Baptist Betting Advice: Post-Thanksgiving
By the time you’re reading this it will be Friday and you have probably entered the turkey sandwich portion of your weekend. If your family is like mine, all day Friday is spent watching football. Then Saturday you wake up and do it again. It is one of my favorite weeks of college football.
This year it feels like there is a lull in the conference in terms of good games this week. There isn’t a game with 2 teams that are above .500 playing this week. Four Big 12 teams will wrap-up their season this week. If you’re looking for some Big 12 drama, then watch the TCU-UT game. Texas is one of the teams wrapping up their season this week and they need this win to go to a bowl. TCU also needs the win to get to a bowl.
One thing I’m Thankful for this year is that these picks have gone well for me this year. I was hoping I wouldn’t go through this all year and finish with an awful record. Entering this week against the spread these picks are 29-21-1 against the spread. Let’s hope for another winning week.
There are hot seats and then there is the seat that has caught on fire and everyone knows that it needs to be thrown out. This is Charlie Strong’s tenure at Texas. He can win by 50 on Saturday and he won’t be coaching in Austin in 2017. No matter how nice a guy you are, results matter and Texas wasn’t getting what they expected through 3 seasons.
While Texas will have all of the storylines coming into the game, has anyone realized that TCU is an underdog in a game it needs to win to become bowl eligible? TCU has 2 chances to still go to a bowl and after a 31-6 loss last week they have work to do.
TCU’s offense sputtered last weekend against Oklahoma State. The Frogs offense was held to under 350 yards and Kenny Hill threw another 2 interceptions. Hill now has a 15-12 touchdown to interception ratio this season. Foster Sawyer came in at the end of the game, but Gary Patterson has said Hill is still the starter. Patterson needs to ride Hill because although he turns the ball over, Hill can be the best running threat on the field. Running back Kyle Hicks was locked down last week against OSU with only 47 yards on 25 carries.
Life has to be tough for Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. Week in and week out you don’t know which offense is going to show up. You can put up 46 points on Oklahoma or you can score a combined 30 against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. TCU has also struggled to finish drives with points. A part of this is turnovers and another aspect is TCU being 65th in the country at 3rd down success rate. The UT defense will give up points, but if TCU continues to shoot themselves in the foot it will be a long day. The longhorn defense is weak in the secondary if Hill can exploit it.
Texas learned it is tough to beat anyone when you have 6 turnovers. Three of the turnovers were on the UT side of the field and another ended their scoring chance in overtime. Kansas was able to take those chances and get 13 points out of them.
D’Onta Foreman may be playing his last game in a Texas uniform. Foreman carried the ball 51 times last week and he piled up 250 yards. He now has 4 straight weeks of 30+ carries, so it will be interesting to see if the workload affects him.
Texas never did find a receiver they could go to every week. Armanti Foreman is probably the closest to that, but even he doesn’t have 500 yards this season. Shane Buechele will have his work cut out for him because the TCU defense doesn’t give much in the passing game.
This game will be a lot like the Baylor- Tech game in that I don’t know what teams will come to play. I know Texas will run the ball. But outside of that I don’t know what TCU offense will show up or if UT can play a clean game.
Texas 28, TCU 27
First things first, congratulations to Kansas! Freshman QB Carter Stanley and the KU defense led the way for Kansas to get their first win over Texas since 1938.
Kansas hasn’t been able to run the ball all season. Ke’aun Kinner I still think could be a decent back if he played somewhere else, but the KU offensive line doesn’t open up any holes. Kinner could benefit from Stanley taking the next step by pushing the ball down the field. This would get more players out of the box and would allow KU to open up the offense. The unfortunate truth is that won’t happen until next year at the earliest.
Kansas State isn’t the defense you learn to run the football against. The Wildcats’ defense is very good upfront and they have dominated short yardage situations this season. KSU is able to be beat through the air if you can string together a drive. They don’t give up many big plays.
Offensively KSU is going to run at you and make you stop them 3 plays in a row in order to get the ball back. They don’t give you free plays. Freshman running back Alex Barnes had his breakout game last weekend in Waco. The freshman racked up 129 yards on 19 carries. This is important to give KSU another guy that can pick up yards and give QB Jesse Ertz a break.
