(No I'm not high on bath salts)

The odds are against us. I'm not saying this is likely or that it's a decent chance...it's not. This is unlikely. But...there is a chance.

Some will say...just worry about Iowa St right now. Well...I'm not a player or coach...just a fan...so no harm to me in looking ahead.

If we catch lighting in a bottle and win out we would be very well positioned to potentially make the B12 Title game. With our schedule that is a huge "if"...but the opportunity is there.

The bad news is we lost 2 games to 2 of the weaker teams in the conference. The good news is those are losses against teams that we won't be in any head-to-head tie breaker scenarios with.

Winning out of course assumes beating BYU and TT which hands them their second loss (assuming they don't lose others) and a win over UH gives them 3 losses. That would give us tie-breaker wins over TT and UH.

With ISU upsetting Ok St tonight Ok St now has 2 losses and we would own the common conference opponent tie-breaker over them.

Now...if multiple teams finish in second place the tie-breaker scenarios get more confusing.

Let's see what happens. This may be a quick crash and burn...or we might be playing meaningful games late in November.

(Let me know if I didn't math right)

My man @ArmstrongSimms, always looking at the most positive sign to keep the faith. pic.twitter.com/kueC53tYXX

— David Smoak (@DavidSmoak) October 31, 2026

And Oklahoma State just lost.

Baylor is currently tied for 4th place in the Big XII, behind Utah, BYU, and Taco Tech, and tied with Arizona, Cougar High, and Oklahoma State.

If God likes practical jokes, who knows?

Beat Iowa State.

Put it on paper.

Here is the scenario generator but yes "all we have to do" is win the next 4 games

https://bball.notnothing.net/big12.php?sport=fb

BUATX2000 said:

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If Baylor wins out with the back half of this schedule, we deserve to be in the playoffs.

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Even if we accomplished that amazing feat, in all likelihood, we'd still have to win the B12 Championship Game to get into the CFP - thanks to those 2 losses to 2nd division TCU and KU. Had we split those 2 games there otherwise would prolly be a chance of not needing the conference title, especially if the championship game was at least competitive.

Baylor fans have been put through a tough period by keeping a failed HC. I blame our weak leadership. We just need to hope for a win next Saturday against Iowa State because the next 3 games will be very difficult. Let's hope for 6 wins and be grateful that finally Aranda is gone.

Once Aranda lands his next assistant coach job, can we PLEASE not have to endure endless updates on his efforts. Let him and his time at Baylor be forgotten. And to this administration, please learn from this failure.

Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

BearlyBeloved said:

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Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

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I don't think that is necessary. If both Arizona and Baylor win out and we are both 2 loss teams Baylor would hold the tiebreaker edge for record against shared conference opponents.

Buy your tickets now. We will be playing in the Big 12 Championship game.

BearlyBeloved said:

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Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

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Arizona won't even be a factor by the end of the year. You can go ahead and book them for at least one more loss and more likely 2 more losses.

boognish_bear said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

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I don't think that is necessary. If both Arizona and Baylor win out and we are both 2 loss teams Baylor would hold the tiebreaker edge for record against shared conference opponents.

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Not according to that prediction generator linked to above. Since we have no head to head with them we have tiebreaker problems unless AZ suffers a third conference loss.

They play TCU, Kansas State and Arizona State in their other remaining games and we cannot expect one of those to beat them. We need for the Utes to beat AZ.

BearlyBeloved said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

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I don't think that is necessary. If both Arizona and Baylor win out and we are both 2 loss teams Baylor would hold the tiebreaker edge for record against shared conference opponents.

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Not according to that prediction generator linked to above. Since we have no head to head with them we have tiebreaker problems unless AZ suffers a third conference loss.

They play TCU, Kansas State and Arizona State in their other remaining games and we cannot expect one of those to beat them. We need for the Utes to beat AZ.

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Our common conference opponents with Arizona by the end of the season will be:

BYU
ISU
TT
TCU
ASU

Assuming both teams win out it would be:

BU wins: BYU, ISU, TT, ASU
AZ wins: ISU, TCU, ASU

BU losses: TCU
AZ losses: BYU, TT

What am I missing here?

Glad there's not a Bowlsby involved.

ImABearToo said:

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Glad there's not a Bowlsby involved.

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Summon not the enemy of all that is good in college football.

boognish_bear said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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boognish_bear said:

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BearlyBeloved said:

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Utah must beat Arizona for Baylor to have a chance.

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I don't think that is necessary. If both Arizona and Baylor win out and we are both 2 loss teams Baylor would hold the tiebreaker edge for record against shared conference opponents.

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Not according to that prediction generator linked to above. Since we have no head to head with them we have tiebreaker problems unless AZ suffers a third conference loss.

They play TCU, Kansas State and Arizona State in their other remaining games and we cannot expect one of those to beat them. We need for the Utes to beat AZ.

---

Our common conference opponents with Arizona by the end of the season will be:

BYU
ISU
TT
TCU
ASU

Assuming both teams win out it would be:

BU wins: BYU, ISU, TT, ASU
AZ wins: ISU, TCU, ASU

BU losses: TCU
AZ losses: BYU, TT

What am I missing here?

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Go on that website and check the various scenarios. That is what I did. We don't have head to head with AZ and therefore have tiebreaker problems with the formulas if we both have 2 conference losses.

Ever occur to you, that the website made a mistake or two?

Yeah that website is some guy in his basement.

