Rooting for Oklahoma I guess. I think that they can win Bedlam and I prefer the idea of "one true champion"
Baptist Betting Advice: Some of the Marbles
This is the final week of Big 12 football in which all 10 teams will play. It looks to be a week that could confirm what was predicted at the beginning of the year may with OU clinching a share of the Big 12 title.
It is also a week where 3 teams in the conference (Kansas St, Texas, and TCU) are hoping to become bowl eligible. As Baylor fans, it is a week in which we say goodbye to the seniors at home and we also say hello to the Zach Smith era.
Seth Russell has been a QB who I believe will be remembered for the fight he had. He learned the offense and waited his turn behind Petty. Then when he got the reins he made sure everyone knew he deserved it. He fought back after the neck injury. He fought for his school and his teammates when the scandal broke open over the summer. He fought hard this year to keep the team together.
I look forward to see what Seth will accomplish in life on and off the field.
Sometimes you’re good and sometimes you’re lucky. Last Saturday OSU was lucky Texas Tech missed the tying extra point with 2 minutes left in the game. Patrick Mahomes and Mason Rudolph traded blows through the game and ultimately it was the OSU offense that came out on top in part because Tech doesn’t have a dependable rushing attack.
Since the loss in Waco, the Cowboys have reeled off 6 wins in a row. If it weren’t for the Western Michigan “loss”, OSU would be safely inside the top 10 nationally. But instead they will enter their last two games as an underdog. Justice Hill’s emergence this season has been the difference in OSU being good or great. The freshman has 4 100-yard rushing games in conference. But when he has faced a good running defense like KSU or WVU he hasn’t been able to top 60 yards. Some of this has to do with an OSU line that hasn’t been consistent. This will be something to watch this week.
The OSU passing offense is fun to watch with the WR duo of James Washington and Jalen McCleskey making plays for Mason Rudolph. Outside of the 26 sacks he has taken, Mason Rudolph has done everything Mike Gundy could have asked for with a 24 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio.
The offensive line issues could be exposed by TCU because the Frog defense is 9th in the country in adjusted sack rate. Josh Carraway, Matt Boesen, and Aaron Curry have combined for 18 sacks this season. The TCU secondary has been decent when it comes to deflecting passes and forcing turnovers. The TCU rush defense is also pretty good outside of short yardage situations.
The last time anyone saw the TCU offense, they were running up in down the field in Waco to hand the Bears their biggest loss in 9 years. Kyle Hicks had his best game of the year against the Bears and he will look to do it again this weekend. Hicks is averaging 6 yards per carry and he will face an OSU defense that is 93rd in the country against the rush giving up 5 yards per carry.
Kenny Hill was facing some heat from Gary Patterson before the Baylor game, but he didn’t throw an interception in Waco. Consistency is the key for Hill and the TCU offense. Hill has playmakers outside with Taj Williams, who can stretch the field, and KaVontae Turpin, who is their possession receiver after his injury. It’s on Hill to make plays.
This game comes down to OSU’s ability to stop TCU. The Pokes defense has done well at limiting explosive passing plays and making plays on 3rd down. But they struggle to stop the run and every team has been able to move the ball through the air against the Cowboys. That’s the difference for me in this game.
OSU 38, TCU 45
Iowa State won the Golden Pillow last week after beating Kansas in the annual game for bottom of the Big 12 bragging rights. After beating Carter Stanley in his first start, ISU now has to deal with a much more experienced QB in Pat Mahomes this week.
Iowa State ran less of the 2 QB rotation last week than they had been in recent weeks. Jacob Park is now solely the guy responsible for this offense. Park is coming off his first conference game that he completed more than 60% of his passes. Allen Lizard has become the security blanket for Park by averaging 8 receptions in the last 3 games.
In the running game freshman David Montgomery has become the feature running back for ISU. Montgomery had 25 touches for 174 yards last week. While the ISU offensive line hasn’t been able to open up running lanes this season, ISU should still be able to move the ball on the ground against Tech because well… they have legs.
