One-n-Done Strategy Must Stop

4,321 Views | 57 Replies | Last: 9 mo ago by IowaBear
Bobby20
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I know most of you will try to cancel me for this, but the One-n-Done player recruiting/paying strategy MUST STOP. It's simply not Scott Drew, and it's not something that will ever take the Baylor program deep in the tourney again. Build a team.....A TEAM.......and you'll get again what we all saw in 2021.

Sic'em
Bearsalwayswin
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how did vj and rob wright make this team lose. i understand your sentiment but I also don't
OurOurs
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Bobby20 said:

I know most of you will try to cancel me for this



… Have you read the boards lately? Pretty much everyone agrees with what you said. The only caveat is that our opponent today proved that it's not wrong to have a good freshman or two.

Personally, I'm excited that we finally get one of our good freshman coming back next year. Sochan and Missi really scrambled things up by being way better than anticipated.
GruntTuff
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Cancel? What does that even mean? How do you get cancelled on a sports board unless you violate the rules?

It's not 2021 anymore.

Drew isn't a fool. He whiffed on the Duke transfer. He will learn but he's never going to recruit guys who don't fit into JOY and he's never going to have the money or fan support of other programs.

PapaBear2458
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I agree with that. Most people do feel that the one and done strategy is not best. The thing that killed us today was only having one big who got in foul trouble. Josh O's injury really hurt us but we should have had more than 2 big men who could play to begin with. Playing Duke in Raleigh also didn't help. I wish we would recruit more 4 stars who look like they will be around for a while and then maybe 1 5 star but not crazy about more than that. Having a 3 year plan when recruiting rather than a 1 year plan would be good. CSD has done a great job of developing assistant coaches who then become head coaches, but we need a couple of good new assistant coaches, especially one for the defensive side of the ball.
Midnight Rider
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A 3 year plan? You've got to be kidding. How in the hell can you have a 3 year plan when any player on the team at any time on the slightest whim can enter the transfer portal?
jsstewar
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VJ did not give our team very positive publicity? Come on.
DallasBear9902
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I think the one and done is mostly a dead end. Exceptional like Flagg exist.

Ironically, I think college basketball has evolved toward Drew 1.0 roster theories. A lot of rosters these days are constructed like the 2010 team. Super long, super athletic. With two guards. Not necessarily as skilled.

CSD has evolved the other way with three guard lineups and two front court players that are athletic. He's trading away defense for offense, but given the relative youth of our rosters with Freshmen, it comes at a price….

CSD has evolved. And he's won a title at our school. He'll deservedly be here for as long as he wants.
boognish_bear
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GruntTuff said:



Drew isn't a fool.




This is what gives me hope. He accomplished the biggest program turnaround in college basketball history.

The last 3 years have been frustrating...but I have full faith he will self reflect and make necessary strategy changes that fit the shifting dynamics of roster building in the age of NIL and the transfer portal.
chorne68
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You win with good players. One and done are part, sophomores are part and upper classmen are part. Get as many good players as you can.
TWD 1974
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DallasBear9902 said:

I think the one and done is mostly a dead end. Exceptional like Flagg exist.

Ironically, I think college basketball has evolved toward Drew 1.0 roster theories. A lot of rosters these days are constructed like the 2010 team. Super long, super athletic. With two guards. Not necessarily as skilled.

CSD has evolved the other way with three guard lineups and two front court players that are athletic. He's trading away defense for offense, but given the relative youth of our rosters with Freshmen, it comes at a price….

CSD has evolved. And he's won a title at our school. He'll deservedly be here for as long as he wants.
Really? Duke will have 3 Freshman drafted in the top 10. That dead end strategy kicked our butts today.

University of Houston, many folks favorite model against the one-n-done, is bringing in 3 potential one-n-done Freshman next year. I'm not sure everyone has gotten your memo.

There is no one size fits all idea for winning. We have won with a big team and a zone defense and a smaller team and 3 guard offense. Drew appears to me to have always looked to recruit the best talent than fit the culture and fit the offense/Defense to the talent on hand. It has worked well, though the past recruiting season was less than we wanted. We have a pretty much empty roster going into next year. Drew and company can recruit them, will we have the money commitment to get all the players we need remains the question in my mind. I know folks are going to say, "Money isn't the problem." But the NIL money is a moving target. It appears to have moved on us Last Summer, leaving us with roster gaps. Finally, when 2-3 people in the know are telling you money isn't the problem, you can usually bet that money is a problem. That said, as a man (who subsequently turned a small business into a $billion dollar one) told me, "There are no problems, only opportunities."
“No eye has seen, no ear has heard, and no mind has imagined what God has prepared for those who love Him.” 1 Corinthians 2:9
boykin_spaniel
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I've seen many agree with that sentiment. I'm not opposed to coaching more guys up vs rentals… but it's tough to get guys to stay in today's game.

