yard rushers in Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy. Mckoy logged his first career 100-yard game in the absence of Rushel Shell. Shell is a game time decision this weekend.
Skyler Howard continues to find Daikel Shorts and Shelton Gibson. We are two thirds of the way through the season and Gibson is still over 20 yards per catch. Howard isn’t going to win any awards in the Big 12 this year, but he has been the model of consistency that WVU has needed.
The Texas defense has been improving in recent weeks. They are still vulnerable to the pass and I’d expect this to be what Dana Holgerson challenges. The Horns do get to the QB often and that could get Howard on the run earlier than he’d like.
A month ago I wouldn’t have thought this would be the case, but I think UT should get the win at home now. Foreman is the difference maker and I think WVU may struggle to consistently run the ball.
UT 38, WVU 34
Oklahoma State continues to fly under the radar in my opinion. The lost to the Fleck Broncos is holding too much weight when ranking the Cowboys. Outside of that loss OSU has only dropped the game in Waco which was close much of the game.
Mason Rudolph has turned it on in conference play. Rudolph now has 16 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in Big 12 play. Of course it always helps when you have targets like James Washington and Jalen McCleskey to throw to. In the backfield Justice Hill will get the bulk of the touches. He didn’t see many touches last week because OSU played from behind most of the game.
If there was a defense to run on it is the Red Raider defense. Tech showed last week that they couldn’t stop a blind man from running for 100+ yards. Tech isn’t very good at defending long passing plays either. Its going to be a long day for Tech again. I think David Gibbs needs to get his resume together.
From the Tech offensive side of things, you know Mahomes is going to throw the ball. In 9 games this year, Tech has thrown the ball over 50 times in 6 of those games. Jonathan Giles will make you put the ball in the air and hope he can make plays. If Dede Westbrook wasn’t doing what he is then Giles would be getting more attention. As far as the Tech running game, Da’Leon Ward has been leading the way the last 2 weeks. He is looking for his first 100-yard rushing game this weekend.
The OSU defense isn’t very good in stopping the run or the pass. But they basically are only threatened by the Tech passing game on Saturday. The Pokes are average when it comes to keeping the ball in front of them and defending against big plays. DT Vincent Taylor has 3.5 sacks in the last 2 games and he will be looking to extend that streak.
OSU is the better team. But Tech is a tough out and I think they will keep the game close. I think Tech’s biggest weakness is their rushing defense. Is Justice Hill the guy to expose it? I don’t think so. Give me Tech to make it close.
Tech 35, OSU 42
It was easier to mask when each weekend ended with a win, but now it’s fair to say it is coming to a head. I don’t know the answers or what comes next. But I do know, like most people on this website, I’ll be there to support the next chapter of Baylor football. The past is the past, but at the end of the day Baylor alumni/fans put aside whatever differences they have in life and support a common cause on Saturdays.
If BU/OU doesn’t get the blood flowing Saturday morning, then here are the other Big 12 games and how I see them going this weekend.
Iowa State at Kansas
Vegas line: ISU -10It’s the match-up they’ve been waiting for all year. The Pillow Fight of 2016! I can’t lie. I’ve been waiting to write up this game for a few weeks. It hasn’t been the most fun trying to decide how much ISU/KU will lose by every week. Now I can finally pick one of them to win a game.
ISU played a clean game last week against Oklahoma with only one turnover and five penalties. But ultimately their defense couldn’t get off the field as OU piled up 37 minutes of possession.
Last week it was mentioned that freshman David Montgomery could start seeing the bulk of the touches in the running game and that is exactly what happened. The freshman lead the way with 10 carries for 44 yards. While the Cyclones have made a decision at running back, they continue to go with a running qb (Joel Lanning) and a passing QB (Jacob Park). Park has struggled to complete a high percentage of passes, but he didn’t turn it over against OU and with more reps he should get better. Allen Lazard almost has twice as many receiving yards as the next guy on the Cyclones roster. Lazard is a playmaker if the ISU offensive line could keep Park upright.
The ISU defense is a weird one to figure out. They don’t give up a lot of big plays, but they aren’t good enough to stop the chains from being moved on them. I think it is fair to say that Matt Campbell doesn’t have a defensive line that can stand up for 4 quarters and win a football game. Luckily they play the one team in the conference that is probably even worst in talent. If you’re looking for something to watch for the ISU defense, then watch their secondary. They are active in pass breakups and that could play a role with a KU QB who excels at throwing interceptions.
