This might ramble a bit, but I went down a rabbit hole, so I figured I'd share it

So at this point, there are 4 teams still realistically in the running for the big 12 championship game: TCU, UT, BU, and KSU (I think KU and OSU could technically still make it, but that's contingent on a lot of losing and not fun to look into). I'm curious to see what the paths are for each of them to make the championship game. I think this covers every possibility, but if not, feel free to add on

TCU (remaining schedule: @UT, @BU, vs ISU; hold tiebreakers against everyone they've played)
Path 1 - Beat Texas. They've got a 2 game lead on KSU (and the tiebreaker), so if KSU beats Baylor next week, TCU would still be in if they lose their last 2 games. If Baylor beats KSU, TCU would at worst be 2nd in the conference if they dropped their last two games

Path 2 - Lose to Texas, but beat Baylor and ISU

Path 3 - Lose to Texas, lose to Baylor, have KSU pick up another loss (one of Texas or Baylor will pick up another loss, so again TCU would be 2nd at worst in this scenario)

Path 4 - Lose all 3, but have Texas and Baylor pick up two other losses

Path 5 - Win out (I forgot this originally because if you beat Texas it doesn't matter about the other two games, but winning everything is the only shot to get into the playoff, which should be the goal at this point)

Really as long as TCU doesn't lose out, they're in good position. Amazing what being undefeated does for you

Texas (remaining schedule: vs TCU, @KU, vs BU; hold tiebreaker against KSU)
Path 1 - Win out

Path 2 - Go 2-1, beating Baylor and having KSU pick up another loss (alternatively, if you lose to Baylor here, but Baylor goes 1-2 Texas would still be in)

Path 3 - Go 1-2, have to beat Baylor here and get some help from KSU losing twice, or we enter a 3+ team tie at 5-4 in conference

Baylor (remaining schedule: vs KSU, vs TCU, @UT; hold tiebreakers against: KU)
Path 1 - Win out

Path 2 - Beat Texas and KSU, have OSU lose a game. The TCU game doesn't matter then

Path 3 - Go 2-1, beating TCU, but losing to either Texas or KSU. In this case, you need whoever you lose to to pick up two losses (or TCU to fall into shambles and lose out)

Path 4 - If we go 1-2, we enter the 5-4 conference tie possibility or we're done

KSU (remaining schedule: @BU, @WVU, vs KU; hold tiebreakers against: OSU)
Path 1 - Win out and have Texas lose at least 1

Path 2 - Go 2-1 and have Texas lose at least 2 (if you lose to Baylor, you need Texas to beat Baylor or have Baylor also lose 2 games)

Path 3 - Go 1-2, you need Baylor and Texas to lose out, but even then, you might get passed by Kansas or we enter the 5-4 conference tie

KU (remaining schedule: @TTU, vs UT, @ KSU; hold tiebreakers against: OSU)
Path 1 - Win out, have Baylor lose 2

Path 2 - Beat Texas and KSU, have each of them lose an extra game and have Baylor lose out

OSU (remaining schedule: vs ISU, @OU, vs WVU; hold tiebreakers against: BU, UT)
Path 1 - Win out, have Texas, Baylor, and Kansas each lose 1 and KSU lose 2

Path 2 - If you lose 1, you're probably gonna be in the 5-4 conference tie

If Baylor beats Texas, loses to KSU and all three teams end up at 6-3, we get into scoring tiebreakers

If we hit the 5-4 in conference mark, you potentially have a tie between Texas, Baylor, KSU, and up to 2 of Kansas, OSU, OU, and TTU. No clue how that tiebreaker would play out

Path 2 for Baylor is incorrect - as you are forgetting about Oklahoma State still being in play.

Under the scenario you have mentioned - We beat KSU and UT, but lose to TCU - We would still need Oklahoma State to lose one more game (which would give them 4 conference losses).

This is the only surefire way to guarantee we get into the title game without a potential tiebreaker working against us.

