ESPN- Dave Aranda listed on hot seat

6,688 Views | 45 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by morethanhecouldbear
gobears20
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College football coaching hot seat 2024

gobears20
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[url=https://x.com/michaelhaag_/status/1752742962725879894?s=46&t=HypEgQxAH9MviIqtFg1oxQ]&ct=g[/url]
guadalupeoso
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Update: Water is wet.
RD2WINAGNBEAR86
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With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.

Texas A & M just hired a guy whose best regular season record as a head coach is 9-4 and they are paying him $42 million over six years. Funny thing is the Aggies probably won't be two games better than us.
"Stand with anyone when he is right; Stand with him while he is right and part with him when he goes wrong." - Abraham Lincoln
JP1037
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.

Texas A & M just hired a guy whose best regular season record as a head coach is 9-4 and they are paying him $42 million over six years. Funny thing is the Aggies probably won't be two games better than us.
While I think Aranda should have been fired after this season (we lost to schools with a similar or smaller NIL fund than we have) you have a point. College football is no longer a game where everyone has a chance. It's about who can buy the wins. Bad system for Baylor.

But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
parch
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RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.
This is not even remotely true, depending on what you mean by "limited success."

If you'd have said "we will see limited sustained success," then yes, that's most likely. Welcome to just about every program in the nation.

The parameters for success in CFB have changed, but it's still more than possible to play Moneyball with the NIL/portal system and win 7+ games every year while sustaining a baseline of under-the-radar 3-stars, which is what every one of our best teams did. You just need an enterprising coach who can see the underlying picture, craft a vision and execute.

And the only reason why I say "limited" is because if we do get that coach, he's not staying.

In other words, the Georgia Method won't work for us, obviously, like it won't work for 95% of FBS. But there is a blueprint for success in this system that exists. And to me, "success" means having a visible pathway toward a Big 12 title in November year-over-year and continually being in the discussion for a playoff spot. Beyond that will depend on how well the team gels. Because once you get into the playoff, all bets are off.
geewago
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JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
parch
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geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.
Daveisabovereproach
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With the current leadership we have in place, I don't think it's a guaranteed thing that simply failing to go bowling would get him fired. I also don't get why going 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success
parch
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No Quarterback said:

With the current leadership we have in place, I don't think it's a guaranteed thing that simply failing to go bowling would get him fired. I also don't get why going 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success
He is 100% getting fired if he doesn't get us to a bowl next season. And .500 isn't a benchmark for success, it's minimum table stakes for even potentially keeping his job. Depending on how the season goes, I think he's just as likely to be fired as to stay on unless he posts 7 wins. In a conference as tight and quality as the Big 12, that's not a bad year and enough to indicate he's got it back on the rails. At 6-6 it's a judgment call.
muddybrazos
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parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.
If we go 6-6 and show some progress on both sides of the ball I would consider that a success. Our scheduled next year is a lot harder than the one this year.
Robert Wilson
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parch said:

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.
This is not even remotely true, depending on what you mean by "limited success."

If you'd have said "we will see limited sustained success," then yes, that's most likely. Welcome to just about every program in the nation.

The parameters for success in CFB have changed, but it's still more than possible to play Moneyball with the NIL/portal system and win 7+ games every year while sustaining a baseline of under-the-radar 3-stars, which is what every one of our best teams did. You just need an enterprising coach who can see the underlying picture, craft a vision and execute.

And the only reason why I say "limited" is because if we do get that coach, he's not staying.

In other words, the Georgia Method won't work for us, obviously, like it won't work for 95% of FBS. But there is a blueprint for success in this system that exists. And to me, "success" means having a visible pathway toward a Big 12 title in November year-over-year and continually being in the discussion for a playoff spot. Beyond that will depend on how well the team gels. Because once you get into the playoff, all bets are off.
Agree. We are basically where we always were. The talent pool hasn't shrunk. We have to have the right coach. Like we always did. And then we have to keep him, which we had circumvented with Teaff as a lifer (for a variety of reasons), and Briles was basically stuck here for the foreseeable future (until the unpleasantness).
GoodOleBaylorLine
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I am not going to accept that we cannot be competitive in NIL in the B12. Yes, we won't be top dog, but we shouldn't be the runt either.

And regardless, we need a coach that can adapt to NIL and the portal and who can actually coach and compile a staff that can coach. Talent spotting still matters. Development still matters. Scheme still matters. Motivation still matters.
drahthaar
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muddybrazos said:

parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.
If we go 6-6 and show some progress on both sides of the ball I would consider that a success. Our scheduled next year is a lot harder than the one this year.
Tough schedule. Young guys a year older and stronger (?) and "seasoned". Portal upgrades with more spring potential. Nice start on recruiting class. Lots of real interest which was lost in '22 and '23. New staff hires with immediate attitude shifts. Same admin.

Barring a return of the ineptness of '23, 5 wins will be enough. it's Baylor where some improvement and competitive play is enough. While the bar ought to be 6-7 and a bowl as the floor, unlikely to be the case. Admin is going to want to give this new staff 2 years minimum.
parch
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muddybrazos said:

parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.
If we go 6-6 and show some progress on both sides of the ball I would consider that a success. Our scheduled next year is a lot harder than the one this year.
Success is not the word I'd use. "Acceptable," maybe, depending on how we look in the wins and how we acquit ourselves in the losses. I still think 6-6 is an edge case and will basically be a judgment call in the moment, but anything worse than that is a quick trigger fire. Especially if our pathway to 6 wins gets extinguished early, Aranda won't make it to the end of November.

