WHICH school will be first to jump the PAC-12 for the BIG-12? And WHEN?

(Tiebreaker goes to whoever is closest to the hour and day of the official announcement.)

Prize is a 50-yard-line seat at a UCLA home game. Value=$1.

Colorado comes back to the Big 12. They make the announcement at 10am Thursday Sept 1, 2022

Colorado Aug 1- 4.

McCavebear said:

---

Colorado comes back to the Big 12. They make the announcement at 10am Thursday Sept 1, 2022

---

Noted. Got you down.

chriscbear said:

---

Colorado Aug 1- 4.

---

Okay. Duly recorded.

I think Colorado is the first to move (morning of Aug. 5), followed shortly after by Arizona (later that same day). Those two know the precarious situations they're in and are the less likely than their peers to tie their athletic futures to the whims and desires of Oregon and Washington.

After CU and Zona we stop unless Oregon and UW at that point say screw this there is no point in being the kings of a conf potentially for the foreseeable future where about half of it is WSU, Oregon St, Boise SMU and Fresno, and go ahead and submit applications.

I will say Colorado and Arizona, but it won't be until next summer.

DST said:

---

I will say Colorado and Arizona, but it won't be until next summer.

---

Meantime, 4-thousand new rumors will sprout, from people claiming they have an infallible inside source.

BearlyBeloved said:

---

DST said:

---

I will say Colorado and Arizona, but it won't be until next summer.

---

Meantime, 4-thousand new rumors will sprout, from people claiming they have an infallible inside source.

---

Did you get "4-thousand new rumors" from an infallible inside source?

57Bear said:

---

BearlyBeloved said:

---

DST said:

---

I will say Colorado and Arizona, but it won't be until next summer.

---

Meantime, 4-thousand new rumors will sprout, from people claiming they have an infallible inside source.

---

Did you get "4-thousand new rumors" from an infallible inside source?

---

If you give them time, they will come.

Oregon 7/29

Phil Knight is proposing a new PAC 12 with some new additions. SMU would have to pony up a bunch of guarantees for other schools and they might do it. However, few PAC 12 schools trust Phil Knight, but there is a real culture difference between the West Coast and Big 12 territory that PAC 12 schools don't want anything to do with. Even Colorado fans show little interest in playing in the Big 12.

I don't see more than two schools be ingadded if that. It won't be until spring, 2023.

Why would the Big 12 accept Colorado back? They certainly expressed their distain toward us when they left the conference for the pac12. I don't see an advantage taking them back. I like the idea of Arizona joining.

This is all money driven it has nothing to do with culture or whether someone has been in the conference before etc. it is strictly about who makes money for the current members of the new XII and any additions and who makes the most money for them. That is all that is considered.

robertr18 said:

---

Why would the Big 12 accept Colorado back? They certainly expressed their distain toward us when they left the conference for the pac12. I don't see an advantage taking them back. I like the idea of Arizona joining.

---

To be fair, it is a totally different picture when UT is not part of the conference. Sort of like leaving a party you like when you find out that one kid has an active contagious disease. Once that kid leaves, the party is enjoyable again.

Fact. Most, if not all of these teams that left, left because of UT, and UT alone. I hope the SEC enjoys the cancer they are bringing into their league. They may think they have a cure for the cancer, but it will mutate and potentially be just as deadly as before.

Nothing personal. It's just bidness.

CU can help us. We can help CU.

It's a match made in the locker room.

Interesting comments, but where are your predictions?

If your question is solely related to 2022, then the correct answer is 0.

If there are any changes in conference affiliation of the 10 current Pac 12 members, it won't happen until 2024 at the earliest.

PartyBear said:

---

This is all money driven it has nothing to do with culture

---

I believe you are wrong. CA and PAC 12 schools are in a very liberal part of the U.S. They are very sensitive about playing schools without similar liberal bias. Cal previously stated they would never allow anyone with a religious association into the PAC 12. CO doesn't want to come back to the Big 12 for this reason, as well, although they may have to.

Money is a driver, but it isn't close to being the only thing. Football is becoming less popular in CA. The PAC 12 is in trouble for many reasons other than USC/UCLA hauled butt.

Stanford and Cal to the Ivy League.

EatMoreSalmon said:

---

Stanford and Cal to the Ivy League.

---

Regular ivy?

Or poison?

Stanford goes independent on Jan 10, 2023

PartyBear said:

---

This is all money driven it has nothing to do with culture or whether someone has been in the conference before etc. it is strictly about who makes money for the current members of the new XII and any additions and who makes the most money for them. That is all that is considered.

---

Money is probably the largest component now, and, while everyone can understand it at a high level, many posters are igniting the practical aspects of money in realignment.

Specifically:
1. Payout Ramp Up - Any Big/PAC team that changes conferences will see their conference payouts ramp up for several years in their new conference, and that makes changing conferences extremely unattractive if the money is remotely close. This will be exacerbated by shorter term media contracts (i.e. 6 years) which seem to be trending now.
2. Travel Costs - Any Big/PAC team that changes conferences would see their sports related travel costs explode, and that also makes changing conferences unattractive. That is not even considering the additional travel costs incurred by some programs as they cannot use state money to travel to certain states.
3. Loss of non media money - Any Big/PAC team that changes conferences will lose out on non media revenue (i.e. NCAA tournament units) when it changes conferences, and any conference that expands would have to spread that among members so that the Lee member payout would be less. Obviously, this makes justifying changing conferences difficult.