Timbear said:
Just so you know,
Baylor is ranked 45th, BYU 49th on Offense.
Baylor is ranked 17th, BYU 31th on Defense.
I'm just saying it should be competitive, with Baylor having a decent chance to win.
Ya I'm trusting Vegas here and giving us like a 30% chance to win in my mind. I just think they're run game is going to be a little bit more efficient than ours over the course of the game, which should give them a slight edge, on top of being at home where they rarely lose. I think they probably get 3.5 points from a better offensive line/jrun game and 3.5 points for playing at home. I would pick baylor at +2 turnovers and probably even at +1 turnovers.
We have to remember Baylor has had one of the easiest schedules of any P4 team so far. We haven't beaten anybody yet that's in the same league as BYU, but we also haven't played anyone like that with DJ healthy.
The weird thin about this season is that I think if DJ was healthy we would probably be 9-0 and Dave would have his job, but I still tend to think we would lose the last three. That scenario would have been kind of a nightmare for Doug.
[I know most people think we wouldn't beat TCU but let's run that back with DJ healthy and running the ball 15 times and tell me we don't score more points. I would bet we would win that 75% of the time. We lost that game on one play where our safety fell down and Dave's stupid decisions not to kick field goals that he constantly made.]