Montell Cozart was knocked out of the WVU game last week with a concussion. Freshman Carter Stanley came in to finish the game and he looked ok compared to what KU has been getting out of the position this year. David Beatty issued a depth chart this week listing Cozart, Stanley, and Ryan Willis as the potential starter on Saturday. Ultimately I don’t think it matters. Willis and Cozart both can’t get the ball down the field and they throw interceptions weekly. To me the clear call is Stanley in order to see what he can do.
We’ve talked about the forgettable KU running game for weeks, so let’s skip that. I want to highlight KU sophomore WR Steven Sims. Sims is the best player on the KU offense and this game is going to be dependent on him to move the chains for whoever plays QB. Sims is coming off a game of 9 receptions for 124 yards. He could see similar numbers against ISU.
The Jayhawk defense continues to get to the QB on passing downs. Dorance Armstrong is leading the conference in tackles for loss and is 2nd in sacks. He will be in Jacob Park’s face all day with the ISU offensive line struggles. Kansas struggles to stop the run and their secondary isn’t good enough to hold out if the pass rush doesn’t get to the QB. I think KU has defense in this game.
I think Matt Campbell has ISU going the right direction. But to me this isn’t a two score game. I think KU’s defense will make enough plays to give KU a shot for their first Big 12 win since ISU went to Lawrence in 2014.
ISU 28, KU 21
West Virginia at Texas
Vegas line: Texas -2When your running back has 341 yards I wouldn’t think your QB would need to throw the ball 40 times. But that’s just what happened in Lubbock last weekend for Texas. D’Onta Foreman now has his name in the mix of best running backs in the country and its deserved. Foreman now has 300 more rushing yards than the next power-5 running back. Foreman’s emergence as a premier back in the sport is helping Shane Buechele because the freshman QB isn’t being asked to go out and win a game. This week the Horns will need both aspects of their offense to deal with WVU.
The Mountaineer defense has been good at stopping the run. They won’t make a lot of plays behind the line of scrimmage, but they will get the job done. Statistically WVU looks like they should be fine against Foreman. I just think they haven’t seen a big back like Foreman who can’t be tackled by one man. The WVU pass defense has been great this year. They secondary has played well and they will get stops.
On the other side of the ball, the WVU offense is coming off a big win against KU with 2 100-yard rushers in Justin Crawford and Kennedy McKoy. Mckoy logged his first career 100-yard game in the absence of Rushel Shell. Shell is a game time decision this weekend.
Skyler Howard continues to find Daikel Shorts and Shelton Gibson. We are two thirds of the way through the season and Gibson is still over 20 yards per catch. Howard isn’t going to win any awards in the Big 12 this year, but he has been the model of consistency that WVU has needed.
The Texas defense has been improving in recent weeks. They are still vulnerable to the pass and I’d expect this to be what Dana Holgerson challenges. The Horns do get to the QB often and that could get Howard on the run earlier than he’d like.
A month ago I wouldn’t have thought this would be the case, but I think UT should get the win at home now. Foreman is the difference maker and I think WVU may struggle to consistently run the ball.
UT 38, WVU 34
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State
Vegas line: OSU -12.5Oklahoma State continues to fly under the radar in my opinion. The lost to the Fleck Broncos is holding too much weight when ranking the Cowboys. Outside of that loss OSU has only dropped the game in Waco which was close much of the game.
Mason Rudolph has turned it on in conference play. Rudolph now has 16 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in Big 12 play. Of course it always helps when you have targets like James Washington and Jalen McCleskey to throw to. In the backfield Justice Hill will get the bulk of the touches. He didn’t see many touches last week because OSU played from behind most of the game.
If there was a defense to run on it is the Red Raider defense. Tech showed last week that they couldn’t stop a blind man from running for 100+ yards. Tech isn’t very good at defending long passing plays either. Its going to be a long day for Tech again. I think David Gibbs needs to get his resume together.
From the Tech offensive side of things, you know Mahomes is going to throw the ball. In 9 games this year, Tech has thrown the ball over 50 times in 6 of those games. Jonathan Giles will make you put the ball in the air and hope he can make plays. If Dede Westbrook wasn’t doing what he is then Giles would be getting more attention. As far as the Tech running game, Da’Leon Ward has been leading the way the last 2 weeks. He is looking for his first 100-yard rushing game this weekend.
The OSU defense isn’t very good in stopping the run or the pass. But they basically are only threatened by the Tech passing game on Saturday. The Pokes are average when it comes to keeping the ball in front of them and defending against big plays. DT Vincent Taylor has 3.5 sacks in the last 2 games and he will be looking to extend that streak.
OSU is the better team. But Tech is a tough out and I think they will keep the game close. I think Tech’s biggest weakness is their rushing defense. Is Justice Hill the guy to expose it? I don’t think so. Give me Tech to make it close.
Tech 35, OSU 42
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