Besides Lonescu...what do they have?

Lots of tree-hugging, dope-smoking Antifa.

Ionescu shoots the 3 well, correct? Will DiDi guard her?

They're not a deep team; after transfers and injuries they only have 9 healthy. The core rotation is only 6. They're extremely accurate from 3 point range, with 4 players shooting over 40%. Lobo called them the Golden State Warriors of WBB. They spread the floor and must be guarded honestly to the line, which opens the middle of the floor for drives and mid range shots from Ionescu and Sabally, and for post ups by Hebard. They'll be challenged to guard Kalani and Lauren, because Hebard is the only one who naturally plays a powerful and physical style; Sabally and the others prefer to play more of a European style open floor game. We'll also have a rebounding advantage.
The other 4 starters beyond Ionescu:

• Ruthy Hebard - 6'4" Jr, interior player, she's an honorable mention AA. Strong, athletic, long wingspan, she plays bigger than her height. Never shoots 3, she usually stays within 10 to 15 feet of bucket.
• Satou Sabally - 6'4" So, perimeter player from Germany, she's extremely versatile and athletic. Loves to shoot 3, can also drive to the hole.
• Erin Boley - 6'2" RS So, perimeter player, started career at Notre Dame and transferred. Is primarily a spot up 3 point shooter, over half her shots this year were from 3. Deadly accurate shooter, but not especially quick and doesn't drive to the hoop very often.
• Maite Cazorla, 5'10" Sr, perimeter player from Spain. She's technically the PG, although in tight games they'll give the ball to Ionescu to create and Cazorla will spot up at the 3 point line.
• The primary reserve is Oti Gildon, a 6'1" forward. They also have a 6'6" So reserve named Lydia Giomi, who has length, but is rather thin; she really got pushed around by McCowan in the MSU game.

They seem to have several players who can score and pick up any slack.

See: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=oregon+wbb

Ionescu is extremely talented. She shoots over 40% from 3, and she also is very effective at a pull up midrange game, she can drive to the hole, and if she'd doubled she's an excellent passer. Perhaps the best offensive player in WBB this year. My guess on how we'll match up defensively:

• Kalani v Ruthy Hebard
• Lauren v Satou Sabally
• Didi v Sabrina Ionescu
• Chloe v Erin Boley
• Juicy v Maite Cazorla

Ionescu is not the only one who can shoot. They average just under 42% as a team from 3-point range.
Ionescu averages a hair under 20 ppg, but Ruthie Hebard and Satou Sebally each average over 16, and Boley averages 12. They can hurt you from a lot of different places.

Opponents average 39% FGs against them, which is good but not as good as Baylor. They're outrebounding opponents by an average of 7 per game -- again good but not dominating.

They can go 9 deep. Two of their reserves average over 16 minutes per game, and the other two are averaging around 10. This tells me they're not just using subs to give the starters a quick breather or to come in for the last couple of minutes of blowout games.

I'm getting all of the above from their statistics. I saw a bunch of their Elite Eight game. Extremely impressed with Ionescu. They looked a lot better than Iowa.

Of course, it's possible that the Lady Bears were the reason Iowa didn't look nearly as good as Oregon.

Pretty solid team. Won PAC-12 regular season; lost to Stanford in conference tourney. Team is well coached and have pretty solid athletes at all positions, but no doubt who drives that team...Sabrina Ionescue. Satou Sabally is a nice outside shooting complement to Ionescue, and both can catch fire from beyond the arc. Additionally, Sabrina is quick on the drive and a good finisher around the basket, so her defender can neither help off nor relax while guarding her. They have a mobile big in 6'4" Hebard, and they are not afraid to go inside to her, but her biggest role is to find the open guard beyond the arc and to rebound, but, she CAN score.

Sabrina Ionescue may be the best player in college and probably would have won the POTY if not for being a junior and playing on West Coast away from attention of East Coast media. It is thought she might forego her senior year, and is projected by many to be a first round pick, if she does.

Three things to note:

The team is much more than Ionescue, but she is definitely their engine. They run as efficiently as she runs. Do not think any opponent can shut her down for whole game, but definitely need to make the engine misfire and operate suboptimally. She often gets her shot off wide open, because of how well they run screens and cuts, and how quickly she gets the shot off. Even when her shots are contested, she is a superior shooter. She has beaten teams seemingly by herself..., but not a team like us. It will take fresh legs, laser focus, and lots of communication. We will need to find another defensive level, but I believe we have it.