Asemota and Dubravcic are two guys we're coaching up to hopefully be key cogs in a couple years. Let's say they play some solid spot minutes next year and look pretty good. If they feel that might be there ceiling here they could jump in the portal and go play for North Texas to get more guaranteed minutes.

Drew has created a very good culture so hopefully we don't lose many players to the portal but it's the nature of the game today. I'd like to get some portal guys 2-3 years of eligibility left but I also would never say to no to a guy like Omier. He really became the anchor of the team. Edgecome is a top 5 pick, hard to say no to a guy like that as well.
Stefano DiMera
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I don't care what classification they're in as long as they're tall...lean..and athletic..

The reason Jeremy Roach is here is because Scheyer sat him down and said Duke needs to get bigger at each position and they certainly did..
vanillabryce
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There are other schools who haven't relied on the one and done and are still underperforming. Looking at you, Kansas.

Older does not mean better. Roach or KJ Adams.

Better is better. We have to get better players - and our staff has to get guys who can play defense.
BUCANDOIT82
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We all know we needed a third big. The huge loss of Josh exposed that. This team went as far as it could. With a higher seed we don't face Duke at home with home cooking. But so many injuries on a thin team left us where we were. We went toe to toe with Duke until Orchad's third foul. Then the refs went in for the kill shot with the early fourth foul in the second half. Is what it was.
BUCANDOIT82
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We need more Basketball High IQ players, as in players who can pass.
TeamPlayer
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One and done is part of the greater problem of massive annual roster turnover.
Art_E_Guinn
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GruntTuff said:

Drew isn't a fool. He whiffed on the Duke transfer. He will learn but he's never going to recruit guys who don't fit into JOY and he's never going to have the money or fan support of other programs.
i'm sorry, but i don't believe that money is much of an issue for the basketball program. football? sure. but drew secured significant NIL resources after his flirtation with kentucky. guys like keyonte and VJ were not cheap. same with norchad and, unfortunately, we got hosed with the jeremy roach deal. just a terrible scouting job on our part.

the issue isn't money. it's been the switch in philosophy post-NCAA title. they were suddenly able to land 5-stars and ditched their old strategy of redshirting (difficult to do in 2025) and long-term player development focused on 3-star and 4-star HS talent.

the immediate eligibility for transfers also hurt the program because they were able to achieve massive improvements for players sitting out a year. it all started with udoh. they need to focus more on 4-star guys who will be in the system for several years. add younger transfers (e.g. flagler, mitchell, carr, etc.). each year, recruit at least1 guy willing to redshirt their freshman year.
DallasBear9902
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TWD 1974 said:

DallasBear9902 said:

I think the one and done is mostly a dead end. Exceptional like Flagg exist.

Ironically, I think college basketball has evolved toward Drew 1.0 roster theories. A lot of rosters these days are constructed like the 2010 team. Super long, super athletic. With two guards. Not necessarily as skilled.

CSD has evolved the other way with three guard lineups and two front court players that are athletic. He's trading away defense for offense, but given the relative youth of our rosters with Freshmen, it comes at a price….

CSD has evolved. And he's won a title at our school. He'll deservedly be here for as long as he wants.
Really? Duke will have 3 Freshman drafted in the top 10. That dead end strategy kicked our butts today.

University of Houston, many folks favorite model against the one-n-done, is bringing in 3 potential one-n-done Freshman next year. I'm not sure everyone has gotten your memo.

There is no one size fits all idea for winning. We have won with a big team and a zone defense and a smaller team and 3 guard offense. Drew appears to me to have always looked to recruit the best talent than fit the culture and fit the offense/Defense to the talent on hand. It has worked well, though the past recruiting season was less than we wanted. We have a pretty much empty roster going into next year. Drew and company can recruit them, will we have the money commitment to get all the players we need remains the question in my mind. I know folks are going to say, "Money isn't the problem." But the NIL money is a moving target. It appears to have moved on us Last Summer, leaving us with roster gaps. Finally, when 2-3 people in the know are telling you money isn't the problem, you can usually bet that money is a problem. That said, as a man (who subsequently turned a small business into a $billion dollar one) told me, "There are no problems, only opportunities."



