Mike Fisher projections
Fish's Cowboys Game-by-Game Predictions: 'The Optimist's Club'Let's allow a pinch of optimism and predict how the Cowboys might do in 2026. Maybe. Possible. Game-by-game analysis .
Mike FisherFRISCO - The 2026 schedule is now released, and once the Dallas Cowboys lose even one game, the haters will hoot and the critics will crow and the football world will to some seem like it's coming to an end.
But …
Why not take an early offseason turn at optimism?
I'll do so here, with the proper tone. So don't hold me to these and don't go betting on 'em, either. Take them in the proper context, which is …
What if the Cowboys season actually … goes well?
So here goes. but although it's early, let's allow a pinch of optimism and predict how the Cowboys might do in 2026. Maybe. Game-by-game ….
Week 1 - at NYGThe Cowboys are 11-1 all-time in season openers against the New York Giants, and those victories come in an average margin of 19 points. This will be the eighth Week 1 meeting between the two teams in the last 15 seasons.
Even though this will be Dallas' fourth season-opener on the road, they are already favoted by 2.5 points and I say they get the job done to start 1-0.
Result: Win - 1-0Week 2 - vs. WASThe Commanders come to town hoping Jayden Daniels can enjoy more injury luck than last season. Like Dallas, Washington has invested loads into a remodeled defense, which now stars linebackers Sonny Styles (the No. 7 overall draft pick) and Leo Chenal, defensive end Odafe Oweh, edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson and safety Nick Cross.
But for Dallas, their defensive reinforcements - like Swiss-army knife rookie Caleb Downs and safety Jalen Thompson - make an impact after meshing in Week 1.
It's a win, but I can see this one being neck-and-neck, with lots of nail-biting at AT&T Stadium.
Result: Win - 2-0Week 3 - vs. BAL (in Rio de Janeiro)This begins the toughest part of the schedule for the Cowboys travel-wise ... and potentially competition-wise, too, if the awkward sleep schedules play a factor.
Maracan Stadium will host the NFL's first-ever Rio game, and the first the Cowboys will be a part of since beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-17 in London in 2014.
This, too, could be a shootout between two of the most high-powered offenses from last season (Dallas through the air and Baltimore on the ground), but I say Dallas takes the momentum internationally.
Result: Win - 3-0 (See? Isn't optimism fun?)Week 4 - at HOUIt's a quick turnaround flight down to Houston, and this Texans defense is no joke. They're also led by the newly-minted highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, Will Anderson.
The Cowboys in 2025 gained the second-most yards per game, but the Texans allowed the least last season. It'll be just as much of a battle mentally as physically for Dallas, which is playing its third game away from Arlington while Houston will be playing its third game at home.
Result: Loss - 3-1Week 5 - vs TB (Thursday Night Football)We're now at the tail end of a three-games-in-12-days stretch, and although the Houston loss might light a fire under the Cowboys' belly going back home, it'll be another tough turnaround to face.
I have this one as one of the more crucial games of the season for Dallas. It's winnable. Win it.
Result: Win - 4-1Week 6 - at GB (Sunday Night Football)The second of a trio of night games in a row could be a chilly visit to see Micah Parsons at Lambeau Field (though the weather could've been worse).
But will the All-Pro Cowboy-turned-Packer be fully recovered from his torn ACL?
Parsons is reportedly on track to return at some point during the middle of the season, so while Week 1 may not be in the cards, Week 6 certainly could be. A factor … especially knowing how much motivation he'll enter with after last year's 40-40 draw in Arlington.
The NFL penning it in a primetime slot could be all the suggestion you need, but this is also the return of Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary to a field they used to call home. That allows the Cowboys' defensive line to outperform a Packers unit that may still be without Parsons or just easing him back into the mold.
Either way, it's not enough for Dallas to scrape together a rare victory in Green Bay.
Result: Loss - 4-2Week 7 - at PHI (Monday Night Football)The first of two primetime matchups with the arch nemesis Eagles will be a big one. We'll know a lot about the potential winner of the NFC East after this game and how each team sits at this point in the season.
While it remains a mystery entering OTAs, A.J. Brown may or may not be in Philadelphia anymore. Still, the Eagles will have first-round receiver Makai Lemon and star running back Saquon Barkley.
The Cowboys drop this one on the road.