I like KU to cover this game. KSU is the better team and will win, but 27 are too many points for me. By the way, with a win this weekend KSU is staring at a 8-4 season if they can beat TCU. It’s another impressive season for the Wizard.
KU 14, KSU 35
Last week in the preview of WVU-OU I wrote “If Howard can make plays down the field then OU is in trouble.” That didn’t happen. Skylar Howard went 12-27 for 191 passing yards. After a bad start for WVU, they looked up and Oklahoma had jumped out to a 34-0 lead before halftime. Ultimately it was too much for WVU to mount a comeback. Now after a 6-0 start the Mountaineers won’t have a share of the Big 12 title.
Fortunately for the ‘Eers they have an easier task this week with Iowa State. It seemed to go unnoticed with the other headlines in the Big 12, but did you know WVU RB Justin Crawford ran for 331 yards last week? Crawford had 6 runs over 20 yards. Even with all of those yards, he couldn’t get a touchdown. Look for WVU to try to keep the ground game going with an ISU defense that will give up yards on the ground.
In the passing game, WVU has seen a lackluster Skyler Howard in the past 2 games. The last 2 games Howard has been 53% passing and he has a 3 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio. ISU’s passing defense has limited the big play, but they do give up yards if a QB is accurate. I don’t like the passing game matchup for WVU.
Last week Iowa State treated Texas Tech like a turkey on Thanksgiving. Iowa State recorded the most points in program history against a conference opponent with 66 points. Matt Campbell is pushing the right buttons on offense. Jacob Park has given the Cyclones a more consistent passing game and QB Joel Lanning has become the go to player in the running game. While Lanning isn’t a great option to throw the ball, he makes the defense honor his arm and he has been able to run for first downs.
The WVU defense is better than it showed last week. The Mountaineer defense has been great against the run and it should be able to stop ISU because of the lack of a good RB for ISU. The pass defense is average. The question will be can Jacob Park complete enough passes and move the chains.
The ISU offense isn’t going to turn heads. But when they get inside the 40 yard line, ISU is in the top 20 in the country at scoring points. That could be the difference in this game.
WVU 31, ISU 28
This year it feels like there is a lull in the conference in terms of good games this week. There isn’t a game with 2 teams that are above .500 playing this week. Four Big 12 teams will wrap-up their season this week. If you’re looking for some Big 12 drama, then watch the TCU-UT game. Texas is one of the teams wrapping up their season this week and they need this win to go to a bowl. TCU also needs the win to get to a bowl.
One thing I’m Thankful for this year is that these picks have gone well for me this year. I was hoping I wouldn’t go through this all year and finish with an awful record. Entering this week against the spread these picks are 29-21-1 against the spread. Let’s hope for another winning week.
TCU at Texas
Vegas line: UT -3There are hot seats and then there is the seat that has caught on fire and everyone knows that it needs to be thrown out. This is Charlie Strong’s tenure at Texas. He can win by 50 on Saturday and he won’t be coaching in Austin in 2017. No matter how nice a guy you are, results matter and Texas wasn’t getting what they expected through 3 seasons.
While Texas will have all of the storylines coming into the game, has anyone realized that TCU is an underdog in a game it needs to win to become bowl eligible? TCU has 2 chances to still go to a bowl and after a 31-6 loss last week they have work to do.
TCU’s offense sputtered last weekend against Oklahoma State. The Frogs offense was held to under 350 yards and Kenny Hill threw another 2 interceptions. Hill now has a 15-12 touchdown to interception ratio this season. Foster Sawyer came in at the end of the game, but Gary Patterson has said Hill is still the starter. Patterson needs to ride Hill because although he turns the ball over, Hill can be the best running threat on the field. Running back Kyle Hicks was locked down last week against OSU with only 47 yards on 25 carries.
Life has to be tough for Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. Week in and week out you don’t know which offense is going to show up. You can put up 46 points on Oklahoma or you can score a combined 30 against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. TCU has also struggled to finish drives with points. A part of this is turnovers and another aspect is TCU being 65th in the country at 3rd down success rate. The UT defense will give up points, but if TCU continues to shoot themselves in the foot it will be a long day. The longhorn defense is weak in the secondary if Hill can exploit it.
