For the past 2 decades, the population base of the USA has steadily moved from the Northeast to the Midwest and South. In addition, the urbanization of the USA was in full swing.

Recent calculations show that the flood out of the Northeast is only growing in intensity. On the other hand, the move toward urbanization has somewhat come to a halt.

Urban office lease extensions are basically statistically non-existent even at favorable rates. Suburbs and smaller cities are seeing renewed life.

As "work from home" continues to grow, the short and long term impact on commercial office space is still hard to gauge. If "office time" moves to "once a week", how does that impact the viewpoints on acceptable commute?

Texas is looking at gaining 3 HOR congressional seats with the next census while California is looking at losing a seat for the first time. Florida continues to grow steadily. Connecticut remains at negative population numbers for the past decade.

What does the population in the USA look like in 2050?
What do cities like Waco look like in 2050?
What do cities like Dallas & Houston look like in 2050?
What does the suburban sprawl around DFW & Houston look like in 2050?

....and Asian.

What will things look like 30 years from now? I imagine the entire 35 corridor will appear to be on large city from North Dallas to SA. I dont mean sky scrapers all along the way. I mean pretty much what Austin through Bell County almost currently looks like. Hell come to think of it SA all the way through Temple already is about 85% of what I describe. Sort of Southern California region along the 5 looking.

The longer covid goes, the more urban to suburban or small city and even rural is going to shift. Census happened too early to pick up much of that, I imagine. Urban office space is going to be toast. Tight urban living is going to be in decline. Going to be a very interesting next 5-10 years.

Robert Wilson said:

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The longer covid goes, the more urban to suburban or small city and even rural is going to shift. Census happened too early to pick up much of that, I imagine. Urban office space is going to be toast. Tight urban living is going to be in decline. Going to be a very interesting next 5-10 years.

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don't think urban living with decline. I do agree its growth will slow. of course we may need to agree on a definition of urban living, lol.

bularry said:

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Robert Wilson said:

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The longer covid goes, the more urban to suburban or small city and even rural is going to shift. Census happened too early to pick up much of that, I imagine. Urban office space is going to be toast. Tight urban living is going to be in decline. Going to be a very interesting next 5-10 years.

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don't think urban living with decline. I do agree its growth will slow. of course we may need to agree on a definition of urban living, lol.

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Yeah, I was speaking broadly. I think the huge move back into the inner cities by people with money with slow down, and to some extent reverse. I've already seen some anecdotal examples of that. That doesn't mean urban populations will decline or even that regentrified areas will decline. I do think there will be people that realize they don't need to be in dense urban areas to do what they do, and some will begin to opt for more space and freedom enabled by technology. That will go along with office space in tall downtown buildings being in less demand.

We may soon be seeing an influx of immigration from Hong Kong as China clamps down on that formerly independent country.

Stranger said:

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We may soon be seeing an influx of immigration from Hong Kong as China clamps down on that formerly independent country.

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I would doubt it. The British are allowing anyone born during their rule to move to the UK so I'd imagine that most that leave will go there. There's only 7.5 million of them anyway so I doubt they make too much of an impact on US immigration.

I'd be cool trading a few million new freedom loving capitalists for the current crop of US hating socialist/communists.

BearlyHeardFrom said:

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I'd be cool trading a few million new freedom loving capitalists for the current crop of US hating socialist/communists.

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I always wonder who are these socialist people reference. Is it the millions of unemployed Americans that are happy to take that extra $600 they get for COVID? Just curious. I Hear socialist and communist talk a lot in the Bible Belt but I have yet to get any examples

Really? You don't watch the news? All the self-proclaimed socialists currently serving a Democratic House reps? Or the Antifa goons... Antifa being an organization with historically Communist roots?

A socialist is anyone who uses different government programs than I do.

Robert Wilson said:

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bularry said:

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Robert Wilson said:

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The longer covid goes, the more urban to suburban or small city and even rural is going to shift. Census happened too early to pick up much of that, I imagine. Urban office space is going to be toast. Tight urban living is going to be in decline. Going to be a very interesting next 5-10 years.

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don't think urban living with decline. I do agree its growth will slow. of course we may need to agree on a definition of urban living, lol.

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Yeah, I was speaking broadly. I think the huge move back into the inner cities by people with money with slow down, and to some extent reverse. I've already seen some anecdotal examples of that. That doesn't mean urban populations will decline or even that regentrified areas will decline. I do think there will be people that realize they don't need to be in dense urban areas to do what they do, and some will begin to opt for more space and freedom enabled by technology. That will go along with office space in tall downtown buildings being in less demand.

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your last sentence rings true to me. I've always been puzzled why more larger companies didn't follow the newest Exxon/Mobil model and build office campuses in suburban areas.

Living near work is a really nice benefit. But not many can really afford to live close if an office is in a central business district area. But you build an office near several large suburban communities, now you've got people who can live near work and commute easily. and are less likely to find a different job at the drop of a hat.

Of course now with the tele-communiting everyone is forced to undertake, the idea of living further from the office isn't so bad if there is a healthy "work from home" portion of each week.


Interesting times