Aranda and Mike McCarthy have a lot in common next season.
blackie
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No Quarterback said:

With the current leadership we have in place, I don't think it's a guaranteed thing that simply failing to go bowling would get him fired. I also don't get why going 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success
You are entitled to your belief, but where has it been stated by someone within the school that 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success? Any link or is this just internet talk that has no basis in fact with those that are in control of the hiring / firing decisions?
JP1037
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No Quarterback said:

With the current leadership we have in place, I don't think it's a guaranteed thing that simply failing to go bowling would get him fired. I also don't get why going 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success


100% agree. We need a leader who freaking hates losing with a passion. That is not what we've got.
Bakersdozen
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He should be on the hot seat. Even while he was learning to be a head coach, he missed using the portal for key upgrades on talent. He missed using NIL to his advantage. He has been behind the curve in several important areas. I like Aranda and I think it says something that so many players have stuck it out with him. Still, there is a downward trend. He has one year to turn it around.
True Grit
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I do not even remotely believe our AD would get rid of him even with a losing record. I think he's getting the 6th year, and that it has already been discussed. It's probably why the new hires even came in the first place.
Stefano DiMera
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He better get a 5th year since we're already in his 5th so it's too late to fire him now.
chorne68
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He has been terrible. I hope he turns it around. He is a good man. I do not think he will.
Space Cutter
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After looking through our upcoming season schedule, Aranda is toast.
Big guy
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Can someone please show me more than 4 wins on the
2024 schedule.
BluesBear
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Win #1 - Aug 24th - Bye Week
Win #2 - Aug 31st - Tarleton State in 3OTs
Win #3 - Nov 9th - Bye Week
Win #4 - Nov 23rd - Houston

Frankly, if we don't beat Tarleton by 30 points or more, he should be fired on the field along with the AD...
chriscbear
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7 to 9 wins. Tarl St, Air Force, Col , TT , Iowa St, TCU, Houston, Kansas. Something like this. Don't see wins against Utah, Okie St or WV.
ScottS
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parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.


I'm not so sure. The AD and higher ups, BOI etc, don't seem to care about the losing.
reidawgBear94
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chriscbear said:

7 to 9 wins. Tarl St, Air Force, Col , TT , Iowa St, TCU, Houston, Kansas. Something like this. Don't see wins against Utah, Okie St or WV.
If we beat those teams (plus BYU, I assume per your other predictions), at 7-2 in conf, BU will play in the B12 title gm. (It would be cool to play Utah 2x and yet not play a reg szn conference gm with them.) The likelihood of that outcome, and I am basing this on precedent, is extremely low. But ... if Dave and Spav coach their tails off, the players are fired up, and our 2024 transfer class is as impactful as our 2021 transfer class ie the most impactful (pound-for-pound) transfer class in power5 history, it's certainly possible. I would love for that to happen. Hope springs eternal ... especially this time of year.

Heck, let's go all in: how bout we beat an undefeated Utah in the B12 title gm and play them a 3rd time in the CFP and extend Dave thru 2032!
Yogi
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3 out of 4 losing seasons and a year and a half plummet would already get you fired at almost all Power 5 programs.

Aranda is lucky that we are poor and patient.
"Smarter than the Average Bear."
parch
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ScottS said:

parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.


I'm not so sure. The AD and higher ups, BOI etc, don't seem to care about the losing.
You're wrong. Everyone cares about losing.
Daveisabovereproach
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parch said:

ScottS said:

parch said:

geewago said:

JP1037 said:



But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.
But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS
If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.


I'm not so sure. The AD and higher ups, BOI etc, don't seem to care about the losing.
You're wrong. Everyone cares about losing.


And yet Aranda is still our coach. Everyone claims to care about certain things until it's time to take action. Easy to talk, much more difficult to make tough decisions
Daveisabovereproach
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chriscbear said:

7 to 9 wins. Tarl St, Air Force, Col , TT , Iowa St, TCU, Houston, Kansas. Something like this. Don't see wins against Utah, Okie St or WV.


I honestly don't see more than three or four wins on our schedule unless Finn truly is Lamar Jackson-esque.
PacificBear
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Hot seat?? He's only here because of Linda.
datboiquadzilla
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Shocker.
Robert Wilson
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Yogi said:

3 out of 4 losing seasons and a year and a half plummet would already get you fired at almost all Power 5 programs.

Aranda is lucky that we are poor and patient.
100%

You fail to capitalize on a 12-win season, B12 champ, and Sugar Bowl win? Follow with 2 more losing seasons? Revolving doors at both OC and DC? (and not for good reasons - not like Saban losing his OC to an HC spot every year)

What are the odds you can then dig out of that hole? Hopefully he does, but I think very few P5 programs would've rolled with him another year.

My concern is he somehow goes 6-7 again and we roll with him again. But, honestly, we may be ok with that as long as he checks all the other boxes.
Moondoggie
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chriscbear said:

7 to 9 wins. Tarl St, Air Force, Col , TT , Iowa St, TCU, Houston, Kansas. Something like this. Don't see wins against Utah, Okie St or WV.


Man, I hope you are right.
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