The ACC schools all want out of the ACC & Virginia and North Carolina are set to be an expansion battleground for the SEC & Big Ten. Dive in: https://t.co/rzGk2kv65M

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) July 19, 2022

We shall see. I'm not sure who would move the needle for either conference currently set to be sitting at 16, except ND. At the point of those two conferences sitting at 16 someone needs an astronomical media value to increase each of the current 16's income.

I'll believe this when someone challenges the GOR deal in court. Until then, this is just silly speculation.

bear2be2 said:

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I'll believe this when someone challenges the GOR deal in court. Until then, this is just silly speculation.

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Presumably, schools could file to seek a declaratory judgment, asking the court to rule the GOR is void (or voidable). Or at least that the exit fees are not permitted.

This is a safer legal course that breaking away from the ACC and taking the risk of having to pay exorbitant damages or exit fees.


(Yes, I'm a lawyer.)

Well, lets load up the east with VT, MIami, Lville & one other. We are better off going east.

ESPN and FOX will decide it.

I can't see the UVA and UNC wine and cheese crowd fitting in with the SEC. Their alumni would probably prefer the Big10.

Let's just say we could pick off 4-6 of the best P12 teams, then get some ACC teams that recognize it may be too crowded in the SEC and aren't wanted by the Big10. It would be weird, but could be really cool.

BearlyBeloved said:

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bear2be2 said:

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I'll believe this when someone challenges the GOR deal in court. Until then, this is just silly speculation.

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Presumably, schools could file to seek a declaratory judgment, asking the court to rule the GOR is void (or voidable). Or at least that the exit fees are not permitted.

This is a safer legal course that breaking away from the ACC and taking the risk of having to pay exorbitant damages or exit fees.


(Yes, I'm a lawyer.)

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As a lawyer, do you see any reasonable grounds on which these contracts could be voided? I saw another lawyer say they're not ironclad, but they're strong enough to deter most from challenging the issue in court.

As a layperson, I struggle to see how a mutually agreed upon and signed contract can be voided simply because the terms look worse for one party or another over time, but I obviously don't know all of the ins and outs of contract law.

I am sorry to keep harping on this, but the GoR is not a contract. It is a term assignment of intellectual property. The assignment or conveyance to the conference has been fully completed, so there is no contract to be enforced or avoided. The effect of the previous grant of rights has nothing to do with enforcing or breaking an ongoing contract.

And, asserting a declaratory judgment claim that the previous assignment was somehow void does not necessarily speed up the litigation process. If there are fact issues involved - and there almost certainly are - it will take months or years to fully resolve the issue.

In short, because the GoR does not involve the enforcement or breach of a contract, it is extremely difficult to undo. There is a reason UT and OU have not done anything legally to try to avoid the GoR, and a reason Clemson is still in the ACC and not the SEC.

And they were all so happy and proud right after they got it in place.

Indeed. It also nicely steps around all of the sovereign immunity issues. Pretty well done.

Potential, not necessarily Probable, Interest by the B1G or SEC
(Clemson, FSU, UNC, Miami, UVA)

Not any more attractive than the Big 12 schools to TV execs
(Virginia Tech, Louisville, Pitt, NC State, Georgia Tech)

Have nots
Wake Forest, Duke (sorry, this ain't about basketball), Syracuse, BC




*ND obviously whatever it wants to do

tcbear said:

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I am sorry to keep harping on this, but the GoR is not a contract. It is a term assignment of intellectual property. The assignment or conveyance to the conference has been fully completed, so there is no contract to be enforced or avoided. The effect of the previous grant of rights has nothing to do with enforcing or breaking an ongoing contract.

And, asserting a declaratory judgment claim that the previous assignment was somehow void does not necessarily speed up the litigation process. If there are fact issues involved - and there almost certainly are - it will take months or years to fully resolve the issue.

In short, because the GoR does not involve the enforcement or breach of a contract, it is extremely difficult to undo. There is a reason UT and OU have not done anything legally to try to avoid the GoR, and a reason Clemson is still in the ACC and not the SEC.

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I hate to break this to you, but an "assignment" IS a form of contract.

What is the conference dissolves, like they were hoping would happen to the Big 12? (Assume 8 or so teams line up a landing spot they like among B1G, SEC and Big 12 and all want to leave. Wouldn't the conference just dissolve, and therefore, there's no GOR because there's no conference)

Are you serious Bearly? Surely you are not an attorney

tcbear said:

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Are you serious Bearly? Surely you are not an attorney

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I am serious. And don't call me Shirley.