Our bench has more talent deeper down the line, and I hope they are prepared for that stage. We may need them. Keeping defensive intensity and physicality up will be key. Will be a lot of weary legs after the game.

Oregon didn't venture out on too many long out of conference games. Their longest trip east was to Lansing, where they lost. Lost at Oregon State, at home to UCLA, both without their big, Hebard, playing, and then to Stanford in PAC 12 Tourney. Their signature OOC wins were taking down #18 Syracuse 75-73 at home, and #4 Mississippi State, also at home, 82-74. Other out of conference win of note was an 87-79 defeat of (then) unranked South Dakota State at the Jack Rabbits' home court, but they needed a 25-13 third quarter to get back in the game, after going in at halftime down 30-45.

And that's pretty much all I "think" I know. Take it for what it's worth, which is being a good jumping off point for discussing Oregon...

Chibears2 said:

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Pretty solid team. Won PAC-12 regular season; lost to Stanford in conference tourney. Team is well coached and have pretty solid athletes at all positions, but no doubt who drives that team...Sabrina Ionescue. Satou Sabally is a nice outside shooting complement to Ionescue, and both can catch fire from beyond the arc. Additionally, Sabrina is quick on the drive and a good finisher around the basket, so her defender can neither help off nor relax while guarding her. They have a mobile big in 6'4" Hebard, and they are not afraid to go inside to her, but her biggest role is to find the open guard beyond the arc and to rebound, but, she CAN score.

Sabrina Ionescue may be the best player in college and probably would have won the POTY if not for being a junior and playing on West Coast away from attention of East Coast media. It is thought she might forego her senior year, and is projected by many to be a first round pick, if she does.

Three things to note:

The team is much more than Ionescue, but she is definitely their engine. They run as efficiently as she runs. Do not think any opponent can shut her down for whole game, but definitely need to make the engine misfire and operate suboptimally. She often gets her shot off wide open, because of how well they run screens and cuts, and how quickly she gets the shot off. Even when her shots are contested, she is a superior shooter. She has beaten teams seemingly by herself..., but not a team like us. It will take fresh legs, laser focus, and lots of communication. We will need to find another defensive level, but I believe we have it.

Our bench has more talent deeper down the line, and I hope they are prepared for that stage. We may need them. Keeping defensive intensity and physicality up will be key. Will be a lot of weary legs after the game.

Oregon didn't venture out on too many long out of conference games. Their longest trip west was to Lansing, where they lost. Lost at Oregon State, at home to UCLA, both without their big, Hebard, playing, and then to Stanford in PAC 12 Tourney. Their signature OOC wins were taking down #18 Syracuse 75-73 at home, and #4 Mississippi State, also at home, 82-74. Other out of conference win of note was an 87-79 defeat of (then) unranked South Dakota State at the Jack Rabbits' home court, 87-79, but they needed a 25-13 third quarter to get back in the game, after going in at halftime down 30-45.

And that's pretty much all I "think" I know. Take it for what it's worth, which is being a good jumping off point for discussing Oregon...

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I think this is a very good assessment. Ionescu is definitely the engine that makes them go. She is their leader and wants the ball when they need a basket.

And I agree that the strategy needs to reduce her impact because she's too good to shut down. Make her work harder for her shots. If she's going to score 20 points, make her take 20 shots to get them instead of 8 (the Kobe Bryant defense). Make her spend more energy chasing Didi or whomever on the defensive end. See if we can get her in some foul trouble.

Wouldn't be surprised if Kim rotates a couple of different players, not just Didi, to guard her, to keep putting fresh legs and different looks on her.

Would a zone be the best defense against Oregon? I'm just thinking we need Brown down low and not chasing their post out of the box. McCowan got burned over and over again because she was out of position and they fed cutters behind her. No coach here so I'm sure you guys can educate me.

WacoKelly83 said:

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Would a zone be the best defense against Oregon? I'm just thinking we need Brown down low and not chasing their post out of the box. McCowan got burned over and over again because she was out of position and they fed cutters behind her. No coach here so I'm sure you guys can educate me.

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Kim will almost never play a zone. It goes against our entire philosophy. Oregon's shooters would likely would able to shoot over it anyway. We will play our usual style, and force Oregon to play a more physical game than they are comfortable with.

