State of the Program
If you are reading this, you are well aware of the crossroads this program faces and the temperature of Dave Aranda's seat as he enters Year 7 leading the Baylor football program. This time last year, Baylor fans had dreams of competing for the conference championship and a spot in the CFP.
Last season began with a great opportunity in a great environment, on national television, to defeat a national SEC brand. That squandered chance turned into a foreshadowing of the season to come. Inconsistent play, flashes of greatness and ineptitude from the players and staff, sleepwalking through quarters and halves, untimely injuries, and more led to a highly disappointing 5-7 season.
Virtually everyone thought that the Dave Aranda era had come to a merciful end. He played every card that he ever had, with every excuse for each of his missteps finally exhausted; it was time to move on. By a stroke of great personal luck, Mack Rhoades and his personal life cost him his job as AD, and Aranda was spared due to the chaos of the timing of the AD's dismissal. (Side note: I can't think of anyone who benefited more from ADMR dismissal than Aranda. Someone more conspiratorial might think someone from his camp leaked that dirt at the exact right time.)
There is another change at Defensive Coordinator as Joe Klanderman comes over from Kansas State, where he put together solid-to-very good defensive units. We will see if he has the time and personnel to improve a dreadful unit.
Jake Spavital returns at Offensive Coordinator with some high-upside pieces. His unit will likely need to put up 30+ points again for this team to compete weekly. His challenge is replacing almost the entire starting offensive lineup while counting on an eligibility ruling and favorable injury luck.
Roster Outlook
From a poor 2025 team, the Bears lost their best: QB, RB, WR, TE, LB, 4/5 OL, DL. Aranda is supplementing the roster with the #36/58-ranked Transfer Portal class and the #55/53-ranked 2026 HS class.
The obvious gem and reason for hope for this season is the Prodigal Son, DJ Lagway. He's been on the radar of Baylor fans for the better part of five years due to his rise to elite prospect and the obvious connection with his father. The ceiling of this season likely rests on the arm of Lagway and whether the retooled OL can keep him upright.
A crucial piece to this roster and the floor/ceiling of this team is going to come down to the eligibility of DL Hosea Wheeler and OL Yakiri Walker. If they are cleared, that raises the depth and experience level in the trenches significantly.
Schedule
9/5 @Auburn (Atlanta)
9/12 PVA&M
9/19 LA Tech
9/26 Colorado
10/3 @Arizona St.
10/17 TCU
10/24 @Kansas
10/30 @UCF
11/7 Iowa St.
11/14 @BYU
11/21 TTU
11/28 @UH
The temperature of the fan base and Aranda's seat is going to swing wildly either way with the result of Week 1 against Auburn. CDA can do a lot for himself and the momentum of the program if he can go into SEC country and get a win on national television.
Finishing the year is seemingly the most difficult part of the schedule, but this is the Big 12 and preseason predictions rarely play out accurately.
Advanced Ratings and Odds
Win Total:
Over 6.5 wins +154
Under 6.5 wins -192
+4000 to win Big 12
+125000 to win CFP
There is a severe apathy and lack of momentum in all aspects of the program as it currently stands. I am hopeful that the new Athletic Director, Doug McNamee, will improve the overall gameday and fan experience. His "Give A ****" for the fanbase already appears to be much higher than his predecessor. If Baylor is going to be able to compete in the current/future landscape of college football, I think that Doug gives us the best chance at raising the necessary funds and engaging + aligning the fanbase.
His job gets a whole lot easier if Aranda can put together a team that looks prepared, energized, consistent, and wins at a high level this season. If Aranda cannot do that, then ADDM has the opportunity to swing for the fences and rebuild the program and fanbase as he sees fit.
My View
I have a hard time picturing a team that went 5-7 last season and lost all of their major contributors, either to graduation or the Transfer Portal, improving greatly. There was one major splash addition to the roster between the portal and high school ranks, and that is DJ Lagway. I am not convinced that he is going to step in and be much more productive than Sawyer Robertson was last year. Not to mention he has to do it with an entirely new group of linemen and skilled players.
If this is the offseason that Aranda figured out how to evaluate and build a complete roster, then I would be happily surprised. He has been unable to do so since 2021 and seems to be at least one major step behind each and every season.
The schedule appears to be one of the most difficult in the conference, which will not help the W-L record. If Baylor goes into Atlanta and defeats Auburn, I could see them winning 9+ games. If it looks like the same inconsistent team, this will be a long season. Prediction: 5-7
The college football landscape has undoubtedly changed, and there are several challenges that exist now that haven't previously been there for Baylor.
Guy Morriss was fired after not being able to put together a winning season, and he had the worst facilities in the conference with minimal organizational support. He was also competing in a conference with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Nebraska, among others.
Dave Aranda has premier facilities, competes in a weaker conference, has the most fertile recruiting ground, highly paid assistants, and a program with a history of winning conference championships and producing first-round draft picks.
There are no more excuses to be made. There needs to be immediate results this year.
When even the most optimistic Baylor homers and Aranda defenders, who spent multiple years and thousands of message board posts, have turned on him as the leader of this program, you know that the odds aren't great of him returning in 2027.
Simply put, Baylor is sitting firmly behind all of our chief in-state rivals: TCU, Tech, SMU, Houston.
There are several exciting coaches that are easily attainable for Baylor to target, and several more will appear throughout the season. Among them: Jason Eck, Charles Huff, Brian Newberry, Spencer Danielson, Chris Kleiman, etc.
If it comes to be, I look forward to an exciting coaching search and a unification of the fanbase so that we can be excited about Baylor football once again.
Key Questions:
If you are reading this, you are well aware of the crossroads this program faces and the temperature of Dave Aranda's seat as he enters Year 7 leading the Baylor football program. This time last year, Baylor fans had dreams of competing for the conference championship and a spot in the CFP.