LagunaBear said:

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What is the conference dissolves, like they were hoping would happen to the Big 12? (Assume 8 or so teams line up a landing spot they like among B1G, SEC and Big 12 and all want to leave. Wouldn't the conference just dissolve, and therefore, there's no GOR because there's no conference)

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If the Big 12 can snag a couple teams from them, especially Oregon, Washington & Utah, then the Pac 12 is toast. Cal May very well end football completely while some of the others might end up in the Mountain West or some other non-P5 conference. It might end up helping Gonzaga have a stronger conference for basketball!

Laguna, if the conference dissolves, then during the wind-up or dissolution process the conference will re-convey the rights back to the member schools as a part of the winding up of the conference entity. Hence, the grant or conveyance from the member schools is fully effective or completed until either a) the end of the term of the assignment; or b) the dissolution of

Clemson, Free Shoes U, Miami and Louisville would be a better fit monetarily for the XII. No hesitation about any of them dragging down the per team payouts. That would give the XII, SEC and B1G 16 teams each, or 48 total competing for 12 playoff spots.

The XII should look at spinning off its basketball conference so that schools like Duke, NC State, etc. can be included.

The hoops side of the XII could be expanded to 20 or more schools who have marketable teams that can negotiate rights under a separate contract.

Wouldn't be surprised if some ACC members are planning something to get out of their GOR. The power schools got a bad deal and are inching to find a back door.

If the ACC expands, it opens Pandora's box.

I'm not sure any of them are valuable enough to expand the pie for the SEC or BiG. Are y'all suggesting they want to blow their conference up to get into the XII? I'm not sure about that one.

PartyBear said:

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I'm not sure any of them are valuable enough to expand the pie for the SEC or BiG. Are y'all suggesting they want to blow their conference up to get into the XII? I'm not sure about that one.

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Clemson is a solid lock for the SEC. If it's not noticed by now, it's every team to itself. FSU/UNC/UVA is up for debate but money wise, they're going to be behind the Big 12 And 2x-2.5x behind the B10/SEC in 2 years.

BylrFan said:

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PartyBear said:

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I'm not sure any of them are valuable enough to expand the pie for the SEC or BiG. Are y'all suggesting they want to blow their conference up to get into the XII? I'm not sure about that one.

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Clemson is a solid lock for the SEC. If it's not noticed by now, it's every team to itself. FSU/UNC/UVA is up for debate but money wise, they're going to be behind the Big 12 And double behind the B10/SEC.

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I wouldn't be quite so sure. I think it's likely that Clemson and Florida State end up in the SEC, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

Brand-wise, Clemson is closer to Oregon than Texas, Oklahoma or USC, and this is largely borne out in the ratings numbers.

Clemson only drew an average of 1.74 million viewers per game last year. That's a really good number. But it's not necessarily a must add for a league that will need to them to bring in $100-plus million in added revenue to increase the conference's per-school value.

If Clemson can get back to being a perennial title contender, that viewership number will go up -- they averaged a more blue blood-like 2.67 million viewers from 2015-19. But the gap between those numbers shows the difference between a Clemson and a Texas, Oklahoma or Notre Dame, which will draw 2-plus million viewers in their bad years. Clemson has a higher ceiling than most, but its viewership -- like Oregon's and most other schools -- is still relatively dependent on its on-field performance.

bear2be2 said:

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BylrFan said:

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PartyBear said:

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I'm not sure any of them are valuable enough to expand the pie for the SEC or BiG. Are y'all suggesting they want to blow their conference up to get into the XII? I'm not sure about that one.

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Clemson is a solid lock for the SEC. If it's not noticed by now, it's every team to itself. FSU/UNC/UVA is up for debate but money wise, they're going to be behind the Big 12 And double behind the B10/SEC.

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I wouldn't be quite so sure. I think it's likely that Clemson and Florida State end up in the SEC, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

Brand-wise, Clemson is closer to Oregon than Texas, Oklahoma or USC, and this is largely borne out in the ratings numbers.

Clemson only drew an average of 1.74 million viewers per game last year. That's a really good number. But it's not necessarily a must add for a league that will need to them to bring in $100-plus million in added revenue to increase the conference's per-school value.

If Clemson can get back to being a perennial title contender, that viewership number will go up -- they averaged a more blue blood-like 2.67 million viewers from 2015-19. But the gap between those numbers shows the difference between a Clemson and a Texas, Oklahoma or Notre Dame, which will draw 2-plus million viewers in their bad years. Clemson has a higher ceiling than most, but its viewership -- like Oregon's and most other schools -- is still relatively dependent on its on-field performance.