No reason to play zone when you have a superior team built on defense. If they can beat Baylor's defense straight up then they deserve the win. The only way that I see Oregon winning is if they can match the defensive intensity that Baylor brings.

It's concerning to know that Oregon has multiple players capable of shooting a high percentage from 3. That has been the Achilles heel for this Baylor program in years past in the tournament, particularly against Louisville and Oregon State.

What was the injury to their big and is she back to 100%? I'll hang up and listen.

Hebard injured her knee in game v Oregon State. MRI showed no structural damage, was described as bone bruise. She only missed two games, and has been back playing since first of March. Appears to be 100%.

Defense will be the key. When Oregon is "on" they are formidable, but they have been made to look ordinary at times. They absolutely destroyed Stanford in early February, but Tara came back with a totally different defensive game plan in the Pac12 tourney and won by 7.

They also lost back to back games at OreSt and at home to UCLA, but those were the two Hebard was out hurt. UCLA had multiple chances to beat them again in the Pac12 tourney, but missed 1 of 2 FTs that could have won in regulation but instead sent it to OT. In OT, with UCLA up 2 and a minute to go, their coach got T'd up on a noncall which gave Oregon tying FTs and the ball, and they ended up winning by 5.

Good defense might not shut out a great scorer, but the harder they are made to work the more likely they will get frustrated and worn down. We've done it to Samuelson, Carleton, Anigwe and Gustafson.

I have only seen a few Oregon games, but my perception is that they are a finesse team, and probably haven't played a game against a team with our size and physicality. They don't rebound particularly well on either end, which we should use to our advantage. We will have to defend them to the arc and beyond, but I think we have drastically improved in that regard this year. I don't know that they have the players to bang on the post with Brown and Cox, which could be our big advantage. We should rule the boards and have major 2nd chance points. It would be nice if Juicy would have a good day shooting threes, but I don't think that is essential for the win. If Chloe is on with her midrange game, and the posts play their normal game, we win. Didi's recent outburst just gives Oregon one more thing to worry about, and also makes Brown and Cox more dangerous.

Offensively, they can score a lot of points and quickly. With their ability to shoot the 3, no lead is safe until the final buzzer.
Defensively, I'd expect them to pack the paint and help on Kalani and Lauren; they kept a lot of bodies surrounding McCowan v MSU. Chloe and Juicy may get a lot of open looks, so let's hope they're shooting accurately.
Oregon will have a major problem if Hebard or Ionescu get into foul trouble. Hebard is their only elite interior presence, and they just don't have the strength and size to compete with Kalani and Lauren if she'd not on the floor. Ionescu is their offensive creator, and with her on the floor they're elite; without her on the floor they are merely good.

One thing I think needs to be noted, with a team that shoots a lot of threes, the guards finding their person and blocking out quickly on Oregon's misses will be key. Long shots = long rebounds, which negates a little of our underneath strength with regards to rebounding. Playing Iowa State gives us a glimpse into how to approach this game, but Oregon is a bit more versatile and athletic, I believe. Would be interesting to go back and see how Oregon played Mississippi State defensively, with their post centered offense.

Great analysis above.

My thoughts beyond what everyone has said is what makes Ionescu the most dangerous is she loves to get the assists as much as her shot. I think that's where our defense wins. I wouldn't be shocked to see Didi straight shut her down, but she'll get her points, some of them at least.

Our team defense will win this. Oregan has been the team that most concerned me. Not so much anymore. I watched Iowa's game to get into the Elite 8 and then watching exactly what we did to them last night. I don't even really have words. "Dismantle" or "Destroy" doesn't even feel strong enough. Hawkeye Coach in the press conference called it suffocating. That's closer.

We play like that and I'm not at all worried. You know Mulkey will have them ready and they seem to be taking nothing for granted. I acknowledge anything can happen. All 4 teams who made it to the final 4 absolutely deserve to be there.

I think it will take a bad performance by our team coupled with another team playing lights out to beat us.

Defense wins championships.

Oregon defeats Mississippi State

Link for entire article
https://mississippitoday.org/2019/03/31/need-to-blame-somebody-only-one-person-sabrina-ionescu-to-blame-for-states-loss/

Excerpts
"I thought Ionescu made some really tough shots at the end of the shot clock," MSU HC Vic Schaefer said. "That's what great players do. They're going to make shots when your team needs it. I thought she was really hard to guard."

