I have a tentative win penciled in against Tarleton State.

If we go 6-6, he's still on the hot seat.

Then it's 8 wins or get out.

chorne68 said:

---

He has been terrible. I hope he turns it around. He is a good man. I do not think he will.

---

I don't think he will either. A lot excited about his recruiting. It is solid. 60-72 ranking range. And 13 Big 12 schools out recruiting him. He just can't right the ship. But, I'm sure it will be his assistants fault like it always is. Keep firing them. Keep getting out recruited by almost every single old and new Big 12 teams. Crazy

Gametime said:

---

chorne68 said:

---

He has been terrible. I hope he turns it around. He is a good man. I do not think he will.

---

I don't think he will either. A lot excited about his recruiting. It is solid. 60-72 ranking range. And 13 Big 12 schools out recruiting him. He just can't right the ship. But, I'm sure it will be his assistants fault like it always is. Keep firing them. Keep getting out recruited by almost every single old and new Big 12 teams. Crazy

---

The revolving door on assistants (and the roster talent drop since he got here) are both indications that he does not have the necessary ability to attract / lead / manage people.

He may just be a really good DC.

hoping for the best. but not expecting it. Wins over Colorado, Tech and TCU/ I doubt it. We will be picked at or near the bottom and probably finish there. Still there will be big reluctance to fire Dave, Mack, Linda and the BOR are solid in his corner because they hired him. Admitting mistakes has not been Baylor's strong suite.

We should have a good understanding by the 6th game. At 1-5 the alums will be howling and the stadium half empty

parch said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.

---

This is not even remotely true, depending on what you mean by "limited success."

If you'd have said "we will see limited sustained success," then yes, that's most likely. Welcome to just about every program in the nation.

The parameters for success in CFB have changed, but it's still more than possible to play Moneyball with the NIL/portal system and win 7+ games every year while sustaining a baseline of under-the-radar 3-stars, which is what every one of our best teams did. You just need an enterprising coach who can see the underlying picture, craft a vision and execute.

And the only reason why I say "limited" is because if we do get that coach, he's not staying.

In other words, the Georgia Method won't work for us, obviously, like it won't work for 95% of FBS. But there is a blueprint for success in this system that exists. And to me, "success" means having a visible pathway toward a Big 12 title in November year-over-year and continually being in the discussion for a playoff spot. Beyond that will depend on how well the team gels. Because once you get into the playoff, all bets are off.

---

I agree. BU can have a 2021 season every few years, but there will be some 2023's in there as well.

I have no problem with viewing a Coach like Aranda on the totality of his contract, is a B12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl with 2 other Bowl appearences in 5 years acceptable every contract?

So, are we good with:

Bad
Great (B12 Champ)
Good (Minor Bowl)
Bad
Good (Minor Bowl)?

I am good with it.

BUT, if that is the case then the initial contract term has to hold. BU and Mack can't go nuts and pay the moon after the great season because the bad is coming... If we are going to go based on entirety, than negotiations don't start until last year. If he walks, he walks...

FLBear5630 said:

---

parch said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.

---

This is not even remotely true, depending on what you mean by "limited success."

If you'd have said "we will see limited sustained success," then yes, that's most likely. Welcome to just about every program in the nation.

The parameters for success in CFB have changed, but it's still more than possible to play Moneyball with the NIL/portal system and win 7+ games every year while sustaining a baseline of under-the-radar 3-stars, which is what every one of our best teams did. You just need an enterprising coach who can see the underlying picture, craft a vision and execute.

And the only reason why I say "limited" is because if we do get that coach, he's not staying.

In other words, the Georgia Method won't work for us, obviously, like it won't work for 95% of FBS. But there is a blueprint for success in this system that exists. And to me, "success" means having a visible pathway toward a Big 12 title in November year-over-year and continually being in the discussion for a playoff spot. Beyond that will depend on how well the team gels. Because once you get into the playoff, all bets are off.

---

I agree. BU can have a 2021 season every few years, but there will be some 2023's in there as well.

I have no problem with viewing a Coach like Aranda on the totality of his contract, is a B12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl with 2 other Bowl appearences in 5 years acceptable every contract?

So, are we good with:

Bad
Great (B12 Champ)
Good (Minor Bowl)
Bad
Good (Minor Bowl)?

I am good with it.

BUT, if that is the case then the initial contract term has to hold. BU and Mack can't go nuts and pay the moon after the great season because the bad is coming... If we are going to go based on entirety, than negotiations don't start until last year. If he walks, he walks...

---

Yep. Realistically, we are going to see-saw on wins. With the level of talent the system allows us to take, it's just reality. We will occasionally pop up with back-to-back crazy years like 2013/2014, but no coach, Briles included, can sustain that year over year with our depth vs. the big dogs.

I don't rate the COVID year at all, especially for first-year coaches, so in the last three Aranda is averaging 7 wins, which is right about where I'd say is the acceptable limit for a Baylor coach. That's why 2024 is his make or break year. He teeters either side of that number and he's either entrenched or gone.