Last season began with a great opportunity in a great environment, on national television, to defeat a national SEC brand. That squandered chance turned into a foreshadowing of the season to come. Inconsistent play, flashes of greatness and ineptitude from the players and staff, sleepwalking through quarters and halves, untimely injuries, and more led to a highly disappointing 5-7 season.
Virtually everyone thought that the Dave Aranda era had come to a merciful end. He played every card that he ever had, with every excuse for each of his missteps finally exhausted; it was time to move on. By a stroke of great personal luck, Mack Rhoades and his personal life cost him his job as AD, and Aranda was spared due to the chaos of the timing of the AD's dismissal. (Side note: I can't think of anyone who benefited more from ADMR dismissal than Aranda. Someone more conspiratorial might think someone from his camp leaked that dirt at the exact right time.)
There is another change at Defensive Coordinator as Joe Klanderman comes over from Kansas State, where he put together solid-to-very good defensive units. We will see if he has the time and personnel to improve a dreadful unit.
Jake Spavital returns at Offensive Coordinator with some high-upside pieces. His unit will likely need to put up 30+ points again for this team to compete weekly. His challenge is replacing almost the entire starting offensive lineup while counting on an eligibility ruling and favorable injury luck.
Roster Outlook
From a poor 2025 team, the Bears lost their best: QB, RB, WR, TE, LB, 4/5 OL, DL. Aranda is supplementing the roster with the #36/58-ranked Transfer Portal class and the #55/53-ranked 2026 HS class.
The obvious gem and reason for hope for this season is the Prodigal Son, DJ Lagway. He's been on the radar of Baylor fans for the better part of five years due to his rise to elite prospect and the obvious connection with his father. The ceiling of this season likely rests on the arm of Lagway and whether the retooled OL can keep him upright.
A crucial piece to this roster and the floor/ceiling of this team is going to come down to the eligibility of DL Hosea Wheeler and OL Yakiri Walker. If they are cleared, that raises the depth and experience level in the trenches significantly.
Schedule
9/5 @Auburn (Atlanta)
9/12 PVA&M
9/19 LA Tech
9/26 Colorado
10/3 @Arizona St.
10/17 TCU
10/24 @Kansas
10/30 @UCF
11/7 Iowa St.
11/14 @BYU
11/21 TTU
11/28 @UH
The temperature of the fan base and Aranda's seat is going to swing wildly either way with the result of Week 1 against Auburn. CDA can do a lot for himself and the momentum of the program if he can go into SEC country and get a win on national television.
Finishing the year is seemingly the most difficult part of the schedule, but this is the Big 12 and preseason predictions rarely play out accurately.
Advanced Ratings and Odds
Win Total:
Over 6.5 wins +154
Under 6.5 wins -192
+4000 to win Big 12
+125000 to win CFP
- ESPN FPI: 37
- SP+: 51
- Massey: 64
- TeamRankings.com: 53
There is a severe apathy and lack of momentum in all aspects of the program as it currently stands. I am hopeful that the new Athletic Director, Doug McNamee, will improve the overall gameday and fan experience. His "Give A ****" for the fanbase already appears to be much higher than his predecessor. If Baylor is going to be able to compete in the current/future landscape of college football, I think that Doug gives us the best chance at raising the necessary funds and engaging + aligning the fanbase.
His job gets a whole lot easier if Aranda can put together a team that looks prepared, energized, consistent, and wins at a high level this season. If Aranda cannot do that, then ADDM has the opportunity to swing for the fences and rebuild the program and fanbase as he sees fit.
My View
I have a hard time picturing a team that went 5-7 last season and lost all of their major contributors, either to graduation or the Transfer Portal, improving greatly. There was one major splash addition to the roster between the portal and high school ranks, and that is DJ Lagway. I am not convinced that he is going to step in and be much more productive than Sawyer Robertson was last year. Not to mention he has to do it with an entirely new group of linemen and skilled players.
If this is the offseason that Aranda figured out how to evaluate and build a complete roster, then I would be happily surprised. He has been unable to do so since 2021 and seems to be at least one major step behind each and every season.
The schedule appears to be one of the most difficult in the conference, which will not help the W-L record. If Baylor goes into Atlanta and defeats Auburn, I could see them winning 9+ games. If it looks like the same inconsistent team, this will be a long season. Prediction: 5-7
The college football landscape has undoubtedly changed, and there are several challenges that exist now that haven't previously been there for Baylor.
Guy Morriss was fired after not being able to put together a winning season, and he had the worst facilities in the conference with minimal organizational support. He was also competing in a conference with Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Nebraska, among others.
Dave Aranda has premier facilities, competes in a weaker conference, has the most fertile recruiting ground, highly paid assistants, and a program with a history of winning conference championships and producing first-round draft picks.
There are no more excuses to be made. There needs to be immediate results this year.
When even the most optimistic Baylor homers and Aranda defenders, who spent multiple years and thousands of message board posts, have turned on him as the leader of this program, you know that the odds aren't great of him returning in 2027.
Simply put, Baylor is sitting firmly behind all of our chief in-state rivals: TCU, Tech, SMU, Houston.
There are several exciting coaches that are easily attainable for Baylor to target, and several more will appear throughout the season. Among them: Jason Eck, Charles Huff, Brian Newberry, Spencer Danielson, Chris Kleiman, etc.
If it comes to be, I look forward to an exciting coaching search and a unification of the fanbase so that we can be excited about Baylor football once again.
Key Questions:
- What is your prediction for Baylor's record?
- What record does Dave Aranda need to keep his job?
- If he is fired, who should Baylor target?
- What do you want to see out of Baylor football?