"Ionescu often had two of the best defensive guards in the country - MSU's Jordan Danberry and Jazzmun Holmes - chasing her, dogging her every step. Didn't matter. She hit long-range jumpers and drove to the bucket for others. Yes, she said, she was fueled by the crowd."

"any lack of defense wasn't a lack of effort. MSU played hard, guarded hard. All you can do is get a hand in their face and Oregon made shots all night with hands in the shooter's face."

"Schaefer might have blamed it on the officiating. Officials let the teams play in the first, second and fourth quarters. In the third, for some reason, a light tap became a foul. Teaira McCowan picked up three. But Schaefer wasn't blaming that either, although he sure did yell at the officials a lot."

"Ionescu often had two of the best defensive guards in the country - MSU's Jordan Danberry and Jazzmun Holmes - chasing her, dogging her every step. Didn't matter. She hit long-range jumpers and drove to the bucket for others. Yes, she said, she was fueled by the crowd."

She will be 3,000 miles away from a home court advantage. Yes, there will be a crowd, but not one to energize her. Road trips are not necessarily Oregon's friend.

So you guys think Didi will be guarding Sabrina. What's Kim's philosophy on the screens? Is she going to have Cox/Brown hedge on those or no?

Nm

Nuyoika said:

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So you guys think Didi will be guarding Sabrina. What's Kim's philosophy on the screens? Is she going to have Cox/Brown hedge on those or no?

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That's a good question and will be interesting to see what CKM comes up with. Ionescu and Hebard run the pick and roll to perfection. We will have to match them with stellar defense all the while doing it without picking up too many fouls. Ionescu tends to draw a lot of fouls. We also will need to stay at home on the other shooters.

Mainly, we need to rebound well and run their legs off, hopefully affecting their shots.

Hebard is smaller than Kalani and Lauren, a much harder problem for them to figure out. We should do well on the other end of the court. They aren't known for their defense.

Oregon certainly isn't a team we can take lightly or play poorly against, but if we play our game, we"ll be fine.

Oregon State fan who has posted here before. Give you my take on Oregon, since I have seen this group at Oregon play for 3 consecutive years now. This will be Baylor's toughest opponent they have played in 2 years. Oregon made the elite 8 the two previous years, and, now the FF. What is different about this group is that Sabrina has so much support from other teammates that are each capable of taking over the game. Sabally is a match up nightmare for every opponent, including Cox. Sabally is far quicker than Cox, and if Cox comes out to defend the 3-point line, than Sabally will go around Cox. Sabally can flat out take over a game offensively, and, defensively. Sabally will check Cox, and, as great as Cox is, she hasn't played anyone at 6'4" that is as good as Sabally. Oregon is difficult because they have superior ball handlers who don't succumb to ball pressure: Corzola, and Sabrina handle the ball majority of the time, but Sabally also is very capable ball handler. Corzola can get to the rim at will, as can Sabrina. It has already been pointed out that Oregon is the best 3-point shooting team in the country. Against MSU, they were 13 of 26! Amazing shooters. There have been games when Erin Boley (ND transfer) had 9 x 3-pointers this season. Corzola, Sabrina, Sabally, and Boley are dynamite shooters who need little room to get off a shot. Sabrina, and Ruthy Herbard are the best pick and roll pair in college basketball. So difficult to defend. FYI, Corzola and Hebard are the 2nd best pick and roll pair in college basketball. And finally, the Ducks are playing defense now, they are much tougher than they were the past 2 years. They beat a very tough-minded MSU team, who I thought traded punches with Oregon very well. Oregon was better in the end. I'm not saying Baylor should pack it in and go home. All I'm saying is that this Oregon group is experienced in the NCAA playoffs, and, much better because all 5 players contribute (it seems at all times). I think Baylor is so much improved, and I'm expecting a 4-quarter battle.