Texas Tech comes into this game needing to win their last 2 games to get to a bowl game. One would think ISU would be an easy W for the Raiders but Tech hasn’t made their own life easy this year. Their defense has put them in bad spots and they seem to always need 40-45 points to win the game.
Patrick Mahomes is putting up numbers that should get him nominated for awards if he wasn’t on a 4-6 team. Mahomes has 4700 total yards and 46 touchdowns to go with his 8 interceptions. I wonder if these are the last 2 games he plays in college. Jonathan Giles is the favorite target in the Raider receiving group. For as bad as ISU has been their defense consistently limits huge plays in the passing game. Something has to give in this matchup.
This game should be close for much of the game. The Texas Tech we have come to know offensively comes and goes throughout the game. ISU isn’t going to be an easy out and Tech will have to score often or extend drives to keep their defense off the field. This could be the upset of the week in the conference.
Tech 34, ISU 35
Kansas could almost taste their first Big 12 win in 2 years last week. Then their offense shutdown and it slipped away from them. Now they host Texas who is bringing the best running back in the country to town.
Freshman QB Carter Stanley received his first start last week against Iowa St. The freshman completed 68% of his passes and had 1 td to go with 1 interception. The playbook calling was very conservative and David Beaty seemed to keep it simple for Stanley. Steven Simms is the main target for KU, but he was held in check last week with only 37 yards receiving on 9 receptions. Sims should be better against a porous UT secondary if Stanley can get time to throw.
Texas was on the board first last week against WVU when they went up 3-0. But they wouldn’t lead again due to 3 turnovers. The UT offense racked up 150 more yards than WVU and even at home Texas could not convert those drives into points.
It has now been over a calendar year since D’Onta Foreman put on pads and was held to less than 100 yards rushing. He won’t be stopped on Saturday against Kansas. Personally I just enjoy watching him run and he has become something to track every Saturday to see how many yards he can pile up.
Shane Buechele faces an underrated KU pass defense this week. Buechele has essentially become a younger Skylar Howard this season. He is going to put up between 250-290 yards, 1-2 touchdowns, and an interception. He is dependable and Charlie Strong can trust what he is going to get. I think KU is capable of forcing Buechele to make mistakes and get some sacks. If KU can get Texas to put the ball in the air then the Jayhawks have a good chance to cover this spread.
The UT defense has played a lot better since Strong took over as the play caller. The Horns can play aggressive and get after the QB. The KU offensive line is pretty bad so expect UT to come after the freshman often.
I think UT being favored by 24 is a good line. If I was playing the game, I’d play the under of 62.5 points instead of playing the spread.
UT 38, KU 17
West Virginia’s Big 12 title hopes come down to this game. A win and the Mountaineers would be in a good position to hold a share of the title if OU could win Bedlam. A loss and WVU is probably looking at 3rd place in the conference.
Last week WVU went on the road and got one of their best wins of the year against Texas. Skylar Howard had a game to forget last week with 3 interceptions. The WVU running game was also shut down also by averaging just 3 yards a carry.
Oklahoma is a different animal than Texas. WVU will need Skylar Howard to be on his game and to get Shelton Gibson and Daikiel Shorts involved. Gibson hasn’t been as explosive since conference play got rolling, but Shorts has stepped up and become the main playmaker in the WVU offense. The passing game matchup with the OU defense slightly favors WVU. If Howard can make plays down the field then OU is in trouble.
The WVU running game has been a revolving door this season. Rushel Shell got the first chance, then Justin Crawford had his shot, and now Kennedy McKoy has been getting the carries the past 2 weeks. McKoy was shut down against Texas, so it will be interesting to see if Crawford gets more touches this week. OU has not been great at stopping the run in short yardage situations. This would favor WVU if they could find a running game.
Oklahoma has arguably the nation’s best offense. If you choose to try to stop the run, then Mayfield and Westbrook beat you. If you choose to stop the pass, then Mixon and Perine get after you. It’s a tough matchup for any defense. I think OU will run and work to expose the WVU defensive line that hasn’t penetrated the backfield on run or pass plays this season.
The match-up to watch will be the WVU secondary against Dede Westbrook. If the Mountaineers can keep him under control then they will make a game out of it.