Not saying it's inaccurate but the official tie breaker order is:

Head to head. And when that doesn't apply the next is record against common opponents.

Oldbear83 said:

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Ever occur to you, that the website made a mistake or two?

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Of course that occurs to me. Just as posters here also make mistakes. For now, I stick by my statement that even if we win out (which would be fantastic), we need for Arizona to lose again and their game with Utah is their most-likely loss. Multi-team tiebreakers are always tricky. If we win out we will have head to head wins over everyone else that counts, EXCEPT Arizona. And unless Utah craters and loses to anyone but BYU.

Check the website and its tiebreaker explanations and see if you think they have it wrong. Argue with them, not with me.

Texas Tech, Utah and BYU could all finish in a 3 way tie at 8-1. If that happens Tech would lose the tie-breaker of winning % against common opponents due to the Cincy loss and would not qualify for the Big 12 Championship game. Tech fans need Utah to beat BYU this week.

— Raider Family 🦅🦅🌵#15to1 (@Raider_Family) November 1, 2026

If it ends up just Baylor and Arizona are in second place with two losses each I think we win that

If there are multiple teams in second place with two losses it gets a lot more confusing.

boognish_bear said:

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(No I'm not high on bath salts)

The odds are against us. I'm not saying this is likely or that it's a decent chance...it's not. This is unlikely. But...there is a chance.

Some will say...just worry about Iowa St right now. Well...I'm not a player or coach...just a fan...so no harm to me in looking ahead.

If we catch lighting in a bottle and win out we would be very well positioned to potentially make the B12 Title game. With our schedule that is a huge "if"...but the opportunity is there.

The bad news is we lost 2 games to 2 of the weaker teams in the conference. The good news is those are losses against teams that we won't be in any head-to-head tie breaker scenarios with.

Winning out of course assumes beating BYU and TT which hands them their second loss (assuming they don't lose others) and a win over UH gives them 3 losses. That would give us tie-breaker wins over TT and UH.

With ISU upsetting Ok St tonight Ok St now has 2 losses and we would own the common conference opponent tie-breaker over them.

Now...if multiple teams finish in second place the tie-breaker scenarios get more confusing.

Let's see what happens. This may be a quick crash and burn...or we might be playing meaningful games late in November.

(Let me know if I didn't math right)

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Just win.

We are in a better place than Charmin Dave

Baylor's chance to win out is about 3%, per ESPN's FPI.

If it does, it reaches the Big 12 title game about 79% of the time.

— Armstrong (@armstrongsimms) November 1, 2026

Space Cutter said:

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Baylor fans have been put through a tough period by keeping a failed HC. I blame our weak leadership. We just need to hope for a win next Saturday against Iowa State because the next 3 games will be very difficult. Let's hope for 6 wins and be grateful that finally Aranda is gone.

Once Aranda lands his next assistant coach job, can we PLEASE not have to endure endless updates on his efforts. Let him and his time at Baylor be forgotten. And to this administration, please learn from this failure.

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I don't know. UH, BYU and Tech all look beatable. They are all good teams with flaws.

Danielsjackson114 said:

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We are in a better place than Charmin Dave

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Might be. Let's not forget Mr. " I hate minorities" that Aranda won a Big 12 championship AND our only New Years Day bowl victory.

Klan is exciting. Still, it's a limited sample size

Mitch Blood Green said:

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Danielsjackson114 said:

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We are in a better place than Charmin Dave

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Might be. Let's not forget Mr. " I hate minorities" that Aranda won a Big 12 championship AND our only New Years Day bowl victory.

Klan is exciting. Still, it's a limited sample size

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True

Danielsjackson114 said:

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Mitch Blood Green said:

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Danielsjackson114 said:

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We are in a better place than Charmin Dave

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Might be. Let's not forget Mr. " I hate minorities" that Aranda won a Big 12 championship AND our only New Years Day bowl victory.

Klan is exciting. Still, it's a limited sample size

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True

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I hope he gets the job. I hope he shines and we've found a coach.

I hope Klandy wins out. I know it's a super long shot but that would be a fun ride the likes of which we've not been on in a long time! And the bonus would be that we found our new coach.

It feels great right now. But two or three games down the road we'll know a lot more.

But I really like Klandy as the face and voice of the program, for that alone. He'll need to check some other boxes the rest of the season, but I'm rather hoping he will be the guy at this point, for a few different reasons.

Probably against the odds, but I'm riding the wave right now.

Courtesy of Claude for this thread...

The one bad scenario needs all of these to happen:
[ol]

Arizona wins out: TCU, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona State

Texas Tech wins out except for Baylor: West Virginia, Oklahoma State and TCU

Utah loses only to Arizona

[/ol]
If Utah drops to 7-2

• If only Baylor and Utah finish 7-2, both make it, since a two-way tie for first sends both teams.
• If three or more teams finish 7-2, it becomes a larger tiebreaker that I'd work out once the results are known.

Rooting guide for Baylor fans (beyond winning out)

• TCU beats Texas Tech or Arizona. TCU plays both, so one win by TCU kills the only bad scenario. This is the single most useful result.
• Utah beats Arizona also eliminates Arizona.
• West Virginia or Oklahoma State beats Texas Tech works as well.

Bottom line: If Baylor wins its last four, it reaches the Big 12 title game in every scenario except one: Arizona and Texas Tech both run the table, Utah takes the top spot, and the three-way tiebreaker goes against Baylor because of its loss to TCU.