I think BU can win and will win.

Big12Fan2024 said:

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We have fans suddenly trying make Utah sound like they're Georgia, Ohio St or Texas. They're not. They don't have those kind of top tier athletes across the board. Someone else in this thread said it best. They basically have the same talent level as Kansas State or Oklahoma State. There is no one in the Big 12 with a team full of top tier athletes. They are all comprised mostly of good, solid athletes with a few top tier type players thrown in and need to be coached up to compete at a top level.

That is where Utah excels. They are a fundamentally sound well coached team that typically performs above their athletic level because of that. That is where Utah has the easy advantage over us. We're not a well coached fundamentally sound team.

But there is no reason to think they are so much better than us or anyone else in the Big 12 to think they should blow us out. Everyone said the same thing last year and our line, QB play and defense were all much worse than what they appear to be this year. If any game tells us about this team it's this one since a fundamentally sound team like Utah can expose any warts fairly easily. They'll probably win by 10-14, but certainly not by any more than that unless Finn throws 5 pick 6s or we fumble 5 or 6 times. I think he will adjust and when all is said and done we may sneak out with a win if the D line and secondary have good games.

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While I understand your point here, and think you are right about Utah's talent level, I think the reason people believe Utah may blow us out is because we have seen Utah teams of the past blow out teams with exceptional talent. Now granted those teams were not particularly fundamentally sound, like Oregon in 2021 and USC in 2021. Now take us into account, being neither exceptionally talented, nor necessarily fundamentally sound, and the possibility that Utah blows us out is not all that far fetched.

Now, would it be more likely that Georgia or Ohio state would blow us out than the likelihood of Utah? Sure. But is it possible? Of course. Also comparing Kansas State's talent level to Utah's at this point in time is not a point in favor of Utah not blowing us out. In our last 2 contests against Kansas State they have beaten us by an average margin of 31 points.

I personally do not believe that Utah should blow us out and will be upset if they do so, but I don't think its near the far fetched notion that you believe it is simply because their talent level is not that far above our own.

I'm just hoping to see BU look competitive against a quality Utah team on Saturday. If they actually mess around and win the game I will be so annoying at work on Monday.

A win over No. 11 Utah on the road as 15-point underdogs would be the biggest upset victory for the Bears since knocking off No. 1 Kansas State in 2012 as 10-point underdogs. #SicEm https://t.co/jVCTi4yJ1z

— Grayson Grundhoefer (@GrayGrundhoefer) September 5, 2024

boognish_bear said:

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I'm just hoping to see BU look competitive against a quality Utah team on Saturday. If they actually mess around and win the game I will be so annoying at work on Monday.

A win over No. 11 Utah on the road as 15-point underdogs would be the biggest upset victory for the Bears since knocking off No. 1 Kansas State in 2012 as 10-point underdogs. #SicEm https://t.co/jVCTi4yJ1z

— Grayson Grundhoefer (@GrayGrundhoefer) September 5, 2024

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I think we would need a lot of luck in the form of converting a few freak turnovers to bring home the dub on this one.

But if we make Utah fans sweat, I'll take that as a fun game.

boognish_bear said:

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I am going to be curious to see if Dave is still super aggressive with decision making. It didn't really come up on Saturday.

In the past we've seen him go for it from like 4th and 4 and 4th and 3 behind the 40 yard line in his own territory. I hope that is gone. I like being aggressive....but some of those decisions have been crazy.

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I hope so, too. Giving their offense a short field through turnovers or through going for it unsuccessfully on 4th down would lead to a blow out. Our D will already be stressed. Our best chance to win, I think, is a relatively low scoring game.

I give us a 20% chance to beat Utah

If we can run the ball between the tackles it would help but maybe not necessary ?

Utah is 36-4 in their last 40 home games. They have a senior quarterback who WILL be on an NFL roster.

Baylor is NOT a good value bet. Stay away.

Not as a starter. He and Quinn Ewers will have that in common.

Your hate for Ewers is rather weird. Dudes a damn good college QB.
I get it, you've crowned Arch the next Tom Brady because he lead a TD drive against garbage ass CSU… pump the brakes.
Also I could be wrong here. But I'm fairly certain Sark has a good grasp on this QB room. If Arch was the better QB right now he would be starting.

wongobear said:

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Utah is 36-4 in their last 40 home games. They have a senior quarterback who WILL be on an NFL roster.

Baylor is NOT a good value bet. Stay away.

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Sorry, but if Baylor cant stay within 2 tds of Utah then we have some real problems. We arent playing the horns or bama.

I agree. I looked at their games last year and they are not world beaters at all. Def should not be a blow out and we will see how well our team has upgraded. If we do get blown out that's not good. But we still have a decent schedule that should keep us in games for the rest of the season.

wongobear said:

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Utah is 36-4 in their last 40 home games. They have a senior quarterback who WILL be on an NFL roster.

Baylor is NOT a good value bet. Stay away.

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Sorry, but noodle arm Cam Rising wasn't gonna get to the NFL pre injury, let alone now. He is what he is, a good college quarterback, but I think his mobility is shot and the bears will tee off on him Saturday.