OU 38, WVU 35
It is also a week where 3 teams in the conference (Kansas St, Texas, and TCU) are hoping to become bowl eligible. As Baylor fans, it is a week in which we say goodbye to the seniors at home and we also say hello to the Zach Smith era.
Seth Russell has been a QB who I believe will be remembered for the fight he had. He learned the offense and waited his turn behind Petty. Then when he got the reins he made sure everyone knew he deserved it. He fought back after the neck injury. He fought for his school and his teammates when the scandal broke open over the summer. He fought hard this year to keep the team together.
I look forward to see what Seth will accomplish in life on and off the field.
Oklahoma State at TCU
Vegas line: -4.5Sometimes you’re good and sometimes you’re lucky. Last Saturday OSU was lucky Texas Tech missed the tying extra point with 2 minutes left in the game. Patrick Mahomes and Mason Rudolph traded blows through the game and ultimately it was the OSU offense that came out on top in part because Tech doesn’t have a dependable rushing attack.
Since the loss in Waco, the Cowboys have reeled off 6 wins in a row. If it weren’t for the Western Michigan “loss”, OSU would be safely inside the top 10 nationally. But instead they will enter their last two games as an underdog. Justice Hill’s emergence this season has been the difference in OSU being good or great. The freshman has 4 100-yard rushing games in conference. But when he has faced a good running defense like KSU or WVU he hasn’t been able to top 60 yards. Some of this has to do with an OSU line that hasn’t been consistent. This will be something to watch this week.
The OSU passing offense is fun to watch with the WR duo of James Washington and Jalen McCleskey making plays for Mason Rudolph. Outside of the 26 sacks he has taken, Mason Rudolph has done everything Mike Gundy could have asked for with a 24 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio.
The offensive line issues could be exposed by TCU because the Frog defense is 9th in the country in adjusted sack rate. Josh Carraway, Matt Boesen, and Aaron Curry have combined for 18 sacks this season. The TCU secondary has been decent when it comes to deflecting passes and forcing turnovers. The TCU rush defense is also pretty good outside of short yardage situations.
The last time anyone saw the TCU offense, they were running up in down the field in Waco to hand the Bears their biggest loss in 9 years. Kyle Hicks had his best game of the year against the Bears and he will look to do it again this weekend. Hicks is averaging 6 yards per carry and he will face an OSU defense that is 93rd in the country against the rush giving up 5 yards per carry.
Kenny Hill was facing some heat from Gary Patterson before the Baylor game, but he didn’t throw an interception in Waco. Consistency is the key for Hill and the TCU offense. Hill has playmakers outside with Taj Williams, who can stretch the field, and KaVontae Turpin, who is their possession receiver after his injury. It’s on Hill to make plays.
This game comes down to OSU’s ability to stop TCU. The Pokes defense has done well at limiting explosive passing plays and making plays on 3rd down. But they struggle to stop the run and every team has been able to move the ball through the air against the Cowboys. That’s the difference for me in this game.
OSU 38, TCU 45
Texas Tech at Iowa State
Vegas line: Tech -3.5Iowa State won the Golden Pillow last week after beating Kansas in the annual game for bottom of the Big 12 bragging rights. After beating Carter Stanley in his first start, ISU now has to deal with a much more experienced QB in Pat Mahomes this week.
Iowa State ran less of the 2 QB rotation last week than they had been in recent weeks. Jacob Park is now solely the guy responsible for this offense. Park is coming off his first conference game that he completed more than 60% of his passes. Allen Lizard has become the security blanket for Park by averaging 8 receptions in the last 3 games.
In the running game freshman David Montgomery has become the feature running back for ISU. Montgomery had 25 touches for 174 yards last week. While the ISU offensive line hasn’t been able to open up running lanes this season, ISU should still be able to move the ball on the ground against Tech because well… they have legs.
Texas Tech comes into this game needing to win their last 2 games to get to a bowl game. One would think ISU would be an easy W for the Raiders but Tech hasn’t made their own life easy this year. Their defense has put them in bad spots and they seem to always need 40-45 points to win the game.