If the dust settles and both BU and Oklahoma State finish the regular season in a tie for 2nd Place (with 3 conference losses each), then Oklahoma State would get into the title game due to the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The Cowboys would also get in if UT, BU, and Okie State finish with 3 losses each (as they own victories against BU and UT).

I did forget about OSU when I first typed that up, but if Baylor ends up losing to TCU but beating KSU and UT, but UT and KSU win their other two games, and OSU wins their remaining 3 games, you end up with a 4-way 6-3 tie. I'm not completely positive of tiebreak rules, but then you'd figure out that Baylor and OSU each have 2 victories out of the tied teams, then go to OSU having the individual tiebreak on Baylor, so I think OSU would go in

So you're right, but it's a bit more complicated. I'll edit the original to make it accurate

Osu isn't winning out

I agree, but for the consistency of throwing in all possibilities, it could happen

Yep great work. Just color commentary. And yes, they could win out. I'd be shocked. But I'm also
Shocked at say tcus fortune this year. Expected them to have 2 Ls when they come to waco.

They could still have one, but I'd prefer they get their first from us

Greatvwork sir. Thank you for the informative post.

This was a really interesting weekend from a CFP perspective...

Michigan rolled, TCU won.

Meanwhile Alabama took it's second loss, so that should end any discussion of the CFP for them. Georgia beat Tennessee easily, and an average Notre Dame team easily beat Clemson and knocked them out of the unbeaten ranks.

That leaves Georgia, Ohio State, TCU and Michigan unbeaten.

Fre3dombear said:

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Osu isn't winning out

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This. Without Sanders, that's a bad football team. They'll lose at least one more.

It opens the door for the P12 winner as well. Everyone wrote off Oregon yet if they win out they'll be in and should be. Same can be said for USC. Chances are TCU loses their next 2. Fools gold football team and their luck runs out in Austin and or Waco

IowaBear said:

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It opens the door for the P12 winner as well. Everyone wrote off Oregon yet if they win out they'll be in and should be. Same can be said for USC

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The Utah-Oregon and USC-UCLA games will be very interesting. And USC still has Notre Dame at the end of the season, which will likely be a tough game.

That league has become fun at the top. Unfortunately, games involving any of the bottom-half teams are virtually unwatchable ... unless they're against USC, which is bad enough defensively to keep those games competitive.

bear2be2 said:

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IowaBear said:

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It opens the door for the P12 winner as well. Everyone wrote off Oregon yet if they win out they'll be in and should be. Same can be said for USC

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The Utah-Oregon and USC-UCLA games will be very interesting. And USC still has Notre Dame at the end of the season, which will likely be a tough game.

That league has become fun at the top. Unfortunately, games involving any of the bottom-half teams are virtually unwatchable ... unless they're against USC, which is bad enough defensively to keep those games competitive.

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If ND is a tough game for usc, usc ain't a top 10 team

Quote:

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If ND is a tough game for usc, usc ain't a top 10 team

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USC may not be top ten quality, but I think ND has about a 90% chance of being ranked this week after smoking Clemson.

And USC struggled with Cal yesterday.

Thanks OP.

That damn WVU loss stings. Without that we'd be sitting in a much safer spot.

boognish_bear said:

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Thanks OP.

That damn WVU loss stings. Without that we'd be sitting in a much safer spot.

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If we don't lose to WVU, we're sitting alone in second currently. Good thing is, we control what happens to us from here

This rabbit hole has too many possibilities for me to want to spend time in it. My only concern is for Baylor to play in Arlington again & the surefire way to do that is to win 3 more. Win our & we are in.

We beat K State & the path gets easier. If we don't I will reevaluate. Now that I have a ticket I don't want to think such things. Besides, we have the better team. We will win Saturday.

I think OSU is in a free fall & will get at least one more loss. I also think Kansas, K State, Texas, & TCU will each get at least one loss going forward. None of this matters if we win out.

Path 1 and 2 down the crapper