In the past 15 years 2012 Kentucky and 2015 Duke are the only teams to put one and done freshmen in feature roles and win a national title. The 2012 Kentucky roster was similar to this year's Duke roster in that it had a generational college player in Anthony Davis. The 2015 Duke roster was interesting as Justise Winslow was the Freshmen that left while a couple of other talented freshmen featured on the 2015 team returned to school.

I *think* Justise Winslow is the last top ten draft pick who was a one and done to win a national title. To be fair, there have been one and dones who got really far in the tournament and went high in the draft. Jalen Suggs should be notable in that regard to people reading these boards. But I think we are to the point as a program where winning the whole thing is the focus. Not just deep runs.

Over the past five years especially, the trend has been for national championship rosters to get older. As others have mentioned, a big part of being a one and done is *potential combined with youth*. That is also a recipe for inexperience which is hard to overcome when you need to win six straight progressively harder basketball games. Not to mention the raw physical advantages a 23 year old will possess on average against a 19 year old.

Here is interesting analysis of roster ages for teams that have won titles.

https://sportshandle.com/freshman-or-senior-anatomy-of-ncaa-champions/

While possible to win a title with one and dones, I think the clear signal is that it adds a significant degree of difficulty to do it.
PaperBear89
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I'm an old fart, and naturally I hate NIL, the portal, and one and dones. But this is where we now live and it ain't going back.
Maybe try something a little different ... on the coaching staff. Rather than hiring a bunch of up and coming assistants, who come and go just like the players, start looking at some late career coaches who are tired of all the crap that is college sports today. Some just wanna coach ball and develop players (preferably quickly). Yes some of those players will leave us, but if we can ramp up/improve some of each year's roster by mid January that may work.
jsstewar
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I guess some people on this board would not take Cooper Flagg since he is probably a one and done.
bear2be2
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jsstewar said:

VJ did not give our team very positive publicity? Come on.
Who gives a **** about positive publicity? We're trying to win tournament games.

I appreciate the hell out of what VJ gave us this year on the court. He played a very unselfish team game, gave us all he had and elevated our team.

But even with him, this team was probably the worst we've had since 2019. And when he leaves this offseason, we'll be right back starting from scratch, trying to build around a freshman who is almost certainly going to be worse than him.

This cycle is getting old. I don't care how many of our guys get drafted or where. I'd much rather get to the Sweet 16 or beyond with no draft picks than continue this cycle of bragging about draft picks because we can't stand on our own results.
bear2be2
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TeamPlayer said:

One and done is part of the greater problem of massive annual roster turnover.
Exactly. It's not any of these players individually.

I loved Sochan, Missi, Edgecombe, Dennis and Omier -- all one-year players. But those guys -- like our more heralded one-and-dones (Brown, George, Walter and Roach) came and went, made first-weekend exits and left us scrambling for a complete roster overhaul the following year.

The teams that are winning in our conference -- and, not coincidentally, making deep tournament runs -- aren't turning their rosters over every season. It's just a fact.
Crawfoso1973
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Edge and Omier were terrific, as were RayJ and Missi last year and Sochan the year before. Our issue has been recruiting and building around our one and done guys the past 3 seasons. For whatever reason we have been dreadful at recruiting and developing role players the past several seasons. Which is ironic, because leading up to our Natty we were the very best at finding diamonds in the rough,developing them, and keeping them around. But I get it's harder in the NIL era to develop and keep players around when they can jump ship for immediate playing time elsewhere.
bear2be2
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Crawfoso1973 said:

Edge and Omier were terrific, as were RayJ and Missi last year and Sochan the year before. Our issue has been recruiting and building around our one and done guys the past 3 seasons. For whatever reason we have been dreadful at recruiting and developing role players the past several seasons. Which is ironic, because leading up to our Natty we were the very best at finding diamonds in the rough,developing them, and keeping them around. But I get it's harder in the NIL era to develop and keep players around when they can jump ship for immediate playing time elsewhere.
It hasn't been nearly as hard for Houston, Tech, Iowa State, Arizona, BYU, etc., which leads me to believe our strategy bears much of the blame.

We've either fallen too in love with one-year players or have completely lost the ability to retain and develop talent. Both speak poorly of the staff and its current direction.
IowaBear
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Bingo…. ISU is set to return 4 starters… again… this narrative is fake news. You can absolutely build roster continuity even in the NIL era. Drew is just choosing not too. Hopefully that changes
bear2be2
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IowaBear said:

Bingo…. ISU is set to return 4 starters… again… this narrative is fake news. You can absolutely build roster continuity even in the NIL era. Drew is just choosing not too. Hopefully that changes
And even Tech, for all the success it has had with transfers, starts three guys who have been in their program for at least two years.