Patrick Mahomes is putting up numbers that should get him nominated for awards if he wasn’t on a 4-6 team. Mahomes has 4700 total yards and 46 touchdowns to go with his 8 interceptions. I wonder if these are the last 2 games he plays in college. Jonathan Giles is the favorite target in the Raider receiving group. For as bad as ISU has been their defense consistently limits huge plays in the passing game. Something has to give in this matchup.
This game should be close for much of the game. The Texas Tech we have come to know offensively comes and goes throughout the game. ISU isn’t going to be an easy out and Tech will have to score often or extend drives to keep their defense off the field. This could be the upset of the week in the conference.
Tech 34, ISU 35
Texas at Kansas
Vegas line: UT -24Kansas could almost taste their first Big 12 win in 2 years last week. Then their offense shutdown and it slipped away from them. Now they host Texas who is bringing the best running back in the country to town.
Freshman QB Carter Stanley received his first start last week against Iowa St. The freshman completed 68% of his passes and had 1 td to go with 1 interception. The playbook calling was very conservative and David Beaty seemed to keep it simple for Stanley. Steven Simms is the main target for KU, but he was held in check last week with only 37 yards receiving on 9 receptions. Sims should be better against a porous UT secondary if Stanley can get time to throw.
Texas was on the board first last week against WVU when they went up 3-0. But they wouldn’t lead again due to 3 turnovers. The UT offense racked up 150 more yards than WVU and even at home Texas could not convert those drives into points.
It has now been over a calendar year since D’Onta Foreman put on pads and was held to less than 100 yards rushing. He won’t be stopped on Saturday against Kansas. Personally I just enjoy watching him run and he has become something to track every Saturday to see how many yards he can pile up.
Shane Buechele faces an underrated KU pass defense this week. Buechele has essentially become a younger Skylar Howard this season. He is going to put up between 250-290 yards, 1-2 touchdowns, and an interception. He is dependable and Charlie Strong can trust what he is going to get. I think KU is capable of forcing Buechele to make mistakes and get some sacks. If KU can get Texas to put the ball in the air then the Jayhawks have a good chance to cover this spread.
The UT defense has played a lot better since Strong took over as the play caller. The Horns can play aggressive and get after the QB. The KU offensive line is pretty bad so expect UT to come after the freshman often.
I think UT being favored by 24 is a good line. If I was playing the game, I’d play the under of 62.5 points instead of playing the spread.
UT 38, KU 17
Oklahoma at West Virginia
Vegas line: OU -3.5West Virginia’s Big 12 title hopes come down to this game. A win and the Mountaineers would be in a good position to hold a share of the title if OU could win Bedlam. A loss and WVU is probably looking at 3rd place in the conference.
Last week WVU went on the road and got one of their best wins of the year against Texas. Skylar Howard had a game to forget last week with 3 interceptions. The WVU running game was also shut down also by averaging just 3 yards a carry.
Oklahoma is a different animal than Texas. WVU will need Skylar Howard to be on his game and to get Shelton Gibson and Daikiel Shorts involved. Gibson hasn’t been as explosive since conference play got rolling, but Shorts has stepped up and become the main playmaker in the WVU offense. The passing game matchup with the OU defense slightly favors WVU. If Howard can make plays down the field then OU is in trouble.
The WVU running game has been a revolving door this season. Rushel Shell got the first chance, then Justin Crawford had his shot, and now Kennedy McKoy has been getting the carries the past 2 weeks. McKoy was shut down against Texas, so it will be interesting to see if Crawford gets more touches this week. OU has not been great at stopping the run in short yardage situations. This would favor WVU if they could find a running game.
Oklahoma has arguably the nation’s best offense. If you choose to try to stop the run, then Mayfield and Westbrook beat you. If you choose to stop the pass, then Mixon and Perine get after you. It’s a tough matchup for any defense. I think OU will run and work to expose the WVU defensive line that hasn’t penetrated the backfield on run or pass plays this season.
The match-up to watch will be the WVU secondary against Dede Westbrook. If the Mountaineers can keep him under control then they will make a game out of it.
OU 38, WVU 35
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