Defining success in year one for Dave Aranda at Baylor

COVID-19 has opened us up to a million crazy scenarios for the 2020 college football season. So when it comes to determining success for Dave Aranda and the Bears in year one, let’s dispense with the permutations of the schedule and for the sake of this piece go with the assumption that all 10 games get played.

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And part of the reason I wanted to write this column is to help people temper expectations for football teams across the board. Nothing about this is normal, so let’s not approach anything this season as it will be. 

There are so many unknown factors. How much has the truncated practice schedule complicated things for teams around the country? Which teams have the maturity to deal with it? Are teams with new coaches at a bigger disadvantage? Or is that based on the returning players and the ability of the coaches to smoothly transition? 

I have a pretty simple way of looking at all this. I expect to see improvement in certain areas and if they do, that’s a check in the positive trend column.

Wins and losses are a tougher reach for me as there will be some wild swings in this season. So while you may expect automatic wins over certain teams this season, more than ever this season will likely prove that as fans you have to take it week to week. 

Baylor Football

Charlie Brewer leads an experienced Baylor offense in the 2020 season under new coordinator Larry Fedora.

With the long preamble out of the way, what will be the definition of success for this Baylor team? In a 12-game season I would normally see this team as an 8-4 type with two victories over non-conference foes, but with 10 games I’m prepared to call 6-4 as the floor.

Despite the big losses in key areas, this team is still full of veteran leadership so I don’t expect a drop off in preparation. Additionally, coming off an 11-win season, it would be hard for me to see this team really hitting a wall and losing more than four times. However, with the losses up front on defense, which was the strength of the team in 2019, I think they will take a step back at least early on. And perhaps this translates to some losses against some of the better teams. 

Seven wins also seems like a reasonable goal if the team really rolls off the momentum they gained from last year. With an offensive line that should be better, it stands to reason that this team could be dynamic on offense with 

And that’s the theme for the season. When you look past the record for things that should make you feel good about the coaching staff, I think you need to pick a couple of things that Baylor could improve upon from 2019 until now.

Is the O-Line better? Is the offense better in the red zone? Can the defense continue to create turnovers? If you can answer yes to any or all of these questions, it should make you feel good about Aranda and company. Which from everything I can tell, most of you already do. 

My advice is not to approach this as you would a normal season. There may be more than one or two strange losses or wins. Look at the little things and enjoy the ride, however long it may be.