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Clemson will get better matchups and bigger ratings draw by playing Ohio State,USC,Michigan, Penn State or Texas,OU, Bama, Georgia + others compared to what they have scheduled now.

It really doesn't matter about team performance much, just look at UT this past decade. But lucrative matchups are key with Clemson being one of ESPN's favorites.

Even to the point of Dabo becoming self aware

https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-football/story/swinney-on-conference-realignment-most-people-know-where-college-football-is-heading-20542

BylrFan said:

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bear2be2 said:

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BylrFan said:

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PartyBear said:

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I'm not sure any of them are valuable enough to expand the pie for the SEC or BiG. Are y'all suggesting they want to blow their conference up to get into the XII? I'm not sure about that one.

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Clemson is a solid lock for the SEC. If it's not noticed by now, it's every team to itself. FSU/UNC/UVA is up for debate but money wise, they're going to be behind the Big 12 And double behind the B10/SEC.

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I wouldn't be quite so sure. I think it's likely that Clemson and Florida State end up in the SEC, but I wouldn't call it a lock.

Brand-wise, Clemson is closer to Oregon than Texas, Oklahoma or USC, and this is largely borne out in the ratings numbers.

Clemson only drew an average of 1.74 million viewers per game last year. That's a really good number. But it's not necessarily a must add for a league that will need to them to bring in $100-plus million in added revenue to increase the conference's per-school value.

If Clemson can get back to being a perennial title contender, that viewership number will go up -- they averaged a more blue blood-like 2.67 million viewers from 2015-19. But the gap between those numbers shows the difference between a Clemson and a Texas, Oklahoma or Notre Dame, which will draw 2-plus million viewers in their bad years. Clemson has a higher ceiling than most, but its viewership -- like Oregon's and most other schools -- is still relatively dependent on its on-field performance.

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Clemson will get better matchups and bigger ratings draw by playing Ohio State,USC,Michigan, Penn State or Texas,OU, Bama, Georgia + others compared to what they have scheduled now.

It really doesn't matter about team performance much, just look at UT this past decade. But lucrative matchups are key with Clemson being one of ESPN's favorites.

Even to the point of Dabo becoming self aware

https://www.tigernet.com/clemson-football/story/swinney-on-conference-realignment-most-people-know-where-college-football-is-heading-20542

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My point is that Clemson's matchups only draw blue blood ratings when they're a national title contender.

When they're not, they draw really good ratings, but not the type you need to consistently draw to add $100-plus million in value to a league like the SEC.

The thing that makes Texas, OU, USC, Notre Dame, etc., special is that their brands draw 2 million or more viewers regardless of performance (USC in 2021 was an exception, but there are a lot of factors involved in their dip). As good a program as Clemson is, its ratings are still largely dependent on the quality of their team.

In that way, Clemson is more like Oregon (and most other quality Division I Power 5 programs) than the brands most recently added to the SEC and Big Ten. Clemson has a higher ceiling than most non-blue bloods, but how far from that ceiling will that program fall if they start averaging three losses a year instead of one?

Honestly UT or OU draw like 1.4 to 1.6 million viewers on average on their own. Remember part of the viewers are fans of the other team. Yes sometimes 2 million are UT etc fans but there are BU games with better ratings than a UT or OU game.

2022 ACC Media Days: What to expect from Clemson, Miami and outlook amid conference realignment https://t.co/BnPjajfmEh pic.twitter.com/1NYF2wpknp

— College Football (@CollegeFootball) July 19, 2022

ACC commissioner Jim Phillips: "I don't expect us in September when we get together to line up and announce a new CFP structure."
There is no incentive for SEC to act on CFP post-2026 before Aug. 2, 2024, when the Pac-12 could disintegrate.

— James Crepea (@JamesCrepea) July 20, 2022

[url=https://twitter.com/emleiker/status/1549756480479526918?s=21&t=2StegYhm3ZED3raDbmkszw]

Phillips talking about the "two Pac-12 schools" moving to the Big 10. Says while the ACC is strong, they're constantly exploring options.

"All options must be carefully evaluated."

— emily leiker (@emleiker) July 20, 2022

Jim Phillips on rumors of Pac 12 teams coming to the ACC: "While the ACC is strong, we will continue to evaluate all options that will further strengthen our conference."

— Joe Marino (@TheJoeMarino) July 20, 2022

[/url]

It will be so fun to watch these "major powers" devolve into perennial losers when they're all in the same conference. Watch their ratings take a nose dive when that happens.