LOTRADER said:

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Oregon State fan who has posted here before. Give you my take on Oregon, since I have seen this group at Oregon play for 3 consecutive years now. This will be Baylor's toughest opponent they have played in 2 years. Oregon made the elite 8 the two previous years, and, now the FF. What is different about this group is that Sabrina has so much support from other teammates that are each capable of taking over the game. Sabally is a match up nightmare for every opponent, including Cox. Sabally is far quicker than Cox, and if Cox comes out to defend the 3-point line, than Sabally will go around Cox. Sabally can flat out take over a game offensively, and, defensively. Sabally will check Cox, and, as great as Cox is, she hasn't played anyone at 6'4" that is as good as Sabally. Oregon is difficult because they have superior ball handlers who don't succumb to ball pressure: Corzola, and Sabrina handle the ball majority of the time, but Sabally also is very capable ball handler. Corzola can get to the rim at will, as can Sabrina. It has already been pointed out that Oregon is the best 3-point shooting team in the country. Against MSU, they were 13 of 26! Amazing shooters. There have been games when Erin Boley (ND transfer) had 9 x 3-pointers this season. Corzola, Sabrina, Sabally, and Boley are dynamite shooters who need little room to get off a shot. Sabrina, and Ruthy Herbard are the best pick and roll pair in college basketball. So difficult to defend. FYI, Corzola and Hebard are the 2nd best pick and roll pair in college basketball. And finally, the Ducks are playing defense now, they are much tougher than they were the past 2 years. They beat a very tough-minded MSU team, who I thought traded punches with Oregon very well. Oregon was better in the end. I'm not saying Baylor should pack it in and go home. All I'm saying is that this Oregon group is experienced in the NCAA playoffs, and, much better because all 5 players contribute (it seems at all times). I think Baylor is so much improved, and I'm expecting a 4-quarter battle.

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Thanks for posting. Excellent insights. You REALLY sure you're not a DUCK though......,wasn't a very Beaverish post.....

jumpinjoe said:

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"Ionescu often had two of the best defensive guards in the country - MSU's Jordan Danberry and Jazzmun Holmes - chasing her, dogging her every step. Didn't matter. She hit long-range jumpers and drove to the bucket for others. Yes, she said, she was fueled by the crowd."

She will be 3,000 miles away from a home court advantage. Yes, there will be a crowd, but not one to energize her. Road trips are not necessarily Oregon's friend.

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Gonna have to stop you right there, Didi is better than either of the MSU guards.

Bears +21

LOTRADER said:

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Oregon State fan who has posted here before. Give you my take on Oregon, since I have seen this group at Oregon play for 3 consecutive years now. This will be Baylor's toughest opponent they have played in 2 years. Oregon made the elite 8 the two previous years, and, now the FF. What is different about this group is that Sabrina has so much support from other teammates that are each capable of taking over the game. Sabally is a match up nightmare for every opponent, including Cox. Sabally is far quicker than Cox, and if Cox comes out to defend the 3-point line, than Sabally will go around Cox. Sabally can flat out take over a game offensively, and, defensively. Sabally will check Cox, and, as great as Cox is, she hasn't played anyone at 6'4" that is as good as Sabally. Oregon is difficult because they have superior ball handlers who don't succumb to ball pressure: Corzola, and Sabrina handle the ball majority of the time, but Sabally also is very capable ball handler. Corzola can get to the rim at will, as can Sabrina. It has already been pointed out that Oregon is the best 3-point shooting team in the country. Against MSU, they were 13 of 26! Amazing shooters. There have been games when Erin Boley (ND transfer) had 9 x 3-pointers this season. Corzola, Sabrina, Sabally, and Boley are dynamite shooters who need little room to get off a shot. Sabrina, and Ruthy Herbard are the best pick and roll pair in college basketball. So difficult to defend. FYI, Corzola and Hebard are the 2nd best pick and roll pair in college basketball. And finally, the Ducks are playing defense now, they are much tougher than they were the past 2 years. They beat a very tough-minded MSU team, who I thought traded punches with Oregon very well. Oregon was better in the end. I'm not saying Baylor should pack it in and go home. All I'm saying is that this Oregon group is experienced in the NCAA playoffs, and, much better because all 5 players contribute (it seems at all times). I think Baylor is so much improved, and I'm expecting a 4-quarter battle.

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I'll tell Kim to not bother showing up...

Sabrina is projected by ESPN as the 1st pick in the WNBA draft

BU can't afford lazy passes and missed layups against this team. I expect Oregon to outscore us about 36-9 in threes, so we need a huge advantage in rebounding and scoring in the paint. KB needs to go off for about 25.

Thanks for posting.

Lol

Oregon Ducks will feel like origami ducks after BU defense gets them all twisted around. They will score, but not enough.