Texas learned it is tough to beat anyone when you have 6 turnovers. Three of the turnovers were on the UT side of the field and another ended their scoring chance in overtime. Kansas was able to take those chances and get 13 points out of them.
D’Onta Foreman may be playing his last game in a Texas uniform. Foreman carried the ball 51 times last week and he piled up 250 yards. He now has 4 straight weeks of 30+ carries, so it will be interesting to see if the workload affects him.
Texas never did find a receiver they could go to every week. Armanti Foreman is probably the closest to that, but even he doesn’t have 500 yards this season. Shane Buechele will have his work cut out for him because the TCU defense doesn’t give much in the passing game.
This game will be a lot like the Baylor- Tech game in that I don’t know what teams will come to play. I know Texas will run the ball. But outside of that I don’t know what TCU offense will show up or if UT can play a clean game.
Texas 28, TCU 27
Kansas at Kansas State
Vegas line: KSU -27First things first, congratulations to Kansas! Freshman QB Carter Stanley and the KU defense led the way for Kansas to get their first win over Texas since 1938.
Kansas hasn’t been able to run the ball all season. Ke’aun Kinner I still think could be a decent back if he played somewhere else, but the KU offensive line doesn’t open up any holes. Kinner could benefit from Stanley taking the next step by pushing the ball down the field. This would get more players out of the box and would allow KU to open up the offense. The unfortunate truth is that won’t happen until next year at the earliest.
Kansas State isn’t the defense you learn to run the football against. The Wildcats’ defense is very good upfront and they have dominated short yardage situations this season. KSU is able to be beat through the air if you can string together a drive. They don’t give up many big plays.
Offensively KSU is going to run at you and make you stop them 3 plays in a row in order to get the ball back. They don’t give you free plays. Freshman running back Alex Barnes had his breakout game last weekend in Waco. The freshman racked up 129 yards on 19 carries. This is important to give KSU another guy that can pick up yards and give QB Jesse Ertz a break.
I like KU to cover this game. KSU is the better team and will win, but 27 are too many points for me. By the way, with a win this weekend KSU is staring at a 8-4 season if they can beat TCU. It’s another impressive season for the Wizard.
KU 14, KSU 35
West Virginia at Iowa State
Vegas line: WVU -7Last week in the preview of WVU-OU I wrote “If Howard can make plays down the field then OU is in trouble.” That didn’t happen. Skylar Howard went 12-27 for 191 passing yards. After a bad start for WVU, they looked up and Oklahoma had jumped out to a 34-0 lead before halftime. Ultimately it was too much for WVU to mount a comeback. Now after a 6-0 start the Mountaineers won’t have a share of the Big 12 title.
Fortunately for the ‘Eers they have an easier task this week with Iowa State. It seemed to go unnoticed with the other headlines in the Big 12, but did you know WVU RB Justin Crawford ran for 331 yards last week? Crawford had 6 runs over 20 yards. Even with all of those yards, he couldn’t get a touchdown. Look for WVU to try to keep the ground game going with an ISU defense that will give up yards on the ground.
In the passing game, WVU has seen a lackluster Skyler Howard in the past 2 games. The last 2 games Howard has been 53% passing and he has a 3 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio. ISU’s passing defense has limited the big play, but they do give up yards if a QB is accurate. I don’t like the passing game matchup for WVU.
Last week Iowa State treated Texas Tech like a turkey on Thanksgiving. Iowa State recorded the most points in program history against a conference opponent with 66 points. Matt Campbell is pushing the right buttons on offense. Jacob Park has given the Cyclones a more consistent passing game and QB Joel Lanning has become the go to player in the running game. While Lanning isn’t a great option to throw the ball, he makes the defense honor his arm and he has been able to run for first downs.
The WVU defense is better than it showed last week. The Mountaineer defense has been great against the run and it should be able to stop ISU because of the lack of a good RB for ISU. The pass defense is average. The question will be can Jacob Park complete enough passes and move the chains.
The ISU offense isn’t going to turn heads. But when they get inside the 40 yard line, ISU is in the top 20 in the country at scoring points. That could be the difference in this game.
WVU 31, ISU 28
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