BearlyBeloved said:

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It will be so fun to watch these "major powers" devolve into perennial losers when they're all in the same conference. Watch their ratings take a nose dive when that happens.

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Been wondering about that myself. We've already seen UT with half a empty stadium when they're not winning. What happens when half of those "name brands" aren't winning like they used to? It's only been a couple years since the ESPN layoffs.

chriscbear said:

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Honestly UT or OU draw like 1.4 to 1.6 million viewers on average on their own. Remember part of the viewers are fans of the other team. Yes sometimes 2 million are UT etc fans but there are BU games with better ratings than a UT or OU game.

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Brent Venables called out Oklahoma football fans to make the 2022 Spring Game a great atmosphere, and they did just that.

A hyped-up crowd of 75,360 strong showed up and out at the Palace not for a regular season game, but a spring game. It was the largest spring game attendance in the country, and easily the largest ever to attend an OU spring game.

They'll never have to worry about viewership and I have never seen UT's stadium "half empty" as someone posted above. To argue otherwise is crazy.

Clemson and FSU to the SEC seems like a no brainer in future realignment.

I actually think UW and Stanford make more sense for future B10 realignment. But could be UVA and UNC I guess.

At that point, you've probably gotten as big as you can as a conference and there aren't a lot of value drivers left. The point in picking off schools is more value with better matchups, not just to get bigger.

Then you've got some combination of the remaining conferences.

With a 12 team playoff, this effectively ends up being like a smaller version of the NCAA tourney. In any given year, you've got something like 4 teams from SEC, 3 teams from B10, couple each from B12 and ACC and one from P12.

I actually don't think we're going superconfernces in their own league. It really doesn't make any sense and isn't making the superconferences much more money. They are maxing out with regular season blockbusters. Another team in the playoff is probably not going to offset higher viewership with cross conference matchups. And invariably, people are going to be complaining that the 5th SEC team is not as good as a non-superconference team that isn't allowed in. In other words, do you want to see Bama v Ole Miss repeat or Bama v Cincy?

I do think the highest level of CFB leaves the NCAA, but it's basically all the current power conferences and maybe even some G5s.

Aliceinbubbleland said:

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chriscbear said:

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Honestly UT or OU draw like 1.4 to 1.6 million viewers on average on their own. Remember part of the viewers are fans of the other team. Yes sometimes 2 million are UT etc fans but there are BU games with better ratings than a UT or OU game.

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Brent Venables called out Oklahoma football fans to make the 2022 Spring Game a great atmosphere, and they did just that.

A hyped-up crowd of 75,360 strong showed up and out at the Palace not for a regular season game, but a spring game. It was the largest spring game attendance in the country, and easily the largest ever to attend an OU spring game.

They'll never have to worry about viewership and I have never seen UT's stadium "half empty" as someone posted above. To argue otherwise is crazy.

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In 2014, Texas Memorial Stadium was half empty in the 4th quarter while Baylor was giving them a total shellacking. We won 28-7 & it was a shutout with 3 minutes left. My big regret from that game is that I didn't take photos of that near empty Stadium. It was beautiful!!

I'm not sure y'all realize how high the media value has to be in order to raise the current pay of each current member and immediate future member of the the big 2 when each of the 16 members of both conferences will be making about 100 million a year. A 17th new member would have to have a 200 million value just to give the current 16 a 500k per year raise. ( A tiny amount for what we are talking about and not really worth it). That is an incredibly high bar. I dont think anyone not already in those conferences besides ND does that.

historian said:

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Aliceinbubbleland said:

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chriscbear said:

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Honestly UT or OU draw like 1.4 to 1.6 million viewers on average on their own. Remember part of the viewers are fans of the other team. Yes sometimes 2 million are UT etc fans but there are BU games with better ratings than a UT or OU game.

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Brent Venables called out Oklahoma football fans to make the 2022 Spring Game a great atmosphere, and they did just that.

A hyped-up crowd of 75,360 strong showed up and out at the Palace not for a regular season game, but a spring game. It was the largest spring game attendance in the country, and easily the largest ever to attend an OU spring game.

They'll never have to worry about viewership and I have never seen UT's stadium "half empty" as someone posted above. To argue otherwise is crazy.

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In 2014, Texas Memorial Stadium was half empty in the 4th quarter while Baylor was giving them a total shellacking. We won 28-7 & it was a shutout with 3 minutes left. My big regret from that game is that I didn't take photos of that near empty Stadium. It was beautiful!!

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Yes but the implication was half empty all the time. Most stadiums are half empty by 4th quarter unless it is a tight, meaningful game and even then some are half empty.