I'm not sure if this thread is necessary or not, but I was having a conversation with my Baylor fan text group this morning about the near impossible situation Dave Aranda faces this season and thought I'd share my thoughts here as well.
Before I start, let me state in no uncertain terms that this problem was self-inflicted -- Dave did it to himself by allowing our program to reach the depths he did. And our athletic administration exacerbated it by forcing him once again upon a fan base that is largely ready to move on without him. So if your first inclination is to point those things out, save yourself the effort. I agree. We all agree.
Now to the point of the thread and why lame duck seasons like this one are almost always a mistake.They put the sitting coach in a no-win season where even winning at a respectable level isn't enough to undo years of bad will.
I think under most circumstances, a 7-5 season at Baylor would be an acceptable result. Not a great one, but certainly not a fireable one. But because of Dave's past, I think we all agree that 7-5 this season shouldn't be enough to save his job. Whether it will or not is up for debate, but I think most of us are on the same page about whether it should be.
So what are we really doing here? Beyond lessening a contract buyout, is this not all kind of a waste of time? I actually like this year's roster and coaching staff and think this team can be pretty good in the Big 12. But I still think the most likely outcome is a 6-6 or 7-5 record. Which brings me back to the impossible situation Dave has created for himself.
We could show a lot of improvement, be a pretty good 7-5 team and actually strengthen our foundation going forward for a future with Dave Aranda at the helm. But it's a future almost no one wants at this point. So anything less than 10 wins -- a virtually impossible standard at this point in time -- is going to be met by most with disappointment.
And because we lost the Auburn game, we have no margin for error going forward, so every single game in Big 12 play is the Battle of Helm's Deep just to set up another existential battle the following week. And any single loss between now and our final three-game stretch against BYU, Tech and Houston will feel like the fall of Rohan.
I want to be able to enjoy this season, so I'm trying to set a reasonable standard of success with a firm threshold at 8-4. But that's lower than what many here hold due to the circumstances detailed above. I think we can afford one more loss between now and the BYU game to reach the standard I've set, but that's a tall order for any team in the Big 12 and it still wouldn't be enough for many to feel good about bringing Dave back for 2027.
This is why it's typically a bad idea to bring back a coach that most fans have already lost confidence in. Once you let things get bad enough, even reasonable success is viewed as failure, which isn't fair to the people around the head coach who don't carry the same baggage into the conversation.
I'm still hoping we shock the football world and have a great season. And if that saves Dave's job, so be it. But I, like most here, feel that Dave Aranda is more of an obstacle than an asset to our program's long-term success, which makes for a weird rooting experience.
Thus, the Dave Aranda problem.
Before I start, let me state in no uncertain terms that this problem was self-inflicted -- Dave did it to himself by allowing our program to reach the depths he did. And our athletic administration exacerbated it by forcing him once again upon a fan base that is largely ready to move on without him. So if your first inclination is to point those things out, save yourself the effort. I agree. We all agree.
Now to the point of the thread and why lame duck seasons like this one are almost always a mistake.They put the sitting coach in a no-win season where even winning at a respectable level isn't enough to undo years of bad will.
I think under most circumstances, a 7-5 season at Baylor would be an acceptable result. Not a great one, but certainly not a fireable one. But because of Dave's past, I think we all agree that 7-5 this season shouldn't be enough to save his job. Whether it will or not is up for debate, but I think most of us are on the same page about whether it should be.
So what are we really doing here? Beyond lessening a contract buyout, is this not all kind of a waste of time? I actually like this year's roster and coaching staff and think this team can be pretty good in the Big 12. But I still think the most likely outcome is a 6-6 or 7-5 record. Which brings me back to the impossible situation Dave has created for himself.
We could show a lot of improvement, be a pretty good 7-5 team and actually strengthen our foundation going forward for a future with Dave Aranda at the helm. But it's a future almost no one wants at this point. So anything less than 10 wins -- a virtually impossible standard at this point in time -- is going to be met by most with disappointment.
And because we lost the Auburn game, we have no margin for error going forward, so every single game in Big 12 play is the Battle of Helm's Deep just to set up another existential battle the following week. And any single loss between now and our final three-game stretch against BYU, Tech and Houston will feel like the fall of Rohan.
I want to be able to enjoy this season, so I'm trying to set a reasonable standard of success with a firm threshold at 8-4. But that's lower than what many here hold due to the circumstances detailed above. I think we can afford one more loss between now and the BYU game to reach the standard I've set, but that's a tall order for any team in the Big 12 and it still wouldn't be enough for many to feel good about bringing Dave back for 2027.
This is why it's typically a bad idea to bring back a coach that most fans have already lost confidence in. Once you let things get bad enough, even reasonable success is viewed as failure, which isn't fair to the people around the head coach who don't carry the same baggage into the conversation.
I'm still hoping we shock the football world and have a great season. And if that saves Dave's job, so be it. But I, like most here, feel that Dave Aranda is more of an obstacle than an asset to our program's long-term success, which makes for a weird rooting experience.
Thus, the Dave Aranda problem.