I'm not asking for all four-year players. But you have to have some continuity. Teams grow together over time. And we don't even give our guys that opportunity anymore.

Toppin and Hawkins are great. But Tech wouldn't be where it is right now with out Williams, McMillian and Walton. Or Christian Anderson -- a non one-and-done freshman -- for that matter.
IowaBear
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And you just named B12 teams… look at the S16 teams that alone should be ample evidence to this narrative some on this board have tried to create. Purdue, Bama, Auburn, Tenn, Michigan St all returned tons of production from their 23/24 squads.
Drew constructs his rosters in a way where there's significant turnover every year. That's solely on him. If that strategy doesn't change BU is going to continue missing the 2nd weekend
GoodOleBaylorLine
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I think it is unfair to say Drew is choosing not to do so. Sochan should have been a multi-year player. Same with Missi. Love has been, but has been too hurt to make a difference. When he was drawing it up, I am guessing Drew was expecting those guys on future rosters. They didn't portal either, so it's not like it's an NIL issue with them.

I will give you this year was a weird roster with all the final year transfers into the program. But having said that, we are getting back Wright, Asemota and Josh O. I assume Love stays? And Carr, the Tenn transfer.
IowaBear
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Josh O is coming off a big time injury. And Langston won't stay healthy. Depending on either to be a big part of next year is a death knell. We're starting from scratch yet again.
bear2be2
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IowaBear said:

Josh O is coming off a big time injury. And Langston won't stay healthy. Depending on either to be a big part of next year is a death knell. We're starting from scratch yet again.
I think usage is a big part of this equation as well.

Like GoodOleBaylorLine pointed out, we've had some multi-year guys in our program, but almost all have either been really limited role players or too often injured to contribute in a major way.

In terms of production expectations, we put all of our eggs in the baskets of one-year players pretty much every year. It's not enough to recruit a two-year transfer or four-year project here and there and say you're a developmental program. You have to recruit multi-year players (be they freshmen or transfers) capable of taking the keys and driving occasionally.

We've done that with Wright, but he is the only such player we've recruited in the last four or five years -- other than Love, who unfortunately just can't stay healthy.

We can't keep giving all of our production responsibilities to players who are in and out of our program in one year. We have to mix in more Jared Butler and Rob Wright types who are excellent college players with limited NBA profiles to build our program around. These are the guys others in our league are winning big with right now.
PapaBear2458
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A lot of you have made excellent points above. I think a lot of the year on year turnover has come from unforeseen circumstances- injuries, some freshmen being better than initially thought, etc. But I think most everyone can agree that so much turnover year after year is not a good thing. I love the comment that we have to do a better job of developing role players- guys who do a lot of the dirty work and do it well, guys that can come off the bench and give the team a big lift. I love Scott Drew and the Baylor culture, but part of having a good culture has to do with having guys who love the program and are there for more than one year. Part of being a tough team is really buying into the program and giving yourself up for it. And there is no substitute for talent or height.
bear2be2
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PapaBear2458 said:

A lot of you have made excellent points above. I think a lot of the year on year turnover has come from unforeseen circumstances- injuries, some freshmen being better than initially thought, etc. But I think most everyone can agree that so much turnover year after year is not a good thing. I love the comment that we have to do a better job of developing role players- guys who do a lot of the dirty work and do it well, guys that can come off the bench and give the team a big lift. I love Scott Drew and the Baylor culture, but part of having a good culture has to do with having guys who love the program and are there for more than one year. Part of being a tough team is really buying into the program and giving yourself up for it. And there is no substitute for talent or height.
You've got to strike a balance between talent and culture. You can't win big with just one or the other.

But enough programs are striking that balance better than we are in the transfer portal/NIL era to say that we're lagging our direct competition.

Houston, especially, is putting us to shame right now.
boognish_bear
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Quinton
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I agree with you. I believe this has been the number 1 issue in addition to defensive development.

Our scouting has been really bad recently. Almost impossible not to hit on at least one but that's what happened. All while our competitors are batting what seems to be 1000 on guys similarly or even lesser rated.

Whiffed on several decently rated high school recruits too and kept them on the roster a year too long which destroyed continuity. Whiffed on pretty much every role guy since hitting on Jon and Flag.

Continuity around highly talented freshmen and transfers looks completely different if 3-4 of those guys ended up being solid players.
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