Baylor Football's 2026 Odds Reveal One Thing: Nobody Knows What to Expect

Two of our resident experts — Colt Barber and Grayson Grundhoefer — answer some of the top questions surrounding head coach Dave Aranda and the Baylor program as spring football wraps up.

Vegas recently released its odds to win the Big 12 Championship in 2026. Unsurprisingly, Texas Tech (EVEN) was the favorite, while Utah (+600) and BYU (+650) weren’t far behind. It’s going to be a wide-open league, per usual, and the Bears had the ninth-best odds (+3500) and were sandwiched between rivals TCU and Oklahoma State. Do you think Baylor’s too high, too low or just right?

Colt: This is basically telling me that no one really knows what to expect from Baylor, which is also my mindset after the spring. The ninth-best odds in the Big 12 mean Baylor is viewed as the “best team in the bottom half of the league.” The Bears are right in the middle, and with an expected 2-1 non-con record, will be battling for a bowl game. 

So give me the just right. But it’s not really about getting it right; the underlying fact is that it’s year seven under Dave Aranda, and no one can look at the roster and really make a determination on the outlook of the team. Two really good coordinators, some solid individual talent on both sides of the ball, and a fan base just ready for consistency to support, but everyone is in wait-and-see mode. 

I’m not ready to compare Baylor to other teams in the league, primarily because Baylor has to show it can control what it can control first. Even in a promising 2024 season, there were major question marks lingering. In 2025, those question marks were still there, and in many ways, had grown larger. Maybe flipping the script was just what was needed, but that’s why this team is viewed as middle of the pack by the experts. We’re sitting this close and have little confidence that the hailmary will work, so I don’t expect external confidence either. 

Grayson: This was a fun question to examine and one that I was thinking about a lot when I posted the standings on the message board. I think the best way to answer this is to look at the programs in tiers. I personally think Colorado is going to be the worst team in the league by a mile, but Iowa State, West Virginia, Cincy, UCF and Kansas are all programs I don’t expect to be in bowl games this upcoming season, or if they do, a 6-6 record feels like the best they will achieve. That may sound harsh, but I have a ton of reservations about all of these programs for a variety of reasons, whether it is a new coach, lack of talent or a trend in the wrong direction.

After that group, I see a big tier that includes Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona State and TCU. That means I do think Baylor is in the right spot. This group is full of question marks at key positions or coaching changes. I think this group has the upside to potentially come through with a team that makes a leap into the Big 12 Championship conversation if everything comes together. There is a lot of upside in this tier, but the floor is very low for this range as well, which keeps them in this tier.

I have Houston and Arizona alone in the next tier. They feel like Baylor in 2024 because they return a lot, but is it a good thing? Was last season fool's gold? Personally, I feel better about Houston than I do about Arizona. The Cougars poured a ton of money into the program this offseason to build a contender, and while I don’t think they will win the league, they certainly feel like one that could finish inside the top three this season, as their NIL budget is right around that level for the 2026 season. Zona feels most similar to 2024 Baylor, and I think regression is coming.

I believe Texas Tech, BYU and Utah are in the same tier for now, but if Tech gets Sorsby back, they will pretty clearly be the favorite to win it and be in a tier alone. All three have strong NIL and program momentum, plus they should have the best OL/DL play in the conference. We saw that hold them at the top of the league in 2025, and I think that will be similar in 2026.