Schedule Breakdown: Analyzing Baylor Baseball's Potential Path to the Postseason

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Three weeks ago, Baylor baseball was in the driver’s seat to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 and was featured in all of the midseason mock brackets.

Now, those odds appear much slimmer after a two-week stretch that featured series losses to two of the worst teams in the conference — Houston and Texas Tech — and a midweek loss at home to Texas State, which the Bears previously beat 19-3. Baylor’s RPI reached as high as No. 36 in late March and plummeted to as low as No. 74 by mid-April.

With the season on the line, after losing its series opener to Utah, the Bears (26-14, 8-10) regrouped and won each of the next two games over the Utes, plus a midweek matchup against Houston Christian on Tuesday to keep postseason hopes alive going into the final month of the regular season.

Upcoming Opponents

Before breaking down the remaining schedule, here’s a quick look at the upcoming opponents, plus their record and current RPI (Baylor sits at No. 66 with the 103rd strength of schedule):

• @ TCU (29-12, 12-6): No. 14 RPI
• @ Sam Houston (8-33): No. 235 RPI
• Arizona State (25-15, 11-7): No.  46 RPI
• UT Rio Grande Valley (26-14): No. 34 RPI
• Oklahoma State (18-19, 6-9): No. 59 RPI
• @ UCF (23-17, 6-12): No. 55 RPI

Most games must be treated as “must-win” moving forward, especially the remaining midweek games, which include a trip to Huntsville to face a Sam Houston squad having an abnormally terrible year. However, the really important game is against UT Rio Grande Valley; the Vaqueros are having an impressive season and might make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.

As for the conference series, the good news for Baylor is that these final four matchups don’t look as daunting as they once did. Oklahoma State and UCF have started to tail off as the season continues, but TCU and Arizona State remain formidable opponents.

The Bears can afford to lose the series in Fort Worth but must avoid getting swept. Then, they will return to Waco and need to find a way to win at least four games between the two series against the Cowboys and Sun Devils.

If everything goes as planned, that would set up a crucial final series in Orlando against the Knights in late May. The Bears won’t have a midweek game, so they should have a fully rested bullpen and, by then, UCF might have nothing to play for other than pride. 

To add to its resume, Baylor would need to earn a road series win over UCF and, more than likely, pick up a few wins in Arlington at the Big 12 Tournament.

So You’re Saying There’s A Chance?

You might be asking, ‘How likely is this scenario?’ I’d put the odds around 33%. The damage from the aforementioned two-week slump will probably be too much to overcome, but Baylor has the talent to finish the regular season 9-5 if they put it all together for this final stretch. I think head coach Mitch Thompson’s squad will have to win three of their final four series, and that 33% likelihood probably doubles with a series win in Fort Worth.

We’ve yet to see a weekend when the Bears play three complete games and are solid in every phase: defense, pitching and offense. It’s almost always one or two of the three that are clicking, but you can see the team's potential when all three phases click like they did in the first two games against No. 23 Arizona or the final two against Utah.

In 2021, when Baylor was the first team left out of the NCAA Tournament, the Bears' record was 31-20 (11-13) with the No. 44 RPI and 47th SOS, according to Warren Nolan. 

The bubble changes from season to season, but in the last four years, teams featured in the “Last Four In” had an average RPI of 42nd with the 38th strength of schedule. Meanwhile, teams featured in the “Last Four Out” had an average RPI of 46th with the 82nd strength of schedule.

It’s incredibly tough to predict how much the metrics will change depending on how this final month of the regular season goes. Even if Baylor takes care of business and wins nine or 10 more games, I’m not sure if the strength of schedule would make a massive leap into the top 40, which makes it almost impossible for me to make specific comparisons to previous bubble teams.

As I mentioned above, the Bears have the talent to finish the season strong. However, they’ve given themselves very little room for error, and things outside their control have to fall their way, including the NCAA Tournament having very few bid stealers.

It’s not likely, but it’s still technically possible. There’s a big opportunity starting this weekend in Fort Worth against TCU, but a sweep at the hands of the Horned Frogs might limit Baylor’s only remaining option to winning the conference tournament.

Potential Path to Postseason

• @ TCU (⅓)
• @ Sam Houston (W)
• Oklahoma State (⅔)
• UT Rio Grande Valley (W)
• Arizona State (⅔)
• UCF (⅔)
• Big 12 Tournament (TBD)

Other Baseball Reading

• Thompson's Challenge, Rally Bobcat Ignites Bears in Crucial Bounce-Back Series Win
• Sanders, Kemp Homer as Baylor Routes Houston Christian, 9-1, in Midweek Matchup
• From Struggles to Success: Tyriq Kemp's Journey to Refind His Signature Spark
• The Power of Belief: Will Glatch's Path from Setbacks to Standout Reliever
• Faith, Injury and Hope: The Resilient Return of Hunter Simmons