Anything below 6 wins, Aranda is gone. Anything above, he saves his job. At 6-6, it's a toss-up and Mack will probably decide based on how we finished the year.

parch said:

---

FLBear5630 said:

---

parch said:

---

RD2WINAGNBEAR86 said:

---

With the current NIL / Transfer Portal system, it really does not matter who our head football coach is. We will see limited success. Might as well not break the bank hiring someone that we think can fix this.

---

This is not even remotely true, depending on what you mean by "limited success."

If you'd have said "we will see limited sustained success," then yes, that's most likely. Welcome to just about every program in the nation.

The parameters for success in CFB have changed, but it's still more than possible to play Moneyball with the NIL/portal system and win 7+ games every year while sustaining a baseline of under-the-radar 3-stars, which is what every one of our best teams did. You just need an enterprising coach who can see the underlying picture, craft a vision and execute.

And the only reason why I say "limited" is because if we do get that coach, he's not staying.

In other words, the Georgia Method won't work for us, obviously, like it won't work for 95% of FBS. But there is a blueprint for success in this system that exists. And to me, "success" means having a visible pathway toward a Big 12 title in November year-over-year and continually being in the discussion for a playoff spot. Beyond that will depend on how well the team gels. Because once you get into the playoff, all bets are off.

---

I agree. BU can have a 2021 season every few years, but there will be some 2023's in there as well.

I have no problem with viewing a Coach like Aranda on the totality of his contract, is a B12 Championship and a Sugar Bowl with 2 other Bowl appearences in 5 years acceptable every contract?

So, are we good with:

Bad
Great (B12 Champ)
Good (Minor Bowl)
Bad
Good (Minor Bowl)?

I am good with it.

BUT, if that is the case then the initial contract term has to hold. BU and Mack can't go nuts and pay the moon after the great season because the bad is coming... If we are going to go based on entirety, than negotiations don't start until last year. If he walks, he walks...

---

Yep. Realistically, we are going to see-saw on wins. With the level of talent the system allows us to take, it's just reality. We will occasionally pop up with back-to-back crazy years like 2013/2014, but no coach, Briles included, can sustain that year over year with our depth vs. the big dogs.

I don't rate the COVID year at all, especially for first-year coaches, so in the last three Aranda is averaging 7 wins, which is right about where I'd say is the acceptable limit for a Baylor coach. That's why 2024 is his make or break year. He teeters either side of that number and he's either entrenched or gone.

Anything below 6 wins, Aranda is gone. Anything above, he saves his job. At 6-6, it's a toss-up and Mack will probably decide based on how we finished the year.

---

I would like to see a Bowl Game, not a high bar in today's CFB world. Something like the Alamo or the Pop Tarts would be great. Liberty or TaxAct fine. (Strange, strange world we live in...)

No Quarterback said:

---

parch said:

---

ScottS said:

---

parch said:

---

geewago said:

---

JP1037 said:

---

But yeah. Aranda is on the hot seat but he will likely be on the hot seat next year after a 4 win season and an AD and BOR that is not fully committed to winning.

---

But this becomes like Abraham dickering with God about how many good guys would it take to save Sodom. 4 he's in trouble - probably so. But if he wins 5, now what do you do? - signs of improvement, right? - then he stays. And per chance he wins 6 (6-6) and makes it to the expresso soup bowl. Even with a loss there - he might get a raise and an extension. DISCUSS

---

If Aranda doesn't go bowling next season he's toast. Full stop. The 6-6 record is the muddy one, because it's double the win total from 2023 but still not a successful season. That to me is the only 50/50 for Rhoades. 7-5+ is no-brainer keep him on, 5-7- and he's kicking rocks.

---

I'm not so sure. The AD and higher ups, BOI etc, don't seem to care about the losing.

---

You're wrong. Everyone cares about losing.

---

And yet Aranda is still our coach. Everyone claims to care about certain things until it's time to take action. Easy to talk, much more difficult to make tough decisions

---

I kind of agree that everyone cares about losing. Everyone also likes to win.

But folks who truly and emphatically hate losing would never allow a coach who inherited a winning program to go 9-16 over two years and keep a job. As you indicate, if you are ok with that then you really don't have a very big problem with losing.

In D1 college sports and pro sports you have to obsess over losses to be successful... just not liking them is not enough.

No Quarterback said:

---

With the current leadership we have in place, I don't think it's a guaranteed thing that simply failing to go bowling would get him fired. I also don't get why going 0.500 is viewed as the benchmark for success

---

My gut tells me he is going to get 2 more seasons to figure it out, unless we win 4 or less games this coming season. It's going to be about improvement and how competitive we are, even in the losses.

4 wins = Aranda Gone
5 wins with a bunch of blowout losses = Aranda is likely gone
5 wins with mixed loss results = Aranda coming back
6 wins = Aranda coming back for sure