I think you're underestimating the value of QB play. Utah had some of the worst QB play in the country last year without Rising.
He's definitely not a world beater but he's a darn good CFB QB and that makes a gigantic difference. Utah is beatable. But using last years film is a horrible idea.

If Finn continues to eyeball his target and doesn't get pulled, I'm confident he can (and will) double his INT production over last week. I'm also pretty sure we'll see our secondary get torched on the regular unless our d-line somehow gets substantial and regular pressure on the QB. All growing pains on the way back to the top of the Big12.

This does not sound encouraging. Hopefully Spav has creative ways to work around a substandard OL. Having a QB with a speed helps at least.

Baylor's protection was pretty iffy last week against Tarleton. They allowed pressures on 37% of dropbacks, but on not very many dropbacks.

I expect very little true dropback passing from Spav. Have to get the ball out of Finn's hands early.

— Travis Roeder (@Travis_Roeder) September 6, 2024

If Ewers was as good as his media hype he wouldn't have had to rethink his entry to the draft and play another season. Unless you think he came back to finish his degree. But either way it's Sark's choice.

boognish_bear said:

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This does not sound encouraging. Hopefully Spav has creative ways to work around a substandard OL. Having a QB with a speed helps at least.

Baylor's protection was pretty iffy last week against Tarleton. They allowed pressures on 37% of dropbacks, but on not very many dropbacks.

I expect very little true dropback passing from Spav. Have to get the ball out of Finn's hands early.

— Travis Roeder (@Travis_Roeder) September 6, 2024

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Travis is pretty down on our chances against Utah. He thinks we'll keep it reasonably within reach before things fall apart in the 4th quarter when we get desperate.

If starting in the NFL is the standard for a good CFB QB than there's what 3 good QBs a year at the college level? There's also zero evidence to this point that Arch is going to be a good CFB QB let alone an NFL starter

People arguing against Rising or saying Utah isn't a powerhouse.

I guess if those things make you want to bet on Baylor (this thread is about the line) then go ahead. I don't think the line is far off on this one. Maybe a bet at 17.5 makes sense, but there are likely other games with a better chance to hit than Baylor on the road versus one of the best quarterbacks in CFB.

IowaBear said:

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Your hate for Ewers is rather weird. Dudes a damn good college QB.
I get it, you've crowned Arch the next Tom Brady because he lead a TD drive against garbage ass CSU… pump the brakes.
Also I could be wrong here. But I'm fairly certain Sark has a good grasp on this QB room. If Arch was the better QB right now he would be starting.

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I've come around on Ewers. I wasn't terribly impressed with him in Year 1 at Texas and thought he was inconsistent last year. But he's shown enormous growth the past two seasons.

I'm not going to predict he'll be an NFL starter, but I think it's crazy to rule it out. He's a really talented quarterback.

IowaBear said:

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If starting in the NFL is the standard for a good CFB QB than there's what 3 good QBs a year at the college level? There's also zero evidence to this point that Arch is going to be a good CFB QB let alone an NFL starter

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What? He looked good in that last drive

wongobear said:

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People arguing against Rising or saying Utah isn't a powerhouse.

I guess if those things make you want to bet on Baylor (this thread is about the line) then go ahead. I don't think the line is far off on this one. Maybe a bet at 17.5 makes sense, but there are likely other games with a better chance to hit than Baylor on the road versus one of the best quarterbacks in CFB.

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Cam Rising is only one of the best quarterbacks in CFB if he can move. And time will tell how much mobility he lost to his injury.

Jonathan Tchamwa-Tchatchua was one of the best athletes in college basketball before his injury. Unfortunately, he was a shell of himself afterward.

If I'm Aranda, I'm lighting Rising up early and often. Make him prove he can get away from a pass rush and make good decisions/passes under duress.

Took the under 55 on this game...hoping for good defense today

I was gonna pick Utah but what the hell, bears win 27-20.

boognish_bear said:

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Took the under 55 on this game...hoping for good defense today

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Yeah, I'd say taking the under is the best bet on this game.

wongobear said:

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boognish_bear said:

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Took the under 55 on this game...hoping for good defense today

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Yeah, I'd say taking the under is the best bet on this game.

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BU gonna do their part by not scoring....now can the D hold Utah under 55???

This is a disastrous showing. Utah isn't nearly as good as we're making them look.

They're good, but we're freaking awful for the second year in a row.

Is the OL somehow worse?

I'm hoping to be offering the world's largest mea culpa after this game. Still a long way to go, though.

Welp taking the L sucks....but the spread and the Under hit at least

boognish_bear said:

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I am going to be curious to see if Dave is still super aggressive with decision making. It didn't really come up on Saturday.

In the past we've seen him go for it from like 4th and 4 and 4th and 3 behind the 40 yard line in his own territory. I hope that is gone. I like being aggressive....but some of those decisions have been crazy.

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He hasn't changed.

I know Rhule is a lightening rod here for some reason....but his in game decisions led to us winning close games more often than not. I fear Dave is the opposite of that.

I've never minded the aggression just the play calls, which I guess one could argue are linked