Baylor Baseball Takes Series over Texas Tech but Bullpen Collapse Clouds Postseason Push

When mapping out Baylor’s potential path to the NCAA Tournament ahead of the Texas Tech series, it was clear that for the Bears to get back to a regional for the first time since 2019, they were going to need some legacy performances on the mound the rest of the way.

Head coach Mitch Thompson got that and more this past weekend as ace Lucas Davenport (RJr.) set the tone in the first game of the series against the Red Raiders with a complete game, 11-punch-out performance, where he allowed just four base knocks and one earned run. En route to an 8-1 victory, Davenport’s going-the-distance marked the first time since 2022 (Kobe Andrade) that a Baylor pitcher hurled a complete game.

Right-hander Zack Wallace (So.) followed Davenport’s dominance with a quality outing of his own in the second game of the series, as he surrendered just two runs and struck out three batters across six frames. Baylor held on to win against a late rally from the Red Raiders, 10-9, giving Wallace his fourth victory of the year.

Then, veteran lefty Ethan Calder (Sr.) took the mound on Sunday to help secure the sweep for the Bears, and while he worked around some early trouble, he settled into a groove and threw up five straight zeroes.

Thompson elected to bring Calder back out for the eighth inning. After issuing a leadoff single, Calder remained in the contest to face Texas Tech’s lefty first baseman, Logan Hughes (Jr.). Against likely Calder’s last batter of the afternoon, Hughes golfed a game-tying, two-run homer over the right field wall, shattering all the momentum that the Bears had built up across the weekend to that point.

Following Calder’s exit, Baylor’s bullpen blew the game wide open, letting Texas Tech, which had been on a nine-game losing streak in conference play, sneak out of Waco by salvaging the series with an 8-3 win.

It’s quite unfortunate for Baylor how things played out, considering just how incredible a job the weekend rotation did against the Red Raiders, who entered the series atop the conference in several key hitting statistics, including batting average (.351).

“Ethan threw the ball exceptionally well, and I left him out there too long,” Thompson said post-game. “I’m trying to milk every pitch out of him. He wanted to be out there, so I love that, but I’ve got to make better decisions about who we’re using, when and how. Sometimes I don’t make the right ones for sure, but our guys are out there fighting and competing.”

Thompson later added, “At the end of the day, we won the series, and I’m proud of that. I wish we could have gotten this third one, because it was within reach. We felt like it was within reach, but it wasn’t meant to be.”

The loss on Sunday also overshadowed some history that was made in the seventh inning as first baseman Tyce Armstrong’s (RSr.) game-tying solo shot tied Charley Carter’s single-season program record of 21 home runs.

“It was great to see Tyce do that, and I’m glad he did it here at home to tie it,” Thompson said. “I heard from Charley today. He said if Tyce hits it, he wants to get on the phone and call him. That’s really cool. I’m proud of Tyce. It was fun to see that happen.”

Armstrong has been on another level across his last five games, as he’s 12-for-19 at the plate, with 11 extra-base hits — seven of which have been homers — and has totaled 12 RBIs in that span.

“It’s really fun, first and foremost,” Armstrong said of his recent hot streak. “It’s a big confidence booster whenever you can go to the plate and know that you can compete with anything anyone throws.”

Although there could be some quibbles here and there, for the most part, the Bears played pretty good baseball for most of the weekend, but their downfall on Sunday and almost on Saturday, as Baylor sweated out a 10-9 win, was their bullpen.

While the weekend rotation surrendered six earned runs across 22 frames, the bullpen allowed 12 runs and 17 hits in just five innings. Usually reliable pitchers like Caleb Bunch (3 ER, 5 H), Charlie Atkinson (3 ER, 3 H), RJ Ruais (ER, 3 H), Brayden Bergman (2 ER, 3 H) and Grayson Murry (3 ER, 3 H) all had weekends to forget, and no matter who Thompson put on the mound, they seemed to struggle mightily.

Although it’s been relatively solid this season, amidst injuries, Baylor’s bullpen has taken a major hit in recent weeks. The slump started in the second game of the series against rival TCU, where the Horned Frogs overcame a late 4-0 deficit off Bunch, and since then, it’s been mostly downhill, as both Arizona State and Texas Tech roughed up the bullpen.

These guys are in a funk right now, and if things don’t turn around, it’s gonna be impossible for Baylor to win the majority of its remaining games, regardless of how well the weekend rotation or lineup performs.

Arguably, the most painful thing about letting Sunday’s finale slip away is that a single home loss to Texas Tech dropped the Bears roughly 10 spots in RPI, whereas the previous two wins barely registered, due to the reeling Red Raiders (23-24, 7-17) being a Q4 opponent.

Now, Baylor sits at 66th in RPI and has a non-existent margin for error the rest of the way, as the Bears still have to face Texas State on Tuesday night, followed by a series against UCF and Utah. There’s no crystal ball to say what exactly the formula needs to be for Baylor to get back onto the bubble going into the Big 12 Tournament, but it sure feels like five or six wins, at a minimum, and that appears like it’ll be a really tall task.

There’s obviously been a ton of talk about Thompson’s job security, and that’ll be discussed plenty in the days and weeks to come, but first and foremost, there’s an opportunity for the Bears (25-22; 11-13 Big 12) on Tuesday night at 6 p.m. in San Marcos to get a boost with a win over a Texas State (27-21; 10-14 Sun Belt) squad, which is similarly on the bubble.

Following that contest, the NCAA Tournament odds will be reevaluated later this week, but in the meantime, if Baylor wants to make a late postseason push, it’ll need its rotation to stay dominant, its lineup to keep producing and its bullpen to get back on track and hold its end of the bargain.