Result: Loss - 4-3Week 8 - vs. ARIDallas' defensive line play can't look at the meeting with the Cardinals as a pushover game, no matter Arizona's record or the gauntlet of a remaining schedule.
They'll deploy explosive No. 3 overall pick Jeremiyah Love and newcomer Tyler Allgeier in the backfield.
Through the air, they still have Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, but surely Jacoby Brissett can't have the same stellar showing against Dallas as last year, right?
The Cowboys will likely be favored here, but it's rather remarkable that they've somehow lost four in a row to Arizona. That changes.
Result: Win - 5-3Week 9 - at INDDaniel Jones will be rehabbing a torn Achilles from late last season, meaning the first eight weeks could be a rollercoaster under center for the AFC's most surprising contender until the midway point, when things promptly went downhill for Indy in 2025.
The Cowboys suffered a similar fate of sorts, but they'll finish the front nine in 2026 with a two-game streak.
Result: Win - 6-3Week 10 - vs. SFDallas hasn't beaten San Francisco since 2020, and with a potential wild card berth or division title on the line, the Cowboys use home-field advantage to take a win here.
There's also no telling what the Niners personnel could look like. They've had the worst injury luck in the league recently, including star tight end George Kittle, who ruptured his Achilles in the most recent playoffs. More bad luck for them? That's optimism!
Result: Win - 7-3Week 11 - vs. TENLikely the only true "gimme" game on the Cowboys' schedule. But who knows? Maybe Cam Ward has found his stroke in Year 2 and picks things up.
I still have it as a double-digit Dallas win as momentum builds entering the holidays.
Result: Win 8-3Week 12 - vs. PHI (Thanksgiving)At full strength, the Cowboys should be able to contend here, but a lot will depend on the competitiveness of these teams' first meeting a month earlier.
This is also the beginning of a mini gauntlet with two NFC powers coming up and the bye sandwiched in between. I can see the threat of the Cowboys getting ahead of themselves here, but Prescott squeaks by with another home win over a division foe.
Dallas has also won four straight Thanksgiving Day games, three of which have come against the two other NFC East teams. The trend continues.
Result: Win 9-3Week 13 - at SEA (Monday Night Football)A trip to face the defending Super Bowl champs will always be a daunting task, but the Cowboys will have a shot here if they bring a win streak into a matchup with a potentially regressed offense.
The loss of Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III will likely weigh heavily on the Seahawks, but remember, their defense was on another level all throughout the playoffs. They lost some pieces, but it's still the calling card of their team under Mike Macdonald.
Seattle also picked up another ex-Cowboy in Dante Fowler Jr., who follows the path and recommendation from DeMarcus Lawrence. Does that mean the Seahawks win the Super Bowl again?
That'll be settled later, for now, the 12s get the better of Dallas.
Result: Loss - 9-4Week 14 - BYEWeek 15 - at LARDallas could come out lagging after the bye and a long flight to the West Coast. How will they perform against reigning league MVP Matthew Stafford in what could be his final game against his hometown team?
It's a nail-biter that slightly goes the way of the home team in this prediction.
Result: Loss 9-5Week 16 - vs. JAXJacksonville broke the internet with the announcement that
Trevor Lawrence cut his flowy blonde locks. Seven months later, has he grown it back? Kept it short? And, on a serious note, does it have any effect on him as a quarterback against this new-look Cowboys secondary?
The Jags were a playoff team last year and very well could be one again by this point, but Dallas rebounds from the rut.
Result: Win - 10-5Week 17 - vs. NYGThe Cowboys' late-season collapse knocked them out of playoff contention a year ago, but this is a favorable enough schedule to end 2026 with revenge.
Although they sweep the Giants, pressing too much with a potential wild-card berth in sight could knock Dallas off its game before one last game on the road.
Result: Win - 11-5Week 18 - at WASDaniels likely has re-emerged as one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the game if he's stayed healthy. In the past, the Cowboys' defense against rushing QBs has been suspect, and the linebacker core hasn't changed this offseason enough for me to question much change.
I hope I'm wrong by the time we get to Week 18, but even with a loss (though it could cough over the division), Dallas will find its way back into the NFC postseason.
Result: LossFINAL RECORD: 11-6 But that's OK …Too optimistic? I know. I know. But that is the fun of the exercise. And go back and scan it again. Is there anything here that's foolishly unrealistic? I think not! (Optimistically speaking.)
"A day without sunshine is like, you know, night